The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
new helo bases
...
Recent posts have made passing mention of ASW - Don't forget the large helo base on Nanji-Shan (approx 27.5 N 121 E). There may be others.
it's probably another facet of the 两瓶塞反潜防御 programme, for which the purpose is to deny hostile submarine access to the entire Taiwan Strait.
LFH
...
Recent posts have made passing mention of ASW - Don't forget the large helo base on Nanji-Shan (approx 27.5 N 121 E). There may be others.
it's probably another facet of the 两瓶塞反潜防御 programme, for which the purpose is to deny hostile submarine access to the entire Taiwan Strait.
LFH
...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...could-n1262148
China's growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan
WASHINGTON — China's massive arms buildup has raised doubts about America's ability to defend Taiwan if a war broke out, reflecting a shifting balance of power in the Pacific where American forces once dominated, U.S. officials and experts say.
In simulated combat in which China attempts to invade Taiwan, the results are sobering and the United States often loses, said David Ochmanek, a former senior Defense Department official who helps run war games for the Pentagon at the RAND Corp. think tank.
In tabletop exercises with America as the "blue team" facing off against a "red team" resembling China, Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes, U.S. air bases across the Pacific come under attack, and American warships and aircraft are held at bay by the long reach of China's vast missile arsenal, he said.
"Even when the blue teams in our simulations and war games intervened in a determined way, they don't always succeed in defeating the invasion," Ochmanek said.......
China's growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan
WASHINGTON — China's massive arms buildup has raised doubts about America's ability to defend Taiwan if a war broke out, reflecting a shifting balance of power in the Pacific where American forces once dominated, U.S. officials and experts say.
In simulated combat in which China attempts to invade Taiwan, the results are sobering and the United States often loses, said David Ochmanek, a former senior Defense Department official who helps run war games for the Pentagon at the RAND Corp. think tank.
In tabletop exercises with America as the "blue team" facing off against a "red team" resembling China, Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes, U.S. air bases across the Pacific come under attack, and American warships and aircraft are held at bay by the long reach of China's vast missile arsenal, he said.
"Even when the blue teams in our simulations and war games intervened in a determined way, they don't always succeed in defeating the invasion," Ochmanek said.......
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...could-n1262148
China's growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan
WASHINGTON — China's massive arms buildup has raised doubts about America's ability to defend Taiwan if a war broke out, reflecting a shifting balance of power in the Pacific where American forces once dominated, U.S. officials and experts say.
In simulated combat in which China attempts to invade Taiwan, the results are sobering and the United States often loses, said David Ochmanek, a former senior Defense Department official who helps run war games for the Pentagon at the RAND Corp. think tank.
In tabletop exercises with America as the "blue team" facing off against a "red team" resembling China, Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes, U.S. air bases across the Pacific come under attack, and American warships and aircraft are held at bay by the long reach of China's vast missile arsenal, he said.
"Even when the blue teams in our simulations and war games intervened in a determined way, they don't always succeed in defeating the invasion," Ochmanek said.......
China's growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan
WASHINGTON — China's massive arms buildup has raised doubts about America's ability to defend Taiwan if a war broke out, reflecting a shifting balance of power in the Pacific where American forces once dominated, U.S. officials and experts say.
In simulated combat in which China attempts to invade Taiwan, the results are sobering and the United States often loses, said David Ochmanek, a former senior Defense Department official who helps run war games for the Pentagon at the RAND Corp. think tank.
In tabletop exercises with America as the "blue team" facing off against a "red team" resembling China, Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes, U.S. air bases across the Pacific come under attack, and American warships and aircraft are held at bay by the long reach of China's vast missile arsenal, he said.
"Even when the blue teams in our simulations and war games intervened in a determined way, they don't always succeed in defeating the invasion," Ochmanek said.......
The most recent games just show that the Chinese would win 'more quickly'.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...reat-kdqcc500b
Australia to Build Domestic Missiles to Counter Chinese Threat
Scott Morrison, the prime minister, has announced Australia is to build its own missiles to allay fears that it would quickly run out of munitions in a regional conflict — probably against China. The A$1 billion (£550 million) project was unveiled on the 100th anniversary of the Royal Australian Air Force. The funds will be fast-tracked to create a military manufacturing industry.
