Turkey's Unwinnable War
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Turkey's Unwinnable War
Turkey’s unwinnable war
ISTANBUL — If 2016 is anything like the year that just passed, we are in for real trouble.
Beneath the world’s radar, a serious insurgency has been simmering in Turkey’s Kurdish regions for months. Urban clashes, with three or four casualties each time, are a daily occurrence. Youth groups affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) are controlling parts of major Kurdish cities, fighting government forces for greater autonomy. And the Turkish government is responding with a harsh military crackdown that not only targets the militia but ends up affecting civilians.
Things are looking far from stable in the most stable country in the region.
But somehow, the fact that NATO’s second-largest army is fully mobilized on the Syrian border in a war against 16-year-old kids with AK-47s who have carved out “liberated zones” in their neighborhoods is getting almost no coverage in international media. European institutions — happy that they secured a money-for-refugees deal with Ankara last November — are mum, and Washington is unwilling to rock the boat in its complicated relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The Turkish government has, of course, been fighting the PKK for decades; and the tranquility over the past few years was a result of the peace negotiations between the two sides, which abruptly ended this summer. Each side blames the other for ending the ceasefire, but the truth is that neither is much in control of the catastrophe we are witnessing now.
Even for a decades-long war, this is a whole new level of escalation. Let me explain. Much of what took place in the 1990s was in the countryside, between Kurdish guerrillas and army units. This time, it is urban, just as deadly, and far more explosive.
To be clear: We are not talking about a skirmish here or there; this is a conflict about tanks, artillery, snipers and heavy fire in densely populated areas. Last month, the Ministry of Education sent text messages telling over 3,000 public school teachers doing mandatory service in restless Kurdish towns to leave. Schools are shut down and thousands of students have no access to education.
And then there are the curfews, which last for days. According to Turkey’s Human Rights Foundation, there have been 52 intermittent curfews in seven Kurdish towns where 1.3 million people live, sometimes lasting as long as 14 days. The organization puts the civilian death toll since the summer at 124.
One of Turkey’s leading human rights lawyers, Tahir Elçi, died in November when he was caught in crossfire between police and PKK militias in the meandering streets of Diyarbakir’s old town — moments after he finished a press conference asking for a cessation of hostilities in urban areas.
I feel nervous even admitting this to myself but some of the photographs coming out of the region have an unnerving similarity to early images from Syria in 2011 — with buildings bearing signs of last night’s fighting or smoke rising on the horizon from gray, concrete-colored towns...............
ISTANBUL — If 2016 is anything like the year that just passed, we are in for real trouble.
Beneath the world’s radar, a serious insurgency has been simmering in Turkey’s Kurdish regions for months. Urban clashes, with three or four casualties each time, are a daily occurrence. Youth groups affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) are controlling parts of major Kurdish cities, fighting government forces for greater autonomy. And the Turkish government is responding with a harsh military crackdown that not only targets the militia but ends up affecting civilians.
Things are looking far from stable in the most stable country in the region.
But somehow, the fact that NATO’s second-largest army is fully mobilized on the Syrian border in a war against 16-year-old kids with AK-47s who have carved out “liberated zones” in their neighborhoods is getting almost no coverage in international media. European institutions — happy that they secured a money-for-refugees deal with Ankara last November — are mum, and Washington is unwilling to rock the boat in its complicated relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The Turkish government has, of course, been fighting the PKK for decades; and the tranquility over the past few years was a result of the peace negotiations between the two sides, which abruptly ended this summer. Each side blames the other for ending the ceasefire, but the truth is that neither is much in control of the catastrophe we are witnessing now.
Even for a decades-long war, this is a whole new level of escalation. Let me explain. Much of what took place in the 1990s was in the countryside, between Kurdish guerrillas and army units. This time, it is urban, just as deadly, and far more explosive.
To be clear: We are not talking about a skirmish here or there; this is a conflict about tanks, artillery, snipers and heavy fire in densely populated areas. Last month, the Ministry of Education sent text messages telling over 3,000 public school teachers doing mandatory service in restless Kurdish towns to leave. Schools are shut down and thousands of students have no access to education.
