Kosovo
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Mornington Crescent
Posts: 274
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Kosovo
So, Kosovo has declared independence. Congratulations to them.
However, the Serbian govt say they "will never recognise" Kosovo as an independent state, and have the backing of Moscow.
Since Moscow holds a veto on the UN Security Council, the UN cannot recognise Kosovo either.
Therefore, if the situation deteriorates to civil war (and lets hope it doesn't) the UN cannot intervene. Therefore, and military action taken in support of Kosovo will be outwith the UN, and likely to be oposed by Moscow.
Have I got that all right?
If thats the case then on what basis could we send military support to Kosovo?
Forgive my ignorance if this is a basic question but I'm afraid I've still got a lot to learn about world politics.
Blunty
However, the Serbian govt say they "will never recognise" Kosovo as an independent state, and have the backing of Moscow.
Since Moscow holds a veto on the UN Security Council, the UN cannot recognise Kosovo either.
Therefore, if the situation deteriorates to civil war (and lets hope it doesn't) the UN cannot intervene. Therefore, and military action taken in support of Kosovo will be outwith the UN, and likely to be oposed by Moscow.
Have I got that all right?
If thats the case then on what basis could we send military support to Kosovo?
Forgive my ignorance if this is a basic question but I'm afraid I've still got a lot to learn about world politics.
Blunty
I imagine that the clamour amongst EU nations for sending military support to Kosovo will be proportional to their analysis of the probability of Uncle Vlad cutting off the gas supplies to Western Europe in retaliation...
Edit - Blunty, sorry, didn't answer the question.
You're right. Russia will veto any attempt by the UNSC to recognise Kosovo as an independent state, or to send a peacekeeping force. At the UN level, it can block reform of the security council and make sure that any plans for the EU or for Germany to secure permanent membership don't happen.
If the Russians do get awkward over this - and I suspect that they may do - there's little the EU can do. I very much doubt that the US could do much, either, given current force commitments, the lack of any obvious US national interest and the forthcoming election; I'm not certain, but I'd guess that any attempt by Dubya to intervene would cause him enormous trouble.
On top of that, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have said that they will seek independence (bad news for the Georgians), since they have a greater claim for this than the Kosovans. Also, I note that Slovakia has already said that it won't recognise Kosovo as an independent state.
Edit - Blunty, sorry, didn't answer the question.
You're right. Russia will veto any attempt by the UNSC to recognise Kosovo as an independent state, or to send a peacekeeping force. At the UN level, it can block reform of the security council and make sure that any plans for the EU or for Germany to secure permanent membership don't happen.
If the Russians do get awkward over this - and I suspect that they may do - there's little the EU can do. I very much doubt that the US could do much, either, given current force commitments, the lack of any obvious US national interest and the forthcoming election; I'm not certain, but I'd guess that any attempt by Dubya to intervene would cause him enormous trouble.
On top of that, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have said that they will seek independence (bad news for the Georgians), since they have a greater claim for this than the Kosovans. Also, I note that Slovakia has already said that it won't recognise Kosovo as an independent state.
Last edited by Archimedes; 17th Feb 2008 at 22:19.
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: England
Posts: 964
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
BluntM8
Nice one. Please excuse me but I have copied your post to Jetblast here
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...90#post3918490
I thought it was worth it.
Thanks
Nice one. Please excuse me but I have copied your post to Jetblast here
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...90#post3918490
I thought it was worth it.
Thanks
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Dubai
Posts: 15
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Kosovo
Good analisys BluntM8.
I am afraid things are not that transparent in world politics, especially when those two powers are concerned and always hot Balkans teritory involved.
"If thats the case then on what basis could we send military support to Kosovo?"
Who do you mean when you say we?
Also, there was no legal or logical bases to have Kosovo occupied by NATO and UN in a first place, but it happened anyway.
This is from my knowledge of history and trends in Serbia and my research that goes beyond daily news and hearsay.
I hope people in Serbia and all involved stay safe.
