Retention
 

Is it my imagination or is the RAF heading to a point where in 2015-18 pretty much every pilot with over six years experience will quit at the same time. Anyone who was on AFPS05 will have done their six years return of service and so be eligible to PVR and with no immediate pension to stay in for will head off to the airlines. Anyone who has reached their 38/16 point before April 1st 2015 will have no reason to stay in beyond that date and there will be a slow trickle of people leaving as they reach their 16 year points beyond 2015 who are just going to hang on to pick up what they can of their AFPS 75. In a very short space of time there will be no experience left, especially as PA Spine now seems to be a waste of time. (No additional real pension until you reach 68!)

Or am I missing something obvious.

1st rule of personnel beancounting - inexperienced people are cheap.

2nd rule of personnel beancounting - never hire clever or moral people: they threaten your job or create work for you.

There are no other rules. Performance in war or aircraft losses are someone else's budget.

Those considering leaving will discover the same applies in the jobs they are thinking of moving to.

Yes

I'm pretty certain I'm leaving at my 38/16 in Jan 2016. I'm also pretty certain a decent FRI wouldn't keep me in.

I've had a great time but I'm not prepared to gamble on the intervening years to my 44 point and will take a pension hit if I leave inbetween.

The ship is sinking.

Ray

Don't think so. I think it is Manning that are missing something obvious, and I don't think the problem of retention will only be restricted to Pilots. I say that as someone who is seeing a lot of the youngsters (particularly GD/WSO and WSOps) I used to fly with PVR'ing at what I assume for 'the system' is an alarming rate; if I was very cynical of course, perhaps you could argue that this was always part of the Master Plan to get the RAF numbers down below whatever the latest 'target' is ASAP.

I believe what started as a trickle is now turning into a serious flood. No doubt there is lots of hand-wringing going on among various members of the Air Force Board who are seeing the situation slip beyond their control at an alarming rate. All I can say to that is "You reap what you sow you completely clueless dickheads".

Standing by for the RAF to disappear up it's own arsehole!

The other problem is that they have made such a complete horlicks of the flying training pipeline in the past few years there is now also a dissenchanted bunch of late 20-somethings in the system (about 3 years worth). They won't need much p!ssing off to start looking elsewhere either!

Still, I reckon we will cope with more 'capability holidays'!!! :ugh:

LJ

I must admit the thought had crossed my mind with all of those choosing to depart, what would happen if that also included the core people shuffled off around the world to maintain currency experience on the likes of Maritime airborne operations. Carrier operations.. VTOL operations etc for the future hardware coming online..

Retention
 

I fear you're all correct (I said the same thing in a letter to manning when I refused PAS) but I think the reality is that no one will miss us once we've gone. The wheel will keep turning (no matter how wobbly) and those at the top will carry on blissfully unaware of the problem.
I'd love to see empirical figures to back up the feeling of a so called exodus though. I get the same impression but I wonder if its just that, as you get towards the twilight of your commission, so many of your 'generation' are leaving that it feels like an exodus. I must admit that the number of guys I know who intend to stay beyond 38 could be counted on one hand. By a teenage mutant ninja turtle (slightly obscure I know but I like to keep things light hearted whenever possible).
BV

Bob, you can get some statistics through DASA's website. A quick look at their outflow table here shows the following numbers for voluntary outflow of trained RAF officers:

FY09/10: 420
FY10/11: 440

12 month periods ending:

31 Mar 12: 680
30 Jun 12: 680
30 Sep 12: 730
31 Dec 12: 890
31 Mar 13: 780

That's an upward trend in my book. From 420 PVRs in FY09/10 to 780 in FY12/13. Measure from 2009 to 2012 and it's almost an exact doubling in the PVR rate.

Interestingly, it shows the VW numbers as well (voluntary outflow of untrained officers, it says here)

FY09/10: 40
FY10/11: 50

12 month periods ending:

31 Mar 12: 60
30 Jun 12: 60
30 Sep 12: 230
31 Dec 12: 230
31 Mar 13: 210

So only 40 untrained officers PVR'd or VW'd in FY09/10, rising to 210 in FY12/13! That's Leon's hacked off guys in the training system, I reckon.

Of course, these aren't aircrew specific, but with so many blunties on short service commissions and happily seeing them out, I imagine the vast majority of these stats are from aircrew.

P.S. Bob, did you receive any reply to or acknowledgement of your letter to manning when you rejected PAS, btw?

Retention
 

5F6B.
Of course not. I don't even know if anyone read it.
BV

And of course there will be the effects of the wonderful deal that is `NEM` to come.........

