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Putin threatens NATO & EU ?

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Putin threatens NATO & EU ?

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Old 26th Oct 2014, 20:22
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Wherur,

Imagine if we had funded Herrick by doing.. this (and we think we have pension gap problems). His mates are watching their money going down the drain so is Putin mad enough to try something? I imagine it depends how much support he has from the generals - the people seem to forgive him anything.
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Old 26th Oct 2014, 20:55
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something we've 'moved on' from in the West.
You have but those in the West who have a very large vested interest in Military industrial Complex need an enemy


Anyway, who'd want to invest in Russia?
Germany is heading into recession because of sanctions...............that impacst everyone across EU.
EU agricultural production in the order of billions is now banned and EU will be requried to compensate them.
EU sells 12 times what US was selling on Agric products so US happy to do over EU farmers.
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Old 26th Oct 2014, 21:03
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Thanks for that link - hadn't seen that. A very interesting report on the shortfalls in the Russian economy was published a week or two showing the massive shortfall in the Federal Budget due the historically low value of oil ($84) versus a planned figure of $117. Venezuela is in a similar situation!
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Old 26th Oct 2014, 23:08
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Yeah, there was a recent report (ny times I think) which gave a graph of barrel break even prices for the opec countries. Its almost like there was a plan...
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Old 26th Oct 2014, 23:39
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Thanks for that link - hadn't seen that. A very interesting report on the shortfalls in the Russian economy was published a week or two showing the massive shortfall in the Federal Budget due the historically low value of oil ($84) versus a planned figure of $117. Venezuela is in a similar situation!
Guys Russia has $110 billion in US Treasuries and every month Trade surpluses of $12 plus billion. Selling off 5% and its more than pension raid.


Hell Uk pension raid is estimated to have cost $160 billion (£100 billion) in UK since 1997
Brown's pension raid 'cost savers £100bn' | This is Money

Russia also got China to stump up billions for Oil & Gas deliveries for the future.
If Oil goes below $80 then lots of fracking becomes uneconomic, not what they already drilled but being able to drill new wells.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 01:24
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So RR has got a newly-converted "fellow traveller" in racedo?
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 07:21
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Streetwise Professor: The Madness of Tsar Vlad

Moscow Times: Is Russia Heading for a New 1998 Crisis?

WSJ: How Russia’s Debt and Currency Markets Could Spiral into Crisis
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 07:44
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Racedo,

Swapping pub ammo from the past is all well and good but seeing as we're at it, I suppose we could offset that by including the $45 billions which Russia knows it'll now never receive from Cuba or N Korea? In effect, it's buying business. The current certainties and likely possibilities are that Russia is dipping into its contingency fund deep and fast and it's resorting to quite desperate measures to retain money and influence. No one respects a needy partner.

If the bonds become pretty much worthless, the issue isn't about the past, it's about the future. Energy prices are low and western stocks are high (Putin will be praying for an icy winter), the currency is through the floor (and Russian markets likewise - they fund expansionism in the west) and the people are not ready or expecting periods of hardship. My question was, could/would Putin do something to take their attention elsewhere?
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 08:36
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His economy may or may not be in the toilet, but how do you reckon Vlads combat regiments are traveling? Suffering from budget cuts? Slashing manpower/aircraft/tanks/ships etc? Battle weary after 12 years of constant deployment?

Lots of historical parallels to the current situation He knows how to time things, thats for sure.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 09:30
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So RR has got a newly-converted "fellow traveller" in racedo?
Nope but after watching various residents of Penn Avenue come up with idiot ideas I think stepping back and looking long term is a better bet than doing what the Saudi's want. Remember it was their citizens who were in the planes on 9/11 and the country got a pass.

Nothing I have seen Russia do in last 10 years is likely to see bombs on streets of London but after Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria I start to wonder what is happening.

US Foreign policy seems knee jerk and always needing a bogey man.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 09:36
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Swapping pub ammo from the past is all well and good but seeing as we're at it, I suppose we could offset that by including the $45 billions which Russia knows it'll now never receive from Cuba or N Korea? In effect, it's buying business. The current certainties and likely possibilities are that Russia is dipping into its contingency fund deep and fast and it's resorting to quite desperate measures to retain money and influence. No one respects a needy partner.

