Typhoons export chances?(Merged)
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Nope, the K is being produced brand spanking for the South Koreans, and the Saudis and Israelis still have unfinished orders on the books.
(Only trying to help, anyone seen my anorak?)
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EMP is a threat but surely there is a newer,cheaper, greater threat from infection to the onboard systems?
OH MY GOD - MR GATES AND HIS TEAM HAVEN'T BEEN INVOLVED IN DESIGNING THE SOFTWARE HAVE THEY??
Seriously though what would be the chance of that? They test the backside of all avionics software before releasing it dont they?
Could a virus come from other sources (JTIDS/Link 11 Perhaps??)
Breaking into the oppositions Netcentric systems to leave them Deaf, Dumb and Blind? - Now there's an idea!
Just a thought
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Don't joke about Mr. Gates - seems the Royal Navy's new Type 45s are already planned to run on Windows For Warships.
Lets hope that trend doesn't extend to BAE's other defence interests, eh?
"Your Flight Control System has suffered a serious error. Do you wish to send an error report to Microsoft?"
Cheers, SSS
Lets hope that trend doesn't extend to BAE's other defence interests, eh?
"Your Flight Control System has suffered a serious error. Do you wish to send an error report to Microsoft?"
Cheers, SSS
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Many many pages ago a question was asked regarding Typhoon's export chances.
Perhaps we should put all the Star Trek EMP worries to one side and consider what's really going wrong with the programme, right here and now. In other words, Tranche Two - and EF production sustainment.
Without agreement on Tranche Two there is precisely ZERO chance of any Eurofighter exports. The failure to agree T2 is already threatening to squash the deal with Austria and will make any Singaporean order a non-starter.
Eurofighter now admits that it's touch-and-go as to whether is can meet its contractual obligations to deliver on time to Austria (May 2007). In fact, the situation is worse than that and the two sides are discussing penalty clauses and compensation for a timetable that was already unrealistic before Eurofighter's optimism on T2 was blown away.
If there is no T2 agreement then we can't even give Singapore a price, never mind an outline level of capability - and bear in mind too that Singapore is going to want EOC levels of capability that are so far away right now as to be almost invisible.
The same caveats apply to the Greek deal and everything else Eurofighter has on its books right now.
If the UK does not get its act together and sign an agreement REALLY REALLY SOON this programme is going to plunge into depths of delay and cost overruns that can hardly be imagined. There is no indication that any movement is being made on HMG's side whatsoever - Eurofighter officials say the process is out of control.
The other thing to be concerned about is that all talk of Tranche Three has now disappeared off the radar. One can say, 'well, let's get T2 in the bag first' - and that's just fine, but there is almost no real discussion, planning or even movement (particularly within the UK) to indicate that there's is any ambition for 232 jets.
Perhaps we should put all the Star Trek EMP worries to one side and consider what's really going wrong with the programme, right here and now. In other words, Tranche Two - and EF production sustainment.
Without agreement on Tranche Two there is precisely ZERO chance of any Eurofighter exports. The failure to agree T2 is already threatening to squash the deal with Austria and will make any Singaporean order a non-starter.
Eurofighter now admits that it's touch-and-go as to whether is can meet its contractual obligations to deliver on time to Austria (May 2007). In fact, the situation is worse than that and the two sides are discussing penalty clauses and compensation for a timetable that was already unrealistic before Eurofighter's optimism on T2 was blown away.
If there is no T2 agreement then we can't even give Singapore a price, never mind an outline level of capability - and bear in mind too that Singapore is going to want EOC levels of capability that are so far away right now as to be almost invisible.
The same caveats apply to the Greek deal and everything else Eurofighter has on its books right now.
If the UK does not get its act together and sign an agreement REALLY REALLY SOON this programme is going to plunge into depths of delay and cost overruns that can hardly be imagined. There is no indication that any movement is being made on HMG's side whatsoever - Eurofighter officials say the process is out of control.
The other thing to be concerned about is that all talk of Tranche Three has now disappeared off the radar. One can say, 'well, let's get T2 in the bag first' - and that's just fine, but there is almost no real discussion, planning or even movement (particularly within the UK) to indicate that there's is any ambition for 232 jets.
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Violet
Don't know of the sources upon which you base your opinion, and I won't reveal mine. Although I share much of your concern, I don't think it's quite as bleak as you suggest. There is still much to play for, Tranche 2 is almost there, and potential customers - well aware of the issues to be faced - are not walking away. The product remains attractive, and whilst T3 is mostly a wish at this stage in anyone's eyes, that does not preclude the possibility of a Typhoon variant in years to come that will be an affordable and highly competitive acquisition worldwide. I don't know who those EF officials are that say things are out of control - but I do know of others that are less alarmist, and would prefer to talk of a future with much potential.
