Withdrawal from Afghanistan?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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This is how it starts - Afghanistan
two blogs from today's Torygraph:
Kim Howells, Afghan withdrawal and the coming struggle between generals and politicians
Kim Howells speaks for the majority on Afghanistan
Kim Howells, Afghan withdrawal and the coming struggle between generals and politicians
Kim Howells speaks for the majority on Afghanistan
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Setting withdrawal timetables is not the brightest of moves. Although, at least it gives the terrs a clue to when their maximum effort should be applied.
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Fundamentally you've got to have a plan before you spool up the armed forces to go and do 'something' in one of the most inhospitable fighting environments on earth. I'm not going to dig out the Clausewitz quote but surely the government understood what sort of war they were getting into and how they were going to get out of it back in 05 when we decided to go south.
The debate needs to happen in a democracy - as much for the sake of the troops fighting as to ensure public support (or otherwise). Perhaps it will allow our delightful Prime Minister to articulate his strategy and convince everyone of his powers of wartime leadership....... I suspect that the reality is that we seeing the debate start simply because this government has wandered into a second war without conducting the essential analysis that would underpin the policy required to drive military action and achieve enduring public support.
The debate needs to happen in a democracy - as much for the sake of the troops fighting as to ensure public support (or otherwise). Perhaps it will allow our delightful Prime Minister to articulate his strategy and convince everyone of his powers of wartime leadership....... I suspect that the reality is that we seeing the debate start simply because this government has wandered into a second war without conducting the essential analysis that would underpin the policy required to drive military action and achieve enduring public support.
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'This is how it starts'?
In Afghanistan our guys are working hard. The tactics are one thing but bound to fail if the Stategy is wrong.
And the Strategy IS wrong.
We will leave in due course. When we leave, after a while it will be like we were never there.
All very sad, but of little consequence to anyone except the relatives of the dead and wounded on both sides.
I realise that all involved need to believe their efforts make a difference.
In the short term, they must. But in the long term? I don't think so.
In Afghanistan our guys are working hard. The tactics are one thing but bound to fail if the Stategy is wrong.
And the Strategy IS wrong.
We will leave in due course. When we leave, after a while it will be like we were never there.
All very sad, but of little consequence to anyone except the relatives of the dead and wounded on both sides.
I realise that all involved need to believe their efforts make a difference.
In the short term, they must. But in the long term? I don't think so.
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hello1. You are, of course right. There should be an exit plan but that is not the same thing as an exit timetable.
Kim Howells
I’ve suggested here before that the Lib Dems will be the first part to demand an effective withdrawal timetable
I’ve suggested here before that the Lib Dems will be the first part to demand an effective withdrawal timetable
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BarbiesBoyfriend is correct.
This is the UK's 4th Afghan War - the others being 1842, 1878-80 and 1919.
Let us hope that the "Powers that be" have a look in the Archives before deciding on an "Exit Strategy". The only survivor of the Kabul Garrison to reach the Afghanistan/India border in 1842 was Dr William Brydon.
This is the UK's 4th Afghan War - the others being 1842, 1878-80 and 1919.
Let us hope that the "Powers that be" have a look in the Archives before deciding on an "Exit Strategy". The only survivor of the Kabul Garrison to reach the Afghanistan/India border in 1842 was Dr William Brydon.
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Cazatou
That's easy. Pull everyone & everything that can be airlifted out then booby trap everything that can't. IED's??? We'll show Terry Taleban & The Icom Chatterers bloody IED's!!!!!
Get our troops back NOW, fighting the Islamic Extremists & Militants here!!.
That's easy. Pull everyone & everything that can be airlifted out then booby trap everything that can't. IED's??? We'll show Terry Taleban & The Icom Chatterers bloody IED's!!!!!
Get our troops back NOW, fighting the Islamic Extremists & Militants here!!.
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DADDY-OH
If you "Pull everyone and everything that can be airlifted out, then booby trap everything that can't" - how do you propose to extract those who are left behind to execute your plan?
I trust you will be volunteering for the "Stay behind" Party - just to show them how it should be done?
If you "Pull everyone and everything that can be airlifted out, then booby trap everything that can't" - how do you propose to extract those who are left behind to execute your plan?
I trust you will be volunteering for the "Stay behind" Party - just to show them how it should be done?
Last edited by cazatou; 5th Nov 2009 at 11:44.
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Cazatou,
Ways & means, Old Boy...ways & means.
I won't be & I pray it isn't one of my 3 nephews currently serving or my godson.
How are the old C E S M's doing over there? They seem to make a hash of tactical withdrawls, from what my Grandfather recalls of his time in France in June 1940 At the first sign of a Stuka, the Frenchies downed tools & ran off into the countryside.
I hope HM Forces aren't counting on the C E S M's to cover any withdrawl.
C'est la merde!!!
Ways & means, Old Boy...ways & means.
I won't be & I pray it isn't one of my 3 nephews currently serving or my godson.
