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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Old 19th Mar 2019, 18:26
  #11741 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC, while that is of interest (to me anyway) those numbers (in terms of actuals rather than forecast) will likely change every year.
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Old 20th Mar 2019, 22:01
  #11742 (permalink)  
 
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I wonder if someone is looking round Salmesbury and Warton to see if they still have EE Lightning Jigs?

Just needs an AESA radar and wiring for Meteor
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Old 20th Mar 2019, 22:16
  #11743 (permalink)  
 
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typerated,

And a new airframe and engines...
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Old 20th Mar 2019, 22:19
  #11744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pr00ne View Post
typerated,

And a new airframe and engines...

Dont spoil it
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Old 20th Mar 2019, 22:49
  #11745 (permalink)  
 
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If only the AF actually wanted the F-15EX. Instead of it being pushed by the appointed Boeing guy.
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Old 22nd Mar 2019, 08:15
  #11746 (permalink)  
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https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...eady-war-48312

Why the F-35 Isn't Ready for War

.........The most important measure of an aircraft’s readiness for combat is the “fully mission capable” rate. This is the percentage of aircraft on hand that have fully functional, non-degraded vehicle systems (flight controls and engine), electronic mission systems (radar, electronic warfare systems, computers, etc.), and weapons employment capabilities—a particularly important measure for the F-35. The 2017 DOT&E report showed a 26 percent fully mission capable rate across the entire F-35 fleet. Because the 2018 report makes no mention of this rate, it is impossible to know what the 2018 rate was.

The Navy document POGO obtained shows that the problem persists : the Marines’ F-35B and the Navy’s F-35C variants posted even worse figures in 2018 than in the previous year. The F-35B’s fully mission capable rate fell from 23 percent in October 2017 to 12.9 percent in June 2018, while the F-35C plummeted from 12 percent in October 2016 to 0 percent in December 2017, then remained in the single digits through 2018.........

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Old 27th Mar 2019, 08:01
  #11747 (permalink)  
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Old 27th Mar 2019, 10:08
  #11748 (permalink)  
 
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So nearly half the price of the F-16 too, at $26,000, the f-35 is $29,000 SAR..what a bargain the f-15x is at $14,500
It just goes to show how cheap a paper plane is to fly. It might go up once they actually build it.

From the twitter link, 5th poster down,
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Old 27th Mar 2019, 16:27
  #11749 (permalink)  
 
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The link that compares the actual cost of running the USAF ageing F-16C/D fleet (and everything associated with it), whilst being thrashed on ops, against a 2012 prediction provided by LM for an unknown point in the future that excludes a brace of F-35 associated costs?

LM's latest prediction is equally slippery but the hapless optimism has been replaced by a vague prediction that it will take another 15 to 20 years to get the CPFH under control:

Lockheed expects F-35 flying costs will take time to come down - exec - Latest News

The latest F-15 is not a paper plane - it is in production and operational use, just not with the USAF.
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Old 28th Mar 2019, 01:43
  #11750 (permalink)  
 
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2019 F-35A Demo Team practice at Luke AFB, AZ - nice !

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Old 28th Mar 2019, 05:37
  #11751 (permalink)  
 
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Cost is a U shape, costly at the beginning and the end. I noticed they aren't using a fly away cost per plane, it will be dearer than the current F-35A.
Did you read your link?
SAR has the cost per hour for the F-35A at $29k, Your link has an average across customers and models of $35k and $6k dearer than the SAR F-35A. With heading to an average $25k by 2025.

The f-15EX, still a paper plane and will be different to what is currently being built and fitted. I haven't seen that they have even locked in the specs or a fixed cost yet?
Adding the numbers you provided, Do you think they can get F-15EX flying for 50% less and between 14,5-17.5k per hour? Less than a FA-18ef. It really is a big ask.

"Lockheed Martin Vice President and General Manager F-35 Program Greg Ulmer said there was an effort to lower the cost per flight hour to $25,000 by 2025 but further savings would take longer.
"Today it is different customer by customer but I think $35,000 per flying hour is a good number," he told Reuters in an interview at the Australian International Airshow.
"If we project that out based on the initiatives we have in place, we believe as we move out to the 2035-2040 timeframe we can get that cost down to under what a fourth gen is today," in the range of $20,000-25,000 per flight hour.
Initiatives involved in lowering the cost to $25,000 an hour include reducing the number of mechanics needed to support each plane, Ulmer said."

Last edited by golder; 28th Mar 2019 at 13:05.
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Old 29th Mar 2019, 11:17
  #11752 (permalink)  
 
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F-35 software is vulnerable!
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Old 29th Mar 2019, 15:07
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I’m sure a whole cabal, somewhere in the Pentagon, has convinced themselves and others that we should invest in 60’s and 70’s technology, with later bandaids added, for mid-21st century AirPower. It worked for the B-52 and the C-135. So we get a very expensive, old but updated two seat fighter (a great airplane in its day), and then put only one crew member in it. WTF? Has Trump infected the Pentagon? Oh yeah, acting SecDef has a background in military air or...?

