The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
And they've never won the European Song Contest either............................
Last edited by ORAC; 28th Apr 2021 at 13:57.
At the end of the last century we were tasked to fly a survey party from Wenzhou to a rig being towed through the Taiwan Straight. It was right in the middle and the radar pickup of the helicopter caused the Taiwan Air Defence radar to scramble the Taiwan QRA. When they hit the stratosphere on the way to have a look the PLAAF launched their equivalent.
The helicopter sat on the deck disembarking its passengers whilst they were stalking each other on either side of the ADIZ.
The helicopter sat on the deck disembarking its passengers whilst they were stalking each other on either side of the ADIZ.
Article in The Times.
Chinese spy planes try to fly under Taiwan’s radar
Chinese spy planes try to fly under Taiwan’s radar
30 meters is about 28 meters too high . The ten foot flying club has not been accepting new members since the new marine radars that can spot kayaks were installed .
Last edited by fitliker; 29th Apr 2021 at 00:20. Reason: Grammar
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...erns-nw8vzzxnf
Australia ramps up defence spending over Chinese concerns
Australia will spend hundreds of millions of dollars on training with American troops amid rising tension with China.
In what has been interpreted as a signal to Beijing of Australia’s solidarity with its key defence ally, Scott Morrison, the prime minister, appeared beside US commanders in the Northern Territory yesterday to unveil increased training for Australian forces with US Marines.
Morrison announced an upgrade to military training bases and airfields across the north worth A$750 million (£418 million). He said that the spending would allow increased training with US forces under the Force Posture Agreement.
The agreement, which was put in place by President Obama’s administration, gives the US a military presence in the Indo-Pacific region by stationing its troops at bases in the north of Australia. There is an annual rotation of US Marines in Darwin and about 2,200 Americans are based there at any one time....
The spending announcement follows a statement made on Sunday by Australia’s top security official, Michael Pezzullo, the home affairs secretary, that “drums of war” are beating and the country must be prepared “to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight”.*
Later on Sunday, Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton warned Australians not to “discount” the prospect of conflict with China over its intention to regain Taiwan.
Last week the government tore up the only Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deal that China had secured in Australia — an agreement negotiated by the Labor-led authority in the state of Victoria.
Yesterday the prime minister said that Chinese ownership of a port in Darwin would also be reviewed if Australian defence agencies negatively assessed “the national security implications” of the port’s ownership....
China’s foreign ministry yesterday said that Australia was “sick” and suggested the government needs to “take medicine”. Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, said that Australia was responsible for the deterioration of the trade relationship between the countries..... “Australia is sick, however it is asking others to take medicine, which will not solve the problem at all,” Wang said......
* “Drums of War Beating” warns Australian as China tension grows
Australia has warned that the “drums of war” are beating as tensions increase with China over its aggression against Taiwan.
Michael Pezzullo, the home affairs secretary, tipped as a future head of Australia’s defence forces, said the prospect of a military confrontation could no longer be ignored.
Writing in an unusually forthright message to 15,000 staff for Anzac Day last weekend, when Australia and New Zealand remember their war dead, Michael Pezzullo, 57, the Australian home affairs secretary tipped as a future head of Australia’s defence forces, declared that the “drums of war” were beating and that Australia must be prepared “to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight”.
He wrote: “In a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat — sometimes faintly and distantly, and at other times more loudly and ever closer.”
Fears are growing that China is building a force capable of retaking Taiwan. The United States has a security pact with Taiwan to supply it with hardware and technology to deter any invasion from the mainland. In the event of any conflict, experts suggest that Australia would follow Washington’s lead.
Pezzullo’s message came as Peter Dutton, the defence minister, warned that a war with China over Taiwan could not be discounted**....
** https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...ment/100096928
Australia ramps up defence spending over Chinese concerns
Australia will spend hundreds of millions of dollars on training with American troops amid rising tension with China.
In what has been interpreted as a signal to Beijing of Australia’s solidarity with its key defence ally, Scott Morrison, the prime minister, appeared beside US commanders in the Northern Territory yesterday to unveil increased training for Australian forces with US Marines.
Morrison announced an upgrade to military training bases and airfields across the north worth A$750 million (£418 million). He said that the spending would allow increased training with US forces under the Force Posture Agreement.
The agreement, which was put in place by President Obama’s administration, gives the US a military presence in the Indo-Pacific region by stationing its troops at bases in the north of Australia. There is an annual rotation of US Marines in Darwin and about 2,200 Americans are based there at any one time....
