Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
Much more likely is a scorched earth economic embargo designed to drive the Taiwan economy to its knees. Destroying the economy of a client state to the economic disadvantage of China in order to obtain a political win, is obviously on the table given what is happening in Hong Kong.
A big difference between Hong Hong and Taiwan is that whilst Hong Kong makes very little that is important let alone vital to the western economy, Taiwan absolutely does.
For example Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes all the chips that make AMD's CPUs, all the chips that make Apple's iStuff go, and a proportion even of Intel's CPUs [because Intel has completely stuffed up its 10nm manufacturing, but that's another story]. There are several other Taiwanese companies that are also strategically vital to the western economic system.
The CCP cannot choke the Taiwan economy without also causing a much-bigger-than-Covid shock to the whole western economic system. "Wow, a win-win for China" you say, but not so, the Chinese economy depends to a huge extent on manufacturing goods for export to the rest of the world. If those markets evaporate, so does a lot of Chinese domestic prosperity.
I'm not sure how long even the CCP could maintain control under that kind of pressure.