MH370 and military primary radar.
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I'm not aware of the current state of things in Europe or elsewhere, but for the last couple of decades I have been seeing reports and stories (many confirmed by local control sectors and even by the FAA itself) that there are few actual high-level radars (the ones that bounce a radio wave off the aircraft skin rather than querying its transponder) left in the US ATC network!
The only place where actual radars are left in numbers in civilian service is in the lower altitudes that are relatively near airports with sufficient traffic to justify the expense.
Everything else in the ATCT network relies completely on transponders to both locate and identify aircraft.
The only place where actual radars are left in numbers in civilian service is in the lower altitudes that are relatively near airports with sufficient traffic to justify the expense.
Everything else in the ATCT network relies completely on transponders to both locate and identify aircraft.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
ORAC, Am I correct in thinking that you believe it is possible that it was not tracked, - or rather, it is possible that it would not have raised any military interest?
As a friendly it would not of been a high priority, they would have been watching other unknown tracks and trying to identify them.
The question then arises as to whether the turn back would have raised an alert. Unless it was a sophisticated system with flight plan tracks being continuously monitored for adherence (which I am almost certain was not the case,) then the system would not have generated an alert unless it squawked radio fail, hijack or radio fail. Would the operator have seen it as suspicious? Bored airman keeping tracks on blips, unlikely.
The remaining possibility would have been if ATC called to say they'd lost contact, but they'd sent him over to HCM control and thought he'd gone. HCM didn't query his non-arrival on frequency (lack of comms between ATC centres?) so that didn't happen either.
When the track went overland/primary went below cover the track would have automatically timed out and been dropped and it would not have been seen as of interest.
When a non-squawking outbound track appeared off the west coast it would either have been made friendly or unknown based on track behaviour (coming from friendly territory) and again dropped when it left radar cover.
In short, the whole turn and transit until it left cover is highly unlikely to have raised an eyebrow until questions were asked and the tapes pulled. At which point embarassed execs would have started waffling rather than admitting that's how the system works.
Last edited by ORAC; 17th Mar 2014 at 07:50.
Thread Starter
ORAC,
Thanks for such a detailed explanation.
Any thoughts on why, after reviewing the tapes, it would take more than a week to find? Is this a difficult exercise?
Thanks for such a detailed explanation.
Any thoughts on why, after reviewing the tapes, it would take more than a week to find? Is this a difficult exercise?
Going back to the OP's question, the practices current in civilian ATC with regard to transponders are a red herring. What is being asked is if it is conceivable that the military radar operated by the RMAF missed the contact.
Obviously it is conceivable - they were asleep, they were u/s, they were shut down for a day's holiday - who knows? The fact remains that a military radar does not rely on IFF - an incoming aggressor is not going to conveniently squawk for you. An effective military radar should not only have picked this aircraft up as a possible threat, but should certainly have launched aircraft to intercept and identify. Otherwise what's the point of having a massively expensive air defence system?
Obviously it is conceivable - they were asleep, they were u/s, they were shut down for a day's holiday - who knows? The fact remains that a military radar does not rely on IFF - an incoming aggressor is not going to conveniently squawk for you. An effective military radar should not only have picked this aircraft up as a possible threat, but should certainly have launched aircraft to intercept and identify. Otherwise what's the point of having a massively expensive air defence system?
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Tankertrashnav ... not disputing anything you said, but is it not conceivable that different "Alert States" might be employed?
I accept that the region 'enjoys' a degree of tension, but in the absence of any 'indicators' is it not possible that the Malaysian AD world was in a relaxed state? Or do they have to monitor incursions constantly the way we did/do in respect of Soviet/Russian VLR aircraft?
Just surmising, nothing more.
I accept that the region 'enjoys' a degree of tension, but in the absence of any 'indicators' is it not possible that the Malaysian AD world was in a relaxed state? Or do they have to monitor incursions constantly the way we did/do in respect of Soviet/Russian VLR aircraft?
Just surmising, nothing more.
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MPN 11
ORAC has summed it up nicely and I think he also talked about areas in which tracks are not initiated (primarily for system/de-cluttering reasons) in an earlier post. To answer your specific question I do not believe that post 9/11, any credible ADGE system (even in its most basic form) would change the way it does business based on some type of "alert" system. Let me qualify that, they may become more "active" - depending on INT, but I believe that there is a level below which they would not go. I base this rather sweeping statement on my 34 years of ADGE experience - at all levels, from ab-initio to inter-facing with the 'political level'. However, in saying this I do not discount the "human factor" - some poor airman on a 12 or 15 hour shift missing something, and the supervisory chain also failing to pick it up etc etc.
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gr4techie - considering that the one in Rumours and News is taking between 3 and 6 mods pretty much all day to keep in some (not very good) semblance of order, we don't need masses of other threads about it proliferating on PPRuNe. The site policy is to have only one thread on this topic.
Three or four threads have been deleted from other forums, but I have decided to let this one run because we usually have some common sense around in here. So far so good eh?