The spending announcement follows a statement made on Sunday by Australia’s top security official, Michael Pezzullo, the home affairs secretary, that “drums of war” are beating and the country must be prepared “to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight”.*
Later on Sunday, Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton warned Australians not to “discount” the prospect of conflict with China over its intention to regain Taiwan.
Last week the government tore up the only Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deal that China had secured in Australia — an agreement negotiated by the Labor-led authority in the state of Victoria.
Yesterday the prime minister said that Chinese ownership of a port in Darwin would also be reviewed if Australian defence agencies negatively assessed “the national security implications” of the port’s ownership....
China’s foreign ministry yesterday said that Australia was “sick” and suggested the government needs to “take medicine”. Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, said that Australia was responsible for the deterioration of the trade relationship between the countries..... “Australia is sick, however it is asking others to take medicine, which will not solve the problem at all,” Wang said......
* “Drums of War Beating” warns Australian as China tension grows
Australia has warned that the “drums of war” are beating as tensions increase with China over its aggression against Taiwan.
Michael Pezzullo, the home affairs secretary, tipped as a future head of Australia’s defence forces, said the prospect of a military confrontation could no longer be ignored.
Writing in an unusually forthright message to 15,000 staff for Anzac Day last weekend, when Australia and New Zealand remember their war dead, Michael Pezzullo, 57, the Australian home affairs secretary tipped as a future head of Australia’s defence forces, declared that the “drums of war” were beating and that Australia must be prepared “to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight”.
He wrote: “In a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat — sometimes faintly and distantly, and at other times more loudly and ever closer.”
Fears are growing that China is building a force capable of retaking Taiwan. The United States has a security pact with Taiwan to supply it with hardware and technology to deter any invasion from the mainland. In the event of any conflict, experts suggest that Australia would follow Washington’s lead.
Pezzullo’s message came as Peter Dutton, the defence minister, warned that a war with China over Taiwan could not be discounted**....
** https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...ment/100096928
Unpopular Government trying to take attention away from their vaccination non-rollout
Don't think it'll play well with the voters
Don't think it'll play well with the voters
God help us if Pezzullo does become Defence Sec.
War virtually guaranteed.
https://www.themandarin.com.au/15503...climbing-high/
War virtually guaranteed.
https://www.themandarin.com.au/15503...climbing-high/
I often wake at 3am - and reach for my iPhone.
I expect in the next decade to read a headline at that time - Reports of nuclear strikes.
It'll start as a skirmish over Taiwan - the Chinese will then damage or sink a US capital ship - with reciprocal strikes.
The Chinese will lose most of their navy and air force, and then will decide there's nothing left to lose, and use a nuclear weapon or two.
Pine Gap will certainly be hit, east coast airbases, and I'll hear and feel the warhead that hits Garden Island a few kilometres away.
A US city or two will be burnt.
And at that point my friends - the US will go utterly berserk - and burn the whole east coast of China.
Thus history repeats...
I expect in the next decade to read a headline at that time - Reports of nuclear strikes.
It'll start as a skirmish over Taiwan - the Chinese will then damage or sink a US capital ship - with reciprocal strikes.
The Chinese will lose most of their navy and air force, and then will decide there's nothing left to lose, and use a nuclear weapon or two.
Pine Gap will certainly be hit, east coast airbases, and I'll hear and feel the warhead that hits Garden Island a few kilometres away.
A US city or two will be burnt.
And at that point my friends - the US will go utterly berserk - and burn the whole east coast of China.
Thus history repeats...
China has an Achilles Heel; it is call the Three Gorges Dam. The water level at the dam head can be up to 175 metres. That, with the contents of three large valleys behind it is an enormous amount of water. Barnes Wallace taught the world how to break that and the resulting tsunami down the Yangtze River would cause a unprecedented disaster stretching all the way to Shanghai. Up to 400 million people would be effected.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natu...s-400m-at-risk
Is Taiwan worth that?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natu...s-400m-at-risk
Is Taiwan worth that?
I often wake at 3am - and reach for my iPhone.
I expect in the next decade to read a headline at that time - Reports of nuclear strikes.
It'll start as a skirmish over Taiwan - the Chinese will then damage or sink a US capital ship - with reciprocal strikes.
The Chinese will lose most of their navy and air force, and then will decide there's nothing left to lose, and use a nuclear weapon or two.
Pine Gap will certainly be hit, east coast airbases, and I'll hear and feel the warhead that hits Garden Island a few kilometres away.
A US city or two will be burnt.
