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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 09:04
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Niger

A Leaked Document which appears to show a “Flash Message” for a Sergeant in the Nigerian Army with Orders to prepare for the Deployment of Personnel and Anti-Aircraft Equipment to the City of Sokoto in Northwestern Nigeria near the Niger-Nigerian Border; with the Orders said to be in preparation for an “Impending Operation in Niger” and the Enforcement of a No-Fly Zone.




A group of British nationals left Niger on a French flight last night. They were met in Paris by British and French teams.

We've worked closely with @francediplo to support the evacuation, and are grateful for their help.

UK Ambassador @CMInglehearn and a core team are on the ground in Niger to support the very small number of British nationals still there.




​​​​​​​The President of Côte d'Ivoire announced the readiness of the country's armed forces to take part in the invasion of Niger.

The media also reported that since yesterday, Nigeria has cut off electricity supplies to neighboring Niger, where a coup took place.

According to AFP, Niger is 70% dependent on Nigerian electricity.

Meanwhile, the US State Department ordered parts of the employees of the US Embassy in Niger and their families to leave the country.

Also, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told Niger President Mohamed Bazum in a telephone conversation that Washington intends to seek the return of power to the legitimate government of this African country. This is stated in a written statement by the head of the press service of the State Department, Matthew Miller.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 10:57
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Someone needs to tell them; you don't need a military coup to express your dislike for the French.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 13:16
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Conspicuously missing in the conversation above (at least in a Military Aviation point of view) is any mention of AFB201 Agadez
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 16:19
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IIRC, the coup happened last week.
A Non Combatant Evac Operation can be quite ticklish.
President of Nigeria has (in his role as ECOWAS chair) indicated a desire to see the coup reversed.
For atakacs: here's a mention of that base.
Originally Posted by FP magazine, bullets to summarize points
... Monday ... both Mali and Burkina Faso announced that any move by a foreign power to directly undermine Niger’s ongoing coup would be deemed a “declaration of war” against their own countries.
  • Their vow appears to be directed largely at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which promised on Sunday to take “all measures necessary” to reinstate ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum if he is not back in power by the end of the week. Already, the bloc has imposed sanctions on Niger—suspending all transactions between the coup-struck nation and ECOWAS member states—as well as frozen all Nigerien assets in regional central banks.
  • All three nations—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—have been battling insurgencies by Islamist extremist groups that former colonizer France along with the United States have tried and failed to eradicate.
  • Meanwhile, Paris announced on Tuesday that it would begin immediate evacuations of French citizens and other Europeans from Niger. Italy quickly followed suit. The move comes after the French Embassy in Niger’s capital of Niamey was attacked on Sunday following France’s decision to suspend all aid to the West African state on Saturday. The White House said the United States has not changed its decision on maintaining a U.S. military presence in the country, where some 1,000 U.S. troops remain stationed but are restricted to the U.S. military base in Agadez, in central Niger.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 21:45
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​​​​​​​The West African Nation of Benin has followed the lead of Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Senegal in announcing that if Negotiations do indeed Fail they will send their Armed Forces to assist an ECOWAS-Military Intervention against the Military Junta in Niger.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 06:39
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The Head of the military junta in Niger, Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tchiani has announced that Niger will Immediately suspend all military cooperation agreements with France including the agreement which allows French military forces to remain in Niger.

Tchiani further stated that Niger will swiftly respond to any sort of aggression by ECOWAS or the West African Community.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 06:43
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Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, and Benin have all agreed to partake in a possible military intervention by ECOWAS.

Mali and Burkina Faso have both stated that they will support Niger if there is an intervention.






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Old 4th Aug 2023, 16:32
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While the order of battle information is interesting, I'd be interested in
(1) the Air Order of Battler and
(2) a professional assessment of:
  • How much experience do the ECOWAS nations have in coalition operations? (Some have contributed to various UN and regional security initiatives in the past)
  • how much experience the nations intending to intervene have in combined operations?
  • How good they are at logistics?
  • How is their air logistics / cargo / supply situation?

As I look at the map, that's a non-trivial undertaking that they are proposing, the kind that is difficult even for well trained and well experienced organizations like NATO ... who are well funded.
Even more daunting in that Niger already has two allies who have spoken up to indicate they'll interfere on behalf of the Niger coup leadership.
They just raised the ante.

Complicating the political problem further is that the US may want to keep their footprint there at the aforementioned base (or maybe not).
If the decision is to keep that base active, they will likely not offer support to the ECOWAS initiative in a supporting role (or a 'lead from behind' effort such as Obama did in a few of the North African and West African conflicts when he was in office).
I am sure that the Nigerian president already has people on the phone with various counterparts in Washington to work out a deal, but what kind of a deal that might be could take a lot of different forms.

Another thought on the coalition/combined operations theme:
I wonder if ECOWAS is going to look for backing at the UNSC.
I don't think that they need to, as they are a regional security organization, but at the political level I suspect that they will before crossing any borders.

All in all, I am not sure if this is a bluff.
If they choose to follow through, and the two allies stand up to support the coup leadership in Niger, this could be a substantial mess.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 17:30
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Talking

If they choose to follow through, and the two allies stand up to support the coup leadership in Niger, this could be a substantial mess.
75% of the ECOWAS members are Francophile nations - very easy for the new regime in Niger to portray as Macron's stooges interfering in their domestic affairs and harden public support behind their cause. but hey, I am sure smarter people than us have this all figured out
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 18:51
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WTF ?

Lonewolf ... Sir

All in all, I am not sure if this is a bluff.
If they choose to follow through, and the two allies stand up to support the coup leadership in Niger, this could be a substantial mess.
Given that the other day apparently Kenya offered to send a peace keeping force, how would you currently define "Another efrican fustercluck" ?

LFH
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 22:35
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Niger coup d'état update.

The President of Nigeria submitted a proposal to the Nigerian senate for military intervention in Niger. He noted that the decision to deploy military force is part of the conclusions reached at a meeting held on Sunday in Abuja, Nigeria's capital.

“Following the unfortunate political situation in the Republic of Niger, which led to the overthrow of its president, ECOWAS under my leadership fully condemned the coup and decided to seek the return of a democratically elected government. In an effort to restore peace,

ECOWAS convened and adopted a communiqué: closure and monitoring of all land borders with Niger Republic, resumption of border exercises, suspension of electricity supply to Niger Republic, military capacity building and deployment of personnel for military intervention to compel the military junta in Niger to comply demands, if they remain disobedient," the proposal says.

The meeting in the Nigerian capital of Abuja between the ECOWAS Committee of Chiefs of Defence Staff has ended with the Commissioner, Abdel-Fatau Musah stating, “The Eeements of a possible Intervention against the military junta in Niger have been Ddveloped, including the necessary resources, but also the way and when we will deploy this force.”

He further stated that any sort of military operation will be conducted rapidly when it is ordered by the ECOWAS Head’s of State, but that they are still attempting to Nngotiate with the Niger military junta but that there doesn’t appear to be a solution in sight.
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Old 10th Aug 2023, 22:44
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ECOWAS backs military intervention in Niger 'as soon as possible': I.Coast president

France and the United States have stated that they Fully-Support the “Decisions and Actions” that have been agreed upon by the ECOWAS Organization.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​
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