I am afraid things are not that transparent in world politics, especially when those two powers are concerned and always hot Balkans teritory involved.
"If thats the case then on what basis could we send military support to Kosovo?"
Who do you mean when you say we?
Also, there was no legal or logical bases to have Kosovo occupied by NATO and UN in a first place, but it happened anyway.
This is from my knowledge of history and trends in Serbia and my research that goes beyond daily news and hearsay.
I hope people in Serbia and all involved stay safe.
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In Hyperspace...
Posts: 395
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We should do the following:
Propose Kosovan independence be recognised by the UN.
Let Russia veto it and be isolated.
Say "Putin, f**king bite me" - and sit back and see what happens.
Politics USED to involve a degree of backbone and bluff-calling. Seems that nowadays, the stage (at least in Europe) is occupied by spineless jellyfish.
Say what you like about "Dubya" and US politics - at least he has balls. Test the EU's mettle, and they are found wanting at every turn...
Incidentally, why the hell are we sticking our necks out (again) for a race of brigands and criminals who are despised by ALL of their neighbours? When everybody hates you, there is USUALLY a good reason for it....
Propose Kosovan independence be recognised by the UN.
Let Russia veto it and be isolated.
Say "Putin, f**king bite me" - and sit back and see what happens.
Politics USED to involve a degree of backbone and bluff-calling. Seems that nowadays, the stage (at least in Europe) is occupied by spineless jellyfish.
Say what you like about "Dubya" and US politics - at least he has balls. Test the EU's mettle, and they are found wanting at every turn...
Incidentally, why the hell are we sticking our necks out (again) for a race of brigands and criminals who are despised by ALL of their neighbours? When everybody hates you, there is USUALLY a good reason for it....
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: inside of a pretty bustard
Age: 53
Posts: 263
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
And tomorrow wich county will be declared as a country?....For now I cant say anything....but it doesn't sound well for the calm in Europe, because as far as I know, the serbians have reacted and they attacked US embassy in Belgrade last night....I think they have the right to protest!
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Mornington Crescent
Posts: 274
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
the serbians have reacted and they attacked US embassy in Belgrade last night....I think they have the right to do it!....
Edited to add:
which county will be declared a country
My concern is for when the time comes that Serbia decides (or is coerced) to bring what it views as a dissident province to heel. Given the history of violence, the situation could descend into a bloodbath quickly. Furthermore, since the international community is so strongly divided on the Kosovo issue, it seems unlikely that a UN peacekeeping/peace enforcement resolution could be reached. All the reasons for which are given above.
If that happens, then it seems that we - by which I mean the UK Forces, of which I am a serving member - will be called upon to act in support of Kosovo outwith of any UN mandated action. Undoubtedly, we will so so in Coalition with the USA, but cannot rely on support from any other nations. We also can probably count on the opposition of Moscow.
So, my concerns are:
1. Kosovo could be the tinderbox which ignites a new cold war between East and West.
2. UK Forces will be commited to action in Kosovo without the support of either the UN or a coalition of nations. This will cause enormous strain on the existing assets, who, let's face it, are spread far too thinly as it it already.
3. The demands of concern 2 will lead to our withdrawal from Iraq, or possibly Afg. Thus leaving behind a shag-w@nking disaster of a mess, and leaving us open to the political flak from the USA who expect our support in that theatre - even if they don't need it per se.
Blunty
Last edited by BluntM8; 18th Feb 2008 at 07:25.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Since Moscow holds a veto on the UN Security Council, the UN cannot recognise Kosovo either. Therefore, if the situation deteriorates to civil war (and lets hope it doesn't) the UN cannot intervene. Therefore, and military action taken in support of Kosovo will be outwith the UN, and likely to be oposed by Moscow.
UK Forces will be commited to action in Kosovo without the support of either the UN or a coalition of nations.
And just as Russia or China can veto any new resolutions concerning Kosovo, the USA or UK can veto any attempt to amend or change the current NATO remit.
