The Falklands / The Malvinas - (again?)
 

Is this just sabre rattling or do the Argentine government spot a significant weakness here?

Argentina to blockade Falkland waters in dispute over oil rights - Times Online

A couple of British Royal Navy submarines in the area should be enough to keep the Argentinians in port.

Just a little nudge from Argentina to see how a very distracted elsewhere (and broke) Brit gummit (and military) will react?

The same topic/scenario was posited quite recently here on another thread and some said "it'll never happen".

It would be VERY interesting to see (and, IMHO, very, very unlikely) if Mr Braun had the balls to "do a Belgrano" on a blockading warship to prove he's willing to do more than prevaricate and pontificate.

Perhaps the RAF could send a Nimrod or 2 to patrol the waters - and carrier-based naval Sea Harriers could protect them from any Argentine air threat....

Then there's always the RAF's long range bombing force if things get hot!


And then I woke up.....:ugh:

According to the BBC (YES I KNOW) the foreign office are playing this down and making overtures Hmm I seem to remember it was this sort of back scuttling that set the scene for the war in the first place.

It may be just sabre rattling but the threat is there. As we have a past with the Argies it should be taken seriously.I see this from a civvie point as I have been out of uniform for 20 years.But they will be well aware you guys and girls are over stretched.They know that major cutbacks are going to be made who ever gets in power.We no longer have the fleet we did to send South and the majority of heavy Helo support is in the Sandpit.The world economic situation is a basket case and those that have Oil could dictate to those that have not as this commodity gets less and less, especially as the largest resources are in the Middle East and in a constant potential war zone now that Iran has declared itself a Nuclear Power with all the problems that will entail such as sanctions (yet again)and the on-going threat of an Israeli strike.
But the essential points are we are under equipped,over stretched,under manned to fight on at least 2 fronts,don't have anything like the Naval power we did,have no long-range strike capability as the Vulcans have gone and MPA would be in range of the Argies and the tankers are tied up in other theatres. Gordy wouldn't do what Mrs. T did and may string it out until after the election in the near future(May 6) He hasn't got the bottle and then he can blame the new Government for doing nothing.Makes me think why he did a deal with the Libyans a few months ago for their Oil after we released the PanAm bomber.If the Argies did go the military route would there be really anything we could do? The cupboard is well and truly bare and any potential enemy is going to exploit that especially when it is so far from these shores.

How bare (or otherwise) is the Argentine cupboard, and do THEY have the capability or the forces to pull anything off? Bearing in mind how much worse their economic situation has been, for a significantly longer time.

BEagle.
Now you are awake, let me re assure you that we have plenty of assets to deal with this.
The government will tell you that the MOD has 1100 fixed wing and rotary aircraft. Now, as there are only a small fraction of those being used for Afghanistan, then there must be loads left for the Falklands!

Surely no government would be so devious to come up with a large figure such as this, to make the public believe we are stronger in the air than we actually are!
I mean, this figure cannot be mostly types like ATC gliders, UAS aircraft and trainers (with the BBMF and C130K's thrown in) can it?:E

On second thoughts, maybe you might need some hot coco before retiring tonight......To stop you having any more of your fanciful dreams

Perhaps we will shortly hear from Gen Richards on how he plans to thwart this threat. Regrettably, Cyclops01 hasn’t places us in a good position for this; mainly when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer.

I think you have all worked out that this isn’t a threat of a reinvasion but one of harassment of shipping. That could tip the balance between oil extraction being safe and profitable and it not. We are not overly well off for submarines just now and they are not particularly useful for this sort of operation. Think more ‘70s “cod war” and “OFFSHORE TAPESTRY” than Op CORPORATE.. Suitable uncommitted and manned surface ships are also not that abundant at the moment. Johnny Gaucho needs to do very little with very little to severely sod us about.

Interesting times.

I always knew there was reason to keep XH 558 flying. Do you think the MoD might consider being be it's new sponsor?

