A Capable Air Force ?
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A Capable Air Force ?
With all the (worrying) Hot Air coming out of North Korea ... what's the collective view on the capability of their Air Force. I appreciate they are said to have all sorts of biological and fissionable nasties ... but let's keep to "conventional" capability.
A few basics ...
Fighter aircraft: 484
Only 23 are known to be operational. 7 MiG-29s, and 16 MiG-23
Strike aircraft: 194
Less than 11 are known to be operational. All are SU-25s.
Trainer aircraft: 357
Less than 30 are known to be operational.
Transport aircraft: ~500
Less than 30 are known to be operational. 2 Il-76MDs, < 4 Mi-8s, < 20 Mi-2s
Other: 82+
Less than 19 are known to be operational. 1 Antonov An-24, and 18 MD-500D
Total: around 1,500
Flyable Total: around 110
Annual flying hours ...
The number of annual flying hours (AFH) per pilot is, like almost every other aspect of the KPAF, very hard to estimate. Most sources on the subject abstain from giving hard numbers, but all of them estimate the average annual flying hours per pilot as being 'low' to 'very low'. The number of annual flying hours is of course very important in estimating the individual skill and experience of the pilots of an air force and the general rule of thumb is 'the more the merrier'. Most estimates present a rather grim picture: AFH per pilot for the KPAF are said to be only 15 or 25[4] hours per pilot each year - comparable to the flying hours of air forces in ex-Soviet countries in the early 1990s. In comparison, most NATO fighter pilots fly at least 150 hours a year. Ground training, both in classrooms, on instructional airframes or in a flight simulator can only substitute for 'the real thing' to a certain degree, and the low number of modern jet trainers in the KPAF arsenal points to a very modest amount of flying time for the formation of new pilots.
There are a number of possible explanations for the low AFH: concern over the aging of equipment, scarcity of spare parts - especially for the older aircraft - difficulties with worn airframes, fear of defection and the scarcity of fuel are all contributing factors. It is very likely however that some 'elite' pilots and regiments receive considerably more flying hours. Especially those equipped with modern aircraft and tasked with homeland defence - like the 57th regiment flying MiG-29s and the 60th regiment flying MiG-23s - are receiving multiple times the average AFH per pilot; however, aging equipment, the scarcity of fuel and the general economic crisis in the DPRK will affect these regiments as well, and keep their AFH low compared to NATO AFH.
The Chosun Ilbo reported on March 29, 2012 that the KPAF had dramatically increased the number of flights to 650 per year. However the number of flights actually recorded and tracked by USA and South Korean Satellites was less then 340. 200 of those flights were to Mainland China.
On January the 23rd of 2013, the CIA released that only 10-20% of the North Korean Military is capable of actually fighting a war, and less then 25% of all static defenses are actually functional.
Based on the above ... actual capability appears a bit sus ... but in the hands of fanatics perhaps a different story ?
Source Wikipedia so data may be of varying quality/authority.
Wikipedia KPAF
Coff.
A few basics ...
Fighter aircraft: 484
Only 23 are known to be operational. 7 MiG-29s, and 16 MiG-23
Strike aircraft: 194
Less than 11 are known to be operational. All are SU-25s.
Trainer aircraft: 357
Less than 30 are known to be operational.
Transport aircraft: ~500
Less than 30 are known to be operational. 2 Il-76MDs, < 4 Mi-8s, < 20 Mi-2s
Other: 82+
Less than 19 are known to be operational. 1 Antonov An-24, and 18 MD-500D
Total: around 1,500
Flyable Total: around 110
Annual flying hours ...
The number of annual flying hours (AFH) per pilot is, like almost every other aspect of the KPAF, very hard to estimate. Most sources on the subject abstain from giving hard numbers, but all of them estimate the average annual flying hours per pilot as being 'low' to 'very low'. The number of annual flying hours is of course very important in estimating the individual skill and experience of the pilots of an air force and the general rule of thumb is 'the more the merrier'. Most estimates present a rather grim picture: AFH per pilot for the KPAF are said to be only 15 or 25[4] hours per pilot each year - comparable to the flying hours of air forces in ex-Soviet countries in the early 1990s. In comparison, most NATO fighter pilots fly at least 150 hours a year. Ground training, both in classrooms, on instructional airframes or in a flight simulator can only substitute for 'the real thing' to a certain degree, and the low number of modern jet trainers in the KPAF arsenal points to a very modest amount of flying time for the formation of new pilots.
There are a number of possible explanations for the low AFH: concern over the aging of equipment, scarcity of spare parts - especially for the older aircraft - difficulties with worn airframes, fear of defection and the scarcity of fuel are all contributing factors. It is very likely however that some 'elite' pilots and regiments receive considerably more flying hours. Especially those equipped with modern aircraft and tasked with homeland defence - like the 57th regiment flying MiG-29s and the 60th regiment flying MiG-23s - are receiving multiple times the average AFH per pilot; however, aging equipment, the scarcity of fuel and the general economic crisis in the DPRK will affect these regiments as well, and keep their AFH low compared to NATO AFH.