We paid a boatload to design and field a 5th gen stealth fighter with revolutionary capabilities, the marginal costs of which only drop with each new tail. So we prefer to spend another boatload on another airplane. Of course, Boeing needs the business, shares are dropping. And I just finished paying taxes, so I feel like ranting.
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Old 29th Mar 2019, 15:52
  #11754 (permalink)  
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So we get a very expensive, old but updated two seat fighter (a great airplane in its day), and then put only one crew member in it. WTF?
Hmmm. The F-15 was and remains a single-seat fighter.

The F-15E is a two seat bomber because of the increased workload, but modern weapon systems make a single seat multi-role version, as with the F-18E, more than practicable.
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Old 29th Mar 2019, 15:57
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Umm, the latest version of the F-15 is based on the E model, which is a two seater and can perform both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions. USAF only wants to do air-to-air with theirs and so the second crewman is not needed. But taking the second seat out would add cost. So they're doing the smart thing and putting one pilot in a two seat airplane. And about that "old" technology patched together with "band aids"? It's at least as good as and in many ways better than any other non-stealth tactical jet out there. And for the specific intended role (long range missileer) it's significantly better than either stealth fighter. And about it being "expensive"? Not only is it cheaper to buy, but much more importantly it's way cheaper to operate than either stealth fighter. As for Boeing "needing" the business? Boeing is doing VERY well thank you selling airliners, Super Hornets, military trainer jets, aerial tankers, AWACS aircraft, Maritime patrol aircraft, a big drone, heavy lift helos, the world's premier attack helicopter (incidentally the same vintage as the F-15), JDAMS, missiles and other ordnance, satellites, etc, etc. And that does not even include their global aerospace support business which is also going gang busters. So no, this is in no way some kind of "bail out" of Boeing as you attempted to imply.
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Old 29th Mar 2019, 16:12
  #11756 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by golder View Post
The f-15EX, still a paper plane and will be different to what is currently being built and fitted. I haven't seen that they have even locked in the specs or a fixed cost yet?
Umm, no. The F-15EX will be largely based on the F-15SA, which has fly by wire, a new cockpit, a lighter yet stronger wing with two additional hardpoints, new computers, and lots lots more. The biggest difference will be putting in USAF spec datalinks and comms, and qualifying for new long range air-to-air missiles. So its costs are sufficiently well known that Boeing has offered a firm fixed price contract with a price well below what the F-35 is promised to cost after the next full rate production program. And since its flying now its flight hour costs are also known and are well below the F-35's flight hour costs.
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Old 29th Mar 2019, 17:13
  #11757 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KenV View Post
So its costs are sufficiently well known that Boeing has offered a firm fixed price contract with a price well below what the F-35 is promised to cost after the next full rate production program. And since its flying now its flight hour costs are also known and are well below the F-35's flight hour costs.
Oh, so like the KC-46 then, bound to go swimmingly, no warning signs at all.
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Old 30th Mar 2019, 02:59
  #11758 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KenV View Post
Umm, no. The F-15EX will be largely based on the F-15SA, which has fly by wire, a new cockpit, a lighter yet stronger wing with two additional hardpoints, new computers, and lots lots more. The biggest difference will be putting in USAF spec datalinks and comms, and qualifying for new long range air-to-air missiles. So its costs are sufficiently well known that Boeing has offered a firm fixed price contract with a price well below what the F-35 is promised to cost after the next full rate production program. And since its flying now its flight hour costs are also known and are well below the F-35's flight hour costs.
I have nothing against Boeing being put on a life support drip and honing their skills in the fast jet market. I also think Boeing should have got a large chunk of the F-35. It's not healthy for LM to be top dog elephant.
Looking at the price of the fa-18 and the cost difference to the f-15. I doubt they will get it below the f-35. Even taking into account that the fa-18ef and f-15 are at an end of run, where a lot of non recurring costs have mostly been met. The FA-18EF with pods, is bumping at the F-35 cost now and I really doubt they can build a mission ready F-15EX for less than the FA-18EF. The numbers aren't adding up. Then add in that they are saying less than 50% of the CPFH of the F-35 and that comes in at around $13-15k and well below the FA-18EF. That is a big ask.

There was talk at the time of the F-15SA being speced to satisfy Israel. I think the SA is a shell that the US will need to build upon. There are going to be significant development costs. I haven't seen that they have locked in the specs. A fixed price already? They may take an initial loss, as they did on the tankers. Do you know what the cost is fixed at? I couldn't google it, other than it's less than the F-35 and therefore less than the mission ready FA-18EF.

Last edited by golder; 30th Mar 2019 at 03:15.
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Old 30th Mar 2019, 08:55
  #11759 (permalink)  
 
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Old 30th Mar 2019, 12:36
  #11760 (permalink)  
 
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well it actually works - and it's cheaper than the F-35 which hasn't really been in serious combat ......

Nothing wrong with old technology - I'd guess an F-15 can still run rings around anything Russia or China have

AS for the military -industrial complex many argue the whole F-35 circus is just to keep LMA in business and has little to do with any real threat
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