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RN Trident failure

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RN Trident failure

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Old 21st Feb 2024, 12:00
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by bugged on the right
Low average, I wonder if they actually care? The way Russia has thrown its troops into human wave attacks would they would give a hoot about the civilian population being vaporised. After all the leaders must have billions stashed away and will be the seed population for the new Russia.
Well, I think they would like us to believe they're suicidal, but I've not seen any evidence for that, just a lot of propoganda.

Also, they've done a good job of protecting their Regular forces by sending prisoners, homeless, migrants, mercenaries and peasant conscripts into human wave attacks.

I fear we may be drifting away from the topic of this thread though....
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 12:19
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The operation was a success but the patient died?
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 12:27
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
The paper said the Trident II D5 missile was intended to be fired 5,600 miles (9,012 km) to a sea target off the west coast of Africa but veered towards the US.
Look, I know a lot of folks in the UK don't like a certain orange-haired person, but was that really necessary?
The cause of what went wrong remains top secret, the paper reported, but quoted a senior naval source as saying the missile suffered an in-flight malfunction after launching out of the water.
No kidding?
Trident was the "most reliable weapons system in the world" having completed more than 190 successful tests.
OK, that makes me feel better.
Originally Posted by Procrastinus
"That is the missile itself. That is an American issue" Sounds like a warranty claim to me, but perhaps that it too simplistic
Maybe it's a homing missile. (See above, it apparently wanted to go home to the US where it was made.
Originally Posted by Biggus
If our nuclear deterrent were ever used in anger then it would be "American" missiles that would be fired. While the technicalities of the missiles performance might well be an American responsibility, the ultimate success or failure of the mission is very much a UK concern. If the telemetry in a test missile fails, it raises the inevitable questions about the reliability of the components of a war shot missile (yes, I know war shot missiles aren't fitted with test telemetry).
Not just a UK concern but a NATO concern.

Trident: putting the D into Deterrence. (As in a letter grade ...)
I expect that the folks at SUBPAC and SUBLANT are asking a few questions about our stuff this morning.
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 12:35
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Originally Posted by Low average
If we can't even successfully fire telemetry rounds, it points to deeper issues and lowers my confidence that we're capable of vaporising Moscow or Beijing from thousands of miles away.
ORAC has covered this in his previous posts. Adding telemetry also adds a different layer of complexity but the telemetry is there to measure performance and allow intervention in the event of a malfunction after launch. Without the telemetry you cannot guarantee the misssile is performing as expected, and you cannot intervene if it is not, which means your safety calculus (risk to 3rd parties, geo-political effects, etc.) becomes invalid unless you know even a malfunctioning missile will stay within the range safety trace.

You might expect a salvage or destroy in situ op will be under way, and any investigation will look at the data to determine exactly where/why the termination happened. I hope we will not be told the outcome, because we do not need to know. Warshots of any weapon can and do fail, and it would be reasonable to expect there to be a back-up process in the event a launch against a primary target fails at an early stage. It would be even more reasonable to expect it will not be discussed on PPrune.

The fact that the crew was able to execute a firing at the end of a complex chain of events should raise confidence rather than lower it - every other time they have run this sequence it will have been a simulation or a 'switches safe' practice.

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Old 21st Feb 2024, 13:07
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This was the bit that stood out for me:

the missiles would usually be armed with a nuclear warhead but they are not fitted for test fires.
Well that's good to know
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 13:47
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Sorry Fortissimo, but 2 successive failures does not raise confidence in my opinion. In 2017 the target was off the West Coast of Africa - it went in the opposite direction, and now again something has happened on this attempt.

Two misses.

Great that the crew did their job though...

Originally Posted by Fortissimo
The fact that the crew was able to execute a firing at the end of a complex chain of events should raise confidence rather than lower it - every other time they have run this sequence it will have been a simulation or a 'switches safe' practice.
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 16:35
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Originally Posted by Kiltrash
however what benefit to having the Dec Sec on board, unless a cunning plan to say we need more money?

