Training Pipeline Clogged
If you do get told to expect a big hold, don't worry. In the early 90's I held for a total of three and a half years between courses and it didn't do me any harm.........Apart from that liver damage thing and a minor dose of the clap.
I'd suggest that if you are a serious young RAF officer on hold, that you try to get on French courses - and keep demanding them until manning take you off gardening leave. A knowledge of French will be a great advantage over the next thirty years or so.
If you can't get on a French course, then apply for the AACC - that dagger on your shoulder will give you a lot of credibility later in your career.
Even if those options don't appeal, there are loads of other courses you can apply for that will be of great benefit later in your career. And the more courses you apply for and complete, the more likely you are to be selected to resume flight training.
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Trim Stab
I completely disagree.
Whilst on hold you should kick the arse out of it so that all the old buggers with work to do can live vicariously through your exploits.
Plenty of time for work later.
So I'm told.
I completely disagree.
Whilst on hold you should kick the arse out of it so that all the old buggers with work to do can live vicariously through your exploits.
Plenty of time for work later.
So I'm told.
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The RAF SH/SAR force require only 4 new pilots for the whole of 2011; fact from the mouth of Comdt DHFS at his end of year forum.
Current annual output from Sixty (R) Sqn is 56 pilots per annum.
A cold light of day fact I'm afraid.
We will hear the RAFs decision on the 2012 pilot requiremnt at the end of Jan 2011.
Current annual output from Sixty (R) Sqn is 56 pilots per annum.
A cold light of day fact I'm afraid.
We will hear the RAFs decision on the 2012 pilot requiremnt at the end of Jan 2011.
So with the Merlin OCF taking no students, the Puma OCF closed for a year and the SARF preparing to be wound down it doesn't look like Shawbury have much of a choice but to chop masses of students - maybe if they hadn't ramped up the trg system over the last couple of years there might not be such a glut.
Strangely, most guys and girls on the front-line could see this coming but those in the higher pay bands didn't/wouldn't/couldn't listen. If all the assets are on the front line and the very few in UK are frequently U/S, it shouldn't take a genius to see a problem looming and slow down the trg system - but, sadly, Air Cdre left hand doesn't talk to Gp Capt right hand and no-one can admit the system is broken because it might affect promotion prospects
Won't 2011 be fun? Not!
Strangely, most guys and girls on the front-line could see this coming but those in the higher pay bands didn't/wouldn't/couldn't listen. If all the assets are on the front line and the very few in UK are frequently U/S, it shouldn't take a genius to see a problem looming and slow down the trg system - but, sadly, Air Cdre left hand doesn't talk to Gp Capt right hand and no-one can admit the system is broken because it might affect promotion prospects
Won't 2011 be fun? Not!
No doubt, with all the current ongoing contractual issues, the closure of SARF will slip to the right, and in 18-24 months time we will be short of helicopter pilots once again...
But why aren't the Merlin and Puma training systems taking new pilots. No requirement? Lack of serviceable airframes increasing training time for those they already have?
But why aren't the Merlin and Puma training systems taking new pilots. No requirement? Lack of serviceable airframes increasing training time for those they already have?
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I'm currently cross decking from the multi world to the SH force am I must say 2 things, firstly I'm glad I'm on a course now and not waiting for one and secondly, the fact that I'm on a course means sod all as the axe will be flying on 60 sqn very soon. Worrying times ahead.
Trim stab, what on earth use in latter career for a young JO is doing the AACC?
Happy new year
Trim stab, what on earth use in latter career for a young JO is doing the AACC?
Happy new year
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Well, I'd predict that the pipeline will be flushed out just in time for a surge in exits to the commercial market; the push factors are there and the pull factors are about to materialise.
We'll have wound down the system and face a significant shortfall on the front line.
Oh well, nothing like history repeating itself!
We'll have wound down the system and face a significant shortfall on the front line.