And then there are the curfews, which last for days. According to Turkey’s Human Rights Foundation, there have been 52 intermittent curfews in seven Kurdish towns where 1.3 million people live, sometimes lasting as long as 14 days. The organization puts the civilian death toll since the summer at 124.
One of Turkey’s leading human rights lawyers, Tahir Elçi, died in November when he was caught in crossfire between police and PKK militias in the meandering streets of Diyarbakir’s old town — moments after he finished a press conference asking for a cessation of hostilities in urban areas.
I feel nervous even admitting this to myself but some of the photographs coming out of the region have an unnerving similarity to early images from Syria in 2011 — with buildings bearing signs of last night’s fighting or smoke rising on the horizon from gray, concrete-colored towns...............
ORAC, thank you for posting the link to this article. Turkey is yet another corner of the Middle East that is going into seeming self destruction. That it borders Europe and is a NATO member adds to the concern.
All that not withstanding, all the text in your post, as well as the link, are by Asli Aydintasbas rather than by you. We are quite able to follow your link to read his article, and you may indeed wish to highlight certain parts in quotation, but I for one would rather read your take on the situation in Turkey rather than simply regurgitating the article by Mr Aydintasbas.
Just a thought...
All that not withstanding, all the text in your post, as well as the link, are by Asli Aydintasbas rather than by you. We are quite able to follow your link to read his article, and you may indeed wish to highlight certain parts in quotation, but I for one would rather read your take on the situation in Turkey rather than simply regurgitating the article by Mr Aydintasbas.
Just a thought...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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My take? Erdogan sees Turkey as the successor to the Ottomans and decided to involve himself in the disputes in the region - and is now inevitably being sucked into the maelstrom. Add in the dispute between Saudi and Iran and Russian involvement and the possibilities of an accidental escalation pulling in Gulf and external powers are dangerously high.....
Thank you ORAC, and far more interesting than the OP, though that rather concentrated on the internal struggle of the Kurds who see opportunity in the chaos that you describe. What concerns me is what assurances they have been given by the west, particularly the USA, in return for providing Cameron's "Boots on the Ground".
All they want is piece; a piece of Turkey, a piece of Iraq, a piece of Syria, and a piece of Iran. I can't think of anything more likely to stoke up trouble for the next 100 years than if they were to get their wish for an independent Kurdistan. It will make the founding of Israel look like a well thought out bit of Realpolitik. With its usual deftness in these matters can we depend upon the White House to bring even more chaos out of the existing chaos?
All they want is piece; a piece of Turkey, a piece of Iraq, a piece of Syria, and a piece of Iran. I can't think of anything more likely to stoke up trouble for the next 100 years than if they were to get their wish for an independent Kurdistan. It will make the founding of Israel look like a well thought out bit of Realpolitik. With its usual deftness in these matters can we depend upon the White House to bring even more chaos out of the existing chaos?
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After a 2 year ceasefire, Erdogan broke it and started bombing the PKK under the pretence of joining the fight against ISIS. The fact that this happened during his re-election campaign must surely just be coincidence. If the Kurds are now blowing up chunks of Turkey in response, there's only the President to blame, I feel.
For those of us who served in Cyprus in the early 70's who can avoid questioning the seeming fast tracking of Turkey to EU membership as they continue to illegally occupy part of a fellow EU member state ? It seems that in the rush to knock the Syrian regime over, all previous, and continuing crimes are to be overlooked. With respect to current issues on the mainland, it seems that while "the west" are happy to laud the Turks as allies, they also credit the Kurds as part of the "friendly" ground forces we support. Oh what a tangled web we weave seems most appropriate.
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smujsmith wrote: Oh what a tangled web we weave seems most appropriate.
A Gordian knot has been created, but there is a solution - perhaps...but will it be a fresh problem in disguise?
A Gordian knot has been created, but there is a solution - perhaps...but will it be a fresh problem in disguise?