I will point out in passing that, politically, Kirchner is in a bad position due to the state of the economy, taxes, etc and, as with the Falklands War, it will be a vote winner. Militarily, Chavez has been pushing for robust regional action against UK/USA interests in the area and has previously volunteered military support if requested.

Yes, I think there are still a few Hastings around - but I doubt whether any are still serviceable.

Good job the RAF has got lots of Nimrods still, isn't it.....:hmm:??

I hope the answer is "Lot's of Chinooks" some time after 2015, cos otherwise we're stuffed.....

Ah, Sir Fred’s wonderliner. Regrettably, the only Hastings with reach we have now is called Max.

Indeed, Nimrods would be ideal for spotting and marking the bad buggers but fall rather into the “submarine” category with regard to projecting effect that’s not lethal. Also, could MPA support a couple (would 2 do it?) of Nimrods, the very important Tanker, the Herc and the Typhoons?

Uk Paranoia!!!
 

A guys, stop your nightmares about Argentine and Malvinas.

After the Malvinas war, the UK goberment and its American causins has blocked any weaponry sale to my country.

Our army forces are very, very weak at this moment. Nobody is thinking about going to war with UK.

First of all we don't have any landing ship for an invation (ARA San Antonio was scraped many years ago, the ARA Bahia Paraiso was sunk in the Antartic and the Icebreaker ARA Almirante Irizar was burned two years ago and it is in extensive repairs).

From our two Type 42 destroyers, ARA Santisima Trinidad was face out and use as spares for the other. The ARA Hercules was modified as command ship and its Sea Dart lunching capability was withdraw from her.

We have 4 Meko 360 Frigattes but without a credible antisubmarine detection and fighting capability. We have learned the ARA Belgrano leasson...

About your subs...don't be so confident...because we have two TR1700 and one 209...the last time all your fleet specialiaze in antisubmarine warefare couldn't catch a single 209...

But guys if you want to feed your bad dreams just take a look to these pictures...

Please resize the picture that was here before you post it again. Way too big.


http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/5556/am39sue.jpg


http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/325...lnticosur1.jpg

SWEET DREAMS...

Although using RAF aircraft is probably the easiest way to keep an eye on the Argentinians, it is not the only way*. Britain already has forces dedicated to
protecting assets in seaways, and they have a variety of ways to do this
(I'm not going very far on this, so no shouts of beadwindow please).
The above forces can make good use of our subs, and tend to be robust in their
attitude (probably no i-pods on board lol).
That said, I feel that Gordon Browne would not even consider using them, and
would just about let the Argies have or do anything they want.
If Margaret Thatcher's attitude was described as 'over my dead body' then Mr
Browne's may be more akin to 'chuck me a few quid and it's yours'.

*Luckily, as all the good stuff for this is being scrapped/sold as quick as possible:(

Edited to add: I typed this before seeing cosmiccomet's post, which seems to possibly be celebrating the sinking of civilian shipping.

If the Royal Navy can't stop a few East African pirates in wooden boats what chance do they have of protecting our interests around the Falklands/malvinas? :rolleyes:

"SWEET DREAMS... "

amusing caption for a picture claiming you hit HMS Invincible!


The Argentine Government isn't interested in reclaiming the islands, this is yet more tubthumping for domestic consumption nothing more!

