Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Manning Undershoot Imminent?

Wikiposts
Search
Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Manning Undershoot Imminent?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 14th Dec 2014, 17:10
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The Roman Empire
Posts: 2,449
Received 72 Likes on 33 Posts
First of all I'm not a Tory....

Having got that out of the way, Cable is a politician, and so if his lips are moving....

Also an election is not far away, and the Liberals are painting themselves as having been the "..voice of restraint..." against the evil Tories as a way of separating themselves and preserving their share of the vote.

Maybe there're right. Personally I would look for more impartial information, somewhere like here:

UK Government spending ? real and as % of GDP | Economics Help

The Tories want to reduce government spending as a percentage of GDP, in order to reduce debt. But the sort of figures they are talking about is the % of GDP that the government spent 1999/2000/2001 - were we really that badly off then as a society?

All the parties admit that spending will have to be reduced, it's just how much and how quickly that they argue about.

Personally I wouldn't consider the defence budget to be any safer in the hands of Labour or the Liberals, and especially a Labour/SNP coalition!

Still, vote for who you want, but try to find some solid facts beyond politicians soundbites!!
Biggus is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2014, 17:18
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Canada
Posts: 2,895
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
And if everybody votes UKIP, you'll get UKIP, not Labour.
Fox3WheresMyBanana is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2014, 17:48
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Baston
Posts: 3,267
Received 656 Likes on 236 Posts
I fear that my wife is not a farage bride.
langleybaston is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2014, 18:26
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: East Anglia
Posts: 349
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I get it totally - we have a deficit that we have to reduce and the majority of the current British population want to ring fence health and education, which will squeeze other departments.

But if politically and financially we have to bite the bullet with a reduction in the Defence budget then politically we should also accept that we cannot afford the Defence roles and tasks that we currently have and the short notice tasks we suddenly sign up for. If we as a nation really are going to make further cuts and ignore what is going on the world then we really will have one option but to become an armed gendarmerie for wars of national survival and concentrate on protecting our borders and internal security only.

The politicians cannot have it all and the British public cannot suddenly look to its Armed Forces in a time of need after years of cuts and belief that there is no requirement to have international interests requiring well trained/motivated, rapidly deployable and high readiness forces. Both politicians and British public alike should not be surprised that on the current trajectory it is likely that there will be a future military failure. When Helmand went awry after some early strategic mistakes, eventually the MoD managed to realise and recover the situation. When/if it goes wrong in the future I do not see any depth, resilience, resourced sustainment to enable a similar recovery/re-inforcement/reserve.

A decision needs to be made otherwise I fear another Neville Chamberlain moment in history, but in a multi-cultural, multi-faith, and multi-faceted UK it will be interesting if we could pull off the Blitz mentality and personal sacrifice for any potential war effort for national survival while a proper (Churchillian) leader stepped up to the plate - heaven forbid if it was required.

Last edited by MaroonMan4; 14th Dec 2014 at 18:51.
MaroonMan4 is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2014, 18:40
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Darling - where are we?
Posts: 2,580
Received 7 Likes on 5 Posts
And just what is the Conservative's policy on defence? I only ask because, and this might just be me being a bit thick or short sighted (both a very realistic possibility these days!), for a party that thinks the defence should be the first priority of government ....

Actually scrap that past point. I think I've answered my own question. On re-reading his speech to the party faithful at the last conference, I thought Mr Fallon had said Defending the country was the first duty of government. He didn't; he said "the first duty of government is to keep Britain safe". And that is most definitely not the same as defending the country being the first duty of government. Defending your home from intruders would be claymores on the front lawn, HMGs mounted on a watchtower overlooking the back fence, big dogs with sharp teeth and a car that explodes if someone tries to pinch it. Keeping your home safe would be making sure the roof doesn't leek, that your little ones don't put the cat in the washer for fun or stick their fingers in the plug sockets, that aunt Mavis doesn't trip over the loose carpet on the landing. Defence and safety, two very different things.

So now I've cleared that up in my own mind, just what EXACTLY is the Conservative policy on defence? I looked and I've looked and I can't find it anywhere (this is probably me being thick). All I can see when I go to the Conservative's website is cutting the deficit. That might be part of keeping us safe, after all we are fortunate enough to have "Prime Minister who puts defence at the top of his priorities. And a Chancellor who understands that strong defence depends on a strong economy." Lucky us.