How are the old C E S M's doing over there? They seem to make a hash of tactical withdrawls, from what my Grandfather recalls of his time in France in June 1940 At the first sign of a Stuka, the Frenchies downed tools & ran off into the countryside.
I hope HM Forces aren't counting on the C E S M's to cover any withdrawl.
C'est la merde!!!
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We will leave in due course. When we leave, after a while it will be like we were never there.
As one of the last British troops to leave Singapore in September 1971, I distinctly remember that the reasons given for the withdrawal from east of Suez was that our former colonial possessions were fully capable of managing their own affairs, allowing us to downsize our armed forces and save lots of money. So, why the renewed enthusiasm for imperial adventure? Those who fail to heed the lessons of history are doomed to repeat the failures.
Get our troops back NOW, fighting the Islamic Extremists & Militants here!!.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
it's not Imperial adventure. The police/intelligence services state that over 90% of the terrorists plots they are aware of start off being planned in the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The reason the US, the UK, and others, went in was that those doing so were doing with impunity and running full time training camps as well.
The recent problems of the Pakistani government should amply show that it is a growing active fundamentalist Islamist threat not only to the West, but also to the neighbouring states.
If we pull out the Pakistani government could well fall into the hands of the Islamists, including their nuclear weapons. Those then at risk would not only be India, because of Kashmir, but also the West.
The idea that the threat will go away or that we can "fight the threat" from back here at home is a fantasy.
The danger is that public opinion will demand a withdrawal. it would seem that the the lack of rigorous support from the government, backed by a full review and rigorous review of the options, is also sapping morale in the forces.
With the apathetic support being provided by Brown and Obama it is hardly surprising that the press is starting to debate the subject and mould public opinion.
Public opinion is formed and expressed by machinery. The newspapers do an immense amount of thinking for the average man and woman. In fact they supply them with such a continuous stream of standardized opinion, borne along upon an equally inexhausible flood of news and sensation, collected from every part of the world every hour of the day, that there is neither the need nor the leisure for personal reflection. All this is but a part of a tremendous educating process. But it is an education which passes in at one ear and out at the other. It is an education at once universal and superficial. It produces enormous numbers of standardized citizens, all equipped with regulation opinions, prejudices and sentiments, according to their class or party.
Winston Churchill 1925.
The recent problems of the Pakistani government should amply show that it is a growing active fundamentalist Islamist threat not only to the West, but also to the neighbouring states.
If we pull out the Pakistani government could well fall into the hands of the Islamists, including their nuclear weapons. Those then at risk would not only be India, because of Kashmir, but also the West.
The idea that the threat will go away or that we can "fight the threat" from back here at home is a fantasy.
The danger is that public opinion will demand a withdrawal. it would seem that the the lack of rigorous support from the government, backed by a full review and rigorous review of the options, is also sapping morale in the forces.
With the apathetic support being provided by Brown and Obama it is hardly surprising that the press is starting to debate the subject and mould public opinion.
Public opinion is formed and expressed by machinery. The newspapers do an immense amount of thinking for the average man and woman. In fact they supply them with such a continuous stream of standardized opinion, borne along upon an equally inexhausible flood of news and sensation, collected from every part of the world every hour of the day, that there is neither the need nor the leisure for personal reflection. All this is but a part of a tremendous educating process. But it is an education which passes in at one ear and out at the other. It is an education at once universal and superficial. It produces enormous numbers of standardized citizens, all equipped with regulation opinions, prejudices and sentiments, according to their class or party.
Winston Churchill 1925.
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leftlegitis
Couldn't agree more, old boy. Hence the rise of the BNP & more moderate English, Scottish & Welsh Defence Leagues.
The stars are all coming into alignment....
Couldn't agree more, old boy. Hence the rise of the BNP & more moderate English, Scottish & Welsh Defence Leagues.
The stars are all coming into alignment....
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The reason the US, the UK, and others, went in was that those doing so were doing with impunity and running full time training camps as well.
The newspapers do an immense amount of thinking for the average man and woman.
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ORAC
There's a certain logic in what you say we're doing in Afghanistan and our reasons for doing it.
But can it be done?
I think not.
And anyway, even if Afghanistan was home to these terrorist training camps and a haven for nutters in general- and we stop it being one, what have we achieved? All they'll do is operate elsewhere. And all we've done is pissed them off!
We know the Taliban are loonies. So what? They were no threat to us. Iff the locals are prepared to put up with them then they only have themselves to blame.
Why should our guys get killed doing anti-Taliban stuff that the locals can't be arsed with?
Bring our guys home alive. The locals can deal with the Talibs- or not. Up to them.
Our Strategy in Afghanistan is a mess. No amount of good tactics can ever compensate for poorly conceived strategy.
We will leave. Firm.
Lets do it sooner than later.
There's a certain logic in what you say we're doing in Afghanistan and our reasons for doing it.
But can it be done?
I think not.
