RAF Meltdown - Has it begun?
 

Over several months now, I have heard many rumours that a large amount of RAF personnel are/were sitting on their PVRs just waiting (perhaps for the recent redundancy announcement). I’ve also heard (albeit over a beer, about a friend of a friend who knows someone else), who is having trouble confirming his out date after submitting such a request. He actually wants to go that little bit earlier than his 12 month waiting time, but the excuse being given is that since the redundancy announcement date, some 700+ SNCOs have PVR’d and the authorities are snowed under! If that is true, I wonder what the official PVR figure is for the whole Air Force since the announcement, not just the SNCOs. Are we in danger of meltdown, and as a consequence, could others be offered extention of service in order to cover the mass exodus?

Anyone else heard such stories?

Still the Airforce could fill all the gaps with C grade candidates off the PSL.

Surely things couldn’t get that bad. !!!!!!!!!!! :oh:

If that were the case, would any one in their right mind want to extend? If you think it's bad now with overstretch, think what it would be like for those left behind trying to cover several hundred extra gapped posts - you don't for one minute think they would bring more people in to cover the gaps do you?

The last AFPRB was very concerned about recruitment and retention specifically in the RAF. The light blues turned in the worst figures, even though they were masked by drawdown. If this rumour is true, it would appear that the writing was already on the wall.

Chox,

I'm sure a direct question to PMA under the FoI Act will provide you with a specific answer for the PVR question.

WC

'Still the Airforce could fill all the gaps with C grade candidates off the PSL.

Surely things couldn’t get that bad. !!!!!!!!!!! '

Well actually.. Not a c grade but I know a chap who has been given the nod on getting his third despite in his last 5 appraisals having had two likely to become fits- I know because I wrote them! (I didnt write the rest). Not so long ago you wouldnt get looked at until you had a full portfolio of positive, usually high recommendations. I have seen many getting picked up already who are dubious to say the least. He is also nearly 3 stone overweight but that is another thread

Begun? you are having a laugh aren't you? meltdown well in progress! I think we will grind to a halt within five years.

The AFPRB said that there are 40 specific manning ares that are in a shortfall. They include areas such as Operations, Aircrew, Engineering Admin and other trade groups so I guess that about covers the whole of the RAF.

just waiting
 

How many more of us are just putting up with it all, because we've only got a few years before our pension?
Do you think they have factored that number into their big sums?
I wonder what the FRI will look like when they do realise?
Will it be enough to encourage us to sign on......?
It would have to be a :mad: big number.......

I refer the gentleman to the answer I gave earlier......


http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=247209

Anecdotal evidence of PVR rates is way above the 4-5% quoted by PMA, and that is only one side of the story, how many are leaving at option points. In one unit I know of 60% of the Sgts are leaving in the next year!

There are ways around answering under FoI. If you really are interested to know the answer, ask your MP to find out.

last figure I heard for Sqn Ldr pilot was 87% leaving at 38/16. RAF is taking delivery of hundreds of single seat ac but does not appear to have a through put of career pilots.

Like they had to do in 1996 after the "Options for Change" redundancies?

For the secret Wiltshire airbase, that's nearer 100%!

Many of the JOs that took PAS when it came in are only waiting for their 5 years amortisation of their FRI to be complete before also leaving. Perhaps the rumoured new FRI for Sqn Ldrs needs to be spread further still?

Shawtarce said:
 

Thats me:) My time has been done, and whilst I can cope with crap detachments and unaccompanied service, as soon as it even vaquely fails to suit ME, I am off. Post 30 years service and 6 months is all it takes. Loyalty is either 2 way or not at all, and I have been around long enough to know that UK Military plc do not give a toss about any one person.

I am refreshed though at some of the people presently in my chain of command. The Army mate who gave the bird to Tony on behalf of me and mine gets utmost respect, and at a service dinner recently, I listened to a speech by a senior officer in my particular chain of command that assured me that the people at the top are very aware that elastic can only be stretched so far before it snaps, and that we are pushing our luck.

I am optimistic that the recent US elections will send a shockwave through the British Parliament, and that a reality caption may be in sight. I sincerely hope so for all our sakes.

Most of the SNCO's I know are waiting for their pension point. In fact, I know of only one who isn't!

We have guys being picked up for their third after only two years as cpl. And there was me thinking you had to do 5 in rank before being eligable!:rolleyes:

You know this may actually be exactly what the RAF want. Join at age 18, leave (through choice) at 40, and have a young (fit) fighting force without any accusations of ageism. With the present (& future?) workloads, everybody will be burned out by 40 anyway, if not before. If you want a job with long term potential, join as a physiotherapist / trick cyclist.

