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15 ton "Big blu"

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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 10:31
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Very interesting, SAM, and I think we're in your area here. The only bit I don't get is if this was a maintenance depot and not a launch site (as it clearly wasn't) why would the be fuelling/defuelling? Testing? Maybe they just don't care how dangerous that is. They're only conscripts.

The article says "Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred."
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 10:34
  #122 (permalink)  
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Anyone know how the Iranians fuel their rockets? Hydrazine?
Possibly. Chinese space launchers have exhibited a distinctivly coloured smoke plume, similar to that of the hydrazine fuelled Titan ICBM. There appears to have been a fair amount of tech transfer from PRC to Iran - indirectly via Pakistan and/or NK.

Anyway, I guess they could have been 'mucking about' with hypergolic fuel, so no ignition source needed.

They might have chosen to do it indoors at an 'innocent' looking industrial site so sats couldn't get a look at what was going on.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 11:37
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Looks like all Bets are OFF.

PS. He has obviously never experienced a Gulf thunderstorm!

Last edited by cazatou; 2nd Dec 2011 at 11:59.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 12:36
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I sometimes find this thread hard to follow!

Interesting to go onto Google Earth. About 32.2 miles west of Tehran (261° from the red star that marks Tehran) you will find the Bid Kaneh compound. Good detail on this picture. Now follow the road to the south and you'll find some very interesting stuff in the desert. Fairly obvious what most of it is.

To the east of the compound you'll see a road that disappear into the hillside. Plenty of earth covered shelters. No obvious launch site.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 12:38
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Oh, yes. Earth berms could be launch sites, but no permanent structure.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 13:09
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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SAM
You don't need to lecture to me about the dangers of rocket fuels - I've had to handle in anger anhydrous hydrazine, dimethylhydrazine, hydrogen (and other) peroxides and a range of other nastys. For chemical - not rocketry - use, but the hazards are the same. I still have scars on my hands from Sodium peroxide igniting the safety gloves I was wearing

I (and I think we all) know a liquid fuelled rocket is not instantly deployable because of the dangers inherent in the fuel and design. Thats why I said what I did, and why I beleive your comment about fuelling / defuelling inside that shed is nonsense. OK you could do a trial run in there, but the shed looks too low to hold an erect missile and platform. You wouldn't want to fuel it while lying down - the side walls of the rocket would fracture under the weight
I rather think that you've misunderstood - possibly deliberately - what I said.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 13:55
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Apparently I "was" an artificer on the flying Pie oven ( with the greatest and humblest of respect to crew 3 - up the Duck! )

Bwah hah hah, Little does he know about the little that I know - if he knew what I know I'd know a little - I think....

does anyone remember a rank in the RAF engineers of Artificer? Alas I never came across it. Don't zobbin cadets get taught rank structure at Cranditz?? I bet even a senile old fart Like Beagle could remember us Oik's ranks.....

Beags - If I don't insult you again a'fore Christmas may I wish you and yours all the blessings of the season.

Fly safe
CS.

And Byeeeee Sam
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 14:15
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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cazatou Looks like all Bets are OFF.
BS. Not as far as I am concerned.


SAM
"I'll bow out now & ask the Mods to remove my ability, please, to post again."

You don't get out of it that easily unless you just want to confirm my (and probably others) suspicions in terms of wriggling out of it.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 14:22
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SAM

You say "These missiles are extremely unstable due to liquid propellant (I wouldn't go within 1000 metres of one..). They are operated by conscripts under duress, who probably haven't a clue what they are doing."

I was always under the impression that the Revolutionary Guard operated an autonomous missile command and the Revolutionary Guard were not a bunch of conscripts ?

I also find it hard to believe they would stick conscripts in charge of missiles or anything to do with them.


Ungrounded earth cable ? Very specific, too specific but it does follow on from my Static electricity comment.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 17:03
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I tort I saw a puddy tat, and also that Sam was going.
Attention seeking walting troll - not that I am calling him this you understand, just what I think of him.
it's a bit late to talk about closing the thread when you are the one who posted all the naughty gen (what you think you know of it) and then accusing the rest of us of breaking OS, opsec etc.

Next you will be opening a thread about mach 7 planes or rail guns or some such....

ta ta
CS
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 18:40
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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500N points out that SAM said ...
Originally Posted by Sam
"These missiles are extremely unstable due to liquid propellant (I wouldn't go within 1000 metres of one..). They are operated by conscripts under duress, who probably haven't a clue what they are doing."
That he did, which got me chortling.
Originally Posted by 500N
I was always under the impression that the Revolutionary Guard operated an autonomous missile command and the Revolutionary Guard were not a bunch of conscripts ?
As was I. Perhaps my intel needs updating, or perhaps "someone"
ought to look more deeply into who does what in Iran's various military organizations.
I also find it hard to believe they would stick conscripts in charge of missiles or anything to do with them.
The Iranians may be "the enemy" for the time being, but they ain't idiots.

