Cameron has already admitted there's a chance that Defence spending could well drop below the 2% threshold, most recently on the Andrew Marr show if the article in the Telegraph is correct

Defence won't win votes - so Cameron will keep on cutting - Telegraph

So, that's pretty much the first half of the SDSR done - once again the actual situation on the ground so to speak will be ignored in favour of arbitrary cuts. At least we know now, unlike last time where we all initially believed the title, that the SDSR actually stands for Slashing Defence Spending Religiously.

Seems like the only thing that remains to do now is decide which capabilities are for the chop. Should be able to have that done for June and then the politicians can get on with enjoying Wimbledon fortnight in peace if we're just going to ignore the intellectually difficult bit at the start :sad:

Posting this a couple of months after the last peak of activity on this thread. Much has happened in those months, and Dave, I think, is still rankled about Putin's comments about the UK being a small nation that no-one listens to anymore.

There has been some insightful discussion on SDR 15, very little of which I would disagree with. But would anyone care to change their bets at this stage?

I'd lay better odds on a decent Maritime Patrol investment.

Strategy: A thermonuclear deterrent only protects the homeland unless there are credible conventional forces to deploy. There aren't now (hence Putin's jibe), and the majority of the voters in the UK prioritise their own circumstances over any foreigners'. Hence, however it's presented, SDSR15 will be a further cut to conventional forces, since they are strategically ineffective anyway. The Reserve Forces can will be kicked another 5 years down the road. That won't work either because the UK job market has completely changed, but the poli's are out of ideas and cash.
The UK could maybe do a Falklands 'one-off', but any long term conflict is bound to be lost, as the last two have been. This is why Putin is in for the long haul in the Ukraine. He doesn't need to win in a month, and it's actually in his interests to take 3-4 years over it. It keeps it all below the level of being worth an attack on Russia.
The UK also now has no economic weight to throw about these days, so independent sanctions aren't an option either. How far the Saudis decide to open their supply valves has about 1,000x the effect of anything the UK can do.
Collaborative economic strategy is the one reason CMD wants to stay in the EU. Bush MkII treated the UK like a poodle, and Obama treats the UK like someone else's poodle, so the UK now only has its social worker calling it 'special'. But the EU, especially migration policy, is screwing the UK voter.....
Which brings us back to why SDSR15 is a cost-cutting exercise only.
New MPA? Friday Jokes thread for that suggestion.

Does anyone have access to or has read the "Sun exclusive" which reports Osborne has told Cameron Defence spending will be falling to less than 2% despite promises to maintain the Nato minimum.

The Sun

At least some Tories aren't happy with this

Rory speaks on Russia and UK defence spending - Rory Stewart

Geardown- embarrassed? Yes; but nothing will happen.

Unlike all the others then?

Maybe for P8s, but if you're looking for a more immediate fix and can't wait in the P8 queue, then it may be time to consider capability rather than platform and see what that throws up. Just some ideas off the top of my head:

Buy more MQ-9 / some MQ-9 Block 1+ or RQ-4N and park them at Kinloss & St Mawgan for specific MPA duties (can't see the Army being happy about the former, but security needs would have to take priority over inter-service whinging)

Look at alternative manned capabilities as a temporary fix. Aren't Lockheed trying to plug the re-introduction of the S-3 Viking? Didn't the Italians buy some ATR-72s as a stopgap measure?

Upgrade / re-role existing platforms. Convert Sentinel from a bespoke GMTI platform to a MMA platform. But this would be a relatively low tech solution and you would probably still need another platform to do the handle the more advanced and kinetic side of things.

I believe this last option is what will be touted as a solution under SDSR 15 given Philip Dunne's answer to the HoC on 23 Oct when asked about a life extension for Sentinel:

Whether this is a temporary fix to allow the Govt to say they are re-introducing an MPA capability I don't know, but this would only work if you also have the capability to do something about the threat other than just watching it sink your subs and carrier.

Melchie,

MQ-9, BAMS, ATR 72, Sentinel, E3D etc may be tweakable for an acceptable level of ASuW capability. However, non of the above can do the primary role of an MPA which is ASW.

The paperwork is in place to support the need to regain a national MPA capability but non of us really have a clue how the election/funding/SDSR 15 will pan out.

Fingers crossed for a bright MPA future!

Party Animal,

Agreed, but I just can't see how, in the current climate that we will ever regain the sort of MPA capability we once had and will probably - and unfortunately - have to rely on something that is acceptable at best rather than effective.

