If no financial crisis
Thread Starter
If no financial crisis
If the credit crunch hadn't happened in 2008, where would we be now?
In terms of military posture, the SDSR may well have gone ahead in 2010, but quite likely under a Brown Government. The outcome (for all the history of the left and the armed forces) would likely be less far reaching in terms of cuts. Looking forward to the present from then, today the Tornado and Harrier would still be in service, the former in smaller number than as of 2010. The F-35 programme would continue apace but centred on Lossiemouth. Leuchars would have continued as normal with three Squadrons of Typhoons, however, the total number in service would likely have been halted at five squadrons plus OCU and OEU. Cottesmore would also likely have survived. Further, the Nimrod MRA4 would have been fully established at Kinloss. Likely, the Leuchars airshow would also have continued and been held today! That's also supposing no Covid 19. Correspondingly, the Army and Navy would also be bigger, the Navy would have taken receipt of two or three more T45 Destroyers, the Army would retain perhaps two additional Armoured Regiments and two or more Infantry Battalions. There would also be perhaps a greater emphasis on a more permanent and substantial NATO presence in Poland and the Baltic states. Likewise other NATO forces would have pursued their more expanded re-equipment programmes prior to the financial crash of 2008.
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In terms of military posture, the SDSR may well have gone ahead in 2010, but quite likely under a Brown Government. The outcome (for all the history of the left and the armed forces) would likely be less far reaching in terms of cuts. Looking forward to the present from then, today the Tornado and Harrier would still be in service, the former in smaller number than as of 2010. The F-35 programme would continue apace but centred on Lossiemouth. Leuchars would have continued as normal with three Squadrons of Typhoons, however, the total number in service would likely have been halted at five squadrons plus OCU and OEU. Cottesmore would also likely have survived. Further, the Nimrod MRA4 would have been fully established at Kinloss. Likely, the Leuchars airshow would also have continued and been held today! That's also supposing no Covid 19. Correspondingly, the Army and Navy would also be bigger, the Navy would have taken receipt of two or three more T45 Destroyers, the Army would retain perhaps two additional Armoured Regiments and two or more Infantry Battalions. There would also be perhaps a greater emphasis on a more permanent and substantial NATO presence in Poland and the Baltic states. Likewise other NATO forces would have pursued their more expanded re-equipment programmes prior to the financial crash of 2008.
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Well, for starters Harrier was scheduled to retire in 2019 and would have struggled to get even that far given the condition of the fleet post-HERRICK, which as I understand it was one of the reasons for it being cut in preference to Tornado (which at the time was due to go in 2025). MRA4 was unairworthy with no realistically affordable route to recovery. And I think you are also overestimating the influence of politicians on certain trends in Whitehall: for instance I suspect the so-called 'Heywood efficiencies', named for the Cabinet Secretary, would have gone through in 2015 regardless of which lot were in power. Reducing current "spending", ie wages, maintenance and support costs, has been on the Whitehall agenda ever since a certain G. Brown implemented resource accounting and budgeting. Labour liked to "invest" in big capital projects like the carriers but was almost as averse as the Tories to "spending" on in-service capabilities, because "spending" money is the sort needed for benefits and public sector wages. It's no coincidence that our combat aircraft fleets started dwindling in number soon after that accounting change.
Last edited by Easy Street; 12th Sep 2020 at 07:17.
Govt spending cannot continue on indefinietely. 2008 crash forced a rethink in spending but even then the reality is the service is living beyond its means. Current Govt is spending like there is no tomorrow BUT reality is bailiffs will be at the door looking for loans to to serviced.... note serviced not repaid.
UK Govt debt is now higher than GDP and this is before the Brexit shock to the economy.
Gordon Brown in building 2 carriers has hamstrung UK military with an expense that will take years to unwind because reality is £100 billion project has starved everything else of funding.
My guess based on current situation is by 2023 both carriers will be tied up in port for 90% of the year.
UK Govt debt is now higher than GDP and this is before the Brexit shock to the economy.
Gordon Brown in building 2 carriers has hamstrung UK military with an expense that will take years to unwind because reality is £100 billion project has starved everything else of funding.
My guess based on current situation is by 2023 both carriers will be tied up in port for 90% of the year.
