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"I wouldn't put it past China to make a major move against either Japan or Australia,"
AUSTRALIA? The nearest point in Australia is 4000 kms from the closest point in China - that's going to be some move.......... especially when you have Indonesia in the way. Finland is closer to China than Australia is. When they want to pressure Australia they just stop buying coal, iron ore and wine |
When they want to pressure Australia they just stop buying coal, iron ore and wine |
Exactly my point, China needs trade partners, raw materials and global trade routes. They cannot afford to ruin relations.
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
(Post 11091758)
Exactly my point, China needs trade partners, raw materials and global trade routes. They cannot afford to ruin relations.
The China Xi is driving is quite willing to weaponize trade, secure in the knowledge that democracies don't fight back. China put 200% tariffs on Australian wine, to show displeasure. Australia failed to halt iron ore exports because it would be locally unpopular. I think China has a more effective strategy in these contests. |
secure in the knowledge that democracies don't fight back. Australia failed to halt iron ore exports because it would be locally unpopular. Exactly my point, China needs trade partners, raw materials and global trade routes. They cannot afford to ruin relations. |
Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 11091739)
You might want to pay a bit more attention to what is actually happening in the region. China stopped buying Australian wine since before covid. They also stopped buying barley, lobsters, beef and coal. What did Australia do? I will tell you what didn't happen and that was the country fell and to a heap and beg China for forgiveness. Other markets were found because that what happens with global trade. As for the iron ore, China needs it more than the political pressure stopping it would apply. As a matter of fact, with the price of iron ore, Australia is doing quite well out of Chinese trade bans.
Your country’s resoluteness in dealing with China is admired by many Canadians. The true cost of one’s principles is when it actually costs you something to have them. Our PM is feckless and a poseur and his words on any given subject are but wind. |
Don't know what this means but, despite China's trade sanctions, trade (both ways) continues to grow!
Australia's trade in goods with China in 2020 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au) 2019-2020: $150,488 / $80,876 (millions) export to China / imports from China 2018-2019: $134 / $78 2017-2018: $106 / $68 2016-2017: $95 / $61 2015-2016: $75 / $61 2014-2015: $75 / $57 |
In The Times this afternoon:-
Chinese military pilots step into the dark with night-time carrier landings China’s naval air force will expand its night-flying combat capabilities after a group of military instructors were certified to teach take-offs and landings on the country’s aircraft carriers after dark. Pilots who can take off from and land on a carrier at any time give greater combat flexibility. Until now, only pilots in the US, the UK, Russia and France had mastered it, but the Chinese are joining their ranks as President Xidemands the country build a military force that can rival other world powers. China is also building its own fleet of aircraft carriers. “The biggest challenge for night-time landing is the low visibility without any surrounding environment for reference,” a carrier aircraft landing commander told the PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army. “You can only rely on the deck lights for an accurate landing in a small deck landing area, which is a great test of the pilot’s skills and courage.” The PLA’s Naval Aviation University in the port city of Yantai has devised a group training programme with lectures, drills and simulations, according to the military newspaper. On a recent night, Wang Yong, an aviation instructor, successfully landed a J-15 fighter jet on the deck of the aircraft carrier Liaoning in the Bohai Sea in northern China, and then was followed by several other instructors. “The risk factor at night is many times higher than that for daytime landing,” Wang said. “It requires pilots not only to have excellent flying skills but also a strong heart and strong psychological qualities.” |
“The risk factor at night is many times higher than that for daytime landing,” Wang said. “It requires pilots not only to have excellent flying skills but also a strong heart and strong psychological qualities.”
You can say that again I think......... braver men and women than me for sure |
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CAS...ssile-silo-si/
PLA Likely Begins Construction of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Silo Site near Hanggin Banner By mid-May 2021, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) likely began construction of a potential intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo site in Hanggin Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia (approximately at 40.113, 108.104). Images taken by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission between 16 May and 9 August 2021 reveal a construction footprint similar to those found at known PLA ICBM silo construction sites at Jilantai, Guazhou (typically referred to as the Yumen site), and Hami….. A Sentinel-2 image taken on 9 August 2021 shows at least 29 possible silo construction sites. These 29 sites are divided across two areas- a northern and southern cluster. The northern cluster consists of at least 15 probable silo construction sites while the southern cluster consists of at least 14 probable sites. Of the 29 identified sites, 13 have dome shelters. Although these dome shelters are slightly different than those found at other known PLA ICBM silo construction sites, the general configuration of each construction site at Hanggin Banner matches known sites at other locations. The remaining sites are cleared of excess material with some sites having limited excavation activity similar to those found at other known silo construction sites. Assuming the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) will continue to deploy launchers in intervals of 6 or 12, this site will field a minimum of 30-36 silos. (A typical PLARF launch brigade consists of six launch battalions with typically one or two launchers per battalion for ICBMs.)…. Between the roughly 30 or more possible ICBM launchers at Hanggin Banner, conservative estimates on the number of launchers at the Hami and Guazhou ICBM silo sites, and the PLARF’s current force of operational ICBM brigades, the PLARF’s projected inventory of ground-based ICBM launchers is close to or more than the United States’ current number of deployed Minuteman III ICBMs. With the addition of at least two Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines as identified in the 2020 China Military Power Report and a conservative estimate of one brigade of 20 H-20 stealth bombers, China’s future inventory of strategic nuclear delivery systems seems on track to approaching parity with those of the United States and Russia…… |
Surprised its taken them so long to emulate American and Russian silo deployments
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11094329)
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CAS...ssile-silo-si/
PLA Likely Begins Construction of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Silo Site near Hanggin Banner By mid-May 2021, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) likely began construction of a potential intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo site in Hanggin Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia (approximately at 40.113, 108.104). Images taken by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission between 16 May and 9 August 2021 reveal a construction footprint similar to those found at known PLA ICBM silo construction sites at Jilantai, Guazhou (typically referred to as the Yumen site), and Hami….. A Sentinel-2 image taken on 9 August 2021 shows at least 29 possible silo construction sites. These 29 sites are divided across two areas- a northern and southern cluster. The northern cluster consists of at least 15 probable silo construction sites while the southern cluster consists of at least 14 probable sites. Of the 29 identified sites, 13 have dome shelters. Although these dome shelters are slightly different than those found at other known PLA ICBM silo construction sites, the general configuration of each construction site at Hanggin Banner matches known sites at other locations. The remaining sites are cleared of excess material with some sites having limited excavation activity similar to those found at other known silo construction sites. Assuming the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) will continue to deploy launchers in intervals of 6 or 12, this site will field a minimum of 30-36 silos. (A typical PLARF launch brigade consists of six launch battalions with typically one or two launchers per battalion for ICBMs.)…. Between the roughly 30 or more possible ICBM launchers at Hanggin Banner, conservative estimates on the number of launchers at the Hami and Guazhou ICBM silo sites, and the PLARF’s current force of operational ICBM brigades, the PLARF’s projected inventory of ground-based ICBM launchers is close to or more than the United States’ current number of deployed Minuteman III ICBMs. With the addition of at least two Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines as identified in the 2020 China Military Power Report and a conservative estimate of one brigade of 20 H-20 stealth bombers, China’s future inventory of strategic nuclear delivery systems seems on track to approaching parity with those of the United States and Russia…… They produce half the world's gross tonnage of shipping, far ahead of South Korea and Japan put together., but are just starting to gear up their military production machine. |
Because, with thermonuclear weapons, you reach a limit where any more just moves the dust and rocks around and there’s no point.
In fact any additional fallout and other effects tend to hurt you as much as much as your enemy - who in these days is also your customer. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11094713)
Because, with thermonuclear weapons, you reach a limit where any more just moves the dust and rocks around and there’s no point.
In fact any additional fallout and other effects tend to hurt you as much as much as your enemy - who in these days is also your customer. |
Originally Posted by etudiant
(Post 11094731)
Agree with that entirely, but the perception of greater strength has considerable influence.
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As I've pointed out before they have 15 -20 year window before the demographics catch up with their budget
A couple of hundred silo'd missiles really doesn't change the numbers very much - the West & Russia have lived in that situation for 60 years |
Australia is investing in Lockheed Martin's PrSMmissile. I'm guessing it will be one of the missiles in mind, for the domestic missile production capability being pursued by the Australian government.
Though debatable how resilient the FPDA in event of CCP aggression on the western fringes of the First Island Chain, the basing of shore based anti-ship missiles on Peninsula or Borneo Malaysia ( coupled with airpower and naval assets ) adds to the PLA's headaches in projecting naval forces so far from their own land based airpower. https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/...strike-missile |
IF, and its a big IF - the littoral states around the S China sea equip with medium range shore to ship missiles the S China Sea starts to look like a pretty desperate dead-end for any navy coming from the north. Shallow, lots of islands and reefs and only very narrow choke points to get out to the the south
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If? India is looking to sell Brahmos to Vietnam & the Phillipines. Killers of the PLA's little blue men ( fishing boat militia ) without more advanced capabilities in both the Philippine and Vietnamese militaries.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/m...21-7?r=US&IR=T |
In The Times:-
South Korea’s navy has unveiled the country’s first domestically built submarine that is capable of firing ballistic missiles into North Korea. South Korea’s navy has unveiled the country’s first domestically built submarine that is capable of firing ballistic missiles into North Korea. The commissioning of Dosan Ahn Chang-ho — named after an independence activist who was jailed five times by the Japanese — comes as tension rises in the region. Pyongyang has yet to agree to a denuclearisation plan while Beijing is upgrading its military hardware to catch up with the US. Pyongyang tested its first submarine-launched ballistic missiles in 2016. It is now developing nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines to revamp its outdated fleet. At a ceremony at the Okpo Shipyard, Rear Admiral Yang Yong-mo, the commander of South Korea’s submarine force, described the 84m-long diesel-electric boat as a strategic asset that “will firmly defend our seas.” It will be deployed after a year of sea trials, and two more boats are planned by 2023. The 3,000-tonne Dosan Ahn Chang-ho has a crew of 50, has six vertical missile launching tubes and can operate for 20 days without surfacing. Until now the country has relied on 1,200-tonne and 1,800-tonne submarines. One defence source told the South China Morning Post that the boat could in theory hit military bases in China but that Seoul had played this down to avoid irritating Beijing. Today South Korea and the US will begin their annual military exercises, which has drawn the usual condemnation from Pyongyang. In Beijing, Ri Ryong-nam, the North Korean ambassador to China, told the Global Times, a party newspaper, that the drills would be “unwelcome”. Pyongyang also marked the 76th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in the Second World War by seeking to strengthen its ties with Moscow. Kim Jong-un, the North’s leader, told President Putin that the friendship between the nations was “forged in blood in the struggle against the common enemy”. Putin replied that the countries “cherish the memory of the service personnel of the Red Army and Korean patriots who dedicated their lives to the freedom of Korea”. |
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