Another war in the Falklands?
Flatus: I think that was my point (see point 1 in my last post) that given any meaningful warning, reinforcement/deterrence is now the crucial point.
For further consideration - what sort of deployment would be sufficient to head off an invasion, and how quickly could it get there? (the question of speed affecting the question of force) Obviously the time needed to deploy would define how much warning required, what the garrison would be expected to do etc. More relevant than "Falklands Invasion?", perhaps?
For further consideration - what sort of deployment would be sufficient to head off an invasion, and how quickly could it get there? (the question of speed affecting the question of force) Obviously the time needed to deploy would define how much warning required, what the garrison would be expected to do etc. More relevant than "Falklands Invasion?", perhaps?
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When the Engineer that built the runway calculated its position he was out by 1000 metres (was he an Argie?).
Most of the bombs landed 1000 metres from the runway.
Accurate delivery, just wrong co-ordinates.
Most of the bombs landed 1000 metres from the runway.
Accurate delivery, just wrong co-ordinates.
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The story I got (from the guy who planned the raid) was that originally it was supposed to be 21x1,000 lb retarded straight down the runway from whatever the min height the system and fusing demanded (100ft?). But the RN High Command fluffed and faffed about for so long, to make sure the Argies had their radar-directed AAA deployed around the airfield, that the risk/reward became impractical, and virtually at the final briefing at Waddo the profile was switched to the 2H "pop-up" attack. My source (a Gp Capt) volunteered to fly the mission as Nav/Radar using the low level profile, but the C-in-C changed it to the pop-up to 15,000 ft for release. Well, we all remember how the NBS used to react to radical changes of altitude late in the bomb-run. My source therefore calculated that an attack heading at about 45 degs to the rwy QDM would give some statistical chance of putting a bomb on the (very narrow) runway. He selected the approach and release offsets and the single crater was the resuilt he predicted.
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I believe there was only one that affected Argie operations, although they continued operating C130s. For some reason they never really attempted to repair the crater, and certainly did not try to upgrade the runway to support Mirages. That would presumably have required RHAG and runway reinforcement with one of the metal mesh systems. But it could have won them the war.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
As I understood it they did repair the crater. They then made a "false" crater of earth and swept it away each night to allow the C-130s to operate and rebuilt it before dawn to fool the recce photos.
The runway would have been marginal for the Mirage F-3 and they didn't have the Mx, fuel, spares, technicians. They had no HAZ or revetments do they would have been intensely vulnerable. They also didn't have the inter-service training and shot down the only Mirage trying to do an emergency recovery to the field.
Lovely concept, if only they'd planned it out before with fly-away packs, bladder tanks etc.
War has no mercy for amateurs.
The runway would have been marginal for the Mirage F-3 and they didn't have the Mx, fuel, spares, technicians. They had no HAZ or revetments do they would have been intensely vulnerable. They also didn't have the inter-service training and shot down the only Mirage trying to do an emergency recovery to the field.
Lovely concept, if only they'd planned it out before with fly-away packs, bladder tanks etc.
War has no mercy for amateurs.
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Thanks for the Help
Thanks for the help guys this is all great food for thought for the presentation. Please keep the posts coming.
I reckon the best time for argie to attack would be while we are at war with Iraq i support of Dubwya's war. Recon we're stretched enough as it is, don't think the Stategic Def Review allowed for that many conflics/committments at one time did it?
Cheers
I reckon the best time for argie to attack would be while we are at war with Iraq i support of Dubwya's war. Recon we're stretched enough as it is, don't think the Stategic Def Review allowed for that many conflics/committments at one time did it?
Cheers
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Grimweasel
Forgive me for coming back at this late stage (I am in the throes of upgrading fro Win95 to XP02) but what cfedible threat could the AAF have presented to a Vulcan between Ascension and the FI? Did they have AWACs and fighters with masses of tanker support?
Forgive me for coming back at this late stage (I am in the throes of upgrading fro Win95 to XP02) but what cfedible threat could the AAF have presented to a Vulcan between Ascension and the FI? Did they have AWACs and fighters with masses of tanker support?
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Dont know that there would be more FA2 today then there was FRS1 in 1982. The Argentine airforce has not as far as I can tell from Janes, made any great leaps forward since 1982, whilst the FA2 is a considerably more potent weapon.
AEW would be a major factor in fleet defence, as would the improved radars and missile systems of the RN's Frigates and Destroyers.
TLAM would be a very potent weapon in neutralising Argentine air bases - a few of those into the aircrafts shelters and runways and not many air raids are going to come your way.
If 25 May put to sea it would meet a quick end at the hands of some spearfish torpedoes so threat from that can be largely discountered - its highly unlikely the thing could stay at sea for any length of time anyway.