The government expects to spend A$100 billion on defence over the next 20 years. At present it buys missiles from US, European and Israeli manufacturers, through long supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption.
Morrison said a new facility could produce weapons within three years. He emphasised that Australia must meet its own needs in a changing environment but did not mention China’s militarisation of local seas. “It is imperative we now proceed with the creation of a sovereign guided-weapons capability as a priority,” Morrison said. A “strategic partner” for the project will be chosen this year.
Michael Shoebridge, a director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think tank, said that China’s aggression and the vulnerability of global supply chains exposed by the coronavirus were a concern for Australia. Its most pressing need was for long-range anti-ship missiles, he said.
If China moved to take control of Taiwan, Australia would need a lot of missiles quickly and could not rely on importing them in time, he added.....
Australia to Build Domestic Missiles to Counter Chinese Threat
Scott Morrison, the prime minister, has announced Australia is to build its own missiles to allay fears that it would quickly run out of munitions in a regional conflict — probably against China. The A$1 billion (£550 million) project was unveiled on the 100th anniversary of the Royal Australian Air Force. The funds will be fast-tracked to create a military manufacturing industry.
The government expects to spend A$100 billion on defence over the next 20 years. At present it buys missiles from US, European and Israeli manufacturers, through long supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption.
Morrison said a new facility could produce weapons within three years. He emphasised that Australia must meet its own needs in a changing environment but did not mention China’s militarisation of local seas. “It is imperative we now proceed with the creation of a sovereign guided-weapons capability as a priority,” Morrison said. A “strategic partner” for the project will be chosen this year.
Michael Shoebridge, a director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think tank, said that China’s aggression and the vulnerability of global supply chains exposed by the coronavirus were a concern for Australia. Its most pressing need was for long-range anti-ship missiles, he said.
If China moved to take control of Taiwan, Australia would need a lot of missiles quickly and could not rely on importing them in time, he added.....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...reat-kdqcc500b
Australia to Build Domestic Missiles to Counter Chinese Threat
Scott Morrison, the prime minister, has announced Australia is to build its own missiles to allay fears that it would quickly run out of munitions in a regional conflict — probably against China. The A$1 billion (£550 million) project was unveiled on the 100th anniversary of the Royal Australian Air Force. The funds will be fast-tracked to create a military manufacturing industry.
The government expects to spend A$100 billion on defence over the next 20 years. At present it buys missiles from US, European and Israeli manufacturers, through long supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption.
Morrison said a new facility could produce weapons within three years. He emphasised that Australia must meet its own needs in a changing environment but did not mention China’s militarisation of local seas. “It is imperative we now proceed with the creation of a sovereign guided-weapons capability as a priority,” Morrison said. A “strategic partner” for the project will be chosen this year.
Michael Shoebridge, a director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think tank, said that China’s aggression and the vulnerability of global supply chains exposed by the coronavirus were a concern for Australia. Its most pressing need was for long-range anti-ship missiles, he said.
If China moved to take control of Taiwan, Australia would need a lot of missiles quickly and could not rely on importing them in time, he added.....
Australia to Build Domestic Missiles to Counter Chinese Threat
Scott Morrison, the prime minister, has announced Australia is to build its own missiles to allay fears that it would quickly run out of munitions in a regional conflict — probably against China. The A$1 billion (£550 million) project was unveiled on the 100th anniversary of the Royal Australian Air Force. The funds will be fast-tracked to create a military manufacturing industry.
The government expects to spend A$100 billion on defence over the next 20 years. At present it buys missiles from US, European and Israeli manufacturers, through long supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption.
Morrison said a new facility could produce weapons within three years. He emphasised that Australia must meet its own needs in a changing environment but did not mention China’s militarisation of local seas. “It is imperative we now proceed with the creation of a sovereign guided-weapons capability as a priority,” Morrison said. A “strategic partner” for the project will be chosen this year.