Even in professional and generally competent military organizations, cock ups are not that rare. A few years back, the USAF had an incident where incorrectly safed nuc weapons were flown from pt A to pt B, in violation of any number of regs and safeguards. That got a few people fired, a whole lot of press coverage and egg on USAF faces, and a review of "just how we are supposed to handle these very dangerous things" done to find out how to prevent such a cock up.

Our counterparts in the Iranian Armed Forces, be they regular or Rev Guard, are human, and will be as susceptible to various cock ups as anyone, if not moreso in some of the less professional formations.

For all: been very intrigued by the Damage Assessments offered up in the last few pages, tip of the cap to you all. Good food for thought.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 5th Dec 2011 at 14:58.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 18:52
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Lone wolf

"They may be an enemy, but they ain't idiots."

Yep, and just like Israel, I wouldn't under estimate them. They are prone to have the balls to do things, just like Saddam.

On that subject, Iran seems to have a big disparity between the "conscript type" front line troops used as Inf in the wars ie versus Iraq) and the Revolutionary Guards and what they do / control.



Am I mistaken or are their similarities between SAM on this thread and TOURIST on the SARH thread ?


Cornish, JUST FOR YOU THIS CHRISTMAS

I Twaut I Taw a Puddy Tat !
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 19:07
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Since I was the first to make a bet with SAM that he was full of it, that would make things really confused.....
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 19:08
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I've given the SARH thread a miss.

Perhaps I ought to sample it .
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 19:14
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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Tourist,
I meant the gist of it and the fact you and someone else are disagreeing along similar lines. I know SFA about SAR, only ever jumped out of helos on a rope so can't comment on the tech side of things.

Lonewolf
Only go in to it occasionally and just did and that's when I saw the similarity.

.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 20:00
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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My brother in law spent 2 years as a conscript in the Iranian army and got a) raging ****s from the insanitary conditions in his training camp, b) two changes of clothes per week, c) a tedious 18 posting doing a boring, undemanding admin job in an office (bearing in mind that he had a good engineering degree pre conscription). Most conscripts seem to receive enough training to make themselves suitable to be cannon fodder and once their basic training is over they end up working in offices or guarding museums. I doubt whether the Republican Guard are quite as badly treated or trained though.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 20:15
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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Lonewolf
"Even in professional and generally competent military organizations, cock ups are not that rare. A few years back, the USAF had an incident where incorrectly safed nuc weapons were flown from pt A to pt B, in violation of any number of regs and safeguards. That got a few people fired, a whole lot of press coverage and egg on USAF faces, and a review of "just how we are supposed to handle these very dangerous things" done to find out how to prevent such type of dog up."

Some very interesting reports exist for that incident and the follow up, it was more than a "few" that got fired - I think close to 70 people. I think (from memory), even some of the higher ups sent in to clean up the situation got fired as well a short time later for lack of performance in cleaning up the mess.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 20:46
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Heads needed to roll, and I'm glad more than a few did.

That's the sort of cock up that the system is designed to prevent.
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 23:17
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Re damage assessment, I have now found what I was looking for.

Here is an article where you can download or open a high res photo in Google earth and then look at the photo from near ground level. It is not a true 3D but allows closer inspection of the damage.

Iran missile base post-explosion imagery, now hi-res in Google Earth | Ogle Earth

The file is under this bit of text in the article
Here is the resulting KMZ file


Once in google earth, it is evident
1. Some sides of the base, a bit away from the buildings have an earthen berm around as you can see the scrape marks from the bulldozer.
2. You can still see the scorch marks on the earth. I think the explosion was slightly / 1 building down from my original estimate.
3. Those long rectangular items, trucks or the back end of the trucks for carrying missiles, either in a container or on the back in a launcher.
4. Those long blue buildings, certainly long enough to contain a rocket / missile plus room to take the warhead apart - which is what they were said to be doing in one article.

5. The important one. Even though it is not a true 3D image, luckily the photo was taken with the sun at quite a low angle so you can get an idea via the shadows of the building how much of it is standing and to an extent how intact it is (by how sharp the shadow line is).

Some of the shadows of the buildings show that the roof structures of them are a tangled mess of metal.

Other buildings, such as the one's we all think were at the centre of the explosion create no shadow and so I think no structure to them has been left standing - OR they were bulldozed immediately.

The explosion was heard 25kms away. The White smoke certainly went high enough.

Your thoughts ?
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Old 2nd Dec 2011, 23:39
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looking at the scorching I'd say you have THREE heat sources there
Two buildings, both below the blue one you initially said, but also one on the northeast side of that missing blue building - the road there is scorched / cratered
Secondary explosion from a vehicle?


What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence
That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across

PS best way to scale things is from that green hockey pitch top centre (thats real hockey not the icey stuff)

Last edited by jamesdevice; 2nd Dec 2011 at 23:52.
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