Oh well, nothing like history repeating itself!
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Trim stab, what on earth use in latter career for a young JO is doing the AACC?
....or a 31 day det to Afghan to collect a medal. As several people do.
It's going to be interesting, and manning are going to be busy if they want to get it right. Slamming the Trg pipelines shut is a mistake and the powers that be know that. I'm currently competing for AEF places with MERLIN/Puma OCF studes on indefinite holds. If guys end up on holds, do as much AT as you can, do some esoteric courses, but don't waste your valuable time....
the axe will be flying on 60 sqn very soon
If the student numbers at Shawbury are going to be reduced, that will leave a lot of instructors with not a lot to do...ripe for redistribution, perhaps? Deep joy all round...
Although probably in reduced numbers, inflow to the Chinook OCF needs to keep going for the Force to just stand still. Expansion at Odiham is just around the corner, and I wouldnt write DHFS off just yet.
As for the instructors being ripe for redistribution (very communist); many are civvies, and of the military instructors, many have nailed parts of their body to LFA9.
As for the instructors being ripe for redistribution (very communist); many are civvies, and of the military instructors, many have nailed parts of their body to LFA9.
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Happy New Year all.
Ignore Stab's: "I'd suggest that if you are a serious young RAF officer on hold, that you try to get on" ...!
This is hoop.
Listen to Tourist!
Way better to have as much fun as you can summon.
As a holding bod, the career stream is an absolute dead end. Watch for assurances to the contrary!
And anyway, we're here for a good time. Not a long time.
ic
Ignore Stab's: "I'd suggest that if you are a serious young RAF officer on hold, that you try to get on" ...!
This is hoop.
Listen to Tourist!
Way better to have as much fun as you can summon.
As a holding bod, the career stream is an absolute dead end. Watch for assurances to the contrary!
And anyway, we're here for a good time. Not a long time.
ic
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
there are redundancy ripe individuals without portfolio
We'll have wound down the system and face a significant shortfall on the front line.
For the potential holdees - ask to hold on a SAR flt as you will be in a helicopter environment, learn about SAR, get some flying in and still have time off for AT.
The downside is you will lose all desire to go SH
The downside is you will lose all desire to go SH
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Crab,
Regarding your post, but maybe to add a bit of balance we cannot slag off senior officers and PMA too much - lets not forget that only 13 months ago the Rotary Wing Strategy was announced in Parliament by the then Prime Minister himself - including the purchase of 22 shiney new wokkas.
We all know the lead in time for a frontline CR wokka pilot, let alone any increase to those involved in more specialised niche roles.
If we had been staring at our tummy buttons with 22 new aircraft and not enough aircrew to fly them (as per the Army having to place AH into storage) then we would have been too quick to say that the senior management should have primed the the training pipe line sooner.
However, what is really being missed here is the link between the airline and private aviation industry with the future for supply and demand. Is anyone looking at Flight International - Dubai Airlines, Ethiad and that is without the emerging markets of South East Asia. As to the European airlines, they too are just riding out this storm and are actively engaged in demographic modeling against their future business cases - all flexible and which can be put into place at the drop of HRs hat - especially when the aviation industry is acutely aware that many of the current pilot HR pool are (generally speaking) those self made individuals that have thrown money at the problem (i.e. accepted the significant type rating fees, long term handcuffs and low salary) in comparison to the historical aircrew pool of self improvers whom built their experience through PPL, becoming flying instructors and working up to becoming an airline pilot with a solid and varied aviation experience foundation (rather than the self made individual jumping straight in as First Pilot with the very basic requirement achieved in the shortest possible time). Many in the aviation industry are beginning to correlations between the increase in aircraft accidents and incidents with the experience levels of their aircrew (quelle surprise!).