Thread Starter
Easy Street, I imagine so, I recall the state of the Harriers and Tornados at the time, however, I wondered how long they may have hung on without the cuts of 2010. I'm not saying the Cameron Government did anything particularly radical of course, the point being the impact of the Sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA and what came about thereafter. There are other points of conjecture, as I said, Brown would have probably got an electoral mandate out of it instead of being consigned to the same position in History as, Callaghan, Douglas-Home and I think Eden? I reckon Cameron would have got in in 2015 and without the Lib Dems, also, as you point out Easy Street, there is always the likelihood that the evisceration of the jets would have continued over a period of time under Brown and then been slowed or halted even under Cameron, so we could be right where we are now anyway, but possibly with the number of Bases still largely unchanged, I'm sure far too much is squeezed onto Lossiemouth in particular. Another couple of what ifs, the SNP may not have got the independence vote in 2014 and should Cameron have become PM in 2015, perhaps there would have been no referendum on the EU. Not lamenting of course, just imagining how far history would have diverged but for the 2008 crash. I understand that if you could disappear say back to Ancient Rome at any point and as much as stepped off onto the soil then back in your time machine or should anyone have seen the machine, things would be radically different by the time to got back to the present.
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Easy Street, I imagine so, I recall the state of the Harriers and Tornados at the time, however, I wondered how long they may have hung on without the cuts of 2010. I'm not saying the Cameron Government did anything particularly radical of course, the point being the impact of the Sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA and what came about thereafter. There are other points of conjecture, as I said, Brown would have probably got an electoral mandate out of it instead of being consigned to the same position in History as, Callaghan, Douglas-Home and I think Eden? I reckon Cameron would have got in in 2015 and without the Lib Dems, also, as you point out Easy Street, there is always the likelihood that the evisceration of the jets would have continued over a period of time under Brown and then been slowed or halted even under Cameron, so we could be right where we are now anyway, but possibly with the number of Bases still largely unchanged, I'm sure far too much is squeezed onto Lossiemouth in particular. Another couple of what ifs, the SNP may not have got the independence vote in 2014 and should Cameron have become PM in 2015, perhaps there would have been no referendum on the EU. Not lamenting of course, just imagining how far history would have diverged but for the 2008 crash. I understand that if you could disappear say back to Ancient Rome at any point and as much as stepped off onto the soil then back in your time machine or should anyone have seen the machine, things would be radically different by the time to got back to the present.
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Question is what happens post 2021 crises ?
Brexit / 3 million plus unemployed / US $ collapse / Covid still around
Thread Starter
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Easy Street, I imagine so, I recall the state of the Harriers and Tornados at the time, however, I wondered how long they may have hung on without the cuts of 2010. I'm not saying the Cameron Government did anything particularly radical of course, the point being the impact of the Sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA and what came about thereafter. There are other points of conjecture, as I said, Brown would have probably got an electoral mandate out of it instead of being consigned to the same position in History as, Callaghan, Douglas-Home and I think Eden? I reckon Cameron would have got in in 2015 and without the Lib Dems, also, as you point out Easy Street, there is always the likelihood that the evisceration of the jets would have continued over a period of time under Brown and then been slowed or halted even under Cameron, so we could be right where we are now anyway, but possibly with the number of Bases still largely unchanged, I'm sure far too much is squeezed onto Lossiemouth in particular. Another couple of what ifs, the SNP may not have got the independence vote in 2014 and should Cameron have become PM in 2015, perhaps there would have been no referendum on the EU. Not lamenting of course, just imagining how far history would have diverged but for the 2008 crash. I understand that if you could disappear say back to Ancient Rome at any point and as much as stepped off onto the soil then back in your time machine or should anyone have seen the machine, things would be radically different by the time to got back to the present.
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the Conservatives' vote share remains the largest gained in any post-war election by any government (47/48% IIRC).
The reality of where the money goes is significantly different. Typhoon alone has taken more from the EP than carrier and first batch F35 combined.
Very special circumstances. Voters still remembered vividly 45 to 51, under Labour, the post-war debt state, exaggerated by the appalling 47 winter. rationing of virtually everything. Churchill came in, Festival of Britain, rationing was phased out. Post war gloom was monochrome, Conservative 50s Britain was Technicolour. Media were very gentle to politicians. An easy sell for the candidates.
