Weekly grocery shop delivered to door by Drone ?
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Guys I think some of you guys don't quite get the resources that these squillionaires have backing them up.
There are a reasons why huge companies spend huge money on R&D, and it is not always to innovate new products/technologies.
Take good ol Branson.
Innovated a fancy dan speed boat - it sank.
Innovated a fancy dan ballon thing - it sorta crashed.
Innovated a spaceship - it did crash.
And none of these things have FA to do with his core business, which is operating boring old technologies (trains, airlines) which he did not invent, and which have been around for yonks.
So why does he splash all this wonga...obviously to build his Virgin Brand and keep the big old red logo in our faces 365/24/7. Which he does to amazing effect.
Whether that is all it is with this Amazon drone thing remains to be seen, but for sure it is a massive part of it. It is Amazon's Marketing Department's job to be seen to be constantly innovating, to be seen as the number one online retailer beyond the competition of anybody else.
Consider the business economics for a minute. Amazon have innovated an amazingly cheap, multi-channel, delivery structure. At no capital cost they can utilize zero hour contracted drivers in their own vehicles, as well as all the sub contracted permanent deliverers. They have a growing army of online retailers who will handle deliveries and returns for next to no cost to get round the "not-at-home" during the day issue, simply to drive footfall in their retail premises.
Once the technology has been perfected, yer drones will have to compete with this system on one factor and only one factor - cost.
That's how business works, buddy. And on that you do love to cherry pick peoples posts don't ya. Is that a touch of cognitive bias you have there?
That there early prototype, which is clearly no even close to an operational model, costs $43K. What is it working lifespan? What are the maintenance costs? Compare that to geezer being paid £10 an hour, with zero capital outlay and you might start to understand the gulf that has to be closed, cost wise.
Last edited by The Old Fat One; 30th Jul 2016 at 07:57.
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Take good ol Branson.
Innovated a fancy dan speed boat - it sank.
Innovated a fancy dan ballon thing - it sorta crashed.
Innovated a spaceship - it did crash.
And none of these things have FA to do with his core business, which is operating boring old technologies (trains, airlines) which he did not invent, and which have been around for yonks.
So why does he splash all this wonga...obviously to build his Virgin Brand and keep the big old red logo in our faces 365/24/7. Which he does to amazing effect.
Innovated a fancy dan speed boat - it sank.
Innovated a fancy dan ballon thing - it sorta crashed.
Innovated a spaceship - it did crash.
And none of these things have FA to do with his core business, which is operating boring old technologies (trains, airlines) which he did not invent, and which have been around for yonks.
So why does he splash all this wonga...obviously to build his Virgin Brand and keep the big old red logo in our faces 365/24/7. Which he does to amazing effect.
I think he likes to do daredevil things (good for him! wish I could.) I think he then finds ways to allay/mitigate the cost by turning it into advertising his brand. He also does daredevil things without fanfare when they are affordable without justification.
However, since you bring up Branson despite him not being even notionally in the same league as Bezos, lets go through your argument.
1. You say his core business is trains and airlines.
That's funny, because I thought his core business was selling records.
Oh, wait a minute, wasn't it Cola?
No, surely its radio?
Rockets?
Or is it one of the myriad of other businesses that have held the Virgin brand.
My point is that just because Amazon started out selling Books, does not mean that that is where it will stay. Bezos is currently into Space (Blue Origin. Is that just an advertising gimmick?)
Physical books has morphed into ebooks which has morphed into ereaders and tablets and Amazon now sells much much more than books which are now only a small and shrinking part of the business.
Yes Branson does a lot of brand promotion, he even promotes things he knows will never happen like Virgin buying the Concorde. He knew that it was a non starter yet milked it.
Now look at Amazon.
Show me a single instance where they or their respective oligarch have splashily advertised and failed to follow though.
They, like Google, Facebook, Apple, etc don't tend to over-promise.
Consider the business economics for a minute. Amazon have innovated an amazingly cheap, multi-channel, delivery structure. At no capital cost they can utilize zero hour contracted drivers in their own vehicles, as well as all the sub contracted permanent deliverers. They have a growing army of online retailers who will handle deliveries and returns for next to no cost to get round the "not-at-home" during the day issue, simply to drive footfall in their retail premises.
Once the technology has been perfected, yer drones will have to compete with this system on one factor and only one factor - cost.
There are a huge number of factors favouring drones if they can be made to work
The ability to order online and have delivered into your hand within 30mins day or night is an enormous draw.
Perhaps you have never wasted days waiting for delivery drivers who cannot give you better than half day windows, but for many of us we would go with the supplier that would deliver right now into my hand when I am home. Not just that but I would pay extra for the convenience.
An 80% drop in delivery vans in any city will be welcomed by everybody for the benefits to congestion.
An 80% drop in the pollution from the vans will have a major effect.
How many people are killed every year by delivery vans?
That there early prototype, which is clearly no even close to an operational model, costs $43K. What is it working lifespan? What are the maintenance costs? Compare that to geezer being paid £10 an hour, with zero capital outlay and you might start to understand the gulf that has to be closed, cost wise.
Right, cost.
Lets make the silly assumption that the drone actually stays at £43K (ludicrous, but why not to make the point?)
