Russia threatening Denmark with a nuclear strike
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
WARSAW — Romanian Defense Minister Mircea Dusa is aiming to restore conscription as a result of Russia's increased military activities in Eastern Europe and its intervention in Ukraine, reports local daily Gandul.
The planned move would follow similar initiatives in other Eastern European countries. In Lithuania, the country's parliament passed a bill in March to temporarily restore conscription for a period of at least five years. Lithuania's Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevičius said the decision resulted from "changes in the geopolitical situation in the region," which forced the country to increase its "defense capacity in response."
Meanwhile, Czech Defense Minister Martin Stropnicky has announced plans to increase the Czech Republic's troop level from the current 16,600 to as much as 27,000 by 2025. The government may also revive conscription, as there are ongoing discussions on the measure.........
The planned move would follow similar initiatives in other Eastern European countries. In Lithuania, the country's parliament passed a bill in March to temporarily restore conscription for a period of at least five years. Lithuania's Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevičius said the decision resulted from "changes in the geopolitical situation in the region," which forced the country to increase its "defense capacity in response."
Meanwhile, Czech Defense Minister Martin Stropnicky has announced plans to increase the Czech Republic's troop level from the current 16,600 to as much as 27,000 by 2025. The government may also revive conscription, as there are ongoing discussions on the measure.........
The core reason I see that it won't happen is how the Greeks view The Turk as their most troubling threat. More than one Greek colleague in NATO observed to me, privately, that they were sure we, NATO, were backing the wrong horse in Bosnia/Former Yugoslavia.
If the Greeks want to restore their cultural links to the Russians (their national churches are very closely related, Gr and Ru Orthodox) along with a special financial relationship they are free to.
Question is: is that really what they want? I've no idea.
Everyone forgets that it didn't used to be like this.
In the 1990s Russians barely had a bad word for the West in general and yes, even the United States, in fact they loved us and the world was a better happier place for it, and the Russians were our new best friends.
Then this happened:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO..._of_Yugoslavia
and suddenly the Russians watched what they believed was an out-of-control NATO randomly bombing one of their former allies, killing countless civilians in the process - and pow, we were the enemy again. Things have not changed since then.
The Russians have a very simple mentality, and one that is paranoid in equal measure. They are convinced that NATO is out to get them, they point to the bombing of Belgrade plus the planned expansion of NATO member states and now they see people putting American made interceptor missiles on their borders thereby reducing the effectiveness of Russian nuclear forces. It all paints a picture for them, an ugly one.
Combine all of that with Putin's bellicose rhetoric and the way the West has been kicking the Russian economy around, putting them under even more pressure, and the situation is actually a lot more dangerous than most people give it credit for.
In the 1990s Russians barely had a bad word for the West in general and yes, even the United States, in fact they loved us and the world was a better happier place for it, and the Russians were our new best friends.
Then this happened:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO..._of_Yugoslavia
and suddenly the Russians watched what they believed was an out-of-control NATO randomly bombing one of their former allies, killing countless civilians in the process - and pow, we were the enemy again. Things have not changed since then.
The Russians have a very simple mentality, and one that is paranoid in equal measure. They are convinced that NATO is out to get them, they point to the bombing of Belgrade plus the planned expansion of NATO member states and now they see people putting American made interceptor missiles on their borders thereby reducing the effectiveness of Russian nuclear forces. It all paints a picture for them, an ugly one.
Combine all of that with Putin's bellicose rhetoric and the way the West has been kicking the Russian economy around, putting them under even more pressure, and the situation is actually a lot more dangerous than most people give it credit for.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: London, New York, Paris, Moscow.
Posts: 3,632
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"The aim of a NATO missile defence capability is to provide full coverage and protection for all NATO European populations, territory and forces against the increasing threats posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles"
Remind us how many times Russia was asked [and invited] to join the ballistic missile shield program.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49635.htm
Remind us how many times Russia was asked [and invited] to join the ballistic missile shield program.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49635.htm
Russia has enough conventional power to obliterate Denmark without firing up nukes. It's true that couple of nukes are cheaper than thousands of conventional missiles but political price would be enormous, if it wouldn't start WWIII that said.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: UK on a crosswind
Posts: 262
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The west is and NATO is and has never been a threat to Russia in the traditional sense. The powers to be in Russia are not stupid and know this.
