Stand down chaps, Libya announce ceasefire.
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Ha, I would say that they have just trumped the UN security council. But we will see what happens. The world wants him gone but how are they going to do that now if he does indeed stop the killing?
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As the NFZ was aimed at preventing an outright assault on rebels in the east and Benghazi in particular, this is a smart move on his part. It might also satisfy many in the UN, at least for the time being, if the Resolution has had the desired effect.
We may now have a stand off. Do the rebels really offer a popular and credible alternative Government? Will Libya fragment leaving the Colonel in power in the West and South? Will the West push for regime change?
To proceed with the NFZ as a show of force might stiffen the resolve of the rebels and lead them to move West again. Then what? Do we provide their CAS?
We may now have a stand off. Do the rebels really offer a popular and credible alternative Government? Will Libya fragment leaving the Colonel in power in the West and South? Will the West push for regime change?
To proceed with the NFZ as a show of force might stiffen the resolve of the rebels and lead them to move West again. Then what? Do we provide their CAS?
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If we go into Libya to back up the rebels who want democracy then do we prepare to go into Bahrain, Yemen, and ultimately Saudi Arabia should their populations rise up and want to live in a democracy while their governments shoot them in the street, indeed will our intervention inspire rebellion from those people believing that we will back them up should they be unable to manage it alone???
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That could potentially highlight the hypocrisy in western "democracy" couldn't it.... Interesting times! Do we believe in encouraging the will of the people and real democracy, or do we believe in protecting our friends and allies and pet benevolent dictators?
Several steps here..
1) The protests start, they cannot be controlled
2) The government send in the troops to sort the protests out
3) The protestors start to fight back, people are dying
4) The world asks them to stop, they refuse
5) The world looks to put troops on the ground to prevent it happening, they need the UN backing for this. Meanwhilst the fighting still goes on.
6) The UN backing is given, a ceasefire is made. UN troops move closer on hold.
7) The protests return, larger in size this time. The police try to hold things back.
8) Things cannot be contained by the police, armed force presence is needed to hold the country.
9) Fighting starts again.
10) UN move in.
I fully see now that we are at Step 6, which has taken 4 weeks to reach this choice. I can see the protests gathering momentum over the weekend, and us reaching steps 7 & 8 by the end of next week. Maybe Fri/Sat.
1) The protests start, they cannot be controlled
2) The government send in the troops to sort the protests out
3) The protestors start to fight back, people are dying
4) The world asks them to stop, they refuse
5) The world looks to put troops on the ground to prevent it happening, they need the UN backing for this. Meanwhilst the fighting still goes on.
6) The UN backing is given, a ceasefire is made. UN troops move closer on hold.
7) The protests return, larger in size this time. The police try to hold things back.
8) Things cannot be contained by the police, armed force presence is needed to hold the country.
9) Fighting starts again.
10) UN move in.
I fully see now that we are at Step 6, which has taken 4 weeks to reach this choice. I can see the protests gathering momentum over the weekend, and us reaching steps 7 & 8 by the end of next week. Maybe Fri/Sat.
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And perhaps that scenario could be repeated across North Africa and the Middle East destablising the region and seducing the weston world in to armed conflict for years to come. Or it may not!!!!
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The steps are incorrect in that, the police are no longer in control nor 'holding things back' The pro-Gaddafi supporters and military are already engaging with the rebel forces.... and have been doing so for a long time.
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Chances are that most of the British Public will see our interest in Libya as being more about oil than Democracy. However, if it does become the case that a collective conscience formed by TV images drives foreign and defence policy, I shudder to think what could happen in the next few years.
Of course none of this was taken into account in the SDSR, the whole basis of which has now been undermined by world events.
Chances are that most of the British Public will see our interest in Libya as being more about oil than Democracy. However, if it does become the case that a collective conscience formed by TV images drives foreign and defence policy, I shudder to think what could happen in the next few years.
Of course none of this was taken into account in the SDSR, the whole basis of which has now been undermined by world events.
If we go into Libya to back up the rebels who want democracy then do we prepare to go into Bahrain, Yemen, and ultimately Saudi Arabia should their populations rise up and want to live in a democracy while their governments shoot them in the street, indeed will our intervention inspire rebellion from those people believing that we will back them up should they be unable to manage it alone???
