The US has built and flown a prototype Next Gen fighter...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Gulp…..
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022...llions-apiece/
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force’s secretive NGAD future fighter program could be the most expensive aircraft program in history, with each piloted, sixth-generation aircraft expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
When asked about the price tag for NGAD during a Wednesday appearance before the House Armed Services Committee, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall did not specify exactly how much an individual aircraft could cost, but said the service was talking about “multiple” hundreds of millions.
“This is a number that’s going to get your attention,” Kendall said. “It’s going to be an expensive airplane.”……
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022...llions-apiece/
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force’s secretive NGAD future fighter program could be the most expensive aircraft program in history, with each piloted, sixth-generation aircraft expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
When asked about the price tag for NGAD during a Wednesday appearance before the House Armed Services Committee, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall did not specify exactly how much an individual aircraft could cost, but said the service was talking about “multiple” hundreds of millions.
“This is a number that’s going to get your attention,” Kendall said. “It’s going to be an expensive airplane.”……
“It’s going to be an expensive airplane.”……
well i don't think we expected to to cost the same as an F-16... but very worrying "multiples" - and no restriction on the number of significant digits I note
Augustine's Law suggests it will be around $ 1Bn per aircraft
well i don't think we expected to to cost the same as an F-16... but very worrying "multiples" - and no restriction on the number of significant digits I note
Augustine's Law suggests it will be around $ 1Bn per aircraft
Gulp indeed ORAC. Can't help but think due to cost it will be a smallish buy, like the F-22 and B-2 ended up, which drove unit costs to eyewatering levels. Making the F-35 look cheap!
I am going to go out on a limb here:
If the cost gets that high per unit, I suspect that the program may get axed and my prediction that the F-35 will be the last manned fighter made will come true.
If the cost gets that high per unit, I suspect that the program may get axed and my prediction that the F-35 will be the last manned fighter made will come true.
I recall reading something back in my college days - probably in AW&ST - about a future aircraft program (somewhat sarcastic).
This aircraft had amazing capabilities - Mach 10, hugely maneuverable, etc.
Oh, and a single aircraft cost the entire annual defense budget...
This aircraft had amazing capabilities - Mach 10, hugely maneuverable, etc.
Oh, and a single aircraft cost the entire annual defense budget...
Interesting that Northrop has already built six B-21s... on time, on budget and by all accounts to scope.
And I think - inflation adjusted, they're cheaper than their B-2 predecessors original projected per unit cost of around $700m each?
Why isn't the same going to be true of NGAD - which has reportedly already flown in some form, and quote "broken records."?
There's no way decision makers will tolerate a repeat of the JSF boondoggle.
And I think - inflation adjusted, they're cheaper than their B-2 predecessors original projected per unit cost of around $700m each?
Why isn't the same going to be true of NGAD - which has reportedly already flown in some form, and quote "broken records."?
There's no way decision makers will tolerate a repeat of the JSF boondoggle.
Last edited by tartare; 29th Apr 2022 at 23:56.
It's no surprise that future technology with networking, system of systems approach, custom software, satellites, drones, stealth and such gets more expensive with each generation. Let alone the cost increase when keeping stuff top secret without normal bidding processes. And as had happened before they might hide something else within the budget.
If you look at recent Su versus missiles results it might still be worth it.
If you look at recent Su versus missiles results it might still be worth it.
"Warden confirmed that the B-21's cost will come in under the Air Force's initial ceiling production unit cost of $550 million in 2010 dollars. The last time the Air Force officially re-set the figure was in 2019, she said, when it was “a little over $600 million” average procurement unit cost"
"Why isn't the same going to be true of NGAD - which has reportedly already flown in some form," It's a good point but I suspect the initial version is simply proof of concept of the airframe - all the interesting (and expensive) stuff still has to be developed, stuck on and made to work
"Why isn't the same going to be true of NGAD - which has reportedly already flown in some form," It's a good point but I suspect the initial version is simply proof of concept of the airframe - all the interesting (and expensive) stuff still has to be developed, stuck on and made to work
I do wonder how much of the cost is added admin, classification, reporting, analysis etc.
I.e. nothing to do with hard and sharp engineering and innovation.
Interestingly, do we know yet which contractor is taking the lead on developing the thing - I am assuming it'll be the Skunks - given fighters are not in Northrop's recent DNA?
Point noted r/e the airframe.
Have looked at those chrome F-22s and wondered if that's some sort of anti-directed energy coating.
Equally - would NGAD field a terrawatt class laser weapon?
No need for missiles.
But still - even imagining turbojets that can morph to turbofans - an ELINT signature the size of a fly - a laser turret, data links to loyal wingmen etc. and range to cover the South China Sea - several hundreds of millions of US dollars per copy??
Wow.
I.e. nothing to do with hard and sharp engineering and innovation.
Interestingly, do we know yet which contractor is taking the lead on developing the thing - I am assuming it'll be the Skunks - given fighters are not in Northrop's recent DNA?
Point noted r/e the airframe.
Have looked at those chrome F-22s and wondered if that's some sort of anti-directed energy coating.
Equally - would NGAD field a terrawatt class laser weapon?
No need for missiles.
