Labour plan for airborne deterrent?
Credibility
Surely the measure of any deterrent is its credibility and survivability in any particular scenario?
An air based deterrent is of course vulnerable to a first strike. Largely, this was the reason for the switch to SSBN in the first place? A SSBN is not vulnerable to a first strike - at the minute?
Now an air launched deterrent would give greater flexibility in response to any particular attack, but whether that makes up for its vulnerability to being wiped out by a carefully planned first strike, I would not know.
I would assume a dispersal plan would be in place in times of International tension, but that assumes that any first strike would occur then, rather than as a 'bolt from the blue'.
TO
An air based deterrent is of course vulnerable to a first strike. Largely, this was the reason for the switch to SSBN in the first place? A SSBN is not vulnerable to a first strike - at the minute?
Now an air launched deterrent would give greater flexibility in response to any particular attack, but whether that makes up for its vulnerability to being wiped out by a carefully planned first strike, I would not know.
I would assume a dispersal plan would be in place in times of International tension, but that assumes that any first strike would occur then, rather than as a 'bolt from the blue'.
TO
Thread Starter
Drone technology a threat to Trident submarines, MPs to be told | UK Politics | News | The Independent
Naturally the Independent would support the Labour line. However, the drones that are referred to in the link I'd have thought would be against Hunter Killer Subs? Which would attempt to close in on Allied shipping, hence the drones would have a set area/square to search around the likely target. But a Strategic Nuclear Submarine... surely it can launch its attack from anywhere? or almost anywhere, so without having the faintest idea of any such vessel's likely whereabouts, any drones or other tracking devices would have nowhere specific to search! i.e. looking for the proverbial needle in a giant hay stack.
Thoughts!??!!?
FB
Naturally the Independent would support the Labour line. However, the drones that are referred to in the link I'd have thought would be against Hunter Killer Subs? Which would attempt to close in on Allied shipping, hence the drones would have a set area/square to search around the likely target. But a Strategic Nuclear Submarine... surely it can launch its attack from anywhere? or almost anywhere, so without having the faintest idea of any such vessel's likely whereabouts, any drones or other tracking devices would have nowhere specific to search! i.e. looking for the proverbial needle in a giant hay stack.
Thoughts!??!!?
FB
With regards to drones, we know more about the moon than we do the Oceans. They are very, very big, and with a tiny submarine intentionally designed to go to sea and dissapear and not be found, its not easy to find at the best of times.
Saying drones pose a threat to SSBN is like saying that martian death rays pose a threat to JSF. Unmanned technology, particularly underwater is in its infancy, has an incredibly long way to go to be mature, and doesnt get you away from the problem that even if you find it, you still need to kill it. The size of funding required to solve the problem is eyewatering to put it mildly.
Saying drones pose a threat to SSBN is like saying that martian death rays pose a threat to JSF. Unmanned technology, particularly underwater is in its infancy, has an incredibly long way to go to be mature, and doesnt get you away from the problem that even if you find it, you still need to kill it. The size of funding required to solve the problem is eyewatering to put it mildly.
With regards to drones, we know more about the moon than we do the Oceans. They are very, very big, and with a tiny submarine intentionally designed to go to sea and dissapear and not be found, its not easy to find at the best of times.
Saying drones pose a threat to SSBN is like saying that martian death rays pose a threat to JSF. Unmanned technology, particularly underwater is in its infancy, has an incredibly long way to go to be mature, and doesnt get you away from the problem that even if you find it, you still need to kill it. The size of funding required to solve the problem is eyewatering to put it mildly.
Saying drones pose a threat to SSBN is like saying that martian death rays pose a threat to JSF. Unmanned technology, particularly underwater is in its infancy, has an incredibly long way to go to be mature, and doesnt get you away from the problem that even if you find it, you still need to kill it. The size of funding required to solve the problem is eyewatering to put it mildly.
The problem with drone technology is the requirement for an umbilical to the drone from a mothership. As we all know the propagation of radio waves underwater is poor to non-existant, light is impractical and sound would reveal the position of the mothership. As you say the oceans are very very big places. Identification of your target well magine a blue on blue underwater.
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We have not the infrastructure, location, security personnel, security culture, operational support, training capacity or proven platform to accommodate such a task.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Jayand, really much the same problem as aircraft - range, immediacy, vulnerability.
The latter was what did for Blue Steel; slow missiles can be intercepted and shot down.
