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It's On: Iran Closes Straits Of Hormuz, Oil Explodes

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It's On: Iran Closes Straits Of Hormuz, Oil Explodes

Old 13th Dec 2011, 14:40
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It's On: Iran Closes Straits Of Hormuz, Oil Explodes

It's On: Iran Closes Straits Of Hormuz, Oil Explodes



And for those curious about more, RanSquawk speculates that the source of the data is a report in the Tehran Times saying that Iran will hold War Games in which it would close the Straits. Unclear if this is what Ran referenced when they said the Straits were already closed.

TEHRAN - MP Parviz Sorouri of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has said that Iran plans to practice its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints, which accounts for about 30% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.
“Currently, the Middle East region supplies 70 percent of the world’s energy needs, (most of) which are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. We will hold an exercise to close the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure,” ISNA quoted Sorouri as saying on Tuesday.
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Old 13th Dec 2011, 14:49
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worth repeating in its entirety - from FARS today
issued today

Fars News Agency :: MP: Iran to Stage Military Drill to Close Straits of Hormuz

MP: Iran to Stage Military Drill to Close Straits of Hormuz
TEHRAN (FNA)- A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission said the military was set to practice its ability to close the Persian Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world.



"Soon we will hold a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure," Parviz Sorouri said.

Israel and its close ally the United States have recently intensified their war rhetoric against Iran. The two arch foes of the Islamic Republic accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, while they have never presented any corroborative document to substantiate their allegations. Both Washington and Tel Aviv possess advanced weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear warheads.

Iran vehemently denies the charges, insisting that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Tehran stresses that the country has always pursued a civilian path to provide power to the growing number of Iranian population, whose fossil fuel would eventually run dry.

Iran has, in return, warned that it would target Israel and its worldwide interests in case it comes under attack by the Tel Aviv.

The United States has long stressed that military action is a main option for the White House to deter Iran's progress in the field of nuclear technology.

Iran has warned it could close the strategic Strait of Hormoz if it became the target of a military attack over its nuclear program.

Iran has warned that in case of an attack by either the US or Israel, it will target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the strategic Strait of Hormoz.

An estimated 40 percent of the world's oil supply passes through the waterway.

Iran's naval power has even been acknowledged by foes. In a Sep. 11, 2008 report, the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy also said that in the two decades since the Iraqi imposed war on Iran, the Islamic Republic has excelled in naval capabilities and is able to wage unique asymmetric warfare against larger naval forces.

According to the report, Iran's Navy has been transformed into a highly motivated, well-equipped, and well-financed force and is effectively in control of the world's oil lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz.

The study says that if Washington takes military action against the Islamic Republic, the scale of Iran's response would likely be proportional to the scale of the damage inflicted on Iranian assets.

Meantime, a recent study by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a prestigious American think tank, has found that a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities "is unlikely" to delay the country's program.

The ISIS study also cautioned that an attack against Iran would backfire by compelling the country to acquire nuclear weaponry.

A recent study by a fellow at Harvard's Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Caitlin Talmadge, warned that Iran could use mines as well as missiles to block the strait, and that "it could take many weeks, even months, to restore the full flow of commerce, and more time still for the oil markets to be convinced that stability has returned".
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Old 13th Dec 2011, 14:58
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Well, I have got the BBC World News on the TV at the moment and there has been no report of such an incident - nothing on CEEFAX either.
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Old 13th Dec 2011, 15:08
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They are waving their Willy....and only threatening to hold a drill....as even the Mullahs know attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz to shipping traffic would kick off such a retalitory response that even their eyes would water!

They might use harrassment tactics...sea mines...surface attack by small boats....but a full fledged blocking of the shipping lane....not in their life time.

Well...it would be just prior to the quick end of their life time anyway!
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Old 13th Dec 2011, 15:08
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Seems to be a massive hoax played out by the Iranians as Reuters and co are all claiming the Straits are open. I guess it just emphasizes the weight they have over oil prices. Good warning shot. They did put the price up by $2.5 a barrel in a matter of minutes until people realised what was going on!
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Old 13th Dec 2011, 15:12
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I think the key word is "practice"
That can mean anything from a paperwork exercise, a token one hour stoppage, close surveillance to an all-out blockade
It is worth noting the Iranian navy is about to start wargames - "Velayat 90"

"the maneuvers will take place in the Gulf of Oman and northern part of the Indian Ocean"
They're supposedly testing (among other things) new missiles and "submarine systems"
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Old 2nd Jul 2012, 20:05
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They're at it again

Todays news from Iran

Fars News Agency :: IRGC Starts "Great Prophet 7" Missile Wargames
"TEHRAN (FNA)- The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) started massive missile wargames, codenamed Payambar-e Azam 7 (The Great Prophet 7), which include heavy missile tests in various places across the country.