It is a threat with ideas and freedom, and in some sense their culture, a bit like how the senior Islamists see us now. As such they use various means to push their agenda, using the military threat scenario is a old one but a good one.
I think that rh200 has this about right.
I think Putin is the best leader the Russians could have. He isn't "expansionist", he merely wants secure, defensible borders. Long history from Napoleon through Hitler has taught the Russians to ensure their borders are secure. They want to protect their borders long before an enemy crosses their actual border - and who can blame them?
The current situation is not a re-run of the Cold War, it is Putin ensuring that everyone understands that his country is strong enough not to be pushed around.
I served through the Cold War period, I remember it. Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans. We were bled dry by the Americans during WW II and we have been led by the nose by them ever since they persuaded us with what we now clearly understand to have been lies (connived at by our own politicians) into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya - all of which have proved futile and are backfiring.
I am strongly opposed to us joining the Americans in their attempts to beat everyone into submission. I am equally opposed to our being in the EU. We can run our own country, our own way, and make our own friends that suit the best interests of our own people.
I think Putin is doing nothing more than that for his people and we should ignore Americans wanting to re-live the Cold War.
It is a threat with ideas and freedom, and in some sense their culture, a bit like how the senior Islamists see us now. As such they use various means to push their agenda, using the military threat scenario is a old one but a good one.
I think that rh200 has this about right.
I think Putin is the best leader the Russians could have. He isn't "expansionist", he merely wants secure, defensible borders. Long history from Napoleon through Hitler has taught the Russians to ensure their borders are secure. They want to protect their borders long before an enemy crosses their actual border - and who can blame them?
The current situation is not a re-run of the Cold War, it is Putin ensuring that everyone understands that his country is strong enough not to be pushed around.
I served through the Cold War period, I remember it. Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans. We were bled dry by the Americans during WW II and we have been led by the nose by them ever since they persuaded us with what we now clearly understand to have been lies (connived at by our own politicians) into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya - all of which have proved futile and are backfiring.
I am strongly opposed to us joining the Americans in their attempts to beat everyone into submission. I am equally opposed to our being in the EU. We can run our own country, our own way, and make our own friends that suit the best interests of our own people.
I think Putin is doing nothing more than that for his people and we should ignore Americans wanting to re-live the Cold War.
I think Putin is the best leader the Russians could have. He isn't "expansionist", he merely wants secure, defensible borders
Rubbish. The Russians have made many comments that Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the other formers parts of the Russian Empire are artificial states that shouldn't exist.
Putin wants the return of the Soviet/Russian Empire. Currently Russian is occupying Transnistria, Georgia and Ukraine and he's threatened the Baltic states, Poland, Denmark and Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
Not Expansionist, my arse.
Certainly the best leader the Russians can get, because thats what they want - a colonial master.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Now is when it gets dangerous. Putin needs a war and an external enemy, and he is now just a border await from Saudi - and their oilfields.........
Russia retreats to autarky as poverty looms
Russia is running out of money. President Vladimir Putin is taking a strategic gamble, depleting the Kremlin's last reserve funds to cover the budget and to pay for an escalating war in Syria at the same time.
The three big rating agencies have all issued alerts over recent days, warning that the country's public finances are deteriorating fast and furiously. There is no prospect of an oil revival as long as Saudi Arabia continues to flood the market. Russia cannot borrow abroad at a viable cost. Standard & Poor's says the budget deficit will balloon to 4.4pc of GDP this year, including short-falls in local government spending and social security. The government has committed a further $40bn to bailing out the banking system.
Deficits on this scale are manageable for rich economies with deep capital markets. It is another story for Russia in the midst of a commodity slump and a geopolitical showdown with the West. Oil and gas revenues cover half the budget. "They can't afford to run deficits at all. By the end of next year there won’t be any money left in the oil reserve fund," said Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit. The finance ministry admits that the funds will be exhausted within sixteen months on current policies.
Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister, said the Kremlin has no means of raising large loans to ride out the oil bust. The pool of internal savings is pitifully small. Any attempt to raise funds from the banking system would aggravate the credit crunch. He described the latest efforts to squeeze more money out of Russia's energy companies as the "end of the road". Mr Kudrin resigned in 2011 in protest over Russia's military build-up, fearing that it would test public finances to breaking point. Events are unfolding much as he suggested.
Russia is pressing ahead with massive rearmament, pushing defence spending towards 5pc of GDP and risking the sort of military overstretch that bankrupted the Soviet Union. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said the military budget for 2014 rose 8.1pc in real terms to $84bn as the Kremlin took delivery of new Su-34 long-range combat aircraft and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. It is to rise by another 15pc this year, led by a 60pc surge in arms procurement. This is an astonishing ambition at a time when the economy is in deep crisis, contracting by 4.6pc over the last twelve months.
Mr Putin paired back the plans earlier this year but has since restored the original target, telling a VTB Capital forum this week that the economy has hit bottom and "things are looking up." Diplomats say the reality is that wars in Syria and Ukraine are eating into the budget. Cruise missiles are not cheap.
Mr Putin knows he cannot count on oil and gas any longer, belatedly recognizing that shale technology in the US threatens to cap crude prices for a decade or more, and has effectively destroyed Russia's petro-power business model. The Kremlin has gone back to the drawing board, working from the Spartan assumption that oil will remain stuck at $50 a barrel for the next three years.
It could be even worse. Russia's central bank warned in a report that it may take $30 oil to stop the US shale juggernaut. The central bank’s “risk scenario” talks of a new era of sub-$40 crude that would entrench the current depression. “Under these conditions, GDP could fall by more than 5pc in 2016,” it said.
Mr Putin claims to have an ace up his sleeve: Russia will fall back on industrial self-reliance and import substitution. “Our policies are not frozen. They adapt to circumstances,” he said.
The Kremlin is launching a radical plan to slash imports across twenty key sectors within five years, ranging from heavy machinery to electrical engineering, photonics, cars, tractors, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and food. The targets are drastic. Reliance on foreign farm and forestry machinery is to be cut by 56pc, food processing by 53pc, and engineering equipment by 34pc. State procurement contracts will be steered to companies that produce in the country, whether or not they compete on quality.
But the switch-over costs money that the government does not have. Viktor Semenov from the Belaya Dacha Group said his agro-conglomerate is raking in big subsidies to grow lettuces in the Siberian heartland of Novosibirsk, relying on heated greenhouses to fight temperatures of minus 20 degrees. "We're building 250 hectares of hothouses a year on my farms," he said. Whether it makes sense is anybody's guess. The same vegetables could be imported more cheaply from Turkey.
Trade experts are already shaking their heads. Such a reflex usually means a country is going badly off the rails, though Germany pulled it off with macabre success in the 1930s. “In most of the cases I have known import substitution policies have failed. They degrade the economy," said Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organisation.
Russia has pockets of excellence - currently on display in the Syrian theatre - but the engineering and industrial base of the Soviet era has largely been hollowed out by an overvalued rouble during the commodity boom. It has been a textbook case of the Dutch Disease. Many of the best engineers and technicians have emigrated in a chronic brain-drain. Russian economists say it is far from clear whether the country can suddenly pirouette and manufacture the machines itself. Vladislav Inozemtsev, from the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, said the likely outcome is a retreat into autarky and pauperised decline, ending in withdrawal from the global trading system. “This way leads us towards a quasi-Soviet economy detached from the world and, at the same time, proud of its autarky; towards a deteriorating economy which compensates for the drop in living standards with pervasive propaganda,” he wrote.
Mr Putin is counting on a 50pc devaluation since early 2014 to restore lost competitiveness and ignite a manufacturing renaissance. Having presided over a destructively-strong rouble for a decade, he has now embraced the virtues of a weak currency with the zeal of the converted.