And then I looked at Conservativehome.com, allegedly the home of Conservatism. The closest I could find to a statement on the Conservative Defence policy was an article slamming the Labour Shadow Defence Secretaries since 2010.

Not to worry I thought, maybe it's still in draft format, what with an election looming - they're titivating it. So I had a look at their Euro election manifesto as a pointer to what might be in their next big manifesto. Errrrrrrrrr. Found it. Page 24 of 28, tucked away just behind farming, fishing and agricultural policy. The key points in the first paragraph on security - note not defence - is on mass migration, poverty and spreading democracy.

I was starting to worry by now. An election round the corner but no hint of any sort of policy put out there to say how they planned to keep us safe and secure for the next 5 years. So I read Mr Fallon's conference speech again in case I'd missed something. Apparently not.

It seems Mr Fallon is keen to take credit for the delivery of a more agile armed forces with lots of hard working reserves (apparently citizens twice over) who will get a new decoration for 10 years service and for fixing the defence budget which means they can spend £164 billion over the next 10 years. Although spent it on what he doesn't say - people, pay, paper clips, hugely wasteful contracts that don't deliver what we need on time? Your guess is as good as mine. But fear not, all is not lost. Mr Fallon is keen to trumpet 7 new hunter killers for the RN, more new fighters, surveillance aircraft and new transport planes for the RAF and 600 new Scout vehicles for the Army.

Erm, sorry to be a pain Mr Fallon, but weren't they nearly all pretty much squared away before your time? In fact how many of those programmes were squared away whilst 'call me Dave' was still campaigning for his seat in Parliament back in 2001? Given all this Mr Fallon, just what is the plan for Defence? I mean you do have one don't you???? And I mean other than pissing everybody off so they leave and then snatching people from the jaws of despair by employing them on the Defence equivalent of a zero hours contract i.e. You want something for nothing.

After all this, I came to the conclusion that Defence is royally screwed and that to get anywhere in the Armed Forces of tomorrow I realistically need to be a Reservist working in J8 Finance. Only then will I have a voice and a role that might actually mean something.

The storm clouds are gathering, and given the current state of the world I have a horrible feeling that Winston's gathering storm could well look like a light spring breeze by comparison if we're not careful.
Melchett01 is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2014, 18:58
  #26 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 4,334
Received 80 Likes on 32 Posts
Crikey, all this vitriol on FTRS!

Take a look at the numbers in the data at the link in my first post. If you look at "Table 4 - Royal Air Force - Trained and untrained strength of all Regular, Full time and Reserve, Service personnel" you will see that FTRS make up just 790 personnel - 210 RAuxAF and 580 Regular Reserve. 790 personnel are around just 2% of the current strength of the RAF and only 260 of these are the non-deployable Home Commitment (HC) which is less than 1%. Like the B Word I was on 'stag' for the fire strikes with a Chf Tech and the local RAFRLO - all 3 of us FTRS working over the Christmas holidays alongside a whole bunch of guys in Air Cmd and SJC(UK) that were also FTRS. I also led a bunch of guys doing sandbagging in Windsor during the floods. So tell me, how is this really going to "tighten the circle of pain" for you?!! You would have been more than welcome to take my Christmas/New Year 'stag' and then I, and the rest of my "mongrels", could loaf about at home with our families!

May I suggest that if you can't take deployments anymore then fill one of the FTRS(HC) posts that are so very hard to fill, with most being advertised twice over a 8 month period until someone suitable comes along? We are still a voluntary organisation, the last time I looked...

LJ
Lima Juliet is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2014, 15:41
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: GMT
Age: 53
Posts: 2,068
Received 182 Likes on 68 Posts
Melchett,

I fear the conservative defence policy is to provide whatever capability it is possible to deliver, given the starting number provided by HM Treasury divided by competing single service arguments and multiplied by the square root of the media campaigning on the issue.