"The participating IRGC missile units and bases started the preparatory phase of the wargames earlier today with the transfer of equipments to specified positions.
Given the fact that the IRGC is going to test targeting hypothetical enemy air bases in desert, the IRGC missile units will take short, middle and long range missile ammunitions to different positions around the country to test their capability of hitting such bases.
Different types of Shahab 1, 2 and 3 missiles, Fateh, Tondar, Zahzal, Persian Gulf and Qiyam missiles will be tested in the wargames.
Yesterday, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh told reporters that the wargames are scheduled to last three days.
The commander said that the IRGC will fire tens of Qiyam ballistic missiles and Persian Gulf ballistic sea missiles in the drills to test and assess their performance.
The Iranian Defense Ministry started supplying large numbers of 'Qiyam (Rise) 1' high-precision ballistic missiles to the Aerospace Force of the IRGC in May.
In early 2011, Iran started the mass-production of the Persian Gulf anti-ship missile which is designed to destroy targets and hostile forces at sea.
The supersonic projectile, which carries a 650-kilogram warhead, is immune to interception and features high-precision systems. "

Especially interesting when taken together with this report yesterday
Fars News Agency :: IRGC Developing Missiles with Radar-Hitting Capability
about a new 300km range anti-radar ballistic missile
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Old 2nd Jul 2012, 22:40
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Damn, I bet the Royal Navy were already drawing straws to see who would get a new ill fitting suit out of it all.




The supersonic projectile, which carries a 650-kilogram warhead, is immune to interception and features high-precision systems. "
I wonder if they copied that phrase from the US UAV brochure.

Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd Jul 2012 at 22:42.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 00:33
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Doesn't really matter if it can be intercepted or not
The Iranians say they can afford to fire off "tens" of them during wargames, implying they've a whole lot more
We've one T45 on station. How many air defence missiles does it carry? 48? If the Iranians threw in a few sea skimmers at the same time, and maybe the odd drone or so to act as decoys, how long would those defences last?
OK so the ship will probably be close to an Aegis or two, but the same numbers game still works against it. All the advanced radar in the world isn't going to help if you don't have enough missiles for the radar to guide...

Last edited by Milo Minderbinder; 3rd Jul 2012 at 07:29.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 06:55
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Perhaps the US will stage an 'opening up of the straits' exercise as soon as Iran starts their show of defiance...
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 08:58
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Historically the RN has always grossly over estimated the survivability of its ships to air attack
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 09:23
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Go on then Harry.

Justify that statement.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 11:04
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Err the Falklands did that.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 11:19
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I think he just handed you your arse in a bag matey.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 12:49
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I disagree. The RN knew exactly how vulnerable their ships were to air attack. Think Pom Poms or Sea Cat. We were under no illusion hence so much time spent on manoeuvre rather than hard kill.

Last edited by Navaleye; 3rd Jul 2012 at 12:52. Reason: Can't spell
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 14:36
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Exactly Navaleye.

It was correctly estimated that we would lose ships. Some estimated that we would lose more.
We did.
It is called war.

It is something that military forces have to accept if they put themselves in harms way.
A military force that is unwilling to accept losses is a chocolate fire guard.

Incidentally, since the RN practically invented the airborne destruction of a fleet at Taranto, I think it is moronic to suggest we underestimate the threat.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 14:56
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OK - fair comment.

So - how come more 'guns' weren't added &c to attempt to address these issues? Or was this again; no money, no time, no infrastructure...?
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 15:03
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Get your heating oil tanks filled guys!! Even if it is a bluff the boys in suits will be speculating again
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 17:29
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Load

Did you imagine that every Tornado in Gulf 1 would come back?
That every tank in WW2 would survive?
Do you think that it would be sensible to train every soldier to SF standards?

There come a point where the cost of making the perfect warship/aircraft/soldier means you can only buy one (F22?), and it may be better to have lots of imperfect.

There is both a law of diminishing returns and an arms race going on, and in 1982 the Exocet was difficult to counter.
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Old 3rd Jul 2012, 17:52
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Hmm.

A wise man once told me there was nothing glorious about war.

Took me 23 years to find out he was right.......
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