You could then get ex-military (civilians) to do the instructional work and second line duties. Oh.... silly me; we already do.

The weak link would then be recruitment, not retention. I think the days of short term solutions (FRI) may well be over.

Who is 'we'? UK plc?

Beg to differ there Yoz. Take a look at these figures;

Aussies 2 X J model and @ 120 ground crew
Brits 4 X J model and 16 ground crew!

In theatre a few weeks ago. Barely enough engineers to do the job. Same goes for other aircraft eng dets, the Aussies can't believe it. They get paid tax free and an Iraq bonus. Any clues as to why they are so well staffed?

Overstretch to snapping point or just stretched?

Nige,

Correct about the numbers, however, the 120 ground crew aren't there just to support a det of 2xC-130s.

Tax & det bonus is a laughable issue isn't it.

LJR stand corrected, but the plain fact is there are many more engineers supporting fewer aircraft. These engineers will be better rested, better motivated, flight safety issues should be less prevalent and crucially, they are less likely to want to leave. The dearth in RAF engineers is also true of the Nimrod det. There is a feeling that those in higher rank just have to make it work in the short term til they move on to their next job doing something different. Ignoring the fact that an almost untenable situation is being reached.

I've actually heard senior people suggesting just that. I understand that the MOD are about to spend billions on a new flying training system that reduces the time it takes to get crews onto the front line - but all that's going to do is bring forward the date at which pilots get their exemptions for a civilian licence, and hence, the date at which they can PVR. Wouldn't it be far better to spend that money on retaining people?

Recruitment X Retention = The Service Strength

To keep a constant Service Strength, if Retention drops then Recruitment has to rise. The trouble is that it costs millions to train a military pilot. So I agree with you Yozzer, I think we're beyond the point at which an FRI would help; people need to be assured that they will have a competitive wage when they are in their 40s if they are to be persuaded to stay during their 30s. FRI's don't give that assurance. Neither does the PA spine; especially if you're good and have been promoted to sqn ldr.

When asked where the groundcrew incentive was at the time of the aircrew deals, I believe an AOC replied:

"If I need more engineers, I'll just go and buy some..."

I'm not sure he grasped the fact that you can't just drive down the jobcentre and load them onto a bus, then send them to Iraq...:ugh:

Engineers have never received the priority they deserve. If the FRI is exclusive to Sqn Ldr Pilots, (someone has to run the Air Force), it will be a mistake. Engineering is on its knees in some places, fewer people doing more and more only has one end result. Exit.

As has been said earlier this is merely sticking plaster stuff, but is necessary because dets are already down to skeleton manning.

A humble observation.

The current system of pilot recruitment, training and retention is about 50 years out of date.

It is geared around finding a 21 yr old Officer pilot with excellent physical aptitude and above average intelligence. As if they are going to spend the next 25 years flying high-G dogfights in Spitfires or Hunters against the Luftwaffe or Russian Air Force.

They're not.

Most of them will never ever fly supersonically. Those that do will achieve little even if they are used in the Air Battle of 2012. What IS required are a cadre of highly specialised blokes or girls that understand all manner of battlefield tactics, crypto, comms, weapons, weapons, weapons, and yet display excellent CRM excellent emotional stability and excellent team skills.

They will require a small division of techies, many will be employed by Boeing/Airbus/Raytheon/BAE etc etc.

None will need 25 airbases covering 149 acres each with support staff and a dog with a man on a leash at the gate waiting for Harry to turn up to collect his final salary pension.

This is the truth of the Modern RAF.

Cheers


WWW

ps I've never been closer to the RAF than being in a UAS so I know nothing.

pps I dearly support the RAF and the entire UK Armed Forces. You are so sinned against while remaining saintly.

In my section, of the 5 SNCO's, 3 are waiting on they're 22 point to leave, 1 has PVR'd with only 1 looking to stay. That is pretty poor by any standard.