Rest assured though, that if it degenerates into anything like the R & N thread it will also be culled.
Three or four threads have been deleted from other forums, but I have decided to let this one run because we usually have some common sense around in here. So far so good eh?
Rest assured though, that if it degenerates into anything like the R & N thread it will also be culled.
Am I allowed to ask the experts nicely the following:
given that there appears to be a "last known" position west of malaysia, what is the logic to searching two arcs only. Are they reciprocals plotted on a great circle? Nobody in the media seems to be asking "why there?"
I apologise if I have missed something [that would be easy!]
given that there appears to be a "last known" position west of malaysia, what is the logic to searching two arcs only. Are they reciprocals plotted on a great circle? Nobody in the media seems to be asking "why there?"
I apologise if I have missed something [that would be easy!]
MPN11 - You may well be right about relaxed states of alert and obviously I dont know what systems they have. However I'd have thought that post 9/11, a country which is home to one of the tallest buildings in the world would always be nervous about an incoming unidentified target.
Ive been out of things for a very long time now, but I am sure in recent years I have read of Typhoons being scrambled to intercept unidentified civilian traffic approaching the UK which turned out to be entirely innocent.
Ive been out of things for a very long time now, but I am sure in recent years I have read of Typhoons being scrambled to intercept unidentified civilian traffic approaching the UK which turned out to be entirely innocent.
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@ TTN and CB ... No disagreement with anything you said. As I noted, just an observation. As a Mil Area ATCO, we only ever looked at the tube if we were controlling someone 
Suspicion breeds confidence
A civil radar looks for a squak code and won't do much if it can't find one. A military allocates track number to any target so that it can be tracked and any follow up taken. I have no experience of land based radars but on a ship I could see a complete air picture out to 250 miles. which is why I don't believe just about anything I hear on this subject.
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Wholigan, that's a top call letting it run on here...bags of military interest from all angles and the main thread is just going to be too wackadoodle for must of us mil or ex mil types.
To quote a fictional character, if one eliminates the impossible, the whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
At the moment, there are a great many improbable scenarios (hence the whole mystery thing) there are not that many impossible scenarios. A "straightforward" aircraft accident is possible (the quotes because no accident is ever that straightforward); a terrorism event is possible; a non terrorist criminal act is possible and so is a suicidal type of thing. At the same time all these things look improbable because we are dealing with something we are not used...a modern day Bermuda Triangle. What makes it more explainable is the possibility that a number of rare event have lined up in a statistical outlier. For example, a criminal act that then turned into an accident, or a whole sequence of events, that make the mundane, look extraordinary.
Every poker player knows that sooner or later your four kings will run into four aces. As unlikely as it seems at the time (instantly arousing suspicions of cheating) that fact is that not only is it likely (if you play enough) it is a statistical certainty. In a similar way, with millions and millions of flights, sooner or later something totally freaky in every which way is going to happen.
For my part, I keep an open mind, but I won't surprised if the eventual truth is revealed as some tragic, simple human or mechanical failure (which kind reveals what two explanations I favour).
Thoughts are with the families..it must be hell on earth.
To quote a fictional character, if one eliminates the impossible, the whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
At the moment, there are a great many improbable scenarios (hence the whole mystery thing) there are not that many impossible scenarios. A "straightforward" aircraft accident is possible (the quotes because no accident is ever that straightforward); a terrorism event is possible; a non terrorist criminal act is possible and so is a suicidal type of thing. At the same time all these things look improbable because we are dealing with something we are not used...a modern day Bermuda Triangle. What makes it more explainable is the possibility that a number of rare event have lined up in a statistical outlier. For example, a criminal act that then turned into an accident, or a whole sequence of events, that make the mundane, look extraordinary.
Every poker player knows that sooner or later your four kings will run into four aces. As unlikely as it seems at the time (instantly arousing suspicions of cheating) that fact is that not only is it likely (if you play enough) it is a statistical certainty. In a similar way, with millions and millions of flights, sooner or later something totally freaky in every which way is going to happen.
For my part, I keep an open mind, but I won't surprised if the eventual truth is revealed as some tragic, simple human or mechanical failure (which kind reveals what two explanations I favour).
Thoughts are with the families..it must be hell on earth.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
I'd have thought that post 9/11, a country which is home to one of the tallest buildings in the world would always be nervous about an incoming unidentified target.
To mangle a quote frm the FI war - they watched it all the way out and they watched all the way back in again.
LangleyBastion - I understand that the only useful data from the engine satellite 'pinger' is the angle the satellite received the signal from. Since the satellite is in a fixed position in space relative to the Earth (Geostationary orbit), the last angle received gives a circle - rather a large one - on the Earth. The arc of this circle extends out over central Asia and down to the South Indian Ocean. It would be useful to have all the ping angles and timing,but this hasn't been released yet to my knowledge. With 30 min pings, the aircraft could be in a band +/- 300nm (approx, i.e. 29 mins flying range) of this arc.
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I like that, ORAC 