There is much that gives rise to a pessimistic scenario - equally, there is much to suggest the opposite view at this point. There are those that are working vigorously to that end.
The fat lady hasn't yet sung (or something like that) ----
Don't know of the sources upon which you base your opinion, and I won't reveal mine. Although I share much of your concern, I don't think it's quite as bleak as you suggest. There is still much to play for, Tranche 2 is almost there, and potential customers - well aware of the issues to be faced - are not walking away. The product remains attractive, and whilst T3 is mostly a wish at this stage in anyone's eyes, that does not preclude the possibility of a Typhoon variant in years to come that will be an affordable and highly competitive acquisition worldwide. I don't know who those EF officials are that say things are out of control - but I do know of others that are less alarmist, and would prefer to talk of a future with much potential.
There is much that gives rise to a pessimistic scenario - equally, there is much to suggest the opposite view at this point. There are those that are working vigorously to that end.
The fat lady hasn't yet sung (or something like that) ----
Last edited by jindabyne; 3rd Oct 2004 at 08:42.
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Jindabyne
What is the definition of pessimism we're working with here? For at least 12 months now, if not more, programme people have been confidently telling us that the deal is about to be done - and if you ask (almost) any of them today that's still the party line.
And I suppose (at least I fervently hope) that in the most fundamental way they are right – the deal *will* be done. That has to be a given...doesn't it?
BUT at what cost – financially, industrially, politically, militarily? The UK's singular failure to sign on the dotted line for a well-telegraphed contractual milestone that has been due since 1998 is having a devastating effect.
It is putting people out of work, it is setting back deliveries of operationally useful aircraft, it is cutting the ground from under export efforts. The RAF was supposed to declare to NATO in 2006. Ask anyone for a date now and you won't get one - but in reality we are looking at 2007, probably 2008, and that's only for a bare bones FOC standard!
An FOC standard that is still not fully defined or contracted for.
Because even once we get over the whole Tranche 2 Supplement 3 hurdle there's a still a whole new round of negotiations to come, to define what those aircraft will actually DO – as I'm sure you know. Everybody 'knows' what the baseline A2G fit for the RAF will be - but is there a contract in place to make that happen?
The answer is not yes.
So, while I'm with you on the fundamental point that the T2 contract will be signed, the question of when remains valid - and every week that goes by is hurting more and more. Yes there are plenty of people working vigorously as you say, but it all boils down to this - has the Treasury handed over the money. Indeed, has the Treasury even been *asked* to hand over the money.
No. And No.
I hate to say it but I don't believe that a deal will be done before the new year - and where will that leave us?
The Fat Lady may not be singing but she's having one last drag on her fag before the curtain goes up.
What is the definition of pessimism we're working with here? For at least 12 months now, if not more, programme people have been confidently telling us that the deal is about to be done - and if you ask (almost) any of them today that's still the party line.
And I suppose (at least I fervently hope) that in the most fundamental way they are right – the deal *will* be done. That has to be a given...doesn't it?
BUT at what cost – financially, industrially, politically, militarily? The UK's singular failure to sign on the dotted line for a well-telegraphed contractual milestone that has been due since 1998 is having a devastating effect.
It is putting people out of work, it is setting back deliveries of operationally useful aircraft, it is cutting the ground from under export efforts. The RAF was supposed to declare to NATO in 2006. Ask anyone for a date now and you won't get one - but in reality we are looking at 2007, probably 2008, and that's only for a bare bones FOC standard!
An FOC standard that is still not fully defined or contracted for.
Because even once we get over the whole Tranche 2 Supplement 3 hurdle there's a still a whole new round of negotiations to come, to define what those aircraft will actually DO – as I'm sure you know. Everybody 'knows' what the baseline A2G fit for the RAF will be - but is there a contract in place to make that happen?
The answer is not yes.
So, while I'm with you on the fundamental point that the T2 contract will be signed, the question of when remains valid - and every week that goes by is hurting more and more. Yes there are plenty of people working vigorously as you say, but it all boils down to this - has the Treasury handed over the money. Indeed, has the Treasury even been *asked* to hand over the money.
No. And No.
I hate to say it but I don't believe that a deal will be done before the new year - and where will that leave us?
The Fat Lady may not be singing but she's having one last drag on her fag before the curtain goes up.
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Violet
You're clearly close to things. I'm now much more distant, but do still share words with senior 'do-ers' that are trying to achieve. If we were to share a beer or two, we might leave the pub thinking that there's still much to play for. It's difficult, but don't despair.
You're clearly close to things. I'm now much more distant, but do still share words with senior 'do-ers' that are trying to achieve. If we were to share a beer or two, we might leave the pub thinking that there's still much to play for. It's difficult, but don't despair.