Oleg Deripaska, chief of the aluminium group Rusal, said it is wishful thinking to suppose that a cheap rouble can kick-start an economy caught in a tangle of red-tape, crying out for root-and-branch reform and the rule of law. “We should stop looking at the exchange rate and give some thought to the economic policy we really need. Nobody is going to borrow at 12pc in hard currency to invest,” he said. The chief effect has been to shrink the Russian economy in global terms. “GDP was $2.3 trillion at the peak. It is now $1.2 trillion, and I fear we are going back to the level of 1998 when it was $700bn,” he said. This would be smaller than Holland ($850bn) or half the size of Texas ($1.4 trillion), a remarkable state of affairs for a country vying for superpower military status in Europe and the Middle East.
Igor Sechin, the head of oil giant Rosneft, said devaluation is a false strategy, adding sarcastically that if it was so good to halve the rouble from 30 to 60 against the dollar, why not just keep going and push it all the way to 100. “That would be a dream wouldn’t it?” he said.
In a sense, Mr Putin has little choice. He cannot afford burn through foreign reserves to defend the rouble. They have already fallen from $520bn to $371bn. Standard & Poor's said two-fifths of this money is ear-marked for other functions and cannot be deemed "usable". These reserves look large on paper but are near the minimum safe levels needed to uphold confidence and to cover foreign debt redemptions of Russian companies, running at $12bn to $15bn a quarter.
What is clear is that Russia’s attempt to reinvent itself as an industrial tiger will take years to bear fruit, if it is possible at all. The early evidence is dismal, though Ford has announced that it will start building engines for the Fiesta later this year at its Russian joint venture in Elabuga.
Non-energy exports plunged by 25pc in the third quarter. “This is a vivid illustration of the economy’s deep recession and lack of competitiveness,” said Eldar Vakhitov from BNP Paribas. “Theoretically, rouble weakness should have supported competitiveness of non-oil exports; in reality, it did not help at all,” he said. Russia's capital stock is so badly eroded that the devaluation may leak into price rises and 'stagflation' without boosting output.
Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, said the floating rouble had acted as “shock absorber” when the crisis hit. It is a pre-condition for recovery, but is not enough in itself without deep reform. “We have to swallow the bitter pill,” she said. What is disturbing is that companies have seen a rise in windfall profits of almost 40pc this year from devaluation but investment has dropped by 6.7pc. They are paying off debt and battening down the hatches instead. “Why are they not investing? This is the main question for economic policy in Russia,” she said at the VTB Capital forum.
Polls suggest that Mr Putin remains popular but the full force of the crisis has only started to hit home, and he can no longer keep putting off the choice between guns and butter. Real incomes have dropped by 9.8pc over the last year. Food prices have jumped 17pc. Ivan Starikov, the former deputy economy minister, said the true inflation rate is near 30pc. “We are rapidly approaching the fateful mark where of 50pc of the average Russian family's income will be spent on food. We have again become a country of poor people,” he said.
Russia retreats to autarky as poverty looms
Russia is running out of money. President Vladimir Putin is taking a strategic gamble, depleting the Kremlin's last reserve funds to cover the budget and to pay for an escalating war in Syria at the same time.
The three big rating agencies have all issued alerts over recent days, warning that the country's public finances are deteriorating fast and furiously. There is no prospect of an oil revival as long as Saudi Arabia continues to flood the market. Russia cannot borrow abroad at a viable cost. Standard & Poor's says the budget deficit will balloon to 4.4pc of GDP this year, including short-falls in local government spending and social security. The government has committed a further $40bn to bailing out the banking system.
Deficits on this scale are manageable for rich economies with deep capital markets. It is another story for Russia in the midst of a commodity slump and a geopolitical showdown with the West. Oil and gas revenues cover half the budget. "They can't afford to run deficits at all. By the end of next year there won’t be any money left in the oil reserve fund," said Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit. The finance ministry admits that the funds will be exhausted within sixteen months on current policies.
Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister, said the Kremlin has no means of raising large loans to ride out the oil bust. The pool of internal savings is pitifully small. Any attempt to raise funds from the banking system would aggravate the credit crunch. He described the latest efforts to squeeze more money out of Russia's energy companies as the "end of the road". Mr Kudrin resigned in 2011 in protest over Russia's military build-up, fearing that it would test public finances to breaking point. Events are unfolding much as he suggested.