I hope that answers your question.
minigundiplomat is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2014, 19:23
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: England
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
well said LJ

From a FTRS (HC) person, who has done numerous dets, courses, etc as a reservist and displays considerable more commitment to my job than a large number of the regulars who I work alongside.........
snippy is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2014, 19:33
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Probably down to said colleagues having their pensions raped whilst reservists typically will have a 75 windfall...
VinRouge is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2014, 19:38
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: England
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
VR...I'm in a better position to comment on them than you are...and I have never met a bigger bunch of lazy bar stewards in 36 years of service...and I've met a few..
snippy is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 09:49
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: East Anglia
Posts: 349
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Please let's not let this thread degenerate into a Reserve/FTRS versus full timer slagging contest.

As I have said the elephant in the room for the Treasury and MoD when they mutually high five each other on achieving the 'numbers' is the deficit in military experience, corporate knowledge, often gained after many years loyal (operational) service and some very expensive courses.

This includes all ranks from the starred, down to a Cpl I believe, even lower in some trades where niche skill sets are required.

Yes, FTRS and Reserves are mitigating this experience deficit short term with what appears a cheaper and more flexible option to deliver the same effect (in some cases). However, the clock is ticking for those experienced ones left as they count down their pension or wait for kids to finish their schooling.

But with pensions becoming significantly less of a pull factor, continued erosion of terms and conditions, all combined with extra work load as the loss of physical numbers has not been balanced with a reduction in workload (affecting quality and family life), then we will be left hoping that in time of need that the Reserves and FTRS will deploy because there will be very few genuine, experienced, loyal personnel left.

Where as I admit I am short finals for my pension, so it would be mad for me to leave, and I still have pride in what I do (more so now on a local scale, rather than the old days of when I was proud of everything my uniform stood for).

But I have to agree with snippy and my word there are SOME seriously experienced guys that have just lost the whole ethos, loyalty, pride and their fighting spirit-becoming grey men that do very little but just contribute to the manning stats (SQEP and other qualifications). They might have the qualification, but they actually do the bare minimum and view it as 9-5 as far possible, or try and negotiate a shift pattern that ensures a 40 hour week (and in some cases a lot less). Adding absolutely no value whatsoever in mentoring, leadership or really caring about the organisation/team they work for.

This bunch will eventually go on retirement, but as I have alluded to the next generation of potential experience (the young guys, one or 2 tours in) are already planning their exit strategies as there are absolutely no pull factors to keep them in, with many more push factors, both now and about to occur in the next 5 years.

The Reserves/FTRS will provide the first field dressing for this haemorrhaging wound, but it will not provide the cure, and I am not too sure if it will even bridge the golden hour until it is recognised that a long term (strategic!) fix is required.

I suppose we could always go down the US model and if an individual was warned off for a Det/Op they couldn't PVR/VO, and then 3 weeks before the end of their tour warn them off for another one in 18 months time to handcuff them for as long as the manners needed.

Or recognise that we are losing people after tours, so let's just extend tour lengths and really squeeze the juice out of them and their families before they go.

The manning levers available are endless.

Last edited by MaroonMan4; 16th Dec 2014 at 10:08.
MaroonMan4 is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 14:52
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Canada
Posts: 2,895
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
Defeated militarily again.
Fox3WheresMyBanana is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 16:19
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: London
Age: 50
Posts: 87
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Geardown: I obviously should have been an accountant but the stats seem to show circa 270 folks leaving every month of which half are PVRs. Snag is only 150 per month are joining. Noting a circa 3 month lag in the stats.

Easy to fix with more intake potentially. Retaining SQEP much harder. Also I should imagine ups and downs in recruiting will cause troughs and peaks (mostly troughs) of SQEP in years to come.
Selatar is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 16:52
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: England
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Maroonman4..pretty much a nail/head comment
snippy is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 17:55
  #35 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 4,334
Received 80 Likes on 32 Posts
Team of civvies?

Yup, apparently so...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/d...it-starts-work

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...-of-defence--2

Working well, isn't it? Good job that some of these consultants aren't being paid between £1500-£3000 per day, then...allegedly!

LJ
Lima Juliet is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 18:05
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 79
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Levene ref 11a.
The Department should reduce the size of the senior cadre of Defence
and the management levels below it. To enable this, the Department
should review all non-front line military posts from OF5 (Captain / Colonel
/ Group Captain) and civilian posts from Band B (Grade 7), to determine
the need for the post, whether it needs to be civilian or military, and
optimum management structures.