On range this was less an issue with a simple enemy with a well developed target set. How would you deter several nuclear powers each with a long range, or long enough, delivery system?
And immediacy, you might argue that launch on warning is so last war and we could afford to wait until a strike. Indeed with the potential for conventional or certain WMD you might consider a nuclear response excessive. However anticipating retaliation in minutes is the whole raison d'etre for deterrence.
The latter was what did for Blue Steel; slow missiles can be intercepted and shot down.
On range this was less an issue with a simple enemy with a well developed target set. How would you deter several nuclear powers each with a long range, or long enough, delivery system?
And immediacy, you might argue that launch on warning is so last war and we could afford to wait until a strike. Indeed with the potential for conventional or certain WMD you might consider a nuclear response excessive. However anticipating retaliation in minutes is the whole raison d'etre for deterrence.
There's also the small consideration that at a time of heightened tension any inbound cruise missile would have to be regarded by the target country as potentially nuclear armed. As if the situation wouldn't be sufficiently squeaky-bum already.
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Underwater Drones
I am getting confused here, an underwater drone has it is alleged got the ability to detect an SSBN or indeed implicitly any submarine, so what is stopping this technology being deployed to say the UK's Astute class fleet submarines?
If this is "Drone technology" is believable surely it is better to have it housed in a difficult to detect, self powered, human controlled submarine?
The difficulties of communicating with a drone in times of tension is an interesting concept, what is the drone programmed to do, surface and listen out for the Today Program, if there is no Today Program go hunting for SSBNs and destroy them with .... also how does the drone distinguish between different nationalities of SSBNs?
If this is "Drone technology" is believable surely it is better to have it housed in a difficult to detect, self powered, human controlled submarine?
The difficulties of communicating with a drone in times of tension is an interesting concept, what is the drone programmed to do, surface and listen out for the Today Program, if there is no Today Program go hunting for SSBNs and destroy them with .... also how does the drone distinguish between different nationalities of SSBNs?
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Astutes already have expendable drones, they even have the ability to kill the target though range and endurance is limited.
Whilst researching the availability of unmanned sub-hunters I came across the Swedish Bofors Torpedo 2000.
This amazing weapon is propelled by HTP and oil fuel, it has a swashplate motor and has wire communication to the launch vessel.
Marvellous! But wait; weren't we working on exactly the same torpedo technology over sixty years ago?
p.s. HTP is dangerous, unstable stuff and caused the sinking of HMS Sidon and the Russian Submarine Kursk.
The Germans called it T-stoff; should have been instabil stoff.
This amazing weapon is propelled by HTP and oil fuel, it has a swashplate motor and has wire communication to the launch vessel.
Marvellous! But wait; weren't we working on exactly the same torpedo technology over sixty years ago?
p.s. HTP is dangerous, unstable stuff and caused the sinking of HMS Sidon and the Russian Submarine Kursk.
The Germans called it T-stoff; should have been instabil stoff.
I don't understand the assertion that a drone needs to be tethered, or that it would have to search the ocean.
The article makes it clear that work is going on into autonomous drones. As to searching the ocean - how about deploying offshore of the target sub base and catching them as they sortie ? I'm sure all sorts of precautions are taken to avoid picking up a tail, but that might be harder against a shoal of small quiet drones.
Of course there is the range aspect, but you could also imagine a tag-team model, where one drone is replaced by another (air-delivered) as it comes to the end of its range. Possibly all science-fiction at the moment - but maybe not completely impossible in the future.
The article makes it clear that work is going on into autonomous drones. As to searching the ocean - how about deploying offshore of the target sub base and catching them as they sortie ? I'm sure all sorts of precautions are taken to avoid picking up a tail, but that might be harder against a shoal of small quiet drones.
Of course there is the range aspect, but you could also imagine a tag-team model, where one drone is replaced by another (air-delivered) as it comes to the end of its range. Possibly all science-fiction at the moment - but maybe not completely impossible in the future.
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Frost chamber, and how during increased periods of tension are our adversaries meant to know if an airborne F35 is carrying a Nuke warhead? I am talking about Astute launched Tlam as an alternative to air launched, it must be cheaper given the costs of developing F35C, carriers etc. It also still gives us an at sea deterrent that enemies don't know location. Yes Tlam is easier to shoot down but with correct stealth positioning by Astute you get most of the world coverage without having to advertise your intentions by deploying aircraft, carrier group etc.