But even assuming we did get something, the next question would be where to put it! Given the recent history of closing down bases that are viewed as surplus to requirement, I frankly have no idea where you would put an MPA capability these days now that the Engineers are in Kinloss, and St Mawgan and Macrihanish have been sold off.

Best I stop there, the shear short sightedness of it all, as an island nation scrapping our MPA capability and flogging off all the suitable coastal airfields to bucket and spade operators making any sort of capability redevelopment even harder, is enough to make you cry :sad:

If we get something it will go to Waddington.

Not been to Waddington for a while ..... Just how much more space is left there? Can you really shoe horn another sqn in? And what's the transit time to the likely areas of operation? Doesn't really seem the optimal solution.

But if all eggs in one basket is now the accepted (insane) doctrine, then I guess Waddington is the place to go.

Just an assumption from my part but if Sentinel goes in 2018, that could leave room and a nice shiney sqn building. For live ops, the aircraft would FOB to Lossie or Brize......

Or even the Shetlands depending on the platform procured! :eek:

Melchett01 wrote: Given that Waddington used to be able to accommodate 4 Vulcan squadrons, each of 10 aeroplanes with a 5 man crew, would it really be a problem for a few P-8 or whatever to be based there? I don't know how many drones are based there at any one time, but they're not that much of an issue.

Or maybe move RAFAT to Leeming and base something else at Scampton?

Transit time to operating areas might be different matter though.... P-8 isn't probe-and-drogue compatible and the RAF doesn't have any boom-equipped tanker assets either, so extending time on task would be...interesting?

Perhaps they could hastily retrofit a probe onto the P-8 if it came into RAF service. Call it the P-8P?

it's not as if we're looking at huge numbers - probably 6 or so P8 (though there's been talk of as few as 4), possibly leased in the short term, and possibly combined with a slack handful of MQ-4C at some point.

incubus wrote: Or rather, "Dear Bubba Boeing. Here is a blank cheque. Fill it in with as many noughts as ye shall have need, then fit a probe to the half-dozen P-8s which the RAF can now just about afford".

A small flight of A310s obtained from whoever, modified to boom-only with 4 x ACTs, would probably be less expensive....:rolleyes:

I'd have thought Lossie would have been high on the list of MPA basing options?

There is no room at Lossiemouth, Waddington, Marham, Brize Norton or anywhere else for the necessary infrastructure to support an MPA fleet, there is no money to purchase or lease an MPA fleet, there is no desire to purchase or lease an MPA fleet, and once the independent deterrent is allowed to whither there will be no justification for purchasing or leasing an MPA fleet.

The defence of the nation is a crock of poo, only headline grabbing adventures abroad are of any interest to the current breed of politicians.

Spare me the bullsh*t...the level of cynisism from some of the retired-turned armchair generals on this forum is physically draining. Look around at current affairs; do you seriously consider your assertion that there is no desire for a mpa to be anything other than totally ill-informed nonsense??

No finance for it? Sure, make that argument if you want to, but take your turbo cynical view elsewhere

Bastardeux, exactly right.

Getting back into the MPA game is THE big decision of SDSR 15 (the nuclear deterrent piece is separate although naturally linked). There is no doubt that the military want it (by which I mean each individual service). It all comes down to money (which can always be found if necessary- irrespective of the state of national finances) which is ultimately controlled by elected officials who often have other considerations in their minds than what is needed.

Whilst I don't agree with kitbag that there's no appetite to reconstitute the MPA capability, especially in light of the very embarrassing public exposure of our capability gaps, I do think the point about lack of space on our remaining few operational airfields is very valid.

It's for that reason, combined with the general apathy towards Defence in general and defence depending in particular, that makes me think the politicians will try to do it on the cheap by re-rolling or developing existing capabilities to bolt on the MPA function. I could easily see any of Reaper, Sentinel or Shadow being tweaked to fulfil a basic FIND function, which no doubt would be acceptable to the politicians and enable them to say they were doing something about it, as well as being championed by the platform desks keen to preserve or grow their own bit of capability.

It wouldn't mean a huge infra bill as they look for somewhere to park new platforms, sqns, hangars and msn spt and could probably be done quicker than buying even off the shelf. The seed corn crews could be brought back and integrated into the existing sqns as the Maritime Flt of a MMA capability. Plus, any political uncertainty following the next election that will potentially hit the economy hard, as will a down turn in the 'recovery'. Don't forget, the 'recovery' has been in play for longer than most economic cycles and the commentators are already starting to look out for the next downturn which will likely limit defence spending even further.