Russia is pressing ahead with massive rearmament, pushing defence spending towards 5pc of GDP and risking the sort of military overstretch that bankrupted the Soviet Union. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said the military budget for 2014 rose 8.1pc in real terms to $84bn as the Kremlin took delivery of new Su-34 long-range combat aircraft and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. It is to rise by another 15pc this year, led by a 60pc surge in arms procurement. This is an astonishing ambition at a time when the economy is in deep crisis, contracting by 4.6pc over the last twelve months.
Mr Putin paired back the plans earlier this year but has since restored the original target, telling a VTB Capital forum this week that the economy has hit bottom and "things are looking up." Diplomats say the reality is that wars in Syria and Ukraine are eating into the budget. Cruise missiles are not cheap.
Mr Putin knows he cannot count on oil and gas any longer, belatedly recognizing that shale technology in the US threatens to cap crude prices for a decade or more, and has effectively destroyed Russia's petro-power business model. The Kremlin has gone back to the drawing board, working from the Spartan assumption that oil will remain stuck at $50 a barrel for the next three years.
It could be even worse. Russia's central bank warned in a report that it may take $30 oil to stop the US shale juggernaut. The central bank’s “risk scenario” talks of a new era of sub-$40 crude that would entrench the current depression. “Under these conditions, GDP could fall by more than 5pc in 2016,” it said.
Mr Putin claims to have an ace up his sleeve: Russia will fall back on industrial self-reliance and import substitution. “Our policies are not frozen. They adapt to circumstances,” he said.
The Kremlin is launching a radical plan to slash imports across twenty key sectors within five years, ranging from heavy machinery to electrical engineering, photonics, cars, tractors, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and food. The targets are drastic. Reliance on foreign farm and forestry machinery is to be cut by 56pc, food processing by 53pc, and engineering equipment by 34pc. State procurement contracts will be steered to companies that produce in the country, whether or not they compete on quality.
But the switch-over costs money that the government does not have. Viktor Semenov from the Belaya Dacha Group said his agro-conglomerate is raking in big subsidies to grow lettuces in the Siberian heartland of Novosibirsk, relying on heated greenhouses to fight temperatures of minus 20 degrees. "We're building 250 hectares of hothouses a year on my farms," he said. Whether it makes sense is anybody's guess. The same vegetables could be imported more cheaply from Turkey.
Trade experts are already shaking their heads. Such a reflex usually means a country is going badly off the rails, though Germany pulled it off with macabre success in the 1930s. “In most of the cases I have known import substitution policies have failed. They degrade the economy," said Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organisation.
Russia has pockets of excellence - currently on display in the Syrian theatre - but the engineering and industrial base of the Soviet era has largely been hollowed out by an overvalued rouble during the commodity boom. It has been a textbook case of the Dutch Disease. Many of the best engineers and technicians have emigrated in a chronic brain-drain. Russian economists say it is far from clear whether the country can suddenly pirouette and manufacture the machines itself. Vladislav Inozemtsev, from the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, said the likely outcome is a retreat into autarky and pauperised decline, ending in withdrawal from the global trading system. “This way leads us towards a quasi-Soviet economy detached from the world and, at the same time, proud of its autarky; towards a deteriorating economy which compensates for the drop in living standards with pervasive propaganda,” he wrote.
Mr Putin is counting on a 50pc devaluation since early 2014 to restore lost competitiveness and ignite a manufacturing renaissance. Having presided over a destructively-strong rouble for a decade, he has now embraced the virtues of a weak currency with the zeal of the converted.
Oleg Deripaska, chief of the aluminium group Rusal, said it is wishful thinking to suppose that a cheap rouble can kick-start an economy caught in a tangle of red-tape, crying out for root-and-branch reform and the rule of law. “We should stop looking at the exchange rate and give some thought to the economic policy we really need. Nobody is going to borrow at 12pc in hard currency to invest,” he said. The chief effect has been to shrink the Russian economy in global terms. “GDP was $2.3 trillion at the peak. It is now $1.2 trillion, and I fear we are going back to the level of 1998 when it was $700bn,” he said. This would be smaller than Holland ($850bn) or half the size of Texas ($1.4 trillion), a remarkable state of affairs for a country vying for superpower military status in Europe and the Middle East.