Noo thats not a hit, its the proposed budget cuts..... :p

Dear Barnstormer,
I have to correct you about your comments about the Atlantic Conveyor sinking.
That was a civil merchant ship commissioned by the British Government to transport
Supplies to help the landing campaign during the war.
It was loaded with military supplies. You can see many pictures of the ship sailing to the South Atlantic
with its deck full of Chinooks, Wessex and even Sea Harriers. So it was a military target.
The SHR were ferried shortly before the attack that’s why she was sailing very close to the
HMS Hermes.
You cannot blame the Argentine Navy Pilots for attacking her. They couldn’t distinguished between
war ships and supply ships in their screens.
The AM39 Exocet were lunch against the biggest target and they were deviated by the UK electronic countermeasures. But the missiles reacquired another target which was the Atlantic Conveyor.
We can talk about other civil merchant ships commissioned by one of the belligerent governments.
The Narwal was a fishing ship used by the Argentine Navy for electronic warfare and she was strafed run and sunk by two Sea Harriers.
The ARA Isla de los Estados was a merchant transport ship used by the navy to transport supplies for the Argentinean troops in Port Howard and Darwin.
She was catched by the HMS Alacrity and sunk using her cannon. Only two sailors survived to the sinking.
Moreover, the HMS UGANDA was targeted by five Skyhawk A4B on the 28th but the formation commander ordered to abort the attack after seeing the red crosses.
About the HMS Invincible attack, you have your story and we have our.
We have to wait until the British government discloses the secret information about that matter.
Until that happens I will believe what my pilots tell about that attack.
I would like to express my deeply sorry and respect for all your loses.

But I would like also to stress that my government and all the Argentinian Republic is not going to stop claiming its rights over those islands.

It is a state policy written with the blood of our people.

At current oil prices there are, possibly, up to $4 trillion in oil reserves under the water about the Falkland Islands. That has to be tempting for anybody, not least a country that continues to trumpet its claim to sovereignty despite getting a bloody nose last time they tried. But they tried because they perceived (rightly) that the UK Government wasn't interested and with planned cutbacks wouldn't be able to do anything about it. With the upcoming SDR and our boots on the ground/ COIN emphasis who knows.....?

Perhaps Gordon B/ Dave might like to consider their 'share' of that $4 trillion (in taxation) & keep just a bit of the deep water Navy & a few fixed wing aircraft, just in case.

As we have built a nice long runway at MPA, the one thing the Argies lacked in '82, it's not an option to recapture the islands, we have to deter them from attempting anything (a couple of C130s & some SF troops would be enough to capture the airfield Entebbe style).

cosmiccomet.

Sorry but your pilots got this one wrong.

The Germans awarded themselves a lot of medals in WW11 for sinking the Ark Royal five times in total!

Take heart though. la Muerta Negra suffered an early death at the hands of la Numpty Brown.

cosmiccomet.
No need to correct anything at all thanks:)
I know the circumstances about the Atlantic Conveyor (even having family members working on her to get her ready for the voyage). Your account is correct, but the ship was still a civilian ship.
As for:
You cannot blame the Argentine Navy Pilots for attacking her. They couldn’t distinguished between
war ships and supply ships in their screens.
I suppose its just as well they did not sink the hospital ship too then:E

I do not celebrate the death of either side, and know full well that many of your countries soldiers felt utterly forgotten by the public, and that many in Argentina were much more interested in the world cup, than the conflict.

"my government and all the Argentinian Republic is not going to stop claiming its rights over those islands.

It is a state policy written with the blood of our people."

Nice rhetoric, but unjustifiable, offensive and empty posturing.

Argentina has NO legitimate claim over the Falklands, whose population are:

61.3% Falkland Islander
29.0% British
2.6% Spaniard
0.6% Japanese
6.5% Chilean & Other

Have you heard of self determination?

Or is it on some other basis?

Occupation/control
France 1764-66
Britain 1775-1770, 1771-1776, 1833-date
Spain 1766-1811
Argentina 1828-1833

Sovereignty
Spain 1811-1820
Argentina 1820-1833
Britain 1833-date

Proximity
The Falklands are 300 miles from mainland Argentina – almost the whole of Uruguay lies closer to Buenos Aires than the Falklands are to Argentina. Do you claim Uruguay on the same basis? And Chile perhaps?

Chaps, it’s rather pointless having a personal go at cosmiccomet. Perhaps commendably on a predominantly British forum, he is simply expressing the views of an Argentinean. His Government, whether he supports it or not has stated its belief on every occasion that the Islands are theirs. That is something we will have to agree to disagree on, like gentlemen.

