Iran

[Sam W]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

Can warships survive a transit through the Strait? Doesn't look like anyone thinks so, what with air and sea born drones, speedboats and missiles just off the coast. Especially as the latest NATO exercises with Ukraine they were able to sink some of our ships.
The Strait makes a good `kill zone` for the unwary.

From a wargame conducted in 2002 with Red being Iran(via Wikipedia):

Lt. Gen. Paul Van RiperRed, commanded by retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper, adopted an asymmetric strategy, in particular, simulating using old methods to evade Blue's sophisticated electronic surveillance network. Van Riper simulated using motorcycle messengers to transmit orders to front-line troops and World-War-II-style light signals to launch airplanes without radio communications in the model.

Red received an ultimatum from Blue, essentially a surrender document, demanding a response within 24 hours. Thus warned of Blue's approach, Red used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of Blue's fleet by the second day of the exercise. In a preemptive strike, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces' electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships: one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of Blue's six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of Blue's navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected.

​​​​​​​

[golder]

saying the quiet part out loud

What to know about Joe Kent, Trump's former counterterrorism chief | AP News
Resigning as director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center,

Kent said

Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation,” and he asserted that “we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

[dogle]

Herewith an interesting read on Qashem island, c/o aljazeera ( publication of Quatar, which must now be hurting badly for want of its LNG exports ) -
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2...logical-marvel

- this caused me to remember the efforts of the RAF radar team in Normandy shortly following D-Day, and those of the US Engineers both there ( enabling the ‘taxi rank’ CAS ) and in the Pacific theatre by constructing runways double-quick. ... lots of runway room on Qashem ... I wonder whether the rapid deployment of the USMC from afar might be related ... A10s, anyone?

[Lonewolf_50]

It would appear that beyond sports betting, war betting is taking shape in this lovely Information Age.
From the Washington Post:

The message appeared in English on Emanuel Fabian’s phone.
“You have 90 minutes left to update the lie,” said a WhatsApp message reviewed by The Washington Post. “If you do this — you solve in a minute the most serious problem you have caused yourself in life. And you won’t remember me anymore in a week.”

Five days earlier, Fabian, a 28-year-old war correspondent at the Times of Israel newspaper, had published a short blog post reporting that an Iranian missile had struck an open area outside a Jerusalem suburb, harming no one.

Until he began to receive messages that threatened his life and family, Fabian didn’t know his brief report had triggered a dispute over bets on the prediction market Polymarket on whether an Iranian missile would strike Israel on March 10.

For those with money down, millions of dollars were potentially riding on his blog post. Fabian was spooked enough by the threats to at least entertain the idea of revising his published reporting, he told The Post in a phone interview Monday. That could score a win for Polymarket users who had bet against a missile strike occurring that day — and at least one had offered to send Fabian a share of the profits.
Instead, he stood by his post, reported the threats to the police and wrote an article for the Times of Israel chronicling the harrowing experience. Fabian said he decided to publicize the story in the hope that “anyone who’s ever thinking about threatening a journalist will maybe think twice.”

How does one apply a point shaving scheme to a war? That's what was attempted there.

Now: what are the odds that someone takes a hammer to one of his knees for influencing their bet?

[Tu.114]

There are reports about Russia supporting Iran with satellite reconnaissance data and information on US bases in the Persian Gulf area. Also, the direction of Geran/Shahed drone deliveries appears reversed.

Russia has a lot to gain from the war against Iran. The global oil price is rising and with Mr Trump having given Russia a break from the sanctions, previously scarce money is again flowing into Mr Putins coffers, supporting his war against Ukraine. Also, Ukraine is receiving less equipment for their self-defense, the lack of Patriot missiles is sorely felt.

So Mr Trump not only has Iran attacked but also comes to the aid of Irans supporters. At the same time and by the same actions, he supports financing the Russian war against Ukraine, undermining the European efforts to support the Ukrainians, while complaining that they will not come to clear the Strait of Hormuz for him. And still, American weapons are sold to Europe for delivery to Ukraine.