Igor Sechin, the head of oil giant Rosneft, said devaluation is a false strategy, adding sarcastically that if it was so good to halve the rouble from 30 to 60 against the dollar, why not just keep going and push it all the way to 100. “That would be a dream wouldn’t it?” he said.
In a sense, Mr Putin has little choice. He cannot afford burn through foreign reserves to defend the rouble. They have already fallen from $520bn to $371bn. Standard & Poor's said two-fifths of this money is ear-marked for other functions and cannot be deemed "usable". These reserves look large on paper but are near the minimum safe levels needed to uphold confidence and to cover foreign debt redemptions of Russian companies, running at $12bn to $15bn a quarter.
What is clear is that Russia’s attempt to reinvent itself as an industrial tiger will take years to bear fruit, if it is possible at all. The early evidence is dismal, though Ford has announced that it will start building engines for the Fiesta later this year at its Russian joint venture in Elabuga.
Non-energy exports plunged by 25pc in the third quarter. “This is a vivid illustration of the economy’s deep recession and lack of competitiveness,” said Eldar Vakhitov from BNP Paribas. “Theoretically, rouble weakness should have supported competitiveness of non-oil exports; in reality, it did not help at all,” he said. Russia's capital stock is so badly eroded that the devaluation may leak into price rises and 'stagflation' without boosting output.
Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, said the floating rouble had acted as “shock absorber” when the crisis hit. It is a pre-condition for recovery, but is not enough in itself without deep reform. “We have to swallow the bitter pill,” she said. What is disturbing is that companies have seen a rise in windfall profits of almost 40pc this year from devaluation but investment has dropped by 6.7pc. They are paying off debt and battening down the hatches instead. “Why are they not investing? This is the main question for economic policy in Russia,” she said at the VTB Capital forum.
Polls suggest that Mr Putin remains popular but the full force of the crisis has only started to hit home, and he can no longer keep putting off the choice between guns and butter. Real incomes have dropped by 9.8pc over the last year. Food prices have jumped 17pc. Ivan Starikov, the former deputy economy minister, said the true inflation rate is near 30pc. “We are rapidly approaching the fateful mark where of 50pc of the average Russian family's income will be spent on food. We have again become a country of poor people,” he said.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Robert Fisk in the Independent: Everyone wrote off the Syrian army. Take another look now
All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure in the Middle East
While the world still rages on at Russia’s presumption in the Middle East – to intervene in Syria instead of letting the Americans decide which dictators should survive or die – we’ve all been forgetting the one institution in that Arab land which continues to function and protect the state which Moscow has decided to preserve: the Syrian army. While Russia has been propagandising its missiles, the Syrian military, undermanned and undergunned a few months ago, has suddenly moved on to the offensive. Earlier this year, we may remember, this same army was being written off, the Bashar al-Assad government said to be reaching its final days..............
All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure. He is proving to be quite a traveller to the Middle East – and has already made firm friends of another pillar of the region, that President-Field Marshal who scored more than 96 per cent at the polls and who currently rules Egypt. But the Egyptian army, fighting its little war in Sinai, no longer has strategic experience of a major war. Nor, despite their dalliance in the air over Yemen, Libya, Syria and other targets of opportunity, do the present military authorities in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan have much understanding of how a real war is fought. Libya’s own army is in bits. Iraq’s military has scarcely earned any medals against its Islamist enemies.
But there is one factor which should not be overlooked.
If it wins – and if it holds together and if its manpower, which is admittedly at a low level, can be maintained – then the Syrian military is going to come out of this current war as the most ruthless, battle-trained and battle-hardened Arab army in the entire region. Woe betide any of its neighbours who forget this.
All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure in the Middle East
While the world still rages on at Russia’s presumption in the Middle East – to intervene in Syria instead of letting the Americans decide which dictators should survive or die – we’ve all been forgetting the one institution in that Arab land which continues to function and protect the state which Moscow has decided to preserve: the Syrian army. While Russia has been propagandising its missiles, the Syrian military, undermanned and undergunned a few months ago, has suddenly moved on to the offensive. Earlier this year, we may remember, this same army was being written off, the Bashar al-Assad government said to be reaching its final days..............
