War and Rumours of War
 

Oil drying up, climate change? Another domesday poker game is being played here in the gulf, yet we all ignore it.

The French twice failed to notice the polished jackboot on their border. How remarkable then when last week the French Prime Minister stated: "the west should prepare for war with Iran". Very strange thing to just blurt out. What motive? Deliberate gaff? What does he know, but cannot tell???

Ponder these questions:
1. To what type of conflict does the Prime Minister refer? Land invasion, aerial dismemberment or unconventional mass destruction?

2. How long will it last?

3. Which Gulf states are likely to cop a volley of scuds?

4. Does the airline you work for have a workable plan to relocate families of staff?

5. What plans have you made for your family?


And please dont tell me it will never happen. One thing be sure of, humans just love to fight. Especially around here.

My guess is you are a bit of a computer nerd

I would stick with that rather than pontificating about this bs

Ibn Kalb
 

"Those who fail to learn history's lessons, are bound to repeat its mistakes"
.
Maybe it is you who should stay back on the computer and pontificate about BS

Doubt a war with Iran will come to pass. Everyone here has too much to lose.

According to the guys who were here during the first Gulf war, EK did f#@% all for the families. Some other companies chartered aircraft and moved all their people if I can remember right.

Guess I don't care bcos my mob never moved here - but don't tell EK that I like my villa ;)

Fearless leader - absolutely agree with you. It was just the style of the posting that I thought was astoundingly nerdy. Anyway I'm bored and easily irritated at the moment

"Black Stain" :ugh:

Obviously this post is out of place and if the middle east history and politics matter so much to you i suggest you do some more reading about it to better understand the conflict that has been troubling this region for the past thousands of years if not more.

Its always easy to repeat what other people say without taking a moment to think about things for yourself, and if you truly understand half the conflicts in this part of the world you would not be writing something like that to start with.

And IF its emergency EVAC you’re so worried about and have so many questions, pprune or any airline infact is not the place to run your questions by, I suggest you run your questions by your local embassy.

I mean come on what can the airlines do? Do you really think they should have a plan for every single possible situation? Do other major airline carriers across the world give you answers to the questions you just asked? Ah or sorry maybe because the middle east region is so :mad: up that you do need these answers. Like I’ve said to a lot of people in this part of the world before, no one is holding you by the hand and forcing you to be here, you don’t like it or think it’s such an unsafe place to be in, its easy just leave.
I feel sorry for people with this kind of attitude always trying to find the negative in every single situation.

You have no idea how this region is no one will be able to comprehend the fact that its way more complex than what it really seems like to be, there are so many outside forces and factors playing into effect with the shaping of this region.

I’ve been living in this part of the world for almost 18yrs now, and I’ve seen and heard more than most people will in a lifetime about these countries, but i wont go out repeating things i heard without understanding the situation first.

I’m not saying it’s the greatest of all places, but I could name a thousand other places that are a million times worse.

Safe flying…

I must admit I was very surprised by the French outburst but totally agree with it. What surprises me is that the French and their hangers on always disagree venimently about going into action to avoid a larger problem in the future, if nothing is done. Self interest comes to mind.

Let's face it, the French played host to the Ayatollah, that led to the down fall of the Shar.

If things do go pear shaped I don't think you lot in the sand pit will get much notice to get the hell out.

Iran
 

It is not a matter of if but when. The madmen in Washington are dead serious about attacking Iran :eek:

Guys,

If you are worrying about it then you had better get the hell out as soon as you can. You may end up in panick mode if it ever happens.

As in the previous suprises, they will not give you much warning and be prepared next to f:mad: all help

I have to agree with the croc. The US are deadly serious about taking out any potential nuclear weapon facility in Iran. If they don't attend to it, Israel will (only about 2 weeks ago Syria faced the reality of this). The new French president has aligned himself more to the US attitude on Iran but I think a large amount of what he said is to make Iran 'wake-up' to what might be on the cards. As far as the rest of the gulf is concerned, like the gulf wars of recent times it would certainly be extremely unsettling if your living in the region. Hopefully none of this will happen but it is a very real possibility in my opinion.

Desert Diner

No you won't get any help from the various embassies either, as they only think of themselves first in an emergency situation. Seen it at first hand and talk about rats off a sinking ship!

'Not on my watch' is reportedly what the current US JCS Admiral William Fallon said about another Bush inspired folly in the ME. He recently also refused the executives request to send another Carrier group into the region as it would unnessecarily escalate the situation in the Gulf.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/II14Ak02.html


I also think the GCC, which has substantial trade and cultural ties with Iran, would not be keen to allow the US to use their bases to attack Iran.
Lets hope for everybodies sake that sanity prevails, both the Iranians and the
Americans step back from the brink (a la Cuban Crisis)

"GOOD GOD" Boys and Girls
 

Maybe you should be part of the foreign policy team of your respective countries, and spare us poor pleebs here on pprune.
You all collectively know sooo! much more than the professionals that actually do the actual talking. (NOT).
Give it up for the sake of the rest of us who actually DO care!!!!
FL.

Fearless Leader, I bet you watched over and over again that scene in Borat where he is taking lessons in American humour and "learns the "naaaaaarrt" technique

Fearless Leader,

Just gone over your previous posts. Nice trolling, just enough insulting not to go overboard but enough to insult people. One question though, why so few posts, mummy restricting you computer access.

I had a good response to you, but after reading your previous posts, I figure you're not worth it.

Seems many here are a bit sensitive about their colourful history.

And if the Prime Minister is right, what will happen to the value of your gulf stocks? What about your property investment on the Pearl or the Palm? What about your career, difficult to relocate in a ruined job market?

I quoted a well informed european politician, his statement may just turn out to be the most important advice you ever ignored.

But dont worry, there will always be jobs here for date pickers and fishermen.

Black Stain

I'm assuming that either you do not live in this region or you lead a very sheltered life. Who gives a **** what some Eurpean politician says -- hey, I pay even less attention to American politicians. But the point is, most of the posters (I would say upwards of 95%) on this forum are expats. So how can they do the date picking?

One question, are you American?

I think many of you guys live in DXB, nothing to worry about over there. But some of us live just down the road from one of the biggest targets in the gulf and anything thrown that way must first fly over our villas :ooh:.
And I dont think this war, if it eventuates, will have a slow build up that even slow farmer Brown would notice. The Jews will kick it off and then it will be on. Quiet to chaos in a day, but then over in a week or two. But even quick wars tend to scare away tourists and investors.

Terry

Don't you mean "Waziristan" ?

First thing: it is not a prime minister statement, but the foreign affair one.
Second: he regreted his words and is not a war pro
Third: he's not the one who decides for such things
In addition, France doesn't have any available carrier for at least a year, and doesn't have an army able to conduct a war in other places than ex-colonies in Africa.
If you believe that Iran is exactly the way it is shown in western medias, then i'd better stop my comments, useless for you.
I'd just say that there's only one country that may have an interrest in such a war: the US. They brought logisitics in ME for more than 15 years and are stuck in Irak. The way out for such a volume is at very high costs, and the best solution would be to move the troops on the ground to some nearby country. Since KSA doesn't want them anymore, I'd say that escapes ar either in Iran or Syria... and surprisingly they are shown as very bad guys for quite a while by now (you'll see what will happen regarding elections in Lebanon...)
France never needed a war to run it's economy, not like the US... but anyway, why would people stay there if not confortable ? is it just about $$$$ ?

This thread is interesting in that we've all made a fuss about pay, lifestyle, types, routes, nightlife, uniform colour, BJs, JJs, seniority, buying houses, PCEs, corruption, embezzellment, jailings, who's doing what, who's doing when, who's doing who etc etc etc...when it could all come crashing down if/when the BIG issue of Iran and the US (and France) do confront each other. God forbid this should this take place. Because if it does, our petty issues will seem like those millions of bits of paper around the two towers after THAT event....so important one minute, irrelevant the next.

For the record I was here for kick-off during this ongoing gulf war. The build up beforehand was long and obvious. Like the Trojans knew that Agamemnon didn't cross the Agean with a thousand ships just to get back a mates wayward wife.

Rumours were abound about the airline temporarily relocating to another local hub. From management: there is no plan at all, you and your family will have to make your own plans. And so we did.

We stockpiled bottled water, beer, tinned food and rice and together with close friends we made a pack. If it turns into a can of worms we all head south into the desert to a designated campsite, light the bbq and relax with a beer until it all blows over. If anyone was out on duty at the time, others would collect his family on the way.

This plan actually settled wife and mother in law at home.

We are pilots? Contingency planning, checklists, whatever happens you always have something ready. Right? Obviously wrong...

To not invest some effort into some sort of plan for a problem that is steadily becoming real is negligence. And as someone made the point earlier, it will probably start without much warning at all. So whilst you are all telling your kids to hide under the bed, other kids are loading the beer in the truck.

Cheers.... :)



PS: sispanys ria, I dont think the french will have anything to do with it either. I think your Foreign Minister (appologies) just spoke openly about issues that most politicians would like to remain confidential.

I don't think most expats did much preparations for GW2. Some sent the wife and kids home to the in-laws. But that was about it.

GW1 was a different matter though when the scuds started comming. Most people ended up making a big party out of it. After they sent the wife and kids back home to the in-laws, that is.

I don't think anyone out here took the French words too seriously out here.

Do they want to lose again?

Don't want to get drawn into a political discussion but lets get something straight here. The war has been over for some time now.

And yes, the Americans and British won, that is why they are still there.

What is going on now is a civil war between Shia and Sunni over control of the country.

The cockup was over the exit strategy (or lack of one).

All quite correct, and it is also true that an exit strategy was not especially considered. Dubya is paying for this now.

However, if it is considered that Iran is somehow a threat, keeping in mind the propensity of 'leaders' in that area of the world to huff and puff themselves into importance, it should be clearly understood that the US will act, and rather quickly.
It won't take local 'bases' in the area either, the USA has a very long reach from within its shores directly...no local bases required.

I really do pity the Iranians if they try to be too clever.
Lets see...how long does it take to fly from North Dakota to Iran...:uhoh:

Dubya pays nothing
 

The soldiers pay with their life for Dubyas lies. And it is not up to Iran, the US will decide when to attack, and you are right, they will fly straight from the US or Diego Garcia.

How true. Saddam also tried to play it clever and see what that did to him.

Saddam was an Idiot
 

That's why he attacked the Iran and then thought he can attack Kuwait. He ran into a trap. :}

No, that was plain stupid of him in both cases. Howerver he stayed in power afterwards. What more would a dictator want?

Where he screwed up was playing an idiotic cat and mouse came with the UN weapons inspectors. If he indeed did not have any WMDs then why pretend that you do by trying to screw the inspectors around?

He provided the excuse for his own downfall.

Never forget that nuclear missiles are long time established in ME... and think Iranians might feel little bit threatened, especially these days.
How does nuclear forces use their weaponery ? Just by showing it off...
The only who used it are those who didn't say they had it... when you have it secretly, it's not for disuasion, it's to use it. That's why i'm less confortable with Israel and its actual nuclear weaponery than with the Iranian's projects.
Iranian leader is a noisy one, but it's Israel who mass murdered 1000 civilian lebanese last year, with no objections...

To have a balanced point of view, it's important to go further than the standard opinion about Iran, broadcasted for years by our medias. Iran never shot down any western airbus...while the US did...

Glad to see you have an open mind there sispanys ria:rolleyes:

Perhaps you had better talk to some Indians and Pakistanis who were at the brink of using their announced weapons a few years ago.

Well, did they used it ?

Stop asking stupid questions.

Some one is holding a gun to your head. What do you assume? Will he use it or will he not?

The real point is that they were at the brink of using them.

Are you with Air Synapsis?