Michael Shoebridge, a director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think tank, said that China’s aggression and the vulnerability of global supply chains exposed by the coronavirus were a concern for Australia. Its most pressing need was for long-range anti-ship missiles, he said.
If China moved to take control of Taiwan, Australia would need a lot of missiles quickly and could not rely on importing them in time, he added.....
Afaik, the US as well as Australia have accepted that China includes Taiwan, under the 'one country, two systems' formula.
Admittedly, the 'two systems' concept was abrogated in Hong Kong with minimal respect for the treaty returning it to Chinese rule, so Taiwan is visibly vulnerable.
Still, Taiwan is nowhere near as susceptible to the kind of salami reincorporation tactics as was Hong Kong, so any Chinese action would have to be overtly military and thus messy.
But absent recognition of Taiwan as an independent country, where is the basis for military action?
........ snip................. so Taiwan is visibly vulnerable.
Still, Taiwan is nowhere near as susceptible to the kind of salami reincorporation tactics as was Hong Kong, so any Chinese action would have to be overtly military and thus messy.
.......... snip................
Still, Taiwan is nowhere near as susceptible to the kind of salami reincorporation tactics as was Hong Kong, so any Chinese action would have to be overtly military and thus messy.
.......... snip................
The Taiwanese will object of course, but they alone can't do much; therefore, limiting the size of the mess. And who else is going to step in to help them? The once-mighty British Empire? France? The United States under the leadership of Joe Xiden? I hardly think so.
I'm afraid China is now in a position to do pretty much as they like.
China cannot forget her history. At the Battle of the Red Cliffs in 208, the over-confident Cao Cao was defeated by the combined forces of Liu Bei and Sun Quan. China is a history of warring states, preoccupied with constantly calculating the strength of the opponent, by fair means or foul.
Evertonian
No Buster - BOTH sides say the same thing and always have - for many years Taiwan hoped that the mainland would throw off the Communists and they'd be back in charge
This scenario would be devastating to the China communist leadership as it would represent failure.
I also feel that Taiwan is not likely the pushover that people may think. Qualitatively I think they are significantly ahead of the PLA and Chinese senior leadership is still prioritizing political loyalty over military competence.
Yes the overwhelming force disparity means China will inevitably win but it will likely be at a very high cost. That cost would IMO be hard to hide from the Chinese people even with the current government choke hold on information.
Bottom line I bet serious money against deliberate overt sustained military operations against Taiwan. If it came to war it would most likely be a stupid move by an over eager PLA commander which provokes a response that China feels they can’t ignore and the situation spirals out of control.
Much more likely is a scorched earth economic embargo designed to drive the Taiwan economy to its knees. Destroying the economy of a client state to the economic disadvantage of China in order to obtain a political win, is obviously on the table given what is happening in Hong Kong.
Last edited by Big Pistons Forever; 3rd Apr 2021 at 04:01. Reason: One word corrected for the poster who had nothing of substance to add to the discussion
Much more likely is a scorched earth economic embargo designed to drive the Taiwan economy to its knees. Destroying the economy of a client state to the economic disadvantage of China in order to obtain a political win, is obviously on the table given what is happening in Hong Kong.
For example Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes all the chips that make AMD's CPUs, all the chips that make Apple's iStuff go, and a proportion even of Intel's CPUs [because Intel has completely stuffed up its 10nm manufacturing, but that's another story]. There are several other Taiwanese companies that are also strategically vital to the western economic system.
The CCP cannot choke the Taiwan economy without also causing a much-bigger-than-Covid shock to the whole western economic system. "Wow, a win-win for China" you say, but not so, the Chinese economy depends to a huge extent on manufacturing goods for export to the rest of the world. If those markets evaporate, so does a lot of Chinese domestic prosperity.
I'm not sure how long even the CCP could maintain control under that kind of pressure.
A big difference between Hong Hong and Taiwan is that whilst Hong Kong makes very little that is important let alone vital to the western economy, Taiwan absolutely does.
For example Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes all the chips that make AMD's CPUs, all the chips that make Apple's iStuff go, and a proportion even of Intel's CPUs [because Intel has completely stuffed up its 10nm manufacturing, but that's another story]. There are several other Taiwanese companies that are also strategically vital to the western economic system.
