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Iran

Old 16th May 2019, 21:36
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That is as may be, but not a justification for killing members of the populace
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Old 17th May 2019, 00:35
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Over the past 15 years, he has been Iran’s most influential powerbroker in Iraq and Syria, leading Tehran’s efforts to consolidate its presence in both countries and trying to reshape the region in its favour.......
Why is he not bonking 72 Virgins in the Hereafter?
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Old 17th May 2019, 03:27
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Iran is heavily involved in the Yemeni war amongst others. As has been remarked, a gentle people ruled by monsters.
So are the USA,UK,UAE, Jordan, Bahrain,Morocco, Egypt, Al Qaeda, Other extremist Sunni groups of now rebranded as freedom fighters, an ousted Yemeni government, various mercenaries from around the world and many more. Name me one of them that are not monsters.
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Old 17th May 2019, 15:03
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On the other hand...

Trump curbs hawks rushing towards conflict with Iran

Article in today's The Times.
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Old 17th May 2019, 15:46
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@LynehamLad: thanks for that link.
A related link quotes Former Sec Def Gates: (He always seemed to me to have a good head on his shoulders).
Robert Gates, ever a realist as US defence secretary from 2006 to 2011, once said that any Pentagon chief who advised an American president to launch another land invasion in the Middle East would need his head examined. After the prolonged insurgency in Iraq following the US-led invasion in 2003, Mr Gates had Iran in mind. Seven years ago, in retirement, he warned that any military strike against Iran, whether by the US or Israel, would have “catastrophic” consequences.
Despite his predecessor’s misgivings, Patrick Shanahan, the acting defence secretary who has now been selected by President Trump for the top job if confirmed by the Senate, has dusted off and revised the Pentagon’s contingency plan for military confrontation with Iran.
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Old 17th May 2019, 16:15
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I suppose the US DOD could just twiddle its collective Thumbs and hope Iran does not kick off the fracas and use that as Plan "A".

I very much hope they have Plans "B" thru "Z" on file and brought up to date in case Plan "A" is OTBE.
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Old 17th May 2019, 21:40
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Dear SASless:

There's a CONPLAN for just about everything.

Yours in deep psychic pain,
A retired field grade officer

(My brain still hurts, Mr Gumby, and it's been about 15 years since I touched one)
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:23
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IMHO, recent urgent visit of Pompeo to Russia and his talks not only with Lavrov (his counter-part), but with Putin too, was aimed at discussion about Iran, though it was not announced. If so, it is good that US are interested in deep analysis. But it is bad that a military option is still on the table.
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Old 18th May 2019, 07:57
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I think you always have a military option but you need to remember its the LAST resort and if you use it things rarely turn out as you'd planned , wished or hoped - it may be just better than the alternative

Wasn't it Isaac Asimov who wrote "violence is the last refuge of the incompetent"??
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Old 18th May 2019, 14:17
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But it is bad that a military option is still on the table.
How so?

Can one deal with Nutters like the Mullahs from anything but a position of strength?

Hand shakes can still be done while you hold a Mace in the other!


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Old 18th May 2019, 17:00
  #91 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ilian-aircraft

Iran says 'there will be no war' as US warns of risk to civilian aircraft

Iran’s foreign minister said on Saturday “there will be no war” with the US, since “nobody in the region is suffering from a hallucination to think that he is able to confront Iran”.

Nonetheless, US diplomats warned commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf that they faced a risk of being “misidentified” amid heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran.........

On Saturday, a warning from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) relayed by US diplomatic posts underlined increased risks in a region crucial to global air travel and where Lloyd’s of London has warned of increasing risk to maritime shipping.

The order relayed on Saturday by US diplomats in Kuwait and the UAE came from an FAA Notice to Airmen published late on Thursday. It said all commercial aircraft flying over the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman needed to be aware of “heightened military activities and increased political tension”. This presents “an increasing inadvertent risk to US civil aviation operations due to the potential for miscalculation or misidentification”, the warning said. It also said aircraft could experience interference with navigation instruments and communications jamming “with little to no warning”.

Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways all said they were aware of the notice and operations were unaffected. Oman Air did not respond to a request for comment.

The warning appeared rooted in what happened 30 years ago after Operation Praying Mantis, a daylong naval battle in the Persian Gulf between US forces and Iran during the country’s long war with Iraq. On 3 July 1988, the USS Vincennes chased Iranian speedboats, which allegedly opened fire on a helicopter, into Iranian territorial waters. The US ship then mistook an Iran Air plane heading to Dubai for an Iranian F-14. The Vincennes fired two missiles, killing all 290 people onboard the flight......