@zedder :D

@Bob I think the military 'top' are all too aware of the problem, but can't do much about it anymore; it's the politicians who are disconnected, and compare ambulance drivers to civil servants to soldiers to binmen. The difference I've always asserted is that the military has 'made do' and got on with it and not enjoyed union representation/negotiation of other govt cut targets, and the 'can do' may now bite the services in the ass when the spare has been spent earlier on. There was still some fat when I was in - the military loves projects and strategic spending - but it won't be until something very serious happens that a route and branch restructure is politically led, that sees, God forbid, the RAF generating aircraft with its resources properly aligned to do so, and starts to clear out all the detritus that has been caught up in its engines since the 90s. I hope nobody gets hurt in the process, but it might take just that sort of shock to embarrass the politicos into action - it normally does.

The Gp Capt giving our NEM brief acknowledged that it was actually cheaper to retain experienced and trained personnel than recruit new ones. However, whether that is actually put into practice is another thing entirely...

The trouble is that it's an ever-decreasing circle - initially, a few walk leaving those remaining to pick up the slack. Eventually they get miffed and walk leaving even fewer working much harder, who, of course get miffed or burnt out fairly quickly and leave or get signed off.

To break the chain, someone very senior needs to publicly recognise the problem, ease off the pedal and actually fight off the bean counters enough to improve things.

The thing that worries me is not the number of my generation leaving...we're all approaching our 38/16pts. The concerning thing is the number of 1st and 2nd tourists setting up to leaving in the very near future.

Of course, until they actually 'press the button' we don't have a problem though, right?

Which is a natural corollary of 22Gp having dumbed-down the previously excellent 2000TT/1500PIC military pilot accreditation scheme to a mere shadow of its former self. Some people were prepared to suck it up and put up with the rough and the smooth until they hit those magic figures; now that there's no such scheme, many see absolutely no point in staying in longer than the minimum engagement term - they'll simply waste potential airline seniority by staying in a moment longer.

Quelle effing surprise!

:mad:

And therein lies Manning's best hope - that people still in will hear stories of leavers getting hacked off on the outside, and deciding that maybe the Flying Circus isn't so bad after all.

Reminds me of an entry in the diary of a senior Luftwaffe staff officer when the going was getting really tough for the Germans, who wrote "Our only hope is that the General Staff of the enemy air force is as scatter-brained as ours!".

Scatter-brained may have been a euphemism, perhaps equally applicable to Manning in the modern situation...

Retention
 

BEagle.
There's a nail somewhere in your vicinity with a sore head!
BV

Couldn't be more correct BEagle, that is exactly what I'm seeing. The so called "accreditation" system is now so poor it is directly effecting retention, let's face it, if you have to spend £20k+ to get your licence it makes sense to get out early to make the investment worthwhile.

Add that to an erosion in the quality of service life, the (comparatively) rubbish new pension and the constant deployments to desert locations and you'll find a sizeable chunk of pilots approaching the end of their 6 year return of service have already made up their minds to hit the PVR button. And our leadership can't claim to be unaware, I've told them myself!

CAP 804 October 2013
 

CAP 804, the CAA's pilot licensing document, has now been re-released.

Predictably, there is no improvement in the abysmal levels of accreditation now available to military pilots. The only changes concern clarification of aircraft which may be used for skill tests.

But, all in all, it's still a complete crock of $hit and won't help retention one iota.

Sounds like they might need us to sign up again Beags!! Mind you I hope they can offer part time and a golf course on every station!!:ok:

If I may slightly misquote a more famous speech:

The exchequer entered this ministry under the rather childish delusion that they were going to cut everything and capability loss was not going to noticed. At various pay rounds, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naïve theory into operation. They sowed the wind and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.

This is a really interesting problem.
I'm a lifer, so really I will never step out of the gate without my ID but the day is coming where a lot of experience does and the training pipelineand breadth of new generation experience falls short of filling those gaps.

FRIs need to be given out now to retain people before the airline exodus.
The problem with FRIs from a finance point of view is that it costs a lot of money and, post FRI, you can never have any concrete proof that the people that have stayed have done so because of the FRI.

I think its time the RAF looked at some lower cost preemptive options rather than the costly FRI Hail Marys.
How about transitioning people to PA spine on offer and not making them wait to their 38 point. Wouldn't cost much and people would be progressing in pay and benefits. That would keep some people.
Perhaps also a way to give people their current gratuity as an advance with a tied in RoS. How many people do you know have left because the gratuity and pension make it financially stupid to stay.

Just some thoughts

Wides

Fri will be pointless. On any measure, anything less than 150k net and it still makes sense to leave.

Even more so now the young guys have had their pensions will and truly Rodgered.

Offering 80k gross will just nark people off more.

