North Korea kicking off
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North Korea kicking off
Is the problem of North Korea becoming more than just a local issue?
The local news report that the UK have dispatched a VC10 to 'sniff the air' in Japan, along with a unit from the USAF.
What options are open should UN sanctions fail?
The local news report that the UK have dispatched a VC10 to 'sniff the air' in Japan, along with a unit from the USAF.
What options are open should UN sanctions fail?
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North Korea kicking off
Cunning Artificer
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the British state of readiness has been raised to 'mildly perturbed'.
BUT,
What if, let's say, the Koreans weren't really dumb and the Great Leader wasn't so vewy, vewy ronery? What if they've studied the NATO plan for Europe up in the Great Leader Staff College. Remember? The one where the conflict would remain conventional until the Soviet advance into Germany reached a certain "trigger" point, at which theatre nuclear weapons would be brought into use? The one that has so far successfully discouraged them from trying to visit the south.
Now they have a nuclear response capability they may feel confident enough to try overwhelming the southern defences with their million plus army of fanantical high step dancers. You nuke us and we vapourise Tokyo and all that stuff.
We'd certainly need a couple of VC10 loads of Pongoes to beef up the conventional forces in S.Korea if that turned out to be the case. S.Korea and the USA simply don't have the conventional forces to spare for tackling a conventional ground war against the North Korean chorus line.
Don't mind me, I'm onry trying to think rike a vewy, vewy ronery Gwate Weader
There is a short video here of the last VC-10 sampling mission from Japan - 2006. One of the pods can be seen under the port wing.
Right click on the video to zoom in.
“úƒeƒŒNEWS24
TJ
Right click on the video to zoom in.
“úƒeƒŒNEWS24
TJ
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People always forget just how capable and well armed the South Korean armed Forces are. Short of Nuclear war, they and their Northern Cousins would have a right old dust up but they certainly wouldn't be overwhelmed in double quick time. Plus, another thing that slips from peoples minds is the amount of US troops already in South Korea - 1 Brigade I think, at the moment, with plenty more in the US for deployment if it got really nasty - the extra Afghan 'surge' notwithstanding.
I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.
Long and the short, we aren't needed.
I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.
Long and the short, we aren't needed.
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Maybe he's been watching too many re-runs of Team America in his home cinema ?
Now Kim Jong Il is getting on a bit he personally has a lot less to lose and is the sort of guy mad enough to follow through on his sabre rattling.
YouTube - Kim Jong Il Inevitable
Now Kim Jong Il is getting on a bit he personally has a lot less to lose and is the sort of guy mad enough to follow through on his sabre rattling.
YouTube - Kim Jong Il Inevitable
Last edited by aseanaero; 29th May 2009 at 05:14.
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People always forget just how capable and well armed the South Korean armed Forces are. Short of Nuclear war, they and their Northern Cousins would have a right old dust up but they certainly wouldn't be overwhelmed in double quick time. Plus, another thing that slips from peoples minds is the amount of US troops already in South Korea - 1 Brigade I think, at the moment, with plenty more in the US for deployment if it got really nasty - the extra Afghan 'surge' notwithstanding.
I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.
Long and the short, we aren't needed.
I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.
Long and the short, we aren't needed.
Not so much on the Americans' numbers. They will be little more than a speed bump, but serve as a tripwire deterrent to the North and any plans to come south.
That said, if China doesn't pull some strings, then the US will most likely do zip as China will use this to its advantage - sends all those pesky, hungry refugees south and not across it's own border, also further ties up the US and, perhaps, enable the PRC's own little adventure across the Taiwan Strait.
So many handy US wars combined with the majority of US debt in Chinese hands would pretty much gaurentee the PRC asking, politely of course, for the US to not interfere.
Realistically, how soon could Australia, Japan, or Britain get to the fray?
Not soon enough to do any good or in the numbers required once they were there.