Issue is one has been around for a while while another is just starting and will continue to use up defence budget for decades to come. Equipping both including acquiring tankers has used up £20 billion and expect cost of £1 billion a year without 10 year maintenance or anything else, whole life cost is £100 billion that is assumming they even get to that.
Thread Starter
It will be interesting to see where we are going with the defence review. One thing for sure, whatever the outcome I expect further significant changes should we get PM Starmer in 2023/24. Sir Keir's voting record on defence issues reveals he voted invariably against the deployment overseas of HM Forces under any circumstances and opposed the use of military force against Daesh/Isis.
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Historically Labour has bought/introduced a lot of big ticket items - Atomic weapons, NATO, Tornado, the carriers.......... I can't see the UK getting involved in a serious fashion in say the S China Sea /taiwan - which look like the most likely big flare points ahead
Issue is one has been around for a while while another is just starting and will continue to use up defence budget for decades to come. Equipping both including acquiring tankers has used up £20 billion and expect cost of £1 billion a year without 10 year maintenance or anything else, whole life cost is £100 billion that is assumming they even get to that.
Thread Starter
Historically Labour has bought/introduced a lot of big ticket items - Atomic weapons, NATO, Tornado, the carriers.......... I can't see the UK getting involved in a serious fashion in say the S China Sea /taiwan - which look like the most likely big flare points ahead
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Indeed, NATO was very much championed by Attlee and Bevin etc, along with the introduction of the nuclear deterrent. But, Bevan and others were keener to seek ties with Moscow. MRCA was started under Labour after they had ditched TSR2, F-111 and AVGF. That Labour Government also cancelled the two CVA-01 Carriers and reduced the Navy order for 120 Phantoms to about 28. Tornado was announced by Defence Secretary Denis Healy when it was MRCA, when it was Tornado, its development was continued through the Wilson and Callaghan governments, however, a Labour Defence Study Group recommended its complete abandonment and running on the Phantom and Jaguar to an indeterminable point in the future. This advice, indeed, was ignored. Tornado was eventually introduced into service by Margaret Thatcher's government and the full order of 385 aircraft was purchased. Through this era, Labour had introduced and were promising unilateral disarmament and heavy defence cuts and the removal of US nuclear weapons in the UK.
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When he was Defence Secretary Healey, and Wilson as PM, didn't ever really want to cancel F-111k or pull out of the Far East, they were forced to by the ever growing financial crisis that the UK was going through at the time. There were severe expenditure cuts right across Government, not just Defence.
Your little political snipe about this 'era' again replaces official Labour Party policy with the rhetoric of the Far left, who were never anywhere near power or policy. Wilson did not contend with the unilateralists, and his opinion of the nuclear deterrent was rapidly changed when he was voted in to power in 1964 and he became a firm supporter of the CASD, to the point of it being Labour who instigated the massive Chevaline project that equipped Polaris with MIRV and decoys and new UK designed and built warheads.
On coming to power for a second time in 1974 the Labour Defence cuts of that period were launched on the back of continuous Tory cuts in the defence budget; £66m in 1971, £82m in 1972, £163m in 1973 and £740m in 1974 in 3 tranches with a further £97m planned for after the election. Even that so called forces favourite Thatcher cut the defence budget in 1980, cancelling amongst other things Active Skyflash, Mark 2 Sea Dart and the third Lighting squadron, and all that before the truly disastrous Nott cuts of 1981, which promised so much damage to the RN that the Argentinians can only have been encouraged by what they saw.
F35B @ $100 million each a piece before spares.................. order 138
Carriers £7 Billion build costs
Tankers £600
This doesn't include the changes made in home port etc so $20 billion is not a dart board number.
On coming to power for a second time in 1974 the Labour Defence cuts of that period were launched on the back of continuous Tory cuts in the defence budget; £66m in 1971, £82m in 1972, £163m in 1973 and £740m in 1974 in 3 tranches with a further £97m planned for after the election. Even that so called forces favourite Thatcher cut the defence budget in 1980, cancelling amongst other things Active Skyflash, Mark 2 Sea Dart and the third Lighting squadron, and all that before the truly disastrous Nott cuts of 1981, which promised so much damage to the RN that the Argentinians can only have been encouraged by what they saw.
RR was building up a 500 ship navy while its biggest ally was selling their off.
More interesting is is the £1Bn pa op cost alluded to. Source?