My point being that once again experienced military aircrew with known career paths, log books and flying standards will soon become a much sought after commodity that the key driver of the airline industry will be ready to throw money at to lure at a moments notice - and that is without the morale factor of the austerity measures and continued global operations (not just Afghan, potentially the Middle East, Ivory Coast and Korea all look highly possible between now and the next Defence Review.
The key issue is that the military manning levers will never ever be able to keep up (and compete) with the private aviation sector.
Lets add other factors to pure demographics and airline double digit growth - which sane minded young, bright, enthusiastic, talented and capable young person is really going to opt for a career in military aviation on leaving school/university? The negative PR and low morale due to the rushed and Treasury led Defence Review will result in the best talent going else where, and H M Forces struggling to get the right calibre through the career offices doors and into cockpits of tomorrow's military aircraft - and that is without any potential reversal of some of the rushed and crass decisions that have just been made by (what I believe) has been a hoodwinked Prime Minister led astray. Lets (hypothetically) say that a UK national MPA capability is to be re-instated, or that the Harrier (or some other carrier borne) capability is suddenly recognised as essential to the UK's National Security interests - where will these aircrew suddenly come from when the Politicians of tomorrow suddenly realise (with a cold sweat) what rushed decisions they made in 2010.
Chopping the training pipeline now is like removing the insurance policy for the future. Previous posters are so right - we have been here before - Project MARLYN (Manning and Recruitment in the Lean Years of the Nineties) was published in the late 1980s, but was ignored which resulted in the long term shortage of aircrew and subsequent divisive and unnecessary FRIs having to be used to assist the previously poor strategic manning levers.
From a rotary perspective, the Merlin and Puma OCFs being full is as much a part of us ensuring that the Fisheads get nowhere near our SH - we all know that they would open it in a heart beat if we gave them a chance. As to the wokka - we not only have our extra aircraft inbound, but also the whole upgrades to get through.
Again the key point that the requirement for CR trained SH aircrew has and will not go away (even if the Afghan withdrawal timeline goes to plan and there are no other international conflicts or 'peace support' operations) , we still need to keep the pipeline churning out potential (SH) pilots - and that is without any more push factors from the austere Treasury and the increasing pull factors from the private sector that will result in a Voluntary Outflow that none of the military manning organisations will be able to keep up with or reduce......it will be all too late by then.
Regarding your post, but maybe to add a bit of balance we cannot slag off senior officers and PMA too much - lets not forget that only 13 months ago the Rotary Wing Strategy was announced in Parliament by the then Prime Minister himself - including the purchase of 22 shiney new wokkas.
We all know the lead in time for a frontline CR wokka pilot, let alone any increase to those involved in more specialised niche roles.
If we had been staring at our tummy buttons with 22 new aircraft and not enough aircrew to fly them (as per the Army having to place AH into storage) then we would have been too quick to say that the senior management should have primed the the training pipe line sooner.
However, what is really being missed here is the link between the airline and private aviation industry with the future for supply and demand. Is anyone looking at Flight International - Dubai Airlines, Ethiad and that is without the emerging markets of South East Asia. As to the European airlines, they too are just riding out this storm and are actively engaged in demographic modeling against their future business cases - all flexible and which can be put into place at the drop of HRs hat - especially when the aviation industry is acutely aware that many of the current pilot HR pool are (generally speaking) those self made individuals that have thrown money at the problem (i.e. accepted the significant type rating fees, long term handcuffs and low salary) in comparison to the historical aircrew pool of self improvers whom built their experience through PPL, becoming flying instructors and working up to becoming an airline pilot with a solid and varied aviation experience foundation (rather than the self made individual jumping straight in as First Pilot with the very basic requirement achieved in the shortest possible time). Many in the aviation industry are beginning to correlations between the increase in aircraft accidents and incidents with the experience levels of their aircrew (quelle surprise!).
My point being that once again experienced military aircrew with known career paths, log books and flying standards will soon become a much sought after commodity that the key driver of the airline industry will be ready to throw money at to lure at a moments notice - and that is without the morale factor of the austerity measures and continued global operations (not just Afghan, potentially the Middle East, Ivory Coast and Korea all look highly possible between now and the next Defence Review.