Here is an Austrian caricaturists view on this.
(Subtitle: Putin is ready for negotiations again. Putin: "Well, Donald, it is my pleasure to help the worlds economy out. How much Ukraine do i get for this?")


I freely admit that I fail to understand the reasoning behind this but am very interested to learn if someone can explain.

[DogTailRed2]

You also have to wonder if Russia has slipped them anything interesting in terms of weaponry?

[flyingorthopod]

Strait of Hormuz solved with air power:

Here

[fdr]

Originally Posted by GeeRam

Or its broken down en-route....

UK news programmes this morning first thing were stating that Dragon was due to arrive off the coast of Cyprus today after its journey from UK, so if its sitting in Gib, its still 3 or 4 days away from Cyprus from whenever its departure from Gib will be.

HMS "Drags On" crew might be desirous of a name change, to say, "Bounty", there are some lovely islands in the Adriatic to go to for some time out, as would be pretty sure the moms of the crew of a skimmer going out to be a drone magnet will be none too pleased.

Stuff changed from February 2022, and apparently the message has not been received by those with wax in their ears that look at the risks of these "interventions" in this "excursion".

The fix for a prostate blockage in the Strait of Hormuz probably doesn't work as it used to do, grey targets floating by are just that, targets, and a game of whack-a-mole with 6 billion dollar flat tops vs 20-40K drones seems to be myopic. I would think you would need lots of lubricant for that examination. The solution once the scab ("excursion") has been pulled off the suppurating sore (Irans "nukular" ambitions) is probably not to add new divers delights as artificial reefs with the US CBGs, and attendant targets.

I would think that a quick whip around whatever adults remain in the upper echelon of the DOD Dept Of Whaaaa? might produce alternative facts as to what a smart person would do, like, really, what would Plato do?

This issue has been in "plane" sight since the Ukranians started teaching us about warfare in the 21st century; fighting this "excuse-ion" with the tools, tactics and mindset of the last "excuse-ion" as we are doing currently, seems so Stone Age. What would "Ukraine smart" look like? It probably won't look like a flat top as an inviting target for every person with a bit of a grudge against the operator of said flat top. It may be more point defence oriented to the shipping that is the other target, as an SM used to be a lot more expensive than the cost of a quad-copter with an RPG PLD, or even a shaheed or two. Sucks, but yesterday's tactics are not likely to be optimal or without consequences.

[[email protected]]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

Damn sneaky move, who would have thought that they would try such a thing?

Every US President in the last 40 years, partly because they weren't surrounded by buffoons.

[ORAC]

USNI update on the USS Ford:

https://news.usni.org/2026/03/17/uss...irs-after-fire

USS Gerald R. Ford Headed to Souda Bay for Repairs After Fire

Carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is preparing to leave the Red Sea to undergo repairs at the U.S. Navy base on Crete after a fire last week required several hours of damage control efforts, USNI News has learned.

Ford will travel to Naval Support Activity Souda Bay for more than a week of pierside repairs, a senior U.S. official confirmed to USNI News on Tuesday. The official confirmed a report in a local Greek news outlet that said Ford is returning to Crete.

The March 12 fire, which occurred in the aft laundry facility, resulted in a major damage control response that displaced sailors across the carrier and disrupted operations throughout the ship, the source confirmed to USNI News.

One sailor was medically evacuated from the carrier after being injured in the damage control effort and is in stable condition, while two others were treated for lacerations, another official told USNI News. More than 200 sailors were treated for smoke inhalation and returned to duty, two sources familiar with the fire response told USNI News.

“Ship’s force is inspecting and overhauling affected spaces, and the cause of the fire is under investigation,” a spokesperson for U.S. 5th Fleet told USNI News in a statement. “The ship continues to operate in the Red Sea, accomplishing U.S. Central Command tasking in support of Operation Epic Fury.”