All speculation on my part, and I hope I'm wrong and we do it properly first time round. I just can't see it happening with so many other competing demands and a Treasury that doesn't give a damn about the military and defence of the nation.

Bastardeux I think in the long term, as you grow up, you'll find cynicism wins out over naive optimism.

Not retired, still serving, yes I read the papers, so which caused more furore; the boat or the bombers? which is most recent in the public memory?

FWIW I believe we should regain the MPA capability, I think though that when DC,DM, NC or even NFor NB get told we MUST have it they're all going to say 'we managed for the last 5 years without it, why should I find an extra £2B or whatever?'

Total non starter.

BTW, Melchett, I guess from your comments re infra you haven't really met the brick wall that is the DIO?

Kitbag, I have - hence my comment.

Rather than having to go to DIO to convert or build new MPA sqn and msn spt buildings, extend messes etc, my point was that re-rolling an existing sqn into an MMA / MPA capability might be the best way of avoiding the buggeration and heartache of getting DIO involved if the buildings already existed.

Britain is becoming a friend who can't be trusted, says top US general
 

Well there's no sitting on the fence by Gen Odierno with those remarks is there.

Britain is becoming a friend who can't be trusted, says top US general - Telegraph

I wonder if anybody in Whitehall will take note? Probably not, too busy working out how much they can claim in allowances when they lose their seat at the election, or how they can use their position to drum up a second salary.

I'd suggest that what we really need is some sort of embarrassing defeat or loss of face to make them realise how bad things are, but we've tried that already with Iraq and Afghanistan, swiftly followed by letting Russian subs amble about the coast whilst ignoring Ukraine, and generating so few jets for Baltic policing and Shader that I'm sure I've got digits to spare when counting them. None of that catalogue of national disgrace seems to have done anymore than raise a ripple in the PM's morning coffee.:mad:

SDSR 15
 

Spare me the bullsh*t...the level of cynisism from some of the retired-turned armchair generals on this forum is physically draining.

Would certainly agree there is a lot of apathy out there on the forum...

Folks look is what happening.... a Cold War is enveloping again...!!! Recent events, well the warm up!

MPA is essential and despite what others may say it's coming back in one form or another, probably hurried along by the above.

Don't know who DM is supposed to be, but I'm pretty sure the actual thought among a huge cross-section of the political establishment is international humiliation...having to rely on other nations to protect our own waters!?

The rusi estimates that in the now-not-unfathomable situation the uk commits to 2% of GDP defence spending, there will be £75 billion more to spend over the coming decade than current planning assumptions of a 1% increase pa on equipment. How a MPA wouldn't be top of the list is incomprehensible to me.

One millipede is much like another.

There is still some time to go until the election, but so far pre election statements from politicians seem to include:

Freezing energy bills for 18 months.
Reducing tuition fees
Creating/guaranteeing apprenticeship places
Building 200,000/300,000/??? houses a year
A mansion tax
Immigration
Increasing personal tax thresholds
Deficit reductions
Protecting NHS and education spending
etc
etc

But no real mention of defence, in fact all I have seen was a comment on building the new Type 26 frigates, which is pretty much business as usual, and a couple of parties who are very anti a Trident replacement.

At the moment, DEFENCE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE IN THIS ELECTION.


Standing by to be corrected - hopefully politely please!

Nope, Defence isn't an issue. See this thread.
http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/5552...nt-matter.html

Pulse1

There are some signs that defence is nudging its way onto the agenda in the face of world events, but the govt is desperate for it to stay off it. For example:
David Cameron gags Top Brass | News | The Guardian [/URL]

Culdrose is slowly getting depopulated with aircraft. Once the Sea King finally goes there will be two very new and shiny hangars and squadron HQs empty, which will probably be filled with the rest of the Merlin force. This will leave B site empty.

Not sure of the runway lengths for P-8 or P-1 ops, but I've seen A320s, Nimrods and Globemasters all happily using it.

I added my own box labelled 'Defence' and ticked it.

BBC News - David Cameron dismisses concerns over UK defence cuts

aka "lalalalalalalalalalala - I'm not listening".

I'm sceptical as to how long he can last without coming to some sort of decision; good or bad...the majority of his backbenchers, POTUS, USCoS, defence select committee, NATO, CoDS etc, US Secretary of State, and the governments of every Baltic nation are applying pressure and waiting to hear the immediate direction of UK defence policy. Not to mention those interested in our long term defence posture. IMHO, this is a critical juncture in British history; does the UK choose to step back from world affairs comprehensively, or do we choose to take an active role (with appropriate funding!!!)?