But still - even imagining turbojets that can morph to turbofans - an ELINT signature the size of a fly - a laser turret, data links to loyal wingmen etc. and range to cover the South China Sea - several hundreds of millions of US dollars per copy??
Wow.
Why laser? Laser brings fighting back from BVR to visual range and to generate the energy you leave a huge IR-signature each shot?
(What happened to the word laser? Why this Autocorrection? Directed energy works)
(What happened to the word laser? Why this Autocorrection? Directed energy works)
Agreed - any stealth and firing off a terrawatt weapon that could be detected from the Moon isn't a likely match.
"But still - even imagining turbojets that can morph to turbofans - an ELINT signature the size of a fly - a l@serturret, data links to loyal wingmen etc. and range to cover the South China Sea -"
it's also going to be the size of Hercules with all that on board I'd guess. But as you say - the "soft" costs are likely to be a very large part of the bill - training schemes, a new parts tracking system (they seem to be de-rigeur on new US projects) and all the other nice-to-haves that seem to be attracted to every new design
"But still - even imagining turbojets that can morph to turbofans - an ELINT signature the size of a fly - a l@serturret, data links to loyal wingmen etc. and range to cover the South China Sea -"
it's also going to be the size of Hercules with all that on board I'd guess. But as you say - the "soft" costs are likely to be a very large part of the bill - training schemes, a new parts tracking system (they seem to be de-rigeur on new US projects) and all the other nice-to-haves that seem to be attracted to every new design
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022...cal-new-phase/
The Air Force’s next-gen fighter has moved into a critical new phase
WASHINGTON — The Air Force’s secretive and highly classified Next Generation Air Dominance fighter program has started its crucial engineering and manufacturing development phase, Secretary Frank Kendall said Wednesday.
In a discussion at the Heritage Foundation, Kendall said the Air Force began early experimental prototyping on NGAD in 2015, when he was the Pentagon’s top acquisition official….
The technology has continued to progress, he said, and the NGAD effort is now envisioned as a “family of systems” incorporating several elements, including a handful of autonomous drone aircraft accompanying the manned aircraft in formation.
It typically takes the Air Force’s acquisition programs almost seven years to reach initial operating capability from the beginning of the EMD phase. Although the service has already been working on NGAD for about that long, because it just recently started work on the EMD phase, it will still be several more years before the program will reach IOC….
“The clock really didn’t start in 2015; it’s starting roughly now,” Kendall said. “We think we’ll have capability by the end of the decade.”
The Air Force’s next-gen fighter has moved into a critical new phase
WASHINGTON — The Air Force’s secretive and highly classified Next Generation Air Dominance fighter program has started its crucial engineering and manufacturing development phase, Secretary Frank Kendall said Wednesday.
In a discussion at the Heritage Foundation, Kendall said the Air Force began early experimental prototyping on NGAD in 2015, when he was the Pentagon’s top acquisition official….
The technology has continued to progress, he said, and the NGAD effort is now envisioned as a “family of systems” incorporating several elements, including a handful of autonomous drone aircraft accompanying the manned aircraft in formation.
It typically takes the Air Force’s acquisition programs almost seven years to reach initial operating capability from the beginning of the EMD phase. Although the service has already been working on NGAD for about that long, because it just recently started work on the EMD phase, it will still be several more years before the program will reach IOC….
“The clock really didn’t start in 2015; it’s starting roughly now,” Kendall said. “We think we’ll have capability by the end of the decade.”
This also:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ters-new-stage
Seems to suggest that a section or flight in future may be one or two crewed jets and the rest loyal wingmen type aircraft.
Also links the chrome Raptors with NGAD... F-22 being used to trial a lot of the technology.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ters-new-stage
Seems to suggest that a section or flight in future may be one or two crewed jets and the rest loyal wingmen type aircraft.
Also links the chrome Raptors with NGAD... F-22 being used to trial a lot of the technology.
Should be renamed ‘Exponential Generation Air Dominance’, or E-GAD.
Laser attacks on civil aircraft/airliners are something that the PPRuNe community is very much against, and a decision was made long before I joined here to not promote word searches hitting PPRuNe with laser for a reason. I'll see if I can dig up an old discussion on that, but it's a decision made by the site owners / Powers That Be a long time ago.
[QUOTE=ORAC;11239336]https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022...cal-new-phase/
The Air Force’s next-gen fighter has moved into a critical new phase
Kendall said the Air Force began early experimental prototyping on NGAD in 2015,
The NGAD effort is now envisioned as a “family of systems” incorporating several elements, including a handful of autonomous drone aircraft accompanying the manned aircraft in formation.
Has a 'family of systems' ever resulted in anything really world beating?
When responsibility is diffused across a 'family' of products, none really work well, as everyone expects the other elements to make up for the individual deficiencies.
The Air Force’s next-gen fighter has moved into a critical new phase
Kendall said the Air Force began early experimental prototyping on NGAD in 2015,
The NGAD effort is now envisioned as a “family of systems” incorporating several elements, including a handful of autonomous drone aircraft accompanying the manned aircraft in formation.
Has a 'family of systems' ever resulted in anything really world beating?
When responsibility is diffused across a 'family' of products, none really work well, as everyone expects the other elements to make up for the individual deficiencies.
Lockheed Martin
Last edited by T28B; 28th Oct 2022 at 03:46. Reason: overkill
Evertonian