That could potentially highlight the hypocrisy in western "democracy" couldn't it.... Interesting times! Do we believe in encouraging the will of the people and real democracy, or do we believe in protecting our friends and allies and pet benevolent dictators?
Actually Bahrain will be the real teaser - I wonder whether Obama's sudden u-turn was driven by recent events there? Maybe he's finally realised that he can't pick and chose which uprisings he supports - he's now got to back them all, regardless of the consequences.
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Sorry, maybe I should have posted this here instead of the Libya NFZ thread.
Just been watching the news with respect to comments by Mr Cameron and the speech made by Barrack Oblimey in the States.
As a matter on interest how many countries in the League of Arab States, that will be part of the NFZ coalition, are democracies and how many are ruled by the will of the “free” people. How many of these countries are actually having their own difficulties with demonstrations and uprisings (admittedly on a much smaller scale).
I think most of us know the answer to these questions but, with this NFZ, could we be sending the wrong message to the people of Bahrain, Saudi and other countries. The message being if you are not in a democratic country, rise up against your leaders and we will come and support you.
Let’s stop beating about the bush and stop using democracy, when it suits us, as an excuse to get rid of the bad people of the world, especially when oil is involved. The hypocrisy of this policy has sent the wrong message around the world, which has in turn led to an increase in radical beliefs within the Muslim world and an increase in terrorism. (anybody read the book written by Peter Arnett)
Let’s just say it as it is……..”Libya is full of oil, Gaddafi is a bad bloke, we don’t like him and he has to go. It has nothing to do with democracy, but his ruling is a danger to world stability”. “Oh, and by the way if we like your ruling party or you don’t have oil then tough cr@p, we cannot and will not intervene in the internal problems of another country”.
With the kind of hypocrisy shown by our “free world leaders” we will never have a peaceful and stable world. On the contrary, it will only create more problems in an already pretty f%%ked up world.
The term “lessons learnt” don’t seem to exist in the politicians minds and history books certainly do not exist.
Finally (and I hope I don’t get run down by an unmarked black car for saying this) but has anybody noticed how Mr Cameron is enjoying that feeling of power now that he is on the world stage. And during his speech today about the NFZ, he was so desperate to say that it was his idea a few weeks ago.
Yet another PM that wants to be as great as somebody like Win C or Maggie T. Sorry mate, but like Tony B, you are nowhere near in their league of being a truly inspirational leader like they were.
As a matter on interest how many countries in the League of Arab States, that will be part of the NFZ coalition, are democracies and how many are ruled by the will of the “free” people. How many of these countries are actually having their own difficulties with demonstrations and uprisings (admittedly on a much smaller scale).
I think most of us know the answer to these questions but, with this NFZ, could we be sending the wrong message to the people of Bahrain, Saudi and other countries. The message being if you are not in a democratic country, rise up against your leaders and we will come and support you.
Let’s stop beating about the bush and stop using democracy, when it suits us, as an excuse to get rid of the bad people of the world, especially when oil is involved. The hypocrisy of this policy has sent the wrong message around the world, which has in turn led to an increase in radical beliefs within the Muslim world and an increase in terrorism. (anybody read the book written by Peter Arnett)
Let’s just say it as it is……..”Libya is full of oil, Gaddafi is a bad bloke, we don’t like him and he has to go. It has nothing to do with democracy, but his ruling is a danger to world stability”. “Oh, and by the way if we like your ruling party or you don’t have oil then tough cr@p, we cannot and will not intervene in the internal problems of another country”.
With the kind of hypocrisy shown by our “free world leaders” we will never have a peaceful and stable world. On the contrary, it will only create more problems in an already pretty f%%ked up world.
The term “lessons learnt” don’t seem to exist in the politicians minds and history books certainly do not exist.
Finally (and I hope I don’t get run down by an unmarked black car for saying this) but has anybody noticed how Mr Cameron is enjoying that feeling of power now that he is on the world stage. And during his speech today about the NFZ, he was so desperate to say that it was his idea a few weeks ago.
Yet another PM that wants to be as great as somebody like Win C or Maggie T. Sorry mate, but like Tony B, you are nowhere near in their league of being a truly inspirational leader like they were.