And anyway, even if Afghanistan was home to these terrorist training camps and a haven for nutters in general- and we stop it being one, what have we achieved? All they'll do is operate elsewhere. And all we've done is pissed them off!
We know the Taliban are loonies. So what? They were no threat to us. Iff the locals are prepared to put up with them then they only have themselves to blame.
Why should our guys get killed doing anti-Taliban stuff that the locals can't be arsed with?
Bring our guys home alive. The locals can deal with the Talibs- or not. Up to them.
Our Strategy in Afghanistan is a mess. No amount of good tactics can ever compensate for poorly conceived strategy.
We will leave. Firm.
Lets do it sooner than later.
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DADDY-OH
"From what my Grandfather recalls of his time in France in June 1940"
I would just point out that the LAST day of the British Evacuation from Dunkirk was 4th of June 1940. In fact France, now bereft of Allies, fought on alone for a further 18 days until 22 June 1940.
In the 1960's I served with a MAQM who, having been shot down for a 2nd time in 1942, fought for 2 years with the Resistance in the part of France that I now live in.
Incidentally, seeing as you appear to favour the BNP, perhaps you could point out to the BNP Heirachy that the picture of a Spitfire that they have adopted as a backdrop for their Leaders Speeches bears the markings of No 303 Polish Sqn.
"From what my Grandfather recalls of his time in France in June 1940"
I would just point out that the LAST day of the British Evacuation from Dunkirk was 4th of June 1940. In fact France, now bereft of Allies, fought on alone for a further 18 days until 22 June 1940.
In the 1960's I served with a MAQM who, having been shot down for a 2nd time in 1942, fought for 2 years with the Resistance in the part of France that I now live in.
Incidentally, seeing as you appear to favour the BNP, perhaps you could point out to the BNP Heirachy that the picture of a Spitfire that they have adopted as a backdrop for their Leaders Speeches bears the markings of No 303 Polish Sqn.
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Caz,
Outstanding - I don't read or watch extremist propaganda but it comes as no surprise that the rightist idiots used a 303 Sqn Spitfire to promote their nazi views. Wonder if they are aware that 303 was the highest scoring Sqn in the BofB and that Poles accounted for 200ish of the 1100ish German losses.
Outstanding - I don't read or watch extremist propaganda but it comes as no surprise that the rightist idiots used a 303 Sqn Spitfire to promote their nazi views. Wonder if they are aware that 303 was the highest scoring Sqn in the BofB and that Poles accounted for 200ish of the 1100ish German losses.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Regarding the subject of fighting wars I have, for many , many years, taken to heart the principals stated by Michael Howard in "The Causes of War - ISBN 0-04-940073-8, 1983, paper "The Forgotten Dimensions of War".
In this he starts by talking about the 4 dimensions taken into account when fighting a war: the Operational, the Logistical, the Technological and the Social.
The first 3 are those dictated and enforced by the capabilities of industry and the armed forces. The last relates to social cohesion and the willingness of a society to bear the price. The point being that all 4 are essential requirements to win any war.
Depending on the war and how it is sold - and I accept that propaganda always plays a major role in dehumanising the enemy - the last is vital. Howard gives the example of the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, but equally to Vietnam.
he makes the point that, quote:
"Military thinkers in the West, extrapolating from their experience of warfare between industrial states, naturally tended to seek a solution to what was essentially a conflict on the social plane either by developing operational techniques of "counter-insurgency" or in the technological advantages provided by such developments as helicopters, sensors or "smart" bombs. When these techniques failed to produce victory, military leaders, both French and American, complained, as had the German military leaders in 1918, that the war had been "won" militarily but "lost" politically - as if these dimensions were not totally interdependent."
I fear that those in positions of power are not readers in military history of the last 100 years, or very poor scholars, and having not learnt the lessons of the past, are on the well trodden path to repeat it.
In this he starts by talking about the 4 dimensions taken into account when fighting a war: the Operational, the Logistical, the Technological and the Social.
The first 3 are those dictated and enforced by the capabilities of industry and the armed forces. The last relates to social cohesion and the willingness of a society to bear the price. The point being that all 4 are essential requirements to win any war.
Depending on the war and how it is sold - and I accept that propaganda always plays a major role in dehumanising the enemy - the last is vital. Howard gives the example of the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, but equally to Vietnam.
he makes the point that, quote:
"Military thinkers in the West, extrapolating from their experience of warfare between industrial states, naturally tended to seek a solution to what was essentially a conflict on the social plane either by developing operational techniques of "counter-insurgency" or in the technological advantages provided by such developments as helicopters, sensors or "smart" bombs. When these techniques failed to produce victory, military leaders, both French and American, complained, as had the German military leaders in 1918, that the war had been "won" militarily but "lost" politically - as if these dimensions were not totally interdependent."
I fear that those in positions of power are not readers in military history of the last 100 years, or very poor scholars, and having not learnt the lessons of the past, are on the well trodden path to repeat it.