Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Wikiposts
Search
Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 7th Feb 2016, 16:12
  #8461 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
@Tourist, i know you are not looking for my gratitude, But I am impressed that you have stated your opinion.
a1bill is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 16:21
  #8462 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Southern Europe
Posts: 5,335
Received 17 Likes on 6 Posts
I'm really looking forward to there being some technical news about F-35.
Courtney Mil is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 16:48
  #8463 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Home
Posts: 3,399
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by a1bill
@Tourist, i know you are not looking for my gratitude, But I am impressed that you have stated your opinion.
No snags
Tourist is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 17:11
  #8464 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Annapolis
Posts: 109
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
@CM There is quite a bit of technical news in the 2015 DOT&E report. It's even denser than last year, lots of material to sort through and digest.
Maus92 is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 17:16
  #8465 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Far West Wessex
Posts: 2,580
Received 4 Likes on 2 Posts
It's a monster, Maus. Densely engineering-ese, and carefully crafted to avoid words like "rigged" or "fraud", which are quite justified by some of DOT&E's facts.
LowObservable is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 17:27
  #8466 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Middle America
Age: 84
Posts: 1,167
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
CM,
Latest "Good" technical news (Also appeared in latest L-M advertising blurb)

F-35 Makes First Transatlantic Crossing

Latest "Not so Good" technical news

The U.S. Navy Struggles to Keep Hornets Flying While the F-35 Stalls

Latest "Combo" technical/political news

Donald Trump Wants To Fire The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter

Other than this F-35 news, all is quiet and progressing as planned...
Turbine D is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 17:41
  #8467 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Middle America
Age: 84
Posts: 1,167
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I'm having trouble finding cheaper fighters. Which one/s are you thinking of? That's not even allowing for the superiority of the F-35's capability.
Geez, it's amazing! One tries to answer a simple question, which leads to more questions and comments, which leads to more questions and comments, time to step off the hamster wheel... One can only say that an aircraft program that has been working for 15 years (more if you count the earlier development work) and is still in a development stage, odds are, it isn't going to turn out to be spectacularly good...
Turbine D is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 21:59
  #8468 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Far West Wessex
Posts: 2,580
Received 4 Likes on 2 Posts
Just as well nothing much has changed in the world since they designed the JSF. .



Shanghai 1995...
LowObservable is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 22:05
  #8469 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
perhaps you missed my post LO, I was asking where in your link it referred to a flyaway cost, as you claimed was in this link
Saab receives serial production order for Gripen E to Sweden

LO, I can't see the said $43 mil flyaway ..are you sure you gave the right link?

Math, baby, math. Actually it's less now, because of the exchange rate.
perhaps you'll be so kind as to highlight where the flyaway price is, I can only see some upgrades for 60 units and operations with an amount of money.

Defence and security company Saab has, within the framework of a previously signed agreement with the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) for Gripen E, received a serial production order amounting to SEK16, 4 billion for operations during 2013-2026. The order includes modification of 60 Gripen C to Gripen E for Sweden with initial deliveries in 2018.
“The order from FMV is further proof of the Swedish Parliament’s confidence in Gripen, its development potential and defence capacity. Furthermore, it is confirmation that the programme is proceeding according to plan," says Saab’s president and CEO Håkan Buskhe.

FMV has today placed an order for modification of 60 Gripen C to Gripen E with initial deliveries in 2018. This is the third order under the agreement with FMV for Gripen E that was made public on 15 February 2013. Other orders within the agreement are as follows:
Development of Gripen E to Sweden during 2013-2023 – orders received on 15 February and on 22 March 2013.
Mission-specific equipment and support and maintenance for Gripen E to Sweden, and;
Delivery of 22 new Gripen E, and related equipment to Switzerland, if Switzerland decides to acquire Gripen E. During August and September 2013 both chambers of the Swiss Parliament voted yes to the procurement of Gripen E and a referendum on the procurement is expected in 2014.

Orders under the agreement are booked when each order is received and the remaining orders are expected in 2014.

“We continue to build on the success of Gripen. Gripen is unique in its ability to combine high technology and performance with cost efficiency and we note a strong interest for Gripen on the export market,” says Lennart Sindahl, Deputy CEO and head of Saab's business area Aeronautics.
“The major performance improvements we are now performing will establish Gripen E as the fighter aircraft of the future - both for Sweden and for other countries. Our existing customers that operate the Gripen C/D version will also be able to take advantage of some of the development in their future upgrades.”

Gripen E has significant performance improvements compared to previous versions, including a stronger engine, longer range, more weapons, new electronic radar and more advanced avionics. Today, Gripen is the backbone of five nations' air defences: Sweden, South Africa, Czech Republic, Hungary and Thailand. In addition, The Empire Test Pilot School (ETPS) in the UK uses Gripen in its training programme for future test pilots.
a1bill is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 22:09
  #8470 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
TD, is it unreasonable to ask for a credible link to a claim? It may be wise not to use that author as a source of reference in future.
a1bill is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 22:59
  #8471 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
constant demands?..I'm just asking for a source to the supposed $43M flyaway.