However - there a far fewer Frigates/Destroyers available then there were in 1982, we would have to pull out of Gulf/NATO/Caribbean commitments to do it. Would also need to carriers, how often over the last few years have 2 of our 3 been gracing the Portsmouth dry docks! Dont know how ready Ocean would be to take FA2/GR7.
The Vulcan raids, despite only one bomb on the runway and more fuel used then all missions flown by Harriers during the war (and I am not kidding) did prove to the argies that we could drop a big fat one on Beunes Aires (or however you spell it) if we wanted.
Final question - would Argentina want to invade. They have bigger problems to solve right now.
On the other hand el presidente may wish to hand it over to them like Gibraltar.
AEW would be a major factor in fleet defence, as would the improved radars and missile systems of the RN's Frigates and Destroyers.
TLAM would be a very potent weapon in neutralising Argentine air bases - a few of those into the aircrafts shelters and runways and not many air raids are going to come your way.
If 25 May put to sea it would meet a quick end at the hands of some spearfish torpedoes so threat from that can be largely discountered - its highly unlikely the thing could stay at sea for any length of time anyway.
However - there a far fewer Frigates/Destroyers available then there were in 1982, we would have to pull out of Gulf/NATO/Caribbean commitments to do it. Would also need to carriers, how often over the last few years have 2 of our 3 been gracing the Portsmouth dry docks! Dont know how ready Ocean would be to take FA2/GR7.
The Vulcan raids, despite only one bomb on the runway and more fuel used then all missions flown by Harriers during the war (and I am not kidding) did prove to the argies that we could drop a big fat one on Beunes Aires (or however you spell it) if we wanted.
Final question - would Argentina want to invade. They have bigger problems to solve right now.
On the other hand el presidente may wish to hand it over to them like Gibraltar.
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If you guys can maintain the same venom against Her Majesty's enemies that you seem to feel against Her Majesty's other services, then I am confident that you will be able to see off a proper enemy as soon as he appears.
Turns out to be an emotive subject!! Well done all! I knew that this would get a rise out of a few people. Life has been so dull without the late great AdminGuru!!
No malice meant by it all just some good honest debating.
Like they say "Screw unto others as they screw unto you"
No malice meant by it all just some good honest debating.
Like they say "Screw unto others as they screw unto you"
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Although I carry no particular flag for the Vulcan Force of the time I would point out that the missions were some of if not the very longest bombing raids ever undertaken, carried out after little time to train in the techniques used , against unknown defences, following a long sea crossing with limited nav information and, as has been pointed out, weapons dropped from an unusual height.
Although usually aided by Victor AAR pilots the sorties involved several refuels, all at night, to complete the 14 hr trips. From personal experience 14 hrs in a Vulcan is no pleasure and they were defended by dodgy ECM alone during their attacks.
They also had to contend, as all involved in the conflict, with constant changes of plan, with equipment that was old, never intended for the job, and difficult to maintain. If the other services involved in that war did everything perfectly then let them throw stones, I don't think any glass will get broken.
Although usually aided by Victor AAR pilots the sorties involved several refuels, all at night, to complete the 14 hr trips. From personal experience 14 hrs in a Vulcan is no pleasure and they were defended by dodgy ECM alone during their attacks.
They also had to contend, as all involved in the conflict, with constant changes of plan, with equipment that was old, never intended for the job, and difficult to maintain. If the other services involved in that war did everything perfectly then let them throw stones, I don't think any glass will get broken.
This might be worth a look
http://www.books-for-free.co.uk/books/west/west.htm
and
http://www.books-for-free.co.uk/books/west/west2.htm
http://www.books-for-free.co.uk/books/west/west.htm
and
http://www.books-for-free.co.uk/books/west/west2.htm
Specaircrew......must be a psywar type....he could not possibly be that .....gosh...struggling for a polite way to say ....".eat up with the dumbass!". From my very limited knowledge of the Falklands campaign it would seem to me the RAF was pretty well limited in participation due to the decline in the Empire' territorial sprawl. The Agies must have really shuddered in their wellies knowing all those Vulcans were pointing their way. By the time the RAF strategic bomber force made a round trip, the Argies would have shut the hangar doors, pissed off to the local for a pint, had their dinner , cozied up to momma, slept a sound sleep, taken a late brekkies, and still had time to set up for the next round of visitors.
That war was won by the the Navy and Land forces under very difficult circumstances and nothing the RAF types can say today will change that. It is a commentary that HM forces are yet again facing combat action with a shortage of kit and support. One thing that will never be in short supply is stouthearted troops who will overcome the problems and do their duty.
I must say it gets rather old reading the winges of those that volunteered to serve in the military **** and moan about having to stand to when called . You took the King's Shilling Spec.....shut yer yap about it and get on with the job you are given. If your government sends you to East Bum Suck to fight Aunt Sally's needle work club and tea tasting society.....fix bayonets and go. But do so with your battle face on....and your war cry sounding.