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Old 19th May 2019, 06:24
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Does anyone REALLY think the USA is about to start another war in the Middle East? Especially when the current president is mulling another 4 year stint?

Not a hope to be honest .............
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Old 22nd May 2019, 11:16
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Quote: "What is different about these drones?
This latest attack signifies a big jump in abilities as the drone flew more than 800km into Saudi Arabia to successfully attack its target. The drone was guided using satellite technology, as beyond a certain range, drones need a satellite data link for information to be sent back to the pilot.

Satellites technically allow drones to be flown from halfway around the world, as many military drones are, but they also need a second pilot station with line-of-sight access to take off and land. The is due to the delay in satellite communications - albeit minor - which causes delays that can be fatal for a drone coming in to land. The Iranians and Houthis have no known communications satellites and would need to rely on commercially available satellite space. All this means that imagery analysts, communications experts, uplink engineers, two-pilot crews, armourers and mechanics all need to work in unison for an attack to succeed.
This implies increasingly sophisticated levels of training.

On the subject of increasing drone sophistication, especially by Houthis trained by Iran, what do the honourable members feel about this article?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...055550113.html

(PS Sorry about the text size at the beginning but I cannot see any option in the editing bar.)
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Old 22nd May 2019, 13:25
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
The Iranians and Houthis have no known communications satellites and would need to rely on commercially available satellite space.
Unless they are leasing some time on, say, a Chinese one ...

(The [enclosed in square brackets} h2 ; / h2 is what was doing it to you)

For Asturias56
Does anyone REALLY think the USA is about to start another war in the Middle East?
Nope, which makes the "rabid dog" act Bolton is playing strike a lot of false notes.
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Old 22nd May 2019, 13:45
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Is there not a mobile phone system in the middle east which is satellite based rather than using terrestrial cells? Perhaps this is used for control and command of remote systems?
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Old 22nd May 2019, 15:10
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Thanks, Lonewolf_50.
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Old 24th May 2019, 19:39
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In the WSJ today:-
Trump Invokes Emergency Arms Sales Authority to Counter Iran

Extract:-
WASHINGTON—The Trump administration on Friday invoked a rarely used provision of American arms control laws to sidestep Congress and authorize billions of dollars in weapons sales to key Middle East allies, raising regional tensions and angering lawmakers who characterized the decision as an abuse of power, according to congressional sources.

Officials notified Congress that the administration is declaring an emergency under arms control laws amid tensions with Iran to rush through the weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two key allies in America’s intensifying confrontation with Iran.

People familiar with the details said the sale represents a broad package of 22 separate deals worth about $8 billion.
That will certainly help to calm things down...



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Old 24th May 2019, 21:53
  #98 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad

That will certainly help to calm things down...
Honestly Lyneham Lad, you're so suspicious. Next thing you know it'll be some wild theory about how convenient it is that Arms sales are bypassing Congress just as the Acting Sec Def turns out to be a former CEO of a major Defense Contractor...

/Perception is everything
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Old 25th May 2019, 09:43
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Nope, which makes the "rabid dog" act Bolton is playing strike a lot of false notes.
Bolton is Trump's tool to keep him in with the MIC, Trump has the dog on leash and yanked it quite hard in public regarding Venezuala and Iran.

Bolton wants a war but Trump will not give him that even when Bolton sets up a Liberty / Gulf of Tonkin incident. Bolton is of course a Chickenhawk from Vietnam days.
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Old 30th May 2019, 05:20
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In the absence of any official announcement, and reading between the lines from various different sources, I have picked up two hints as to what happened to the ships anchored outside Fujairah.

One article says they were limpet mines, and another said that the 'shrapnel' found was of the type used by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

A Japanese tanker was attacked in the Persian Gulf from behind in similar mysterious circumstances some years ago. At first sight no explosive residue. The Japanese ship looked as though it had been punched by a giant fist. The latest Norwegian ship looks like someone took a can opener to the stern at the water line. If these were meant to be a warning, with no loss of oil, then perhaps the explosive charge was lessened in some way. (?) Since 'they' hit ships 'to the east' of Fallujah in the Gulf of Oman, that would suggest to me that their escape route lay on that side.

The Houthis in Yemen probably do not yet have quite that reach. And if the US was threatening to cut off Iran's oil exports and passage through the Strait of Hormuz, then it would be logical for Iran to give the nod to any entity able to hit the end of the UAE's overland Hormuz-bypassing pipeline operations in Fujairah, if only as a tit-for-tat warning.
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