​​​
Possibly as a countermeasure in case of attack, they could flush him out of the Torpedo Tube with some waste oil and a pile of dirty underwear.

I've seen it in several good films.. It always works.
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 17:28
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Three points to make here.
3. What is known of the investigation* into the previous failure indicates it was a telemetry issue which automatically terminated the test by preventing the booster ignition. Where the telemetry problem occurred will undoubtedly not be released, but a second occurrence, if related, will probably mean changes to test equipment and/or procedures - but not related to the operations of the deterrent itself.
If accurate, the news reports stating that there was no 1st stage ignition would seem to eliminate faulty telemetry as a potential cause of the failure. It would also indicate that there was no activation of the flight termination system; i.e., there was no human safety intervention to terminate the missile flight.
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 17:45
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When asked to confirm that the test had involved a dummy, the MoD stated that Grant Shapps had indeed been on board.

(credit: HIGNFY)
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 23:13
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Can’t blame the RAF for moving Australia this time…..,
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 23:31
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Originally Posted by BFSGrad
If accurate, the news reports stating that there was no 1st stage ignition would seem to eliminate faulty telemetry as a potential cause of the failure. It would also indicate that there was no activation of the flight termination system; i.e., there was no human safety intervention to terminate the missile flight.
Someone forgot to light the blue touchpaper?
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Old 21st Feb 2024, 23:34
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Originally Posted by ORAC
There have been 192 test firings of the D5, which are drawn from a common pool of missiles, of which 10 are acknowledged as having failed. Several of these have been terminated due to telemetry issues for safety reasons. That’s about a 95% success rate.

I think knowing we have a boat at sea with between 8-12 missiles with a 95%+ success rate counts as a deterrent.

Reference the difference between firing a DASO telemetry round and an operational round, the photo below is of Vanguard with the DASO telemetry mast for a test firing. If there is an issue it’s probably related to either the hardware or software interface between the test equipment, missile, sub and shore flight termination system than the missile itself.


That’s a seriously long pitot tube on the missile, it puts the Jag to shame
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 00:43
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Ancillary question is when and how will the Brits will recover the dud missile. I don’t think it’s a floater.
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 06:49
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Not our problem - it belongs to the US.................
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 08:27
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Can’t blame the RAF for moving Australia this time…..,
Perhaps the Andrew should consider moving their proposed targets a bit closer to their boats?

It'd certainly be of benefit to both their SSBNs and aircraft carrying barges.
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 08:43
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Originally Posted by Low average
Sorry Fortissimo, but 2 successive failures does not raise confidence in my opinion.
What we don't know is how many test article missiles have been launched successfully or not by the USN in that time?

Just because we have had two failures in 8 years the USN could have launched 10, 20 or even more with a 100% success rate. The weapons all come from a shared pool so it really could be just bad luck that we got two faulty units.
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 09:07
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Originally Posted by Lomon
What we don't know is how many test article missiles have been launched successfully or not by the USN in that time?

Just because we have had two failures in 8 years the USN could have launched 10, 20 or even more with a 100% success rate. The weapons all come from a shared pool so it really could be just bad luck that we got two faulty units.
ORAC covers that upthread here: RN Trident failure
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 09:17
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Testing, Testing 1...2... oops, prepare 3...

Perhaps next time they should consider launching from shallower waters, that will make the recovery easier.
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 09:17
  #39 (permalink)  
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"it really could be just bad luck that we got two faulty units."

of course but we also got 2 faulty carriers, at least one dodgy Astute and 6 faulty T45's

"Mr Bond - once is happenstance, twice is co-coincidence, three times is enemy action" - Auric Goldfinger
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Old 22nd Feb 2024, 09:36
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"it really could be just bad luck that we got two faulty units."

of course but we also got 2 faulty carriers, at least one dodgy Astute and 6 faulty T45's

"Mr Bond - once is happenstance, twice is co-coincidence, three times is enemy action" - Auric Goldfinger
Oh dear Mr Asturias, did you get out the wrong side of your civilian bed this morning? Not like you at all, especially coming from a welcome "honorary" member of this forum!

Jack
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