The CCP cannot choke the Taiwan economy without also causing a much-bigger-than-Covid shock to the whole western economic system. "Wow, a win-win for China" you say, but not so, the Chinese economy depends to a huge extent on manufacturing goods for export to the rest of the world. If those markets evaporate, so does a lot of Chinese domestic prosperity.
I'm not sure how long even the CCP could maintain control under that kind of pressure.
For example Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes all the chips that make AMD's CPUs, all the chips that make Apple's iStuff go, and a proportion even of Intel's CPUs [because Intel has completely stuffed up its 10nm manufacturing, but that's another story]. There are several other Taiwanese companies that are also strategically vital to the western economic system.
The CCP cannot choke the Taiwan economy without also causing a much-bigger-than-Covid shock to the whole western economic system. "Wow, a win-win for China" you say, but not so, the Chinese economy depends to a huge extent on manufacturing goods for export to the rest of the world. If those markets evaporate, so does a lot of Chinese domestic prosperity.
I'm not sure how long even the CCP could maintain control under that kind of pressure.
"whilst Hong Kong makes very little that is important let alone vital to the western economy"
It makes MONEY - anyone in the City of London would swap any number of chip factories for cash................
It makes MONEY - anyone in the City of London would swap any number of chip factories for cash................
Article & photos in The Times.
China sends maritime militia to disputed reefs
Click the link for remainder & photos etc.
China sends maritime militia to disputed reefs
The Philippines suggested the presence of hundreds of Chinese paramilitary ships “swarming” around a disputed reef risked military conflict in the latest escalation of tensions in the South China Sea.
A senior aide to President Duterte of the Philippines said the “incursions” by hundreds of Chinese vessels into the disputed waters could “trigger unwanted hostilities that both countries would rather not pursue”.The remarks are the sternest yet from Manila since it filed a diplomatic protest two weeks ago about a “threatening” presence of 220 Chinese vessels around a reef that it claims as its own.
Salvador Panelo, chief legal counsel to Duterte, said the boats’ presence since last month in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone was an unwelcome strain on relations, adding: “We can negotiate on matters of mutual concern and benefit, but make no mistake about it — our sovereignty is non-negotiable.” Duterte’s spokesman, Harry Roque, said: “We will not give up even a single inch of our national territory or our exclusive economic zone.”
China maintains the vessels are simply fishing boats that have been taking shelter from the wind, and that they have the right to shelter and fish in “Chinese territory”.
Manila and independent analysts say they are vessels of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia, which is part of the Chinese armed forces.
The Philippines has said 220 Chinese vessels were seen moored around Whitsun Reef, a boomerang-shaped feature that emerges above the water at low tide, on March 7. Satellite images showed the ships anchored in bunched-up lines. They have not appeared to be fishing, and they switch on powerful lights at night.
A senior aide to President Duterte of the Philippines said the “incursions” by hundreds of Chinese vessels into the disputed waters could “trigger unwanted hostilities that both countries would rather not pursue”.The remarks are the sternest yet from Manila since it filed a diplomatic protest two weeks ago about a “threatening” presence of 220 Chinese vessels around a reef that it claims as its own.
Salvador Panelo, chief legal counsel to Duterte, said the boats’ presence since last month in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone was an unwelcome strain on relations, adding: “We can negotiate on matters of mutual concern and benefit, but make no mistake about it — our sovereignty is non-negotiable.” Duterte’s spokesman, Harry Roque, said: “We will not give up even a single inch of our national territory or our exclusive economic zone.”
China maintains the vessels are simply fishing boats that have been taking shelter from the wind, and that they have the right to shelter and fish in “Chinese territory”.
Manila and independent analysts say they are vessels of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia, which is part of the Chinese armed forces.
The Philippines has said 220 Chinese vessels were seen moored around Whitsun Reef, a boomerang-shaped feature that emerges above the water at low tide, on March 7. Satellite images showed the ships anchored in bunched-up lines. They have not appeared to be fishing, and they switch on powerful lights at night.