If this is more than nuclear sabre rattling to get attention/money/oil, then the South Koreans will stand or fall pretty much on their own.
China doesn't need to do anything across the Taiwan strait - the Taiwanese - now Chen Shui Bian is under trial and the DPP very much out of favour - are pretty much running towards the Chinese with open arms; and the Chinese are being very welcoming. The people in Taiwan that don't want to be Chinese albeit under a KMT type govt are the 'native' Taiwanese who wish to be totally independent.
Certainly the Chinese have no need to get involved with N.Korea as it poses little threat - other than any conflict would effect business - now that might make some difference.
Certainly the Chinese have no need to get involved with N.Korea as it poses little threat - other than any conflict would effect business - now that might make some difference.
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Kim Jong Il’s provocations to the West may hide a rational purpose - Times Online
See the link above for an alternative view on why Korea is behaving this way.
See the link above for an alternative view on why Korea is behaving this way.
John Boltons take....
Nathan Gardels: Is John Bolton Right About North Korea?
What bothers me most is the suggestion of regime change - changed to what? We don't seem to do regime change very well and more instability and someone having to foot the bill - doesn't seem very appealing.
Nathan Gardels: Is John Bolton Right About North Korea?
What bothers me most is the suggestion of regime change - changed to what? We don't seem to do regime change very well and more instability and someone having to foot the bill - doesn't seem very appealing.
Can the west do anything? I am lead to beleive that the N Korean military has conventional arms poised to strike S Korean population centres at any time, inflicting mass casualties.
This was a big issue in the build up to GW2 and it was argued that something should be done about the N Korean threat then, rather than going into Iraq.
I think the answer lies with Chinese diplomacy. China is, after all, virtually propping up KJI with food and energy aid.
This was a big issue in the build up to GW2 and it was argued that something should be done about the N Korean threat then, rather than going into Iraq.
I think the answer lies with Chinese diplomacy. China is, after all, virtually propping up KJI with food and energy aid.
Nemo Me Impune Lacessit
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I would bet reasonable money that more than one satellite has been re-positioned lately, along with a few rather large submarines and possibly a carrier battle group or two? Just a personal view but I think if the North launched anything hostile towards the South or Japan they would only get one go at it. Possibly one or two anti missile missiles not very far away as well, it is not as though there hasn't been ample time for preparation for just this scenario.. China's economic situation and relationship with the rest of the world means that they probably don't want to get involved in anything too big either, bit of sabre rattling perhaps but nothing too aggressive. As previously said, just a personal view, North Korea could well be cranking up the blackmail handle again, but they are running out of options.
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I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.
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Attempting to be serious, I think any move to go eyeball to eyeball with Kim Jong Il and the DPRK has all the potential of a Cuban Missile Crisis Mark 2. History has shown us that that particular crisis went far, far closer than most appreciated at the time to M.A.D. failing to work, and that involved people who in normal times, might have been considered very rational. Some among the Cuban leadership of the time have now admitted that, even knowing it would have involved nuclear war and massive damage, even the total destruction of Cuba, emotions were running so high and events were moving so fast that they would have gone ahead to open, full-on conflict on a number of occasions if the Americans had acted in a way other than they did.
I fear that 'rational' isn't a description that can be honestly used to describe all the players in a DPRK/the rest of the world standoff if one were to occur today.
Some cynics say that the Americans and our own governments have a plan to keep us all in a constant state of fear. I have to admit that in this case, with me, they're succeeding admirably.
In my opinion, only the Chinese are in any real position to resolve this.
If they choose to.
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The fact that the North presumably have a number of warheads already notwithstanding, I bet a lot of study has been / is going on again on how to take out that reactor; we could well do without the bastard making any more, hopefully the warheads could be dealt with later.
If not used because he's a bit miffed about his reactor accident - that of course is the difficult bit...
If not used because he's a bit miffed about his reactor accident - that of course is the difficult bit...