The key issue is that the military manning levers will never ever be able to keep up (and compete) with the private aviation sector.
Lets add other factors to pure demographics and airline double digit growth - which sane minded young, bright, enthusiastic, talented and capable young person is really going to opt for a career in military aviation on leaving school/university? The negative PR and low morale due to the rushed and Treasury led Defence Review will result in the best talent going else where, and H M Forces struggling to get the right calibre through the career offices doors and into cockpits of tomorrow's military aircraft - and that is without any potential reversal of some of the rushed and crass decisions that have just been made by (what I believe) has been a hoodwinked Prime Minister led astray. Lets (hypothetically) say that a UK national MPA capability is to be re-instated, or that the Harrier (or some other carrier borne) capability is suddenly recognised as essential to the UK's National Security interests - where will these aircrew suddenly come from when the Politicians of tomorrow suddenly realise (with a cold sweat) what rushed decisions they made in 2010.
Chopping the training pipeline now is like removing the insurance policy for the future. Previous posters are so right - we have been here before - Project MARLYN (Manning and Recruitment in the Lean Years of the Nineties) was published in the late 1980s, but was ignored which resulted in the long term shortage of aircrew and subsequent divisive and unnecessary FRIs having to be used to assist the previously poor strategic manning levers.
From a rotary perspective, the Merlin and Puma OCFs being full is as much a part of us ensuring that the Fisheads get nowhere near our SH - we all know that they would open it in a heart beat if we gave them a chance. As to the wokka - we not only have our extra aircraft inbound, but also the whole upgrades to get through.
Again the key point that the requirement for CR trained SH aircrew has and will not go away (even if the Afghan withdrawal timeline goes to plan and there are no other international conflicts or 'peace support' operations) , we still need to keep the pipeline churning out potential (SH) pilots - and that is without any more push factors from the austere Treasury and the increasing pull factors from the private sector that will result in a Voluntary Outflow that none of the military manning organisations will be able to keep up with or reduce......it will be all too late by then.
Last edited by MaroonMan4; 1st Jan 2011 at 17:18.
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Little prediction of what awaits:
Lots of "old wood" (read experience) will be forced out between now and 2015. When I say "old wood", I mean people that have flown missions outside of Afghanistan and Iraq. So not really "experienced", but at least "capable".
Cuts will go too far. Airlines globally go into recruiting overdrive between 2012 and 2015, partly to replace those due to be pensioned, partly as a result of increased global demand, in particular, in the middle east and far east.
Training pipelines (IPS for ME I believe has been cut back to around 22 next year) will not be able to get back up to speed in time to match the massive number now P*ssed off due to axed exes, potential cuts to fp during ground tours and generally getting hammered for dets/flying.
People wont mind getting hammered for flying however, as every hour in the log book is an hour closer to a civilian cockpit with better pay and at least some ability to plan life around work.
A400m/A330 start delivery (A400 at 1-2 jets per month), at the same time BA and virgin are recieving large orders for 787 and A380. A400m/330 will require lots of pilots and NCA over a 2 year timeframe.
Unfortunately, the only people left are threadders with their lot in life, and the only way they will get them to stay will be large cash bungs. Queue new FRI by 2015.
If I said I know of numerous first tourist pilots seeing the writing on the wall (read no retours) currently sitting their ATPLs with a view for an exit asap, I would not be making it up.
Hey, whoever said if you dont have a sense of humour, dont join up was absolutely right! But the government need to also understand that although a reduction in the structural deficit is vital, if they do it in a more controlled and considered manner, they can reduce costs over a 10 year timescale, far more savings and far better value for money.
Lots of "old wood" (read experience) will be forced out between now and 2015. When I say "old wood", I mean people that have flown missions outside of Afghanistan and Iraq. So not really "experienced", but at least "capable".
