Russia repositions border taking over more of Georgia overnight
We have mil assistance missions all over the world. A decision to deploy combat formations is what I was referring to.
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I hadn't noticed ORAC's question 81.
Remember the game that Putin is playing in the Ukraine: He is using local separatists to do a lot of the fighting, organise government etc. It's his hope that this will be seen as a local initiative. And there is plenty of local support for this region to become Russian.
While I think that Putin probably will happily stop at the Dnieper, there are a lot of ethnic Russians along the south coast to Odessa. Odessa itself was very Russian. He may not be in a position to stop them from going that far. And I doubt that he would bother stopping them. I do think that in the not too far distant future though, West Ukraine might be able to take back the south coast as far as the Dnieper.
Remember the game that Putin is playing in the Ukraine: He is using local separatists to do a lot of the fighting, organise government etc. It's his hope that this will be seen as a local initiative. And there is plenty of local support for this region to become Russian.
While I think that Putin probably will happily stop at the Dnieper, there are a lot of ethnic Russians along the south coast to Odessa. Odessa itself was very Russian. He may not be in a position to stop them from going that far. And I doubt that he would bother stopping them. I do think that in the not too far distant future though, West Ukraine might be able to take back the south coast as far as the Dnieper.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Not really an answer RF, in fact an apologist evasion by supporting the fiction that the majority of the fighters are separatists rather than Russian troops with all their equipment. The separatists can't advance an inch without Putins backing - and the recent artillery barrages are Russian army fired.
It would seem you suspect I am right about their intentions - and getting the excuses in early. Poor old Putin, he wanted them to stop but no one listens to him anymore....
It would seem you suspect I am right about their intentions - and getting the excuses in early. Poor old Putin, he wanted them to stop but no one listens to him anymore....
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OK, so we first conquer Ukraine, occupy it, and rebuild it over two generations while disagreeing with the Russians on how to reunify the place.
Ukraine and Georgia are both sovereign countries with so called elected governments. They can have defense pacts and foreign troops on their soil if they like. We can supply weapons to them if we like.
At the moment we are doing squat except pouring aid money into a place with no end in site.
Also, I honestly think that deploying troops, specifically American troops, into the Ukraine plays in to Putin's hands politically.
his is all happening in Europe, so what do the European leading nations think? Are they willing to put their troops into Ukraine? If not, why should Americans do so? I see no reason.
If you decide that there is a chance you are going to have to act you have decide when.
1)When its small and you can head it off but little public support.
2) When its getting nasty and is going to be expensive but still with little public support.
3) When you have no choice in the matter and your very existence is at stake but with lots of public support.
I personal prefer number 1. Apparently Merkal has stated she would prefer a economic development solution along the lines of post Germany WW2 model, someone should enlighten her that requires the conditions for that to happen.
We keep moaning about so called superpowers and old ways etc. If you could get enough nations to throw troops in as a buffer then it can be seen as a non yank thing. Now we know that won't happen, but maybe they should stop winging about superpowers and world policeman if their not prepared to step up and help.
True, but at the end of the day the Europeans have history of not doing anything until they have no choice, and then requiring outside help at great cost to put right.
rh200:-
West Coast:-
You might just as well rail against "South Americans" who also inhabit a continent of disunited nations. That was so at the start of WWII, and is just as true of the 90s. The only institution that has ever managed to get the "Europeans" working together in any cohesive way for their combined security was NATO, when they were all faced with a common threat in the Cold War. If Putin ramps up the threat to anything approaching that level again, the only hope for Europe will be once again a revitalised NATO.
There is no such super-state as Europe, and to talk of Europeans just as we talk of Americans is to make a false analogy. The first inhabit nations of different cultures, languages, histories, and beliefs. The second inhabit one nation (the USA) from different cultures, languages, histories, and beliefs. The first will never become the second despite the agenda of a few, and the US in particular needs to take that on board if it is to have any realistic understanding of European realpolitik.
True, but at the end of the day the Europeans have history of not doing anything until they have no choice, and then requiring outside help at great cost to put right.
At first blush most will think you're referring to WWII or earlier when the truth is you only need go back to the 90s to validate the statement.
There is no such super-state as Europe, and to talk of Europeans just as we talk of Americans is to make a false analogy. The first inhabit nations of different cultures, languages, histories, and beliefs. The second inhabit one nation (the USA) from different cultures, languages, histories, and beliefs. The first will never become the second despite the agenda of a few, and the US in particular needs to take that on board if it is to have any realistic understanding of European realpolitik.
Last edited by Chugalug2; 15th Aug 2015 at 08:36.
Chug
I largely agree with your thoughts. One would think that if anything would quickly galvanize political will towards a common goal, it would be genocide in your own backyard. Situations such as Rwanda were tragic but inaction was predictable, that it happened again in Europe was appalling given the resources, proximity and past history. That it took outside influence to force Europe to act collectively is a powerful reminder that despite organizations such as the EU that Europe is far from a singular voice. This even when the stakes were at the highest.
I largely agree with your thoughts. One would think that if anything would quickly galvanize political will towards a common goal, it would be genocide in your own backyard. Situations such as Rwanda were tragic but inaction was predictable, that it happened again in Europe was appalling given the resources, proximity and past history. That it took outside influence to force Europe to act collectively is a powerful reminder that despite organizations such as the EU that Europe is far from a singular voice. This even when the stakes were at the highest.
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We have mil assistance missions all over the world. A decision to deploy combat formations is what I was referring to.
However, the "training forces" providing the "mil assistance mission" are paratroops. In a sense, a "combat formation" is already on the ground in Ukraine.
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You might just as well rail against "South Americans" who also inhabit a continent of disunited nations. That was so at the start of WWII, and is just as true of the 90s. The only institution that has ever managed to get the "Europeans" working together in any cohesive way for their combined security was NATO, when they were all faced with a common threat in the Cold War. If Putin ramps up the threat to anything approaching that level again, the only hope for Europe will be once again a revitalised NATO.
Here's an interesting interview with the Swedish Defense Chief on that very subject.
The Russia Threat
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In this interview with the Swedish Defense Chief another interesting analogy surfaced between Herr Adolf of the past and Mr. Vlad of today.
The Russia Threat
Both Adolf and Vlad are convinced that the populations of their nations are "morally superior" to the populations surrounding them, thus justifying belligerent or outright hostile actions against their neighbors.
The Russia Threat
Both Adolf and Vlad are convinced that the populations of their nations are "morally superior" to the populations surrounding them, thus justifying belligerent or outright hostile actions against their neighbors.
KenV:-
They are not the only ones that feel/felt morally superior, so also those nations that, faced with a showdown between democratic nations and dictator led police states, professed themselves to be neutral. No doubt that neutrality would have rapidly swung in favour of the dictator led police states had they prevailed. The words cake and eat come to mind...
Both Adolf and Vlad are convinced that the populations of their nations are "morally superior" to the populations surrounding them
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Both Adolf and Vlad are convinced that the populations of their nations are "morally superior" to the populations surrounding them, thus justifying belligerent or outright hostile actions against their neighbors.
The Huggly fluffies like to use it to justify all sorts of changes in our societys.
It has been a belief of mine that we in the west are changing to quickly, hence the change in culture across our societies is becoming to great, and causing undue negative social issues.
The problem is, that it makes it harder for outside moderates within our potential enemies to go down our path. The hardliners just have to show a multitude of western media clips to cause disgust amongst whatever it is they are raging against. This is true for the "Islamic" and "Russian" problem.