Not so humble as to know the truth, a concept that eludes we lesser mortals! The future size and capability of the RAF (and its sister services) is ultimately the responsibility of its political masters. The future viability of the RAF to function as a military force, ie to go to war, is the responsibility of the Air Staff, and in particular the Chief of the Air Staff. It would seem to this (also) humble observer that this is a responsibility that has already been reneged upon.
The simple but profound mantra drummed into every junior officer in my day was Money, Mail, Meals. The first would appear to be in chaos, the second a bone of contention if one includes all forms of communication from detachment, and one can only hope that they are at least being fed well! Add to these shortcomings those of quarters as well as a lack of military hospitals for the wounded, and a picture emerges of a dysfunctional organisation that is failing in its duty of care. The young and old alike suffer from these shortcomings, and are voting with their feet. I don't think that the employees of Messrs Boeing/Airbus/Raytheon/BAE etc etc will be minded to take their place in AFG etc etc, do you? The main strength of any military force is its morale. It takes years, decades, even centuries to build up an esprit de corps. It can take the mere stroke of a pen to destroy it. What Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler and Stalin failed to do, the apparatchiks of this contemptible bunch of peaceniks are achieving, that is the internal destruction of our armed forces. To give him credit General Danatt, the CGS, has voiced his fears, albeit to withdraw from Iraq, but from the Air Rank cadre...nothing! The armed forces are not a local council, where everything can be put out to private tender. They go to war, councils do not!

Dear oh dear, nothing quite so dramatic needed, just pick up Chief Clerks Bulletin or the monthly report from DASC - figures compiled by DASC are the same your MP would get or any FOI.

"argue for your limitations and they are yours!"

No stats since JPA!
 

I'll think you'll find that since JPA, DASA have been unable to publish any proper stats; in fact a Branch Sponsor friend tells me that when trying to reconcile redundancy figures he contacted DASA who are unable to tell him how many people are currently in the branch!:ugh:

I bet you haven't seen one of those lately! They seemed to dry up months ago.

How do you get one without the other? The two requirements would seem to be pretty much the same, especially when you consider that those older than 21 are harder to train to fly.

Hello this is my first post but have watched from afar.
As the name suggests i work on the Mighty Hunter as a GE.

With regards to manpower issues up here at ISK 14 out of 18 fairies on one shift have PVR'd in the last month!!

Out of 83 supposed bodies avaliable to our shift this week 24 were at work as the rest are either in the gulf, coming back from the gulf or getting trained to go to the gulf, and only 4 were on leave.

Shift was:

1 x FS
1 x C/T rects contoller
1 x SAC line controller (no JNCO's to spare for this job)
3 x AGEs (out of 7)
4 x riggers (1 SNCO and 3 SACs) (out of 20)
2 x sootie SACs (out of 10)
3 x leckies (2 Cpls and 1 x-dressed fairy) (out of 10)
4 Plumbers (out of 15)
5 x faries (out of 18)

And this is before all the redundances and PVRs bite!!!!

The meltdown has begun gentlemen make no mistake about that and I despair for the future. Will no-one sit up and take note??!

Unfortunately it seems not until there are a few more expensive smoking holes in the ground and a few less Daddies buying Christmas presents for their kids.

Guess there is only one thing to do, with days to do to my pension point. Leave this cheapskate outfit and go and join the Aussies!!:ok:

Headsouth

The stats are as stunning as they are worrying. It was the case not long ago, and probably remains so, that the sole reason UK military aircraft airworthiness is not managed by the CAA is because they are claimed to be maintained to 'at least the same standard as civil aircraft'.

If meltdown continues like this, assuming this is not wholly unexceptional, it won't be long before the CAA takes control. Now that really is a worry!

I agree!!! Sorry aircrew take note, this going to become the `norm`, for **** sake, you need to be supported better than this!:{

I am startled by the mighty hunter's post. How can CDS refer to "stretch" but not "over-stretch" when we appear to be staring into the abyss? I find it hard to understand what the RAF is trying to achieve. I am saddened by what is happening, especially the failure to admit to the dire situation. Please, someone correct me if I am wrong.

I think we all know that's not going to happen.
As stated in the front of JSP553. Words to the effect that the MoD is competent to do so ?

S_H

The figures mighty hunter quotes are definately worrying and indisputable, unfortunately, even as i left ISK almost 18 months ago you could see how stretched NLS were and that was before redundances started to bite.
The down side that i saw was that inexperienced tradesmen were coming out to aircraft and unfortunately didnt have the ability,experience or knowledge to do the some of the repairs.
From the aircrew perspective, i do remember being shown a presentation which suggested that there might be a shortfall of nav`s in 2008 and again that was before the redundances started.

Somebody somewhere has badly screwd up - yet again !:=

There are a load at Lyneham doing naff all....................:uhoh: