A couple of thoughts:

Some years back I was in this particular flypast; we knew we were in the 'right place' because we could feel the wake turbulence of the aircraft ahead of us. :eek:

Today - it looks as if the weather over London at the planned time of flypast was between BKN009 (EGLL) and OVC010 (EGLC). In my book that is a very good reason to cancel.

Safety Management, Risk Management, Threat Error Management or just plain Airmanship, call it what you will. To me, it takes bigger balls to cancel something like today than it takes to press-on. :D

Gentlemen,

I'm not a proffesional aviator, but having done a "few years " I always respected the maxim, if in doubt, there's no doubt ! This seems to be one of those occasions, when nature conspires to offer a challenge that precludes an easy (as usual) event. Whoever pulled the plug on the combined fly past must have judged it too risky to attempt, and should be respected for his decision, let's face it, the hissy fits so far displayed on this thread could have been predicted in his calculations. Let's just accept that the "management" of the fly past made a decision that might not have been popular, but may well have been sensible.

Smudge :ok:

Been a few years, but I think 16 aircraft and over needs around 1500ft.

I'm surprised that most of the dissenters appear to be very experienced aviators and yet could not appreciate the weather restrictions that would be in force, flying in formation over our Capital.

As an aside what's the gen for flying a single engine jet at 500' over central London or one of the BofB single engine a/c bearing in mind glide clear and all the rest of it? Are they supposed to make the Thames in case of a donk failure? If so what about traffic on the Thames which I seem to remember is a bit busy?

Not questioning for one second the skill and professionalism of our gallant troops by the way, just interested as a private aviator.

Queen's Birthday Flypast
 

When I did the QBF in 2006 we had no Harriers or regular Hawks because of single engine restrictions. The Reds and BBMF have special dispensation (signed off by someone very senior) but I don't know the exact details.
I don't know how they wangled it for the QDJ flypast to have 30 odd Hawks over London.
BV

Thames as you say. RAF is well aware of the risk of SE over London. Unfortunately, politicians tend to ignore such trivia.

Thanks Bob. I'm guessing they must have a contingency plan otherwise no one would sign them off, especially these days.

HT: Couldn't see where else they would go, I suppose you have a lot more energy for choices in a FJ (but still very little choice) but in a Hurricane I would be bricking it to put it mildly if the fan stopped. I think Buck Palace back garden would be my first thought if it went flying up the Mall.

BV

When we did the QDJ fly past it was over Windsor up the Long Walk to a parade square where Betty was watching the proceedings. One of the best days of my career to date! There was no over London transit. Well, not through the middle middle of it anyhow.

Guzz.

At least everyone got back home safe and sound. Having watched numerous birthday and other flypasts the Reds usually gets the biggest cheers.


Here's hoping its better weather next year when its Her 90th birthday.


V1

I was organising a flying competition that overlapped the assembly area, and was therefore affected by the RAT. We cancelled. I can vouch for the fact the weather was pants. 2000m, ovc 600?, RA/DZ. Was the right call.

But next year for her 90th, how many a/c will be mustered?!

I can paint some roundels on an Arrow if you want...

I'm sure Duxford and Old Warden could put something up as well.

Coff,you might remember he wore those at his wedding as a point of honour as he was on the active list. Maybe his is maintaining the same link unless his valet slipped up :)

If the web be accurate, he is a Royal Colonel of the Irish Guards, no Army air affiliate yet.

BV - It has been done. I was in the middle of a diamond 9 of Hawks over Horse Guards in 1990, for HM The Queen Mother, while the Reds were away on a tour of Russia.

Queen's Birthday Flypast
 

As a "dissenter", permit me the opportunity to reply.

I get where BV is coming from, really I do. However, I'm long time away from doing fun stuff and am now deeply engrained in the Strategic / Joint arena. I know now exactly what the conversation in work will be on Monday.

Regardless of the actual facts, the facts amongst the vast majority will be that a whole 31 aircraft were publicised and 9 showed up. Out of how many that we operate in NATO's 5th largest budget? The majority of those people, including amongst our sister services that rightly or wrongly we are about to do battle with in the SDSR, won't know or get the nuances of weather minimums, diversion requirements and the like.

They will just see an eye wateringly expensive Air Force as benefits are cut by £12bn and defence programmes are potentially to be slashed. In that context the real reason for scrubbing the fly past is but a tactical detail. Strategically, this was a bad day for the RAF as we run into the SDSR. I hate to say it but politics and spin are what matters for the next 6 months, and without a robust defence of the correct decision today has done us no favours.

Melchett,

The sainted lady's birthday bash isn't meant to be a demo of operational effectiveness, y'know.

Otherwise the RAF would just pop a brace of Paveways into Regents Park Mosque for effect and crate up a few Chinooks for dispatch by Russian charter flights to some far away country where they're not wanted. Meanwhile the RN would use HMS Ocean to run a water taxi service up the Thames for a few hundred illegal immigrants from Calais. :{

Cazalet,

You know that and I know that. But it was a high profile event with the potential to make a max rate turn into the murky world of MOD politics where common sense and the reality of the situation on the ground plays second fiddle to political agendas and inter-service rivalries. And that's what concerns me.

And as an illustration, you aren't the first I've heard suggesting that the RN starts a taxi service for Mediterranean migrants rather than fishing them out of the Med. I did say common sense doesn't always take primacy - see what we're up against?!!

What BV said (and very well).

I think that the armchair warriors complaining here would have had more to be concerned about had there been a massive formation low level weather abort into London TMA.... :ugh:

What happened to the old contingency plan?

'If wet, in the Town Hall'.

I read this thread with mounting incredulity!

The weather both at the far end (form up area) at this end (the dispersal area) was truly dog$hit all day - and the fact that it was marginally better over London was irrelevant.

A single formation is one thing; trying to form up a flypast involving vastly different types maintaining separation between elements is something entirely different - requiring good VMC.

If there are people at MoD making noises about the cancellation, they need to hang their heads in shame. Perhaps they've never been involved in this type of event?

In any case, the genpub won't even remember Saturday by the time Monday is here.

Years ago I was supposed to be involved in some flypast, but it didn't get beyond the stage of plotting the route - because the weather criteria had been decided by some helicopter person who had no concept of trying to fly large aircraft in formation at low level. Worse still, he wouldn't be told - until Group lost all confidence in his leadership and withdrew our participation...thankfully!

BV said it all - anyone muttering about the cancellation needs to wise up - and to STFU!