That war was won by the the Navy and Land forces under very difficult circumstances and nothing the RAF types can say today will change that. It is a commentary that HM forces are yet again facing combat action with a shortage of kit and support. One thing that will never be in short supply is stouthearted troops who will overcome the problems and do their duty.
I must say it gets rather old reading the winges of those that volunteered to serve in the military **** and moan about having to stand to when called . You took the King's Shilling Spec.....shut yer yap about it and get on with the job you are given. If your government sends you to East Bum Suck to fight Aunt Sally's needle work club and tea tasting society.....fix bayonets and go. But do so with your battle face on....and your war cry sounding.
A few points (oops I sound like an anorak, but who cares?)
1. The Armed Forces are MUCH smaller today than they were in 1982. I read somewhere that between the elections of 1979 and 1992, the RN's frigate and destroyers numbers were reduced by 42% and the submarine numbers by 57%. We sent 23 frigates and destroyers down south in 1982, could we do that today?
2. Go to the RN website and click on Deployments, then Atlantic Patrol Task. You will find a single frigate or destroyer is supposed to defend both the Falklands and Sierra Leone.
3. Great advances have been made in the Anti Air Warfare capability of warships. However, the update to Sea Dart was delayed for years and is only happening now, and there seems to be a shortage of missiles and decoys. In 2001 the then CINCFLEET warned that ships of the fleet were more vulnerable to anti ship missiles than they were in 1982. Damned beancounters....
5. The scrapping of the SHAR - well you all know my views on that! Plus of course it will mean the RN will have problems manning the F35 in the next decade.
6. The merchant fleet is MUCH smaller now. Without them, that sort of long range operation would be impossible.
As for the Argentines
7. Whilst the Argentine carrier has been scrapped, Argentina now possess more Super Etendards and Exocets than in 1982. They are capable of land based operation, as they were in 1982.
8. The Argentine Navy now has Exocet capable S61 helicopters, which canand are based aboard ship.
9. Argentina has a surface to surface ballistic missile which could be used to target our defences.
10. With an economic crisis raging, Argentine eyes are looking at the Falklands again, to distract the populus.
Generally
11. Look (quickly) at the links above at decide if you think that the lessons of problems with intelligence have been learnt.
1. The Armed Forces are MUCH smaller today than they were in 1982. I read somewhere that between the elections of 1979 and 1992, the RN's frigate and destroyers numbers were reduced by 42% and the submarine numbers by 57%. We sent 23 frigates and destroyers down south in 1982, could we do that today?
2. Go to the RN website and click on Deployments, then Atlantic Patrol Task. You will find a single frigate or destroyer is supposed to defend both the Falklands and Sierra Leone.
3. Great advances have been made in the Anti Air Warfare capability of warships. However, the update to Sea Dart was delayed for years and is only happening now, and there seems to be a shortage of missiles and decoys. In 2001 the then CINCFLEET warned that ships of the fleet were more vulnerable to anti ship missiles than they were in 1982. Damned beancounters....
5. The scrapping of the SHAR - well you all know my views on that! Plus of course it will mean the RN will have problems manning the F35 in the next decade.
6. The merchant fleet is MUCH smaller now. Without them, that sort of long range operation would be impossible.
As for the Argentines
7. Whilst the Argentine carrier has been scrapped, Argentina now possess more Super Etendards and Exocets than in 1982. They are capable of land based operation, as they were in 1982.
8. The Argentine Navy now has Exocet capable S61 helicopters, which canand are based aboard ship.
9. Argentina has a surface to surface ballistic missile which could be used to target our defences.
10. With an economic crisis raging, Argentine eyes are looking at the Falklands again, to distract the populus.
Generally
11. Look (quickly) at the links above at decide if you think that the lessons of problems with intelligence have been learnt.
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If said Argie Bargies created a fracas again, surely we would just ask those stout hearted fellows from across the great Og-Splosh, with strange accents and big cars, to pop down and help us, as we always pop along and help them. What a grand coalition we would make! Eyes down for the big bosh gang bang and all that!!
Sorry, must go. Time to pop along and help them again in the big sandy place next to the other big sandy places, because without the might of a (chronically asthmatic ant of a) modern airforce, they'll never cope with their 10,000,000 very offensive aircraft and slightly more offensive people!
Toodle Pip!
Sorry, must go. Time to pop along and help them again in the big sandy place next to the other big sandy places, because without the might of a (chronically asthmatic ant of a) modern airforce, they'll never cope with their 10,000,000 very offensive aircraft and slightly more offensive people!
Toodle Pip!
Show that one Argie read a radical islamic text and nodded....you might get Big Brother to join in the affair. I would think the two sides of this could find some sort of diplomatic solution.....it cannot be the sheep you are fighting over.....not enough Kiwi's in the RAF anymore. If it is oil....damn...share and share alike. If it is empire....give up.....those days are over. There are bigger fish to fry out there.