NATO to tackle any Kosovo violence, urges restraint
BRUSSELS, Feb 17 (Reuters) - NATO said on Sunday it would deal firmly with any violence in Kosovo after the breakaway province declared independence from Serbia and that all parties involved needed to show restraint.
The military alliance said it would continue to provide security in Kosovo, where some 17,000 troops serve in the NATO peace force KFOR.
"During this sensitive period, KFOR will respond swiftly and firmly against anyone who might resort to violence in Kosovo," NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said in a statement, urging all parties involved to exercise "the maximum restraint and moderation".
"All parties should recognise that KFOR will continue to fulfil its responsibility for a safe and secure environment throughout the territory of Kosovo ... unless the (U.N.) Security Council decides otherwise," he said. "KFOR will continue to provide security for all citizens of Kosovo, majority and minority alike, in an impartial manner, just as before," de Hoop Scheffer added.
NATO ambassadors will meet on Monday to assess the situation, the statement said.
Alliance defence ministers agreed at talks in Lithuania earlier this month that U.N. Security Council resolution 1244 would continue to justify NATO's presence in Kosovo if the ethnic Albanian majority proclaimed independence.
Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending a long chapter in the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia.
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Under the clag EGKA
Posts: 1,026
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A piece of graffiti I saw in Serbia during the conflict.
"Serpska na Tokiem"
Sorry if my transcription from the Cyrillic is inaccurate but the sentiment is clear, "Serbia as far as Tokyo."
What ever people say about each side being as bad as the other and whoever has what sovereignty, I really do understand why Kosovars want out. There was little exaggeration about the brutality of Serbia.
"Serpska na Tokiem"
Sorry if my transcription from the Cyrillic is inaccurate but the sentiment is clear, "Serbia as far as Tokyo."
What ever people say about each side being as bad as the other and whoever has what sovereignty, I really do understand why Kosovars want out. There was little exaggeration about the brutality of Serbia.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: England
Posts: 85
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Self proclaimed independant republics
So Kosovo has finally declared itself independant, with support from EU and US. How does this now influence the case of Pridnestrovie, South Ossestia etc. Pridnestrovie has been a self declared republic since 1991 with all the apparatus of an independant country in place (inc currency, military, border controls etc, parliament & presidency. I guess we can now see full support for their claim coming from the EU and US.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: England
Posts: 11
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Now, I may not be entirely spot on with my understanding with the historical perspective, but I'm a little uneasy about the precedent that some Western governments have set here. On the assumption that 'we' are simply allowing democracy to flourish as per the people's desire, can we also take it that if something similar happens elsewhere, then would we and our allies support it just as whole-heartedly?
As an example, let's say that California, which has just about (and certainly will have a significant one in the next decade) an ethnic Hispanic majority, votes for a Governor and State Senate of similar ethnic background, declares independence from the USA and aligns itself with, for instance, Mexico. Will the USA stand idly by while the richest of its States disappears into the sunset as it exercises its democratic right to represent its people's wishes? No, I didn't think so. Likliehood of any nations taking military action to support the democratic ideal? Errrr, pretty remote possibility. A bit like the scenario, I'm sure, but does make me wonder just what is going on here.
As an example, let's say that California, which has just about (and certainly will have a significant one in the next decade) an ethnic Hispanic majority, votes for a Governor and State Senate of similar ethnic background, declares independence from the USA and aligns itself with, for instance, Mexico. Will the USA stand idly by while the richest of its States disappears into the sunset as it exercises its democratic right to represent its people's wishes? No, I didn't think so. Likliehood of any nations taking military action to support the democratic ideal? Errrr, pretty remote possibility. A bit like the scenario, I'm sure, but does make me wonder just what is going on here.
Gentleman Aviator
Test the EU's mettle, and they are found wanting at every turn...
... and how long do you give it before France and Uk are hoofed out as permanent members and replaced by an "EU" member ... just the thing for President Trust-me-Tone to get his teeth into ...