It is quite interesting from the outside looking in now. I left nearly 2 years ago now but am still involved, peripherally, as a reservist on the Herc (although I don't do as much as I should!!). I too was a lifer (or so I thought) and could never conceive of leaving the warm embrace of the RAF and entering the dull world of civil aviation. Having now done so however, part of me wishes I'd done it sooner...

Anyway, whenever I dust off the uniform and go back in I am consistently amazed/dismayed by the crushingly low levels of morale. People still seem to be keen and generally want to crack on and do the job but just seem to be being crushed by trivia, bureaucracy, change for change sake, "initiatives", huge uncertainty about the future and a lack of direction. I am constantly quizzed on the state of the airline market, what its like in the outside world, advice on licences etc etc. Now, maybe it's easier to spot the dissatisfaction now I'm not part of it but even so I do find it a rather disappointing state of affairs.

As I'm pretty much an outsider now I can't say what the cure is but I honestly don't believe that FRIs are the great panacea. FRIs in the current climate are simply an anaesthetic to temporarily take away the pain of the huge festering wound that is the current state of much of the RAF. The anaesthetic is nice thank you but the wound is still there and that pain relief can wear off quite quickly.

Rather than just chaff money at the problem the future of the RAF would be better served by stripping away the insufferable levels of niff naff and trivia that people are drowning under. I am constantly amazed by how my current employer, for whom safety, efficiency and profit are the absolute bottom line, can initiate change and development at the drop of a hat. If something is going to save us money and increase efficiency, it happens. The operational side (i.e. non-commercial side) of our HQ has a fraction of the people that it takes "run" Brize and yet it handles more flights (by a factor of 20) in a day than Brize does in a week. I've used this line many many times before (apologies) but it is so appropriate:

"I used to work for the military where we had 40 meetings a day and put 1 aircraft airborne a week. I now work for a company that puts 40 aircraft airborne a day and has one meeting a week."

Stop drowning your people in crap, strip away the unintelligible levels of bureaucracy that you have allowed to develop, make it so people actually want to go into work, just acknowledge that things are sub-par at the moment but at least try and offer a brighter future. Your people aren't stupid. Stop looking at ways to force them to stay and instead concentrate on making them want to stay in.

StopStart

Yep, that very much sums up the current situation.

and

Absolutely agree but I think it's too late. Perhaps a better option may be to re-arrange how we do business as aircrew in the RAF. Forget all the 38/16 crap and work on 9 years return of service as a planning figure. Train people, give them 6-7 years on a front-line aircraft without a break and expect them to leave at the end of it. Those that enjoy it and are good can chase the career or seek extensions. Those that go will be at the top of the flying tree and probably highly employable outside.

Of course the training system would have to be beefed up to cope with the much higher throughput of numbers but overall, it should be much more manageable and less subject to the boom and bust that commercial opportunites can present. You would probably have a better balance of experience on each sqn too.

The good news is that a certain very senior politician, at a speech at a recent charity dinner, stated that all we need to do is make the military much more like civilian businesses and make everyone in the military more productive! One wonders how? Does he mean we all need to drop more bombs or shoot more people? Perhaps he means that we should all work longer hours and spend less time on our personal lives. Yet our senior leadership still wonder why people are leaving!! :ugh:

VinRouge,

I've posted it before, but people need to remember that accepting a net £80k FRI right now will only plug the gap in your AFPS75 vs AFPS15 pension arrangements at 38/16. I'm sure that leaving at 38 would leave me short by around £100k compared to if my AFPS75 pension was honoured completely.

So if they want to make a serious difference to people, they'd need to be looking at well over £150k net, otherwise you're gaining nothing, just returning to the ToS you were on before AFPS15.

Hmmm, seems to be that from you bus drivers with mucho denarii that you are hitting the "this place sucks nards" point.

Any Erks and hammer wielders care to stick your tuppence worth in?
And by that I mean what used to be TG1 and 2 - the prime aicraft generators

coz, the perspective form the outside is you are all stampeding for the gate - the button on thy magic JPA (or whatever its called today) is worn out thru overuse and you are all mightily hacked off.

Outside is hard work at the moment - salaries are ****e, but there are lots of oppertunities, if you don't fancy the dicking around and endless routines to the sandpit then try your hand.

skillsets are tranferrable - the endless wiwol stories not so, unless you work for me and will provide the coffee while swinging the lamp and talking bollox....

if you think you are reaching a F**K this point do so, don't look back.
you will miss the banter unless you end up working with other ex mil who can take a joke.

would I go back - nope.

Would I go back?

To the RAF of 1973? Yes!
To the RAF of 1983? Yes!
To the RAF of 1993? Perhaps... But probably not.
To the RAF of 2003? Definitely not.
To the RAF of today? Definitely not.