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The Americans do not seem even mildly perturbed about it being exported. This might be because few of them know anything/much about it, or perhaps other reasons.
MT
MT
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The Americans are indeed worried, look at the campaigns fought in Austria, Hungary, Poland etc for orders. Their problem is that they do not have an equivalent platform.
The JSF is primarily a mud moving platform with a light AD load, and is long way down line for delivery for any new orders. the F-22 is unexportable because of price and security and the F-15 and F-16 are getting long in the tooth. There is just so much selling you can do on avionic upgrades.
The US aircraft industry has got itself into the cleft stick of optimising itself around the needs of the USN and USAF with high tech and the problems of technical transfer. About the sole new(ish) platform they can push is the F-18E, and even that is a limited upgrade to give it the performance promised 20 years ago.
The truth is the Americans will, within just a few years, not have an exportable, effective, AD platform. The Russians will clean up the low cost market, the French the middle and Eurofighter the top. The Americans will survive on selling hand me down F-15s as the F-22 enters service....
The JSF is primarily a mud moving platform with a light AD load, and is long way down line for delivery for any new orders. the F-22 is unexportable because of price and security and the F-15 and F-16 are getting long in the tooth. There is just so much selling you can do on avionic upgrades.
The US aircraft industry has got itself into the cleft stick of optimising itself around the needs of the USN and USAF with high tech and the problems of technical transfer. About the sole new(ish) platform they can push is the F-18E, and even that is a limited upgrade to give it the performance promised 20 years ago.
The truth is the Americans will, within just a few years, not have an exportable, effective, AD platform. The Russians will clean up the low cost market, the French the middle and Eurofighter the top. The Americans will survive on selling hand me down F-15s as the F-22 enters service....
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More news items stating the signature is imminent.
Finmeccanica: ' optimistic ' on II tranche orders Eurofighter We are moderately optimistic that the thing can happen shortly '. Cosi ' the president and a.d. of Finmeccanica Guarguaglini has said: ' We are to the final phase ' of negotiatation even if there still exists a small resistance in the English Government '.
Source http://www.ilsole24ore.com/fc?cmd=ne...179&sezId=8722
Sorry about the poor translation, I used bablefish, here's the raw Italian
Quote:
Perhaps someone could do a better job... :-) thanks in anticipation.
There are stock market reports that BAE is now a good buy due to imminent contract signatures, looks like somethings moving in the right direction!!!
Cheers
Finmeccanica: ' optimistic ' on II tranche orders Eurofighter We are moderately optimistic that the thing can happen shortly '. Cosi ' the president and a.d. of Finmeccanica Guarguaglini has said: ' We are to the final phase ' of negotiatation even if there still exists a small resistance in the English Government '.
Source http://www.ilsole24ore.com/fc?cmd=ne...179&sezId=8722
Sorry about the poor translation, I used bablefish, here's the raw Italian
Quote:
Finmeccanica: 'ottimismo' su II tranche ordini Eurofighter
Radiocor - Milano, 05 ott- 'Siamo moderatamente ottimisti che la cosa possa avvenire a breve'. Cosi' il presidente e a.d. di Finmeccanica Pier Francesco Guarguaglini sulla firma dell'ordine da parte dei Governi di Gran Bretagna, Italia, Germania e Spagna per la seconda tranche del nuovo caccia Eurofighter. Guarguaglini ha detto: 'Siamo alla fase finale' del negoziato e 'tutti i Governi sono orientati a dare quest'ordine, anche se esiste ancora un piccola resistenza nel Governo inglese'..
Radiocor - Milano, 05 ott- 'Siamo moderatamente ottimisti che la cosa possa avvenire a breve'. Cosi' il presidente e a.d. di Finmeccanica Pier Francesco Guarguaglini sulla firma dell'ordine da parte dei Governi di Gran Bretagna, Italia, Germania e Spagna per la seconda tranche del nuovo caccia Eurofighter. Guarguaglini ha detto: 'Siamo alla fase finale' del negoziato e 'tutti i Governi sono orientati a dare quest'ordine, anche se esiste ancora un piccola resistenza nel Governo inglese'..
Perhaps someone could do a better job... :-) thanks in anticipation.
There are stock market reports that BAE is now a good buy due to imminent contract signatures, looks like somethings moving in the right direction!!!
Cheers
Suspicion breeds confidence
Well, judging the by the centrepage spread in the Sun today, the EF is almost starship enterprise technology. Anyone else read it?
12,000ft in 6 seconds?
12,000ft in 6 seconds?
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You're not wrong, Navaleye - he also reported that he was wearing an "anti-gravity suit".
I'm pleased to see that the former Mirror man says "Our Boys deserve nothing less" than the Typhoon. But then they also deserve tabloid journalists who don't write fabricated stories about them abusing Iraqi POWs, don't they.
"I can take the killing, I can take the slaughter, but I don't talk to Sun reporters". Well said Billy Bragg, and well done Charlie for making him sick as a dog!
I'm pleased to see that the former Mirror man says "Our Boys deserve nothing less" than the Typhoon. But then they also deserve tabloid journalists who don't write fabricated stories about them abusing Iraqi POWs, don't they.
"I can take the killing, I can take the slaughter, but I don't talk to Sun reporters". Well said Billy Bragg, and well done Charlie for making him sick as a dog!
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Our boys deserve nothing less
"I prepared for take-off by reading The Sun in the cockpit - and for a mesmerising minute even took the controls mid-air."
I think that was a quote from the Sun reporter and not Charlie (OC 17sqn)
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,5...60926,,00.html
I think that was a quote from the Sun reporter and not Charlie (OC 17sqn)
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,5...60926,,00.html
No doubt folks will take the pi$$ over some of The Sun's comments, but see this for what it is. Excellent PR which the RAF (and TypHoon) both desperately need.
It is certainly an astonishingly good jet - far better than most people can believe - and really needs some psitive andd aggressive marketing free of the bumbling beancounters in Whitehall!
It is certainly an astonishingly good jet - far better than most people can believe - and really needs some psitive andd aggressive marketing free of the bumbling beancounters in Whitehall!
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Blue Wolf
I'm afraid I'll have to take offence at your statement that "Sweden is not in Europe - Scandinavia is not part of Europe". That is, Sir, utter bolloqx from any point you may wish to view it from. Geographically, politically, historically and in a cultural sense, the Scandinavian countries are very much a part of Europe. I would reverse your statement and postulate that Canada is not part of North America; China is not part of Asia and New Zealand not a part of the Pacific. Catch the drift?
The Typhoon looks like an excellent platform, if it is given the necessary funds to see it through a proper development program. Cut the development short at the whim of short sighted politicians and you may end up with a flashy piece of worthlessness. I'll choose to be optimistic and trust that trance 3 will be delivered and live up to expectations. Whether or not it'll be exportable in significant numbers is as much a political decision as one based on performance and capability. The Russians might be able to offer less performance and capability, but at a significantly lower price. The Americans might be able to twist enough arms to flog inferior types, but wrap it in promises of continued political support. Or rather, failure to buy US might have adverse political consequences. Bribe and bully tactics, in other words.
Norway looks promising for the Typhoon. According to reports this end of the world, there are significant movers and shakers in the Royal Norwegian Air Force that have reservations about single engined fighters. Yes, they operate the F-16 but would like to have a twin, again, in the future. The competition is currently single (JSF) vs twin (Typhoon). They've got a lot of water up there and not much flat land to place runways on. Couple that with the Noggies being less than impressed with the SDD contracts coming from their Level 3 membership of the JSF developement group, and the Typhoon might yet win an order for around 40-60 copies.
My country, Denmark, is currently "blessed" with a government with their heads so far up Uncle Sam's arse even your Blair would faint at the thought. As a little "thank you", Terma of DK has won a couple of lucrative orders for the JSF. DK will almost certainly replace the F-16A/B MLU with JSF's.
The Typhoon looks like an excellent platform, if it is given the necessary funds to see it through a proper development program. Cut the development short at the whim of short sighted politicians and you may end up with a flashy piece of worthlessness. I'll choose to be optimistic and trust that trance 3 will be delivered and live up to expectations. Whether or not it'll be exportable in significant numbers is as much a political decision as one based on performance and capability. The Russians might be able to offer less performance and capability, but at a significantly lower price. The Americans might be able to twist enough arms to flog inferior types, but wrap it in promises of continued political support. Or rather, failure to buy US might have adverse political consequences. Bribe and bully tactics, in other words.
Norway looks promising for the Typhoon. According to reports this end of the world, there are significant movers and shakers in the Royal Norwegian Air Force that have reservations about single engined fighters. Yes, they operate the F-16 but would like to have a twin, again, in the future. The competition is currently single (JSF) vs twin (Typhoon). They've got a lot of water up there and not much flat land to place runways on. Couple that with the Noggies being less than impressed with the SDD contracts coming from their Level 3 membership of the JSF developement group, and the Typhoon might yet win an order for around 40-60 copies.
My country, Denmark, is currently "blessed" with a government with their heads so far up Uncle Sam's arse even your Blair would faint at the thought. As a little "thank you", Terma of DK has won a couple of lucrative orders for the JSF. DK will almost certainly replace the F-16A/B MLU with JSF's.