Reduction in uniformed numbers: 99% certain.

Commensurate reduction in commitments: 0% likelihood.

Good redundancy packages: 0% chance.

Any reundancy package: 5% chance.

'Rightsizing' through natural wastage: 95% likely.

Death of a scottish base: ?

But my gut feeling is that I wouldn't be buying a house near Coltishall at the moment...