There is also no point in quibbling about what were civilian ships and what weren’t. Our merchant ships taken from trade were “militarised”, albeit unarmed. I had a busy Summer destoring and materially demilitarising the Portsmouth/Southampton ones. I had a busy Spring doing the opposite for some of them.

International Law - UNCLOSIII
 

Perhaps there might be someone with a bit of International Constitutional Law background lurking on this thread who could give an opinion, but I have a feeling that the Argentine Government may be breaching the intent of the 'right of innocent passage' (Art 16(4) Convention on the Territorial Sea 1958, et seq); and Art 27(1) of UNCLOS III 1982 which circumscribes the criminal jursidiction of the coastal state in respect of foreign vessels passing through their waters.

There are several famous IL cases which have almost led to fisticuffs over the right of innocent passage - Argentina should be extremely careful in placing arbitrary restrictions on vessels transiting through their waters; if the matter were to go to arbitration at the ICJ (The Hague) it could prove to be very, very expensive for the defending State.

WP

I've met and worked with many Argentineans and the fact is that they have never got over getting a smacked arse in '82. Best not to feed them on here... they have an answer (usually shouted or typed in caps) to everything.

Metman , my niece, who lives in Buenos Aires is home in the UK at the moment. She tells me there are food shortages, including, horror of horror, a beef shortage, which is not going down well among the enthusiastically carnivorous population. One of the reasons for the invasion last time was to distract attention from a worsening domestic situation under the Galtieri regime. If things really are getting bad, maybe the present authorities may think its worth trying again.

I guess the difference in 1982 was a large conscripted and funded military, with a military junta in charge. Now they have a democratic government, but I'm not sure whether they still have a conscripted military (I thought it was professional now?), and I'm guessing its nowhere near as well funded as it was in the early 80s, and not a lot of money to play with either? There might be a will, but not a way for them.

Whereas with the UK government, you wonder whether there is a will OR a way to do anything about it!

D O Geurrero
(and sorry for thread drift again)
IMHO the memory of the war splits the nation for two different reasons.
There is the political ambition over the islands, which can be laid in the lap of the politicos, rather than the general public. Then there is the very deep sore of the way officers/NCO's treated some of their men during the war. This cuts deep all these years after, with two opposing camps: Those who wish to forget and move on; and those pushing for justice for their family members (or former members).
The latter group seem to crop up on radio 4 occasionally, and I must admit it is a rare thing for modern countries to be pushing for a witch hunt against their own military.

Does anyone think there is anything to stop the RN testing a TLAM (on telly, obviously) any time soon?

Also, there was a T42 retired recently - another opportunity for a televised bang?

After all, Iran and NK do it all the time...

This is of course a very good prelude to the SDR, which will need to consider where the UK goes over the next 10-20 years. This is a clear example of what future conflicts will be about...resources! It is not only the Falklands but South Georgia, South Sandwich, Ascension, Diego Garcia, Tristan da Cunha and most importantly, British Antarctic Territory. Whislt the former are all recognised in international law as British Dependencies, Antarctica is not and BAT is also claimed by at least 3 other nations. The country with a closely located deep water port, airfield, maritime and air capability will control these areas. We have seen already the posturing of Russia in the Arctic and it will be even worse dahn sarf! If we are to retain the rights to the fish, minerals and oil of all these little bits of the world, fought so hard for, over the last few centuries, then we must have a strong, global military or someone else will take them. We must not sell off the crown jewels. To cut now would be the very worst thing to do, because the economy of this country (UK) will very much depend on these outposts in decades to come.

We must have carriers with the aircraft to operate off them, we must have strategic transport including heavy lift, we must have world class aircraft able to exercise air supremacy and the ability to put boots on the ground with the capability to hold that territory.

True, but unfortunately our politicians are only interested in the now.