Which makes me think - how come "Russia" is still there, when "USSR", who was originally a permanent member, no longer exists.....
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Barely Restrained,
if you want a precedent, how about the Croatian War of Independence.; Or perhaps Bangladesh, or even Norway?
if you want a precedent, how about the Croatian War of Independence.; Or perhaps Bangladesh, or even Norway?
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Mornington Crescent
Posts: 274
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Apologies ORAC, I wasn't aware that our last outing in the Balkans was under NATO, not The UN. In my defence I was rather less mature than I am now and mainly concerned with women and music at the time!
I've had a chance to read into the situation more today, thanks in no small part to all the comments posted here.
What now leaps off the pages at me is the fact that Serbs in Belgrade attacked the US Embasy over the declaration. That indicates that they already associate the independence of Kosovo with the USA. Given the previously mentioned Sebian/Russian affiliation, that can't be a good thing. However, I noted that The Telegraph analysis was that Serbia would not react militarily, rather favouring economic sanctions, border crossing restrictions and denial of comodities such as water, gas and electricity. Perhaps me may find ourselves operating in that theatre in a humanitarian relief role, rather than peace support ops.
The mind boggles at the complexity of it all.
Blunty
I've had a chance to read into the situation more today, thanks in no small part to all the comments posted here.
What now leaps off the pages at me is the fact that Serbs in Belgrade attacked the US Embasy over the declaration. That indicates that they already associate the independence of Kosovo with the USA. Given the previously mentioned Sebian/Russian affiliation, that can't be a good thing. However, I noted that The Telegraph analysis was that Serbia would not react militarily, rather favouring economic sanctions, border crossing restrictions and denial of comodities such as water, gas and electricity. Perhaps me may find ourselves operating in that theatre in a humanitarian relief role, rather than peace support ops.
The mind boggles at the complexity of it all.
Blunty
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Wiltshire
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Independence up for grabs
If somewhere like Kosovo can just declare independence like that, why are the Scots still whinging about being tied to England? Surely they could just UDI and await EU help to keep those nasty southerners away.....
Just think - LSA for being posted to Lossie!
Just think - LSA for being posted to Lossie!
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Transiting the M27
Age: 50
Posts: 277
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Balkans have been in turmoil for centuries, this is merely the latest chapter and the 'West' has to recognise this.
A few questions from the past twenty four hours spring to mind. First, where was the rioting? Serbia, Belgrade in fact, not Kosovo. Next, which flags were being waved? Albanian ones, not those of an independent state, but one of somewhere else. That in itself is rather worrying. Who opposed the independence? Serbia (to be expected), Russia and Spain - countries with their own separatist issues.
The Serbian enclave in the south at the border with Macedonia is the place to watch. If it's going to kick off within Kosovo (or Kosova, if you're Albanian), it'll kick off there.
A few questions from the past twenty four hours spring to mind. First, where was the rioting? Serbia, Belgrade in fact, not Kosovo. Next, which flags were being waved? Albanian ones, not those of an independent state, but one of somewhere else. That in itself is rather worrying. Who opposed the independence? Serbia (to be expected), Russia and Spain - countries with their own separatist issues.
The Serbian enclave in the south at the border with Macedonia is the place to watch. If it's going to kick off within Kosovo (or Kosova, if you're Albanian), it'll kick off there.
So, no doubt there will be yet more Balkan peasants and gangsters squabbling over their uninhabitable goat-crap bespattered rocks - and someone will have to stop the buggers killing eachother.
Except that 'someone' is rather busy elsewhere, right now....
Except that 'someone' is rather busy elsewhere, right now....
Rebel PPRuNer
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Toronto, Canada (formerly EICK)
Age: 51
Posts: 2,834
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'm not usually one for carving off bits of countries (caused all sorts of trouble in Ireland and tends to favour ethnic cleansers) but carving off the Serb dominated northeast of Kosovo might be an exception to the rule if given the cultural significance to them of that area.