The Chosun Ilbo reported on March 29, 2012 that the KPAF had dramatically increased the number of flights to 650 per year. However the number of flights actually recorded and tracked by USA and South Korean Satellites was less then 340. 200 of those flights were to Mainland China.
On January the 23rd of 2013, the CIA released that only 10-20% of the North Korean Military is capable of actually fighting a war, and less then 25% of all static defenses are actually functional.
Based on the above ... actual capability appears a bit sus ... but in the hands of fanatics perhaps a different story ?
Source Wikipedia so data may be of varying quality/authority.
Wikipedia KPAF
Coff.
Last edited by CoffmanStarter; 9th Mar 2013 at 17:57.
Coff
The Air Force might be a bit ropey but they have lots of SAMs. Also, as a package, to quote Zulu, there are "millions of them"...
PERSONNEL
Total Population: 23,479,088 [2008]
Population Available: 12,414,017 [2008]
Fit for Military Service: 10,280,687 [2008]
Reaching Military Age Annually: 392,016 [2008]
Active Military Personnel: 1,170,000 [2008]
Active Military Reserve: 4,700,000 [2008]
Active Paramilitary Units: 189,000 [2008]
ARMY
Total Land-Based Weapons: 16,400
Tanks: 3,500 [2006]
Armored Personnel Carriers: 2,500 [2006]
Towed Artillery: 3,500 [2006]
Self-Propelled Guns: 4,400 [2006]
Multiple Rocket Launch Systems: 2,500 [2006]
Mortars: 7,500 [2006]
Anti-Aircraft Weapons: 11,000 [2006]
NAVY
Total Navy Ships: 708
Merchant Marine Strength: 167 [2008]
Major Ports and Harbors: 12
Aircraft Carriers: 0 [2008]
Destroyers: 0 [2008]
Submarines: 97 [2008]
Frigates: 3 [2006]
Patrol & Coastal Craft: 492 [2006]
Mine Warfare Craft: 23 [2006]
Amphibious Craft: 140 [2006]
AIR FORCE
Total Aircraft: 1,778 [2006]
Helicopters: 612 [2006]
Serviceable Airports: 77 [2007]
The only way to take North Korea is to go for an uber-version of 'shock and awe' and once the main IADS is down, to bring in Daisy Cutters and AC-130s to level the place. Trying to take it with 'boots on the ground' would be horrendous. Somehow, even though they are p!ssed off with the North Koreans at presnt, I don't think China would sit idly by whilst South Korea and its allies commit mass extinction of the North Koreans.
Its far easier to put PAC3 Patriot and other ballistic missile interceptors onto South Korean soil and ring them in guided missile ships. Containment is the only alternative until the North Koreans grow up and stop behaving like petulant children.
iRaven
The Air Force might be a bit ropey but they have lots of SAMs. Also, as a package, to quote Zulu, there are "millions of them"...
PERSONNEL
Total Population: 23,479,088 [2008]
Population Available: 12,414,017 [2008]
Fit for Military Service: 10,280,687 [2008]
Reaching Military Age Annually: 392,016 [2008]
Active Military Personnel: 1,170,000 [2008]
Active Military Reserve: 4,700,000 [2008]
Active Paramilitary Units: 189,000 [2008]
ARMY
Total Land-Based Weapons: 16,400
Tanks: 3,500 [2006]
Armored Personnel Carriers: 2,500 [2006]
Towed Artillery: 3,500 [2006]
Self-Propelled Guns: 4,400 [2006]
Multiple Rocket Launch Systems: 2,500 [2006]
Mortars: 7,500 [2006]
Anti-Aircraft Weapons: 11,000 [2006]
NAVY
Total Navy Ships: 708
Merchant Marine Strength: 167 [2008]
Major Ports and Harbors: 12
Aircraft Carriers: 0 [2008]
Destroyers: 0 [2008]
Submarines: 97 [2008]
Frigates: 3 [2006]
Patrol & Coastal Craft: 492 [2006]
Mine Warfare Craft: 23 [2006]
Amphibious Craft: 140 [2006]
AIR FORCE
Total Aircraft: 1,778 [2006]
Helicopters: 612 [2006]
Serviceable Airports: 77 [2007]
The only way to take North Korea is to go for an uber-version of 'shock and awe' and once the main IADS is down, to bring in Daisy Cutters and AC-130s to level the place. Trying to take it with 'boots on the ground' would be horrendous. Somehow, even though they are p!ssed off with the North Koreans at presnt, I don't think China would sit idly by whilst South Korea and its allies commit mass extinction of the North Koreans.
Its far easier to put PAC3 Patriot and other ballistic missile interceptors onto South Korean soil and ring them in guided missile ships. Containment is the only alternative until the North Koreans grow up and stop behaving like petulant children.
iRaven
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Last edited by Willard Whyte; 9th Mar 2013 at 18:35.
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WW ... The IISS paper is quite informative and confirms the general belief that (God forbid) any hostilities would more likely be direct south using land forces similar to Soviet Cold War era strategy.