And at that point my friends - the US will go utterly berserk - and burn the whole east coast of China.
Thus history repeats...
I expect in the next decade to read a headline at that time - Reports of nuclear strikes.
It'll start as a skirmish over Taiwan - the Chinese will then damage or sink a US capital ship - with reciprocal strikes.
The Chinese will lose most of their navy and air force, and then will decide there's nothing left to lose, and use a nuclear weapon or two.
Pine Gap will certainly be hit, east coast airbases, and I'll hear and feel the warhead that hits Garden Island a few kilometres away.
A US city or two will be burnt.
And at that point my friends - the US will go utterly berserk - and burn the whole east coast of China.
Thus history repeats...
The number of warheads US intelligence indicates are available to China substantially exceeds the number of large US cities.
So to assume that China would accept an unbalanced exchange seems implausible to me.
Of course, the other perspective is that China is improving its forces so much more rapidly than the US that in another decade, they will have clear cut dominance in their neighborhood.
Assuming Xi is patient, he can expect to prevail without firing a shot.
China has an Achilles Heel; it is call the Three Gorges Dam. The water level at the dam head can be up to 175 metres. That, with the contents of three large valleys behind it is an enormous amount of water. Barnes Wallace taught the world how to break that and the resulting tsunami down the Yangtze River would cause a unprecedented disaster stretching all the way to Shanghai. Up to 400 million people would be effected.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natu...s-400m-at-risk
Is Taiwan worth that?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natu...s-400m-at-risk
Is Taiwan worth that?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Acts aimed to “ attack, destroy, remove or render useless" objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population, including “drinking water installations and supplies and irrigation works" devices (e.g. reservoirs or dams) are banned and a war crime under the 4th Geneva Convention (1949).
Probably not a consideration if you decide to throw nukes around, but below that threshold....
Probably not a consideration if you decide to throw nukes around, but below that threshold....
Yeah - how secure do you think the US electricity network is to an Israeli style software attack?
Yeah - I dunno if I buy all this `China's military is to be feared.'
Compare the two countries - the image above looks scary right?
Except that each of those aircraft is nowhere near as capable as their respective US equivalent, and there aren't as many of them.
China will not match the US for quite a while technology-wise, in terms of power projection, amphibious ability, submarine capability.
And nukes - China has around 260 warheads according to FAS and Stratcom - it seems around a dozen of those are MIRV'ed.
The US has nearly 1400 single warhead weapons on active deployment.
Much as the popular narrative might say the US is in decline, even now, it is not a super power - it is a hyper power and it's the only one.
In an air sea battle off Taiwan - I believe the US would decimate the Chinese.
Chinese satellites would be blinded, their sole carrier or two sunk, their fighters and bombers picked off in a turkey shoot.
There would be US losses of course - a DF-21 or two might take out a US carrier and some larger ships.
But China's conventional military forces would be wrecked.
In response I believe the Chinese might be able to launch limited nuclear strikes - hit a few cities in the region, possibly on the CONUS.
But the US would then wipe them from the face of the map.
An utterly devastated China - with countless tens of millions dead, refugees, horrified expatriate Chinese watching in other countries - doesn't bear thinking about.
In my view, their posturing is really rather pathetic when you think critically about it.
Compare the two countries - the image above looks scary right?
Except that each of those aircraft is nowhere near as capable as their respective US equivalent, and there aren't as many of them.
China will not match the US for quite a while technology-wise, in terms of power projection, amphibious ability, submarine capability.
And nukes - China has around 260 warheads according to FAS and Stratcom - it seems around a dozen of those are MIRV'ed.
The US has nearly 1400 single warhead weapons on active deployment.
Much as the popular narrative might say the US is in decline, even now, it is not a super power - it is a hyper power and it's the only one.
In an air sea battle off Taiwan - I believe the US would decimate the Chinese.
Chinese satellites would be blinded, their sole carrier or two sunk, their fighters and bombers picked off in a turkey shoot.
There would be US losses of course - a DF-21 or two might take out a US carrier and some larger ships.
But China's conventional military forces would be wrecked.
In response I believe the Chinese might be able to launch limited nuclear strikes - hit a few cities in the region, possibly on the CONUS.
But the US would then wipe them from the face of the map.
An utterly devastated China - with countless tens of millions dead, refugees, horrified expatriate Chinese watching in other countries - doesn't bear thinking about.
In my view, their posturing is really rather pathetic when you think critically about it.
I do not think China is overly concerned about it's people. What was it, 190 million forcibly displaced. Affecting 400 million people would not be an issue for them.