Cuts will go too far. Airlines globally go into recruiting overdrive between 2012 and 2015, partly to replace those due to be pensioned, partly as a result of increased global demand, in particular, in the middle east and far east.
Training pipelines (IPS for ME I believe has been cut back to around 22 next year) will not be able to get back up to speed in time to match the massive number now P*ssed off due to axed exes, potential cuts to fp during ground tours and generally getting hammered for dets/flying.
People wont mind getting hammered for flying however, as every hour in the log book is an hour closer to a civilian cockpit with better pay and at least some ability to plan life around work.
A400m/A330 start delivery (A400 at 1-2 jets per month), at the same time BA and virgin are recieving large orders for 787 and A380. A400m/330 will require lots of pilots and NCA over a 2 year timeframe.
Unfortunately, the only people left are threadders with their lot in life, and the only way they will get them to stay will be large cash bungs. Queue new FRI by 2015.
If I said I know of numerous first tourist pilots seeing the writing on the wall (read no retours) currently sitting their ATPLs with a view for an exit asap, I would not be making it up.
Hey, whoever said if you dont have a sense of humour, dont join up was absolutely right! But the government need to also understand that although a reduction in the structural deficit is vital, if they do it in a more controlled and considered manner, they can reduce costs over a 10 year timescale, far more savings and far better value for money.
MM4 - I'm not sure how your post defends senior officers or PMA.
How does having career-minded, ambitious people in key posts who are happy to keep smiling upwards and telling their seniors everything is rosy help? They know in 2 years they are out of the job and the next sucker gets the poisoned chalice - officer A gets promoted for keeping things on an even keel, officer B(his replacement) gets promoted for sorting out a sack of sh*t that every one else knew existed but only came to light after officer A left post. We have been doing this in the RAF for too many years and it doesn't work - treating subordinates as idiots who cannot possibly know what is going on because they 'don't have the full picture' is a disease that has spread far and wide as we continue to promote people on their secondary duties instead of their primary ones.
As for PMA, the only people who volunteer for that job are those who know that promotion is guaranteed if they can keep the plates spinning for 2 years - that encourages poor management of individuals careers (yes I know they have a very high workload, especially since the move to High Wycombe) and further pisses those off who you have said, quite rightly, we need to encourage and keep.
The very senior officers, those who make sweeping strategic decisions without considering the detail, are those that have got us into this situation -but again, after 2 years or less, are not held accountable for those decisions and get promotions and honours all round - again.
The fact of the OCFs is that you cannot run them without serviceable aircraft and everyone except air rank officers seems to know that.
How does having career-minded, ambitious people in key posts who are happy to keep smiling upwards and telling their seniors everything is rosy help? They know in 2 years they are out of the job and the next sucker gets the poisoned chalice - officer A gets promoted for keeping things on an even keel, officer B(his replacement) gets promoted for sorting out a sack of sh*t that every one else knew existed but only came to light after officer A left post. We have been doing this in the RAF for too many years and it doesn't work - treating subordinates as idiots who cannot possibly know what is going on because they 'don't have the full picture' is a disease that has spread far and wide as we continue to promote people on their secondary duties instead of their primary ones.
As for PMA, the only people who volunteer for that job are those who know that promotion is guaranteed if they can keep the plates spinning for 2 years - that encourages poor management of individuals careers (yes I know they have a very high workload, especially since the move to High Wycombe) and further pisses those off who you have said, quite rightly, we need to encourage and keep.
The very senior officers, those who make sweeping strategic decisions without considering the detail, are those that have got us into this situation -but again, after 2 years or less, are not held accountable for those decisions and get promotions and honours all round - again.
The fact of the OCFs is that you cannot run them without serviceable aircraft and everyone except air rank officers seems to know that.
The fact of the OCFs is that you cannot run them without serviceable aircraft