I haven't seen anything like that for the gripen E before. I don't follow the eurocanards that closely, but when the cost's were on forums, I seem to think the numbers talked about were dearer than a Shornet, yet it was half the weight and power.
a1bill is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2016, 23:44
  #8472 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Far West Wessex
Posts: 2,580
Received 4 Likes on 2 Posts
CM - this is a familiar MO. Under one of his many identities (the others having been banned) he pretends to fail to understand evidence and sources and whinges on about imaginary technicalities, while shills and weak mods enable him. In this case, SEK16.4 billion is the FFP for converting 60 Cs to Es under a 2013 contract, which is what the original referenced story said. Convert and divide.

Anyone can look at his posts (and JSFan's, the same whinger) and observe his manias, obsessions and the fact that he contributes neither information nor insight.
LowObservable is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 00:09
  #8473 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Middle America
Age: 84
Posts: 1,167
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
a1bill,
If you were really, really interested in knowing what the fly-away cost is of the Gripen E, just Google it, you will find it in various sites. But I don't think that is your purpose here. $43M is the number, go find it, fetch!
Turbine D is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 00:48
  #8474 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
That $43 Mil seems to be part of an upgrade for 60 C's converted to E's. Your sweetman article had it as flyaway cost. I think he and it is wrong, as LO's link showed when read.

I haven't seen a price given to canada, but these 2 were found on a forum.
Brazil 36 aircraft at $4.5 Billion
Switzerland 22 aircraft at $3.3 Billion or $150m. it doesn't state flyaway.

It doesn't say if it's in year 2012 francs and current xrates is $140m
http://www.reuters.com/article/swede...8JP1XO20120825
3.1 billion Swiss francs
*added link to validate forum price

Last edited by a1bill; 8th Feb 2016 at 07:10.
a1bill is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 03:10
  #8475 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Home
Posts: 3,399
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Guys, if you produce a number to make a point, it is hardly unreasonable to request you point to a reference for it.

If you had, this discussion would have been over a page ago.
If you can't, then the number is vapour.

This works both ways of course.

From what I can read on here, a1bill is correct. That figure is an upgrade figure not a flyaway figure. If that is wrong then please provide your reference with working rather than flouncing because you have been caught out massaging figures.
Tourist is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 06:43
  #8476 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: London
Posts: 555
Received 21 Likes on 15 Posts
At the very least it is possible to convert Gripens. From the point of view of the purchaser this is just one more option and a completely fair comparison. How smart to have such a strategy that you can upgrade one aircraft into another!

Since it involves new engines it would seem to be a pretty comprehensive upgrade. To me that suggests that new aircraft may not need to be all that much more - but who ever wants to pay even "a bit" more if they don't have to?

Since the numbers involved are not large (60) I think it is impressive that it can be done at a reasonable price - what is the average cost of the first 60 F-35s?

Last edited by t43562; 8th Feb 2016 at 07:08. Reason: slightly better wording.
t43562 is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 07:17
  #8477 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Home
Posts: 3,399
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by t43562
At the very least it is possible to convert Gripens. From the point of view of the purchaser this is just one more option and a completely fair comparison. How smart to have such a strategy that you can upgrade one aircraft into another!

Since it involves new engines it would seem to be a pretty comprehensive upgrade. To me that suggests that new aircraft may not need to be all that much more - but who ever wants to pay even "a bit" more if they don't have to?

Since the numbers involved are not large (60) I think it is impressive that it can be done at a reasonable price - what is the average cost of the first 60 F-35s?
All aircraft are upgraded over their lifetimes. This is just normal Ops over the lifetime of a design.

I think this is an attempt to gild the Lilly re the "F35 is too expensive" argument..

We know the F35 has completely failed to be the affordable F16 replacement it was supposed to be.
It is not necessary to fake up figures to make it appear even worse than it really is, in fact it just makes your other more contentious arguments seem less reliable.

An upgrade is not a flyaway price. It does seem to by a serious capability increase, but to say it is cheap is a bit disingenuous.
Tourist is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 07:39
  #8478 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
@Tourist, that is what the yanks seem to do, underbid and over promise. They said the f-22 was going to be cheaper than the F-15 too.

Our F-111 and Hornets blew out in costs. Only the off the shelf Shornet came in on the cost given. Australia actually came pretty close to estimating the f-35 cost at $75M from past experience.
a1bill is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 08:49
  #8479 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Southern Europe
Posts: 5,335
Received 17 Likes on 6 Posts
Originally Posted by A1Bill
Australia actually came pretty close to estimating the f-35 cost at $75M from past experience.
Price/Unit Cost:

The unit cost of the F-35A is $112.50 million (recurring cost) or $129.06 million including non-recurring (flyaway cost) in FY 2015. The airframe costs $74.41 million, the F135-PW-100 engine costs $13.75 million, the avionics cost $22.14 million, while non-recurring and other costs make up the remaining $18.76 million.

Not very close to $75M. As for projected costs, they've been getting those wrong for years, so I'll believe those when I see them.
Courtney Mil is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2016, 09:14
  #8480 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: aus
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
It was in 2008 when DMO was tasked to estimate the cost. They said they would be surprised if the full rate production flyaway was more than $75m @.92 ER.
If we add inflation to the 2008 number, it seems a very close estimate to me, when the current estimate in ~2020$ is $85m. Far more accurate than the numbers being thrown around at the time.
a1bill is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.