The vexed question of FRI is really what does it buy the taxpayer? The problem that the Treasury has with these schemes is that

(i) You end up paying lots of cash to people who were going to stay anyway (dead weight costs)

(ii) Unless you have a proactive plan to fix the problem which has led to the need to use a FRI, then actually all it does is buy you (a relatively short amount of) time at which point you have to do it all again.

Sound familiar?

S41

I blame Mr Bett............anyone remember him and his report?:\

I too left the Herc force about one year ago, 23 years of service and enjoyed nearly all of it. Great people, job, places visited and what a laugh! Left on a high after a good final tour.

It's good to discuss the FRI question. I was selected for the lower stage 1 FRI back in 2003 (get this) while I was still in pilot training...

How does that make sense! There was no way I was going to walk back then.

Stoppers is right, it is the structure and management that needs to adapt and change.

An old crusty Sqn Ldr ALM (30 Sqn) once told me why he decided to leave early before his 55 pt, he said "it's like being nibbled to death by ducks".

I chose to leave at a time when it suited me, it was a difficult decision, manning only hindered me and the transition to a job outside takes hard work and persistence but it can be very rewarding. Most guys and gals serving would knock the socks off your average civvie. Think about it, if it suits; then go for it and you have very good chances of a successful career outside.

Beags

I reckon the rot really set in post Strategic Defence Review (SDR) '97, that would chime with your thoughts.

The rot and 'capability holidays' continued after this and the force now looks nothing like this for 2015!

LJ

I was reading an article on the MOD homepage in the past couple of days, where the senior chap being quoted - I forget who, but someone from Centre - possibly a senior civil servant - was genuinely proud of how the MOD had been transformed by slashing budgets and numbers of personnel. There seemed to be a genuine pride that the Services had shrunk as if the military were a business and we were simply overheads.

I know we often say that we couldn't 'do another Falklands' , but frankly, I don't think we could even 'do another Libya' these days. Whilst the high paid help are sitting in their ivory towers, full of self congratulation at slashing capability - let's not beat around the bush, redundancy = reduced capability - much of our recent 'success' as it is has come from our ability to surge when required. And we have been able to surge because a degree of 'spare' capacity has existed. We no longer have that 'spare' capacity, frankly as an institution, I often get the feeling that we are now struggling to get the basics done on a daily basis.

And it's only going to get worse. Just what is the irreducible minimum to guarantee a safe and effective air capability? And when did we pass that point? People are tired. People are pissed off. We just want it all to stop, to allow us time to recover and regenerate from 12 continuous years on active operations without interference from politicians chasing votes, VSOs chasing knighthoods and Civil Servants chasing paperwork. I don't think it's too dramatic to suggest that as an Air Force, it feels rather like the state of the Puma Force in 2006-8 but on a larger scale. And we all know how that one ended.

Sadly almost no amount of money the RAF could lay its hands on would make a difference. The huge number of tax free jobs opening up in 2014 for, albeit, a select few aircrew with QFI ticks means that any £150k - £300k FRI would barely touch the sides. The guys a gals will be making that sort of cash every 18-36 months. The only thing that would keep people is a return to the level of pride we all once felt in being part of this organisation. Sadly all I hear now from my fellow pilots is how ashamed they are to be part of it all. The crewroom chat is only about opportunities outside and 95% of the guys on the Sqn will be able to tell you to the exact day when their RoS is up and which day they need to exercise their option. Someone else further up has already mentioned this but my genuine best guess is that 30-40% of my Sqn will not be getting posted out but will be leaving by their own choice.

To those thinking of staying in - good luck but take the blinkers off and perhaps set you sights a little higher.

Making it harder for people to leave, in no way encourages them to stay....a point that is all too often lost on manning.

Im not sure there is an 'exodus' on the way, but the problem is that because of the continuous stream of cuts and redundancies etc over the last few years, we are now so small in some areas that if even a few people leave it will become a major problem for the Service.

For those that said a FRI will not work. Your are
A). Mad
B). Already left the raf with a nice pension.

If you were to offer us a huge pile of cash, I'm sure we would serve the minimum return of service to qualify for the payment. You do something for me and if the price is right, I'll do something for you.

As for not being able to afford it. We are not broke when we are giving away money to the Royal Bank of Scotland and when corporations like Starbucks and Amazon don't pay tax. You, sat at home reading this, pay more tax than a lot of multi billion £ corporations.

Perhaps, despite it all, we still like It. I certainly do. Its not like the 70s but who thought it would be?

Toadstool you keep watering that grass to keep it green buddy. Fortunately some else waters mine for me ;)

I don't have to water the grass. I still like it here, and I have enormous pride in serving. Call me anal...whatever. I appreciate its not like it was 30 years ago, but I still love flying and doing my job. Perhaps I shouldnt be on this forum.