All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure. He is proving to be quite a traveller to the Middle East – and has already made firm friends of another pillar of the region, that President-Field Marshal who scored more than 96 per cent at the polls and who currently rules Egypt. But the Egyptian army, fighting its little war in Sinai, no longer has strategic experience of a major war. Nor, despite their dalliance in the air over Yemen, Libya, Syria and other targets of opportunity, do the present military authorities in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan have much understanding of how a real war is fought. Libya’s own army is in bits. Iraq’s military has scarcely earned any medals against its Islamist enemies.
But there is one factor which should not be overlooked.
If it wins – and if it holds together and if its manpower, which is admittedly at a low level, can be maintained – then the Syrian military is going to come out of this current war as the most ruthless, battle-trained and battle-hardened Arab army in the entire region. Woe betide any of its neighbours who forget this.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Montenegro poised for Nato membership
Montenegro is on Wednesday expected to become the latest member of Nato, in the face of protests by Russia.
Foreign ministers are expected to vote to invite the tiny former Yugoslav state to join the 28-member defence alliance at a meeting in Brussels. The move is intended to send a signal to Moscow that it cannot dictate terms to the Balkans.
Last year, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said allowing Montenegro to join would be a “provocation” and “irresponsible”, a move that made its Nato membership almost inevitable.
Russia claims it is being “encircled” by Nato. Officials said extending the invitation to the country of half a million people proved that the defence alliance’s “open door” policy of extending membership to those that wish it still stands.
Russian President Vladimir Putin bitterly complains of what he sees as NATO encroachment, especially after the pro-Western Kiev government said it was looking to join the alliance in the future.
NATO offered Ukraine membership in 2008, when Russia went to war against another former Soviet state, Georgia, but Kiev opted for what it said was a "non-bloc" policy instead. President Petro Poroshenko however reversed that position last year over Moscow's support for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.
Georgia is also desperate to join the alliance.
Balkan states Croatia and Albania were the most recent countries to join, in 2009.
Sergei Zheleznyak, a prominent member of Russia's parliament, said Russia might have to punish Montenegro if it joined NATO without holding a referendum. Public opinion is split in the country.
"We would have to change our policy in regard to this friendly country," he said. "If NATO military infrastructure were placed there, we would have to respond by limiting our contacts in economic and other spheres."
Montenegro is on Wednesday expected to become the latest member of Nato, in the face of protests by Russia.
Foreign ministers are expected to vote to invite the tiny former Yugoslav state to join the 28-member defence alliance at a meeting in Brussels. The move is intended to send a signal to Moscow that it cannot dictate terms to the Balkans.
Last year, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said allowing Montenegro to join would be a “provocation” and “irresponsible”, a move that made its Nato membership almost inevitable.
Russia claims it is being “encircled” by Nato. Officials said extending the invitation to the country of half a million people proved that the defence alliance’s “open door” policy of extending membership to those that wish it still stands.
Russian President Vladimir Putin bitterly complains of what he sees as NATO encroachment, especially after the pro-Western Kiev government said it was looking to join the alliance in the future.
NATO offered Ukraine membership in 2008, when Russia went to war against another former Soviet state, Georgia, but Kiev opted for what it said was a "non-bloc" policy instead. President Petro Poroshenko however reversed that position last year over Moscow's support for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.
Georgia is also desperate to join the alliance.
Balkan states Croatia and Albania were the most recent countries to join, in 2009.
Sergei Zheleznyak, a prominent member of Russia's parliament, said Russia might have to punish Montenegro if it joined NATO without holding a referendum. Public opinion is split in the country.
"We would have to change our policy in regard to this friendly country," he said. "If NATO military infrastructure were placed there, we would have to respond by limiting our contacts in economic and other spheres."
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: New Braunfels, TX
Age: 70
Posts: 1,954
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans.
Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans.
I served through the Cold War period, I remember it.
We were bled dry by the Americans during WW II
Yeah, the Germans had nothing to do with it.