However, to the best of my knowledge, the opposition, and other political parties, aren't using this issue to "attack" the government over. I'm not aware of Milliband making any political capital out of this, or any promises of something different under a future Labour government - which would indicate to me that they aren't very bothered about it.

Is my view as stated above correct, or have I just missed something?

http://www.pprune.org/military-aviat...ml#post8856739

Defence is not on the election radar (see similar post linked above). Some recent pronouncements seem to be attempts to make it so, but the public is not engaged, and judging by DC's dismissal, he does not want it to become so lest it distract him from winning votes by other means. More strong lobbying is sorely needed to highlight the extent to which we are being left exposed, and to try and engage the public.

I will attend a small local meeting with our (near-certain) new Conservative MP in a couple of weeks and will raise the issue, but don't really expect any support from other attendees who are likely to be concentrating on other day-to-day trials and tribulations. Frankly I expect I will be urinating directly into a strong headwind and my small voice will have no effect whatsoever, but hopefully there are more powerful voices who will speak up for doing the right thing and putting their country before self-interest.

LF

Has anybody else noticed that the line that has traditionally been trotted out by Cameron et al, namely that we have the fourth largest defence budget in the world, has been strangely absent of late?

Maybe it has something to do with this slipped in the middle of the BBC report:

Interesting. Very interesting, care to elaborate Mr Cameron?

As for:

Well how many strikes have we done in Syria? Ah that's right, none. We've just left that half of the problem to the other nations in the Coalition who are bombing Syria. Bit disingenuous to only consider the part of the problem that fits the narrative that all is fine eh?

And how do we stack up against say, ooh, the French? With their aircraft carrier now on station in the Gulf on top of their Mirages in Jordan. And their 816 troops in Lebanon which is also teetering on the brink right now, alongside a similar training mission to our own in Iraq. And somehow, they've also managed to find time to get involved in Ukrainian negotiations. And I won't even begin to look at how many troops they still have scattered across the map in Africa countering extremists there.

Maybe people are right, maybe they really don't give a damn about defence. Their bluster and BS at least used to be credible at one point, rather than being able to be pulled apart in 5 minutes. And to think it all started so promisingly with the announcement of a strategic review and the creation of a National Security Council. Wonder what their last big decision was - custard creams or bourbons?

At the moment there are probably less votes dependent on the defence budget than there are for the NHS or education budgets. The Tories are also protecting the foreign aid budget in order to show how different the are from the 1980 and 1990's vintage nasty Tory party. However as a result of protecting the NHS, education and foreign aid deeper cuts will be required elsewhere else including for example defence and the police. The trouble is every other party is pledging almost exactly the same policies.

Skydiver,

You're right, I can't argue with anything you've just said. Doesn't make it anymore palatable though. And that's what makes me so unspeakably angry about this whole scenario. We aren't asking for the moon on a stick, just enough to be able to do what we have been asked to do and to be able to do it properly.

I wonder who will get the blame when something goes 'bang' on a crowded shopping street, or we lose a Voyager on ops, or a 747 is brought down over a city or have a major strategic defeat on operations that humiliates us as a nation and does lasting damage to our strategic, political and therefore invariably our economic credibility. It won't the politicians fault that's for sure.

Edited to add as an after thought - I guess this all boils down to the fact that we as a nation just don't 'get' or do strategy. We read lots of books on it and quote lots of Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, but I really don't think we understand or believe what we read. If we did, we wouldn't be in this mess right now.

Public perception is now that we are out of Afghanistan and Iraq (yes, I know) so defence is not an issue. No politician is likely to commit ground forces to any more large ops until they have to by necessity as the public are fed up of it. We can continue to send Typhoons to intercept Russian bombers, events which will become less newsworthy and so will slip out of the public eye.

Retired generals, admirals and air marshals can continue to stamp their feet as much as they for all the good it will do, and the armed forces will slowly reduce in size until they are little more than a home defence force with an aircraft carrier to show the flag elsewhere, and a proportionate contribution to NATO's RRF. Which is fine as long as that is all they are there to do, but if any politician feels we should be playing world policeman, then he or she will have to divert resources and funding to the armed forces from elsewhere. Which will never happen until a Kilo-class surfaces next to the Palace of Westminster.

On which note, even a home defence force has to be able to watch over its own sea lanes.