The smoke damage extended to the berthing, requiring the Navy to take 1,000 mattresses off the future USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79) in Norfolk, Va., over the weekend to send to Ford, USNI News understands. The Navy has also collected almost 2,000 sweatsuits and other clothing items to distribute to the crew because many sailors are unable to clean their clothes with most of the laundry services out of commission, a source confirmed to USNI News.

“Due to the fire, several berthing spaces and subsequently, more than 100 racks (beds) were lost,” a Pentagon spokesperson told USNI News in a statement. “An immediate plan to acquire replacement cots has already been established. The resiliency and mental grit of our Sailors has enabled USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) to support ongoing operations.”

Initial communications about the fire suggested that Ford would need depot-level repairs, USNI News understands.……

[Professor Plum]

Originally Posted by flyingorthopod

Strait of Hormuz solved with air power:



Here

OPSEC!!

Crikey!

This shouldn’t be for divulging on open source forums

[Wyntor]

Still Confused

A few days ago 100% of Irans military capability had been destroyed - quoting POTUS.

Stand fast the dozens of ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones fired by Iran since then, we now hear, somewhat triumphantly, that US is chucking 5000lb bunker busters at coastal missile sites threatening the Strait.

Is there any objective assessment of the level of degradation of Iran's capability as it clearly is someway South of the historically claimed 100%.

Got to think those nations declining the option to provide targets in the Strait have a bleaker view of current status.

[MPN11]

I suspect their mobile launcers have a part to play in that disparity of view.

[Skeleton]

No matter how much equipment is lost or damaged and how much it costs to lose it, the loss of life on both sides is far more important. One assumes Trump was briefed on the possible losses and still chose to go ahead.

[AR1]

Originally Posted by MPN11

I suspect their mobile launcers have a part to play in that disparity of view.

Exactly. I heard from a political source recently, that the UK should go after the archer, not catch the arrows. I gasped at this because a lot of this stuff is coming off mobile launchers. What the high level person was really saying, either through ignorance or sleight of tounge, is that we now commit forces into seek and destroy missions, multiplying the required assets in theater, actively going into the countries of origin and therefore needing to deconflict with the ongoing operations.
Effectively we become part of the war.

[TURIN]

Who knew the UK had a Space Command, a Space Warning Squadron or a Space Operations Squadron?

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by AR1

Exactly. I heard from a political source recently, that the UK should go after the archer, not catch the arrows. I gasped at this because a lot of this stuff is coming off mobile launchers. What the high level person was really saying, either through ignorance or sleight of tounge, is that we now commit forces into seek and destroy missions, multiplying the required assets in theater, actively going into the countries of origin and therefore needing to deconflict with the ongoing operations.
Effectively we become part of the war.

This is the problem - victory can't be claimed while the Iranians can still threaten the Straits, and how do you take out all their mobile launchers and the other relatively low tech threats.

[Bergerie1]

I don't think the war is winnable, there has to be a political settlement. It is the only way.

[Cornish Jack]

Originally Posted by Wyntor

A few days ago 100% of Irans military capability had been destroyed - quoting POTUS.

Stand fast the dozens of ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones fired by Iran since then, we now hear, somewhat triumphantly, that US is chucking 5000lb bunker busters at coastal missile sites threatening the Strait.

Is there any objective assessment of the level of degradation of Iran's capability as it clearly is someway South of the historically claimed 100%.

Got to think those nations declining the option to provide targets in the Strait have a bleaker view of current status.

This "matter has been brought to our attention" several times by Mr D J Trump with his assertion that Iran's forces "have been decimated" It is unfortunate that Mr Trump's personalised command of English prevents his understanding that, to"decimate", means "to reduce by one in ten" ...
... of such pedantry are errors made

[EDLB]

This would take a WW2 style and size ground force. Since Russia is an ally to Iran a ground force invasion will quick turn into a Ukraine style drone ground war nightmare. I can not envision that Trump would survive the mid term ballot and sure turn into a sitting duck for the last part of his term. A ground invasion will become a lot worse than the middle east wars before. I have no idea why Trump did take this risk. He boxed himself into a corner with little escape outlook.