If the bonds become pretty much worthless, the issue isn't about the past, it's about the future. Energy prices are low and western stocks are high (Putin will be praying for an icy winter), the currency is through the floor (and Russian markets likewise - they fund expansionism in the west) and the people are not ready or expecting periods of hardship. My question was, could/would Putin do something to take their attention elsewhere?
Point is that they have the money, the oil and gold and now not using dollar to trade with China and others.

EU Agri trade is now going to South America, Turkey and Israel, it won't come back quickly or cheaply.

Between them and China they hold 25% of Foreign US Treasuries holdings, I don't Russia is acting on its own.

As for the trade with NK/Cuba............. er what is US military aid to Israel / Egypt and other countries, how does US taxpayer benefit ?

As for taking peoples attention elsewhere as he has ratings double Obama I don't see him worried, remember Russia knows hardship and it has been invaded by the west twice in 100 years, the people know their history.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 09:38
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Russia might be at a point like in the late 1980s when the soviet union realized they had lost the race against the west.

Today they might have realized they didn't get their economy going even with all those years of hard currency raw materials export earnings. Now the oil and gas income goes down again and they realize China has taken over forever.

They will never be as "strong" as today. Sort of a dangerous moment of truth.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 09:45
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His economy may or may not be in the toilet, but how do you reckon Vlads combat regiments are traveling? Suffering from budget cuts? Slashing manpower/aircraft/tanks/ships etc? Battle weary after 12 years of constant deployment?

Lots of historical parallels to the current situation He knows how to time things, thats for sure.
I don't think he timed anything until yushenko was overthrown in a Coup, following that things happened as clear who was behind it and then set about protecting Russian interests in his backyard.

Given the neo nazi element in West Ukraine it was not a shock and once that genie was let out it was not going back in........... who in their right mind would allow self proclaimed neo nazis in Govt, hell the Poles were angry as the guys these hero worship killed couple of hundred thousand poles.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 09:49
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Today they might have realized they didn't get their economy going even with all those years of hard currency raw materials export earnings. Now the oil and gas income goes down again and they realize China has taken over forever.
Equally applies to the US as Russia not carrying out military manouvres and stating China is the enemy.

I think west blew a great chance to get Russia on board when it needed support, too many cold war types thought lets kill the bear rather than lets make it a partner.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 09:57
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Interesting comments on this subject, I suggest you all read Cauldron by Larry Bond, available from the river company. Written in the late 90s as a view of the future in Europe when the EU has disintergrated. Far too close to the present happenings.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 10:01
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Racedo, you've really taken off on this bash US theme haven't you. Your man Vlad invaded Ukraine, not the bamster, he'll he has a Nobel peace Prize from you euros. That the EU was likely just to continue wringing its hands and declaring there was nothing to be done, the Ukraine would belong to Russia. Far be it from me to defend Obama, but anything was better than the path Europe was headed down under its own lack of leadership.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 13:47
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Original quote by racedo: I think west blew a great chance to get Russia on board when it needed support, too many cold war types thought lets kill the bear rather than lets make it a partner.
There used to be a statue in front of the KBG headquarters in Moscow, Feliks Dzerzhinsky, the founder of the Soviet secret police, I think. He looked down on the Kremlin as a reminder to those who occupied the Kremlin. It was no accident he faced that direction. Today an ex-KBG agent occupies the Kremlin and the statue is gone… Never, ever trust an ex-KBG agent, they are the best of the best when it comes to stealing, lying, cheating, etc.
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 15:00
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actually he didn't - he looked across the square at the old Lubyanka Insurance Building - ie to the NE

He had his back to a large office block and so couldn't "look down" on the Kremlin - which lies some 800 m++ south WEST of the old site of the statue

GUM is in the way as well............
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 16:38
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Racedo, you've really taken off on this bash US theme haven't you. Your man Vlad invaded Ukraine, not the bamster, he'll he has a Nobel peace Prize from you euros. That the EU was likely just to continue wringing its hands and declaring there was nothing to be done, the Ukraine would belong to Russia. Far be it from me to defend Obama, but anything was better than the path Europe was headed down under its own lack of leadership.
Bash US Foreign Policy when again i see it likely to cause issues on London streets.

Libya and Syria are really in nobodys back yard yet because Saudis / Qatar wanted something they got it, these the same guys who recognised Taliban and supported them.

Yet the guys who didn't support Taliban and Al Qaeda are the ones targeted...... do you not ever wonder about that ?
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Old 27th Oct 2014, 17:50
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This "blame the US for everything" gang must be a funny crowd.
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