I'm certainly not wanting to start a jingoistic debate as this is unnecessary and totally inopropriate to do so. However the state of the Air Force is a reasonable proxy or general technical capabilities ... and that appears to be lacking.
So Mr Un continues to wind up his nation with seeming ease to fever pitch ... let's hope China can keep him in check.
Coff.
I'm certainly not wanting to start a jingoistic debate as this is unnecessary and totally inopropriate to do so. However the state of the Air Force is a reasonable proxy or general technical capabilities ... and that appears to be lacking.
So Mr Un continues to wind up his nation with seeming ease to fever pitch ... let's hope China can keep him in check.
Coff.
Not a MiG-21, Rhino.
Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) Farmer.
A North Korean Captain defected with this J-6 to South Korea in 1983.
Another Farmer defection from 1996.
Photos: Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-19... Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net
Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) Farmer.
A North Korean Captain defected with this J-6 to South Korea in 1983.
Another Farmer defection from 1996.
Photos: Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-19... Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net
what's the collective view on the capability of their Air Force
Numbers do seem their only advantage, but what happened in the 'mother of all retreats' from Kuwait in 1991 suggests that with the USAF/ROKAF operating with air supremacy North Korean losses would be horrendous.
Not, I suspect, that Kim Jong-Un would be too bothered about that if his army still reached Seoul.
Not, I suspect, that Kim Jong-Un would be too bothered about that if his army still reached Seoul.
Coff,
It's been a while since I saw any facts and figures on NK, but I would think your numbers are pretty good. Their very low flying rates (and the highly limited training they're likely to be doing in the air) would obviously imopact their capability and would severely restrict their abaility to conduct sustained and high-paced ops for real.
So I doubt the South would be too worried about attack from the air (staying conventional, as you stated), especially given the South's assets and capability, which we should rate pretty highly.
Pure numbers of ground forces and the Glorious Leader's complete disregard for losses could be a real worry, though. I doubt he'd be too concerned if he took a lot of civilian hits either so he would have complete moral freedom of operation. Perhaps I should say freedom from any moral issues.
Another problem to consider must be China's intervention, especially if western forces ever tried to operate in their back yard. Despite their recent cooling towards NK, I don't think they's sit idly by.
It's been a while since I saw any facts and figures on NK, but I would think your numbers are pretty good. Their very low flying rates (and the highly limited training they're likely to be doing in the air) would obviously imopact their capability and would severely restrict their abaility to conduct sustained and high-paced ops for real.
So I doubt the South would be too worried about attack from the air (staying conventional, as you stated), especially given the South's assets and capability, which we should rate pretty highly.
Pure numbers of ground forces and the Glorious Leader's complete disregard for losses could be a real worry, though. I doubt he'd be too concerned if he took a lot of civilian hits either so he would have complete moral freedom of operation. Perhaps I should say freedom from any moral issues.
Another problem to consider must be China's intervention, especially if western forces ever tried to operate in their back yard. Despite their recent cooling towards NK, I don't think they's sit idly by.
Originally Posted by Coff
So Mr Un continues to wind up his nation with seeming ease to fever pitch
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How would China react if NK decided to kick off against the South and the US? A lot of their prosperity comes from selling manufactured goods to western markets in the countries that would be standing behind the South Koreans. I doubt communist solidarity counts for much these days ( if it ever did ) compared to China's thirst for cash. Would the Chinese say enough is enough and depose Kim themselves?
Do you honestly think either the US or SK would waste time. effort and troops, repelling a NK invasion / threat. It would be local contained Tac Nuke weapons strikes from the offset. Destroy morale early and watch the ripple effect all the way to the top.
Pure numbers of ground forces and the Glorious Leader's complete disregard for losses could be a real worry, though. I doubt he'd be too concerned if he took a lot of civilian hits either so he would have complete moral freedom of operation. Perhaps I should say freedom from any moral issues.
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Stab trim
You have got to the very heart of the problem from the standpoint of the NK leadership, as long as they can keep the population in the dark and fed only on NK state propagander they are safe.
Once the real truth about life in SK is common knowlage the people will turn on the NK leadership.
The only problem is if the NK leadership believe their own propagander, the leadership of the Warsaw Pact did not and did their best to avoid anyone getting a view over the iron curtain, but I am not so sure that the NK leadership has a grip on global reality........ I can only hope that the Chinese are educating them as we speak !
Once the real truth about life in SK is common knowlage the people will turn on the NK leadership.
The only problem is if the NK leadership believe their own propagander, the leadership of the Warsaw Pact did not and did their best to avoid anyone getting a view over the iron curtain, but I am not so sure that the NK leadership has a grip on global reality........ I can only hope that the Chinese are educating them as we speak !
Last edited by A and C; 10th Mar 2013 at 13:16.
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A good constructive debate chaps ... thanks also Courtney 
It's going to interesting to see how this pans out ... but let's hope some sense will prevail.
Now on a lighter note I found this amusing !
DPRNK Gift Shop !
Note all purchases are in US$
Coff.
It's going to interesting to see how this pans out ... but let's hope some sense will prevail.
Now on a lighter note I found this amusing !
DPRNK Gift Shop !
Note all purchases are in US$
Coff.