Just been in TRNC for a week and went up the panhandle to Oasis, a very small holiday complex - restaurant and half a dozen letting rooms on the cliff top. All now have heating thanks to an EU funded solar electric project. staggered I was.
the seeming fast tracking of Turkey to EU membership
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Erdođan definitely sees Turkey as a regional hegemon (his words) and views many of the problems facing the region, and Turkey in particular, as part of a British Plot. He refers, as does his state influenced media, to the Treaty of Sevres of 1919 as evidence of Ýngiliz perfidy. Erdođan is investing heavily in (re) extending Turkish influence in the Balkans (a significant cadre of the BiH army officer corps is trained in Turkey) and the country has a significant interest in Somalia, as well as establishing a base in Qatar.
Turkey wants to be respected (and not patronized). It wants to be respected for its military prowess - which I think is debatable - and under Erdođan, it seeks to be the leader of the Sunni world. A pious but progressive state, where the 'glories' of the Ozman zaman (ottoman period) are relived.
The PKK recommenced operations in July against the Turkish government, after several years of 'lid-ism' where the General Staff confronted Erdođan (as PM) and demanded that he took action in response to numerous PKK incidents. He chose to respond to support his domestic political agenda - especially in the run-up to the November elections, based on Security and stability'.
However, the Russian involvement in Syria has been - as it happens - a useful distraction. Fitful TURAF attacks against ÝŢID stopped when the Russians pitched up and effectively blocked Syrian airspace to TURAF F16s, allowing resources to be diverted to anti PKK operations. Heavy armour, expected to go onto Iraq's Nineveh province was promptly moved to siege duties on SE Turkey. Since July over 200 police and troops have been killed.
However, lets not forget that the PKK are a proscribed organization in the UK and SO15 have been very active against them. The PKL rely on their 'good Kurds' image in the West, conflating anti-Daesh actions of the KRG Peshmerga with their own. There's now the spectre of Russian-back Kurdish groups fighting the Syrian opposition....what could go wrong?
Turkey wants to be respected (and not patronized). It wants to be respected for its military prowess - which I think is debatable - and under Erdođan, it seeks to be the leader of the Sunni world. A pious but progressive state, where the 'glories' of the Ozman zaman (ottoman period) are relived.
The PKK recommenced operations in July against the Turkish government, after several years of 'lid-ism' where the General Staff confronted Erdođan (as PM) and demanded that he took action in response to numerous PKK incidents. He chose to respond to support his domestic political agenda - especially in the run-up to the November elections, based on Security and stability'.
However, the Russian involvement in Syria has been - as it happens - a useful distraction. Fitful TURAF attacks against ÝŢID stopped when the Russians pitched up and effectively blocked Syrian airspace to TURAF F16s, allowing resources to be diverted to anti PKK operations. Heavy armour, expected to go onto Iraq's Nineveh province was promptly moved to siege duties on SE Turkey. Since July over 200 police and troops have been killed.
However, lets not forget that the PKK are a proscribed organization in the UK and SO15 have been very active against them. The PKL rely on their 'good Kurds' image in the West, conflating anti-Daesh actions of the KRG Peshmerga with their own. There's now the spectre of Russian-back Kurdish groups fighting the Syrian opposition....what could go wrong?
Last edited by Whenurhappy; 11th Jan 2016 at 23:33.
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"Part of a British plot..." How reassuring, the thought there might still be some Kiplingesque Eastern ruler sat in his palace cursing perfidious Albion's wicked power-mongering. If only!
I hate to correct you, but I did write it, putting the correct accents in (I speak Turkish...courtesy of the RAF) but they've morphed into Cyrillic, possibly. My knowledge of Turkey is fairly recent and I monitor it in a professional sense. I'm no fan of Erdogan nor of the Kemalist General Staff who talk fondly of 'military interventions' - what we call coups. If you want to know more, please PM me.
There's the widespread belief in Turkey that Britain is direct controlled by the Queen. Erdogan, in the run-up to the June elections, stated that he wanted to be more like the Queen,passing laws without the unnecessary delays of Parliament!
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My apologies too, whenurhappy as I'd thought exactly the same thing...But don't think you can just waltz onto this forum offering informed opinion and knowing what you're talking about. That's not how we do things here.