Let's even go with your figure of £10 per hour for the driver. (also obviously false because a van will burn more than £10 per hour in fuel let alone pay for the purchase of the truck and salary for the driver, but hey, I'm willing to accept your imaginary numbers.)
So it needs to work for 430hrs to break even with the truck driver.
17 days later you are in profit......
Lets not even mention the speed of delivery being vastly quicker in any city traffic thus many more deliveries per hour.
I think you need to go visit a dictionary.
Cognitive bias is where you ignore evidence that does not agree with your preconceptions.
Once you exhibit a single piece of evidence to support your opinion, then you can accuse me of cognitive bias.
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TOFO
We are never going to agree, how about a wager?
July 2021, either you send me a £100 Amazon voucher by drone if they exist, or I send you a £100 Amazon voucher by van if they don't and the winner donates it to a charity of their choice?
We are never going to agree, how about a wager?
July 2021, either you send me a £100 Amazon voucher by drone if they exist, or I send you a £100 Amazon voucher by van if they don't and the winner donates it to a charity of their choice?
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Whichever way the discussion goes, can people please post nicely?
it's a great discussion, even if not exactly Mil Aviation, but disagreement can be done by everyone without being overtly confrontational.
it's a great discussion, even if not exactly Mil Aviation, but disagreement can be done by everyone without being overtly confrontational.
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In the US, Amazon already has a far cheaper method to deliver packages than using drones. And it is subsidized by US taxpayers. They pay the US Postal Service to deliver packages on Sunday.
It?s Amazon?s World. The USPS Just Delivers in It - Bloomberg
It?s Amazon?s World. The USPS Just Delivers in It - Bloomberg
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Wager
We are never going to agree, how about a wager?
July 2021, either you send me a £100 Amazon voucher by drone if they exist, or I send you a £100 Amazon voucher by van if they don't and the winner donates it to a charity of their choice?
July 2021, either you send me a £100 Amazon voucher by drone if they exist, or I send you a £100 Amazon voucher by van if they don't and the winner donates it to a charity of their choice?
Sun.
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You win Tourist. I know squat. I decline your wager on the grounds of boredom.
I think the debate was conducted nicely...but for sure it has little to do with military aviation and it has now become a borefest, which is largely my fault, for failing to realise how pointless my posts are.
Later XX
I think the debate was conducted nicely...but for sure it has little to do with military aviation and it has now become a borefest, which is largely my fault, for failing to realise how pointless my posts are.
Later XX
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Perhaps even further from Military Aviation is this quote from Oliver Pritchett's article in today's Sunday Telegraph, an amusing end-user's take on the proposal:
Droning on
It will be tremendously exciting when all deliveries are handled by drones. By the time this comes to pass, our intelligent wheelie bins will be able to sign for things. This will be a blessing. When I try to write on these new gadgets where you use a stylus to put your signature on a skiddy screen it always looks like a picture of a snake falling downstairs. I’m sure a wheelie bin could do better than that. And it will be great when we get the “Sorry We Missed You” message as a text to our phone, instead of on a card hidden under a mound of junk leaflets. Then it won’t be long before every household in the land will have its own “returns” drone. The skies will be full of clothes that didn’t fit.
Of course there are bound to be teething troubles. No doubt the arrival of the drone will set off other devices; the curtains will open and close, the TV will automatically set to record Flog It, the central heating thermostat will be turned down and the electric carving knife will leap into action, but these things will soon be sorted.
In the early days, however, it may be advisable not to ask for the premium super-fast delivery; the drone could come crashing through your front window, drop its package and fly about the room like a panicked pigeon.
Of course, they are bound to want feedback, to hear how satisfied we are with the service. Don’t worry – the clever wheelie bin can handle that side of things.
It will be tremendously exciting when all deliveries are handled by drones. By the time this comes to pass, our intelligent wheelie bins will be able to sign for things. This will be a blessing. When I try to write on these new gadgets where you use a stylus to put your signature on a skiddy screen it always looks like a picture of a snake falling downstairs. I’m sure a wheelie bin could do better than that. And it will be great when we get the “Sorry We Missed You” message as a text to our phone, instead of on a card hidden under a mound of junk leaflets. Then it won’t be long before every household in the land will have its own “returns” drone. The skies will be full of clothes that didn’t fit.
Of course there are bound to be teething troubles. No doubt the arrival of the drone will set off other devices; the curtains will open and close, the TV will automatically set to record Flog It, the central heating thermostat will be turned down and the electric carving knife will leap into action, but these things will soon be sorted.
In the early days, however, it may be advisable not to ask for the premium super-fast delivery; the drone could come crashing through your front window, drop its package and fly about the room like a panicked pigeon.
Of course, they are bound to want feedback, to hear how satisfied we are with the service. Don’t worry – the clever wheelie bin can handle that side of things.
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Weekly grocery shop delivered to the shop by Drone ?
GENTLEMEN, GENTLEMEN, WE ARE ALL FRIENDS HERE (or should be !)
When I opened this Thread, I had no idea that it would develop in this acerbic fashion, despite MPN11's timely remonstration, and am very sorry that it has done so.
I have now reported it to the Moderators for their attention.
Danny42C.
