US-Saudi Security Pact
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
US-Saudi Security Pact
“Previously off-limit weapons”. F-35?
“a pathway for Palestinian statehood.” Seems a low bar allowing the Saudi’s to sign with just a token gesture of solidarity….
https://archive.ph/2024.05.01-170658...ng-middle-east
US and Saudis Near Defense Pact Aimed at Reshaping Middle East
The US and Saudi Arabia are nearing a historic pact that would offer the kingdom security guarantees and lay out a possible pathway to diplomatic ties with Israel, people familiar with the matter said.
The agreement faces plenty of obstacles but would amount to a new version of a framework that was scuttled when Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel triggered the conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Negotiations have sped up in recent weeks and many officials are optimistic that Washington and Riyadh could reach a deal within weeks, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.
Such a deal would potentially reshape the Middle East. Beyond bolstering Israel and Saudi Arabia’s security, it would strengthen the US’s position in the region at the expense of Iran and even China.
The pact may offer Saudi Arabia an arrangement strong enough to need the US Senate’s approval and even give the world’s biggest oil exporter access to advanced US weapons that were previously off-limits.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would agree to limit Chinese technology from his nation’s most sensitive networks in exchange for major US investments, and get American help to build out its civilian nuclear program.
Once the US and Saudi Arabia settle their agreement, they would present Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a choice: either join the deal, which would entail formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia for the first time, more investment and regional integration, or be left behind. The key condition for Netanyahu would be ending the Gaza war and agreeing to a pathway for Palestinian statehood.
The proposal is fraught with uncertainty. Getting Congress to approve a deal that commits the US to protecting Saudi Arabia militarily would be a daunting prospect for the White House, especially if Israel opts not to join it.
Many lawmakers remain wary of Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s 38-year-old de facto ruler, after the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in 2018. They’re also uneasy about the Saudi strategy of lowering oil production, along with other members of the OPEC+ cartel, to prop up prices……
“We have done intense work together over the last months,” Blinken said on Monday while in Saudi Arabia. “The work that Saudi Arabia and the United States have been doing together in terms of our own agreements, I think, is potentially very close to completion.”
At the same event, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said an agreement was “very, very close.”….
Aspects of the deal would mirror agreements the US has made in recent months with other regional partners, including the United Arab Emirates. In that case, Abu Dhabi’s top artificial intelligence firm, G42, agreed to end cooperation with China in exchange for an investment from Microsoft Corp.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, which is also eager to develop artificial intelligence and semiconductors locally, the US has said it can’t do so with American help if it keeps Chinese technology.
“a pathway for Palestinian statehood.” Seems a low bar allowing the Saudi’s to sign with just a token gesture of solidarity….
https://archive.ph/2024.05.01-170658...ng-middle-east
US and Saudis Near Defense Pact Aimed at Reshaping Middle East
The US and Saudi Arabia are nearing a historic pact that would offer the kingdom security guarantees and lay out a possible pathway to diplomatic ties with Israel, people familiar with the matter said.
The agreement faces plenty of obstacles but would amount to a new version of a framework that was scuttled when Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel triggered the conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Negotiations have sped up in recent weeks and many officials are optimistic that Washington and Riyadh could reach a deal within weeks, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.
Such a deal would potentially reshape the Middle East. Beyond bolstering Israel and Saudi Arabia’s security, it would strengthen the US’s position in the region at the expense of Iran and even China.
The pact may offer Saudi Arabia an arrangement strong enough to need the US Senate’s approval and even give the world’s biggest oil exporter access to advanced US weapons that were previously off-limits.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would agree to limit Chinese technology from his nation’s most sensitive networks in exchange for major US investments, and get American help to build out its civilian nuclear program.
Once the US and Saudi Arabia settle their agreement, they would present Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a choice: either join the deal, which would entail formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia for the first time, more investment and regional integration, or be left behind. The key condition for Netanyahu would be ending the Gaza war and agreeing to a pathway for Palestinian statehood.
The proposal is fraught with uncertainty. Getting Congress to approve a deal that commits the US to protecting Saudi Arabia militarily would be a daunting prospect for the White House, especially if Israel opts not to join it.
Many lawmakers remain wary of Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s 38-year-old de facto ruler, after the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in 2018. They’re also uneasy about the Saudi strategy of lowering oil production, along with other members of the OPEC+ cartel, to prop up prices……
“We have done intense work together over the last months,” Blinken said on Monday while in Saudi Arabia. “The work that Saudi Arabia and the United States have been doing together in terms of our own agreements, I think, is potentially very close to completion.”
At the same event, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said an agreement was “very, very close.”….
Aspects of the deal would mirror agreements the US has made in recent months with other regional partners, including the United Arab Emirates. In that case, Abu Dhabi’s top artificial intelligence firm, G42, agreed to end cooperation with China in exchange for an investment from Microsoft Corp.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, which is also eager to develop artificial intelligence and semiconductors locally, the US has said it can’t do so with American help if it keeps Chinese technology.
Saudis pushing for Plan B
Saudis push for ‘plan B’ that excludes Israel from key deal with US
The US and Saudi Arabia have drafted a set of agreements on security and technology-sharing which were intended to be linked to a broader Middle East settlement involving Israel and the Palestinians.
However, in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and in the face of adamant resistance from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government to the creation of a Palestinian state – and its apparent determination to launch an offensive on Rafah – the Saudis are pushing for a more modest plan B, which excludes the Israelis.
Under that option, the US and Saudi Arabia would sign agreements on a bilateral defence pact, US help in the building of a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.
An offer would be made to Israel of normalisation of diplomatic relations with Riyadh in return for Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution to the 76-year Israeli-Arab conflict. But under Riyadh’s plan B proposal, completion of the US-Saudi deals would not be made dependent on agreement from the Netanyahu government.
“There should be room for a less-for-less model, so the relationship with the US need not be held hostage to the whims of Israeli politics or Benjamin Netanyahu,” said Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute.
The Biden administration would not land the historic regional settlement it has been seeking in the wreckage of the Gaza war, at least not immediately, but it would cement a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia that would keep encroaching Chinese and Russian influence at bay.
It is far from clear whether the administration – let alone Congress – would accept such a less-for-less outcome.
/continues...
However, in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and in the face of adamant resistance from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government to the creation of a Palestinian state – and its apparent determination to launch an offensive on Rafah – the Saudis are pushing for a more modest plan B, which excludes the Israelis.
Under that option, the US and Saudi Arabia would sign agreements on a bilateral defence pact, US help in the building of a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.
An offer would be made to Israel of normalisation of diplomatic relations with Riyadh in return for Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution to the 76-year Israeli-Arab conflict. But under Riyadh’s plan B proposal, completion of the US-Saudi deals would not be made dependent on agreement from the Netanyahu government.
“There should be room for a less-for-less model, so the relationship with the US need not be held hostage to the whims of Israeli politics or Benjamin Netanyahu,” said Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute.
The Biden administration would not land the historic regional settlement it has been seeking in the wreckage of the Gaza war, at least not immediately, but it would cement a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia that would keep encroaching Chinese and Russian influence at bay.
It is far from clear whether the administration – let alone Congress – would accept such a less-for-less outcome.
/continues...
Interesting article, artee, and let's get out the popcorn as we watch AIPAC (and others) stir up a storm of objections.