This has clearly not been implemented despite stating The Liability Review complete in Apr 13.
jayc530 is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 18:30
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Southern Europe
Posts: 5,335
Received 17 Likes on 6 Posts
please be quiet if you have no solution fella.
...or unless you simply want to express an opinion, ask a question, comment on another post or anything people do here. No one here is under any requirement to fix the MoD's manning nightmare, but plenty are posting excellent, informative and informed thoughts. Thank you for that.
Courtney Mil is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 18:38
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: London
Age: 50
Posts: 87
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I think egdg is shouting at me with those six exclamation marks.

Of course retention is critical and it is here where much of the issue lies, especially loosing too many of the wrong people. But people do leave, 10% a year give or take, it's always been thus. So, ensuring you recruit the right quality and quantity of people must happen. The scores for entry have been dropped in the past and that's not good, perhaps that's when egdg joined?
Selatar is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 19:06
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: the dark place
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
long time lurker, first time poster. for those of you that are no longer serving, are significantly above the "coal face" or are otherwise on the periphery I would like to contribute my two penneth... things have never been so bad morale-wise. and not in the "another weekend sdo" "but I've never really wanted to do the c course" or "shouldn't we get paid more" way they have ever been. the rot has truly set in spurred on in my opinion by widespread contractorisation (and its work to rule offshoots), worsening and lengthening deployments, non-optional fundamental changes to return of service and chronic fear of budgets, risk aversion and political correctness in senior officers. make absolutely no bones about it - with very, very, few exceptions everyone in the jo cadre has considered, if not planned, an exit strategy. in my opinion it is about one full tour away from collapse. the litmus test for me is the number of sqn uncles/pa spiners/3rd & 4th tourists packing up shop with very little notice in the very recent past having been tipped over the edge by things that are, in isolation, minor but are the proverbial straw to the camel's back. when young(ish) fg offs and flt lts see these guys check out via the junta office they start wondering whether they want to be in that position in 20 years time or whether one of the, now numerous, alternatives are a better answer.
internationalplayboy is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2014, 19:39
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: East Anglia
Posts: 349
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Thanks LJ,

Really informative, thank you for the links. As a JHC wokka mate, under Army TLB I found the whole JFC/enabling chapter very interesting, but with regards to this thread then Para 13 - People was worth a read on what this body of wisdom recommended a few years ago. Notably the paragraph copied below on specialist functional areas:

d. Defence should place greater emphasis on recruiting or developing people with the right skills and expertise, particularly in professional or more specialist functional areas.

It is not an ego trip when I genuinely believe that those involved with aviation are professional and specialised, both operators and those required to fly a desk.

At the risk of asking a rhetorical question, the obvious question is why this pretty simple recommendation has not only been ignored in the air environment, but the original issue identified appears to be exasperated?

Selatar,

You miss the point my friend - of course if a VO rate of say less than 15-10% then decision makers will not be that concerned. Even if in professional and specialist areas the VO rate is currently below the manning trigger levels, there appears absolutely no recognition that in the next 5 years the numbers may look absolutely fine, but the experience levels and true definition of SQEP will not. Why should those currently involved in manning worry about the next 5 years as they will be onto their next posting, and as long as they keep day to day business ticking along then not only are they very busy themselves, but also understandable if they don't put their head above the parapets or attempt to quantify exactly what the issue is/will be and more importantly how to resolve long term to avoid future 'boom and bust' manning levels and requirements.

As long as everyone is aware of this risk, then I am sure SQEP matrices and posting requirements, qualifications and experience can all be compromised to ensure a bum in cockpit or at a desk. Not tieing staff posts to aviators is a good example of where the 'E' of SQEP as non aviators is missing 'mitigated' by their Service 'air awareness' or having completed induction training or a specialised course prior to assuming the role.

But the MAA cannot then bleat about its concerns of lack of SQEP or we do experience military failure, procurement and/or airworthiness errors.

No such thing as a free lunch, you don't get something for nothing, you reap what you sow and all the other cliches out there!

Last edited by MaroonMan4; 16th Dec 2014 at 20:11.
MaroonMan4 is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.