Hmm, looks like an RN CVF mafia wind-up.... :E

Widger - yes, it is important for SDR to deal with these things; but given the scale of the likely budget squeeze and the cost of the RN's latest warships - T45 may be able to intercept cricket balls at M3.0, which, whilst useful against the Aussie pace attack next winter, is too expensive at £1bn / pop to be bought in sufficient numbers to actually do the job.

The real issues for the SDR is national ambition and actual capability requirements (as opposed to capability aspirations). I can't think of many line RN N3 types who'd prefer 6 x T45 vs 9 x Horizon for the same cash. Less capable, but quantity does have a quality all it's own.

S41

PS. So bets on how much BAES / NAMA / Eurofighter will charge for a quick and dirty integration of surplus Harpoon onto 1435 Flt's jets then? :cool:

My dear British friends,

It is not fair to blame my people of being interested in the Football world cup in 82.
The british people was also very interested and I don't thing that if your IRON Lady didn't take the decision of retaken the island nobody was gonna go to the street to bother about it.

Talking about the self determination. Your government also didn't take the self determination of the Argentine governor and its people who were living in the islands up to 1833. They were ship back to the Argentine continent...

My government has always respected the self determination of any inmigrant whichever country came from.
You can not find any complain about british citizens living in Argentina.
Moreover, during the 2WW many of the british sons who were born in my country went to Europe to fight for the Allies.
And the ones who survived returned to Argentina to continue their lifes.

So guys, don't look so badly to my country, we are not the best but neither you.

Well, if it did all kick off again, at least we haven't let the capability go.

The carriers are still about:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...280/Hermes.jpg

Hmm, OK, so it's in India.

Well, there's always Vince:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...r280/Vince.jpg

Although she looks a lot like a museum ship these days.

I suppose the troops could use Canberra again:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...59953-gbvc.jpg

And the equipment could go on Fearless:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...0/Fearless.jpg

Or Intrepid:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...pidarrival.jpg

Still, the Navy have kept up with their fixed wing aircraft:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9..._Charlwood.jpg

Helicopters not looking so great though:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...er280/Wasp.jpg

It's not like they needed quite so many RNAS's:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...0/Portland.jpg

Even so, the Navy used some nuclear subs last time, they still have those!

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...er280/Subs.jpg

Vulcans are a bit thin on the ground these days:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...0/IMG_1702.jpg

That's OK though, no tankers to support them:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...ham-060405.jpg

All of which is a good thing, because if there were any casualties, they've done this to the Military Hospitals:

http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j9...ter280/CMH.jpg

It wasn't even 30 years ago.

Roadster,

a long time since I have seen such a thought provoking thread on here.

MGD

A wicked case of history repeating. We don't learn very much from previous mistakes and experiences.

Very thought provoking indeed, Roadster, I have to agree with MGD. Fingers crossed the corned-beef monkeys will not do anything daft.

Thought provoking, yes, but capability lost?

Nope, we've got a lot of better kit these days:

http://www.raf.mod.uk/no1group/rafcm...DFF71FA0F5.jpg
Typhoon at MPA

A decent amphib warfare ship:

http://www.defencetalk.com/pictures/...ean_L12_02.jpg
HMS Ocean

A small amount of Naval Air GR9s

http://www.warshipsifr.com/media/ark.jpg

A few Type 45s

http://www.frimleycc.co.uk/HMS%20Dar...045_medium.jpg
HMS Daring

Sub launched TLAM - better than 21 dumb bombs from medium level and a gazillion tankers!

http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/upload/img/Tomahawk2.jpg

The Queen Elizabeth and load of other gin palaces (it's big business for Cunard et al at present!):

http://news.holidayhypermarket.co.uk...ssel_large.jpg

All right - you got me on the Hospitals! :(

Don't forget that the Argies have a lot less now than they had then.

Of course, there would need to be a pause in the sand-pit for a bit though!

LJ

What was the Typhoon doing in Ascension? Transit South?