The Italians had nothing to do with it
The Japanese had nothing to do with it
Bizarre PoV you have there. Were you drinking buddies with JFC Fuller, by any chance?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
POLITICO: PUTIN’S DIGITAL OFFENSIVE: NATO’s strategic communications center says Russia is engaged in a “"Preparatory Information War"” in Latvia with wider repercussions.
Daniel Boffey in the Guardian reports also that Russia has set up warehouses in which an army of bloggers sit day and night, charged with flooding the internet with comments favorable to Russian interests: Europe?s new cold war turns digital as Vladimir Putin expands media offensive
Daniel Boffey in the Guardian reports also that Russia has set up warehouses in which an army of bloggers sit day and night, charged with flooding the internet with comments favorable to Russian interests: Europe?s new cold war turns digital as Vladimir Putin expands media offensive
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Moscow region
Age: 65
Posts: 567
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Had some fun reading this thread. People who never been to Russia (Ukraine, Baltic states, Georgia, etc.) and do not speak Russian have written so many paragraphs explaining how things work in "that empire of evil". Amusing.
On the other hand, it really makes me feel sad to see how educated, knowledgeable and even wise people sometimes represent themselves like victims of a primitive anti-russian propaganda. Helas, the informational war is being escalated on both sides, but let's be careful in supporting politicians who are playing their own games and have their own agendas. Sometimes, I understand small nations suffering from economical depression and crying about "Russian nukes ready to hit them", etc. By this they are trying to get more support from rich NATO countries and maybe get more funds for the "risk they are facing". However, I think that people with some real experience and wisdom should understand that those games have certain limits, try to calm the situation down and not add extra gas to the fire started by short-sighted and sh-t-headed politicians.
IMHO, it is more productive to consider and work out the cases where we can (and should) cooperate. Look, US and Russia finally managed to shut down (to a large extent) the fire from all those mobs and "factions" in Syria. The truce is quite fragile, but the cooperation proved to be possible.
Another (personal) example brings my memory back to the days some 20+ years ago when we started joined manned space flights with NASA. Nearly half of US astronauts we were dealing with were military as well, and it was quite easy to find common language and understanding with them, great guys. The same for our friends in France and other European countries. Politicians were sometimes talking their usual rubbish and hysterical slogans, but joined work went on, goes on and will hopefully continue through the end of lifecycle of the International Space Station and then through joined Mars exploration and further on.
We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe".
On the other hand, it really makes me feel sad to see how educated, knowledgeable and even wise people sometimes represent themselves like victims of a primitive anti-russian propaganda. Helas, the informational war is being escalated on both sides, but let's be careful in supporting politicians who are playing their own games and have their own agendas. Sometimes, I understand small nations suffering from economical depression and crying about "Russian nukes ready to hit them", etc. By this they are trying to get more support from rich NATO countries and maybe get more funds for the "risk they are facing". However, I think that people with some real experience and wisdom should understand that those games have certain limits, try to calm the situation down and not add extra gas to the fire started by short-sighted and sh-t-headed politicians.
IMHO, it is more productive to consider and work out the cases where we can (and should) cooperate. Look, US and Russia finally managed to shut down (to a large extent) the fire from all those mobs and "factions" in Syria. The truce is quite fragile, but the cooperation proved to be possible.
Another (personal) example brings my memory back to the days some 20+ years ago when we started joined manned space flights with NASA. Nearly half of US astronauts we were dealing with were military as well, and it was quite easy to find common language and understanding with them, great guys. The same for our friends in France and other European countries. Politicians were sometimes talking their usual rubbish and hysterical slogans, but joined work went on, goes on and will hopefully continue through the end of lifecycle of the International Space Station and then through joined Mars exploration and further on.
We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe".
Another (personal) example brings my memory back to the days some 20+ years ago when we started joined manned space flights with NASA. Nearly half of US astronauts we were dealing with were military as well, and it was quite easy to find common language and understanding with them, great guys. The same for our friends in France and other European countries. Politicians were sometimes talking their usual rubbish and hysterical slogans, but joined work went on, goes on and will hopefully continue through the end of lifecycle of the International Space Station and then through joined Mars exploration and further on.
We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe".
We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe".
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,035
Received 2,903 Likes
on
1,244 Posts
From his drafty warehouse ?
Only joshing.
Only joshing.