Two questions:

Who will leave?

-Aussies work all over the world. They love their country, but even with their superior flying skills they can't find a job in their own country.
-Canadians? Going home to what?
-South Africans are to scared to live in their own country.
-Europeans? That marked is in free fall except for Loco. A few maybe.
-The third world guys are in DXB heaven and not going anywhere.
-That leaves the big question mark: Americans. The majors are saying come home. Salaries are on the rise, but it must be really hard to give up that WB command to go home to some right seat dinky toy.

Where will they leave to?

Home? Nah.
So it is basically China or Korean.
Korean has been there a long time, so no change.
China is not really an option if you have a family, no matter how much money they wave around.
China Southern and home base. Sounds good, and some will bite, but it will not be that many. Besides, the whole project seems a bit uncertain. Sorry Sir, you just have to do a year or so in lovely, unpolluted China first.

The Americans. Everybody is waiting for you to decide.

Mana, for many the question has already been answered and its just a matter of time waiting for the call. There are a lot of 3-4 year FOs who can plug back into the US system with nothing lost. They would have been waiting this long back home for major jobs so they got to see some of the world and have an adventure, now back to United etc. As for the Capts, the company has made it clear they are all just hired guns so I'm sure many will be looking at better paying options with better lifestyle and commuting options. As for future hiring, I doubt there will be many Yanks coming over. The reality is that none of us would be here if the US majors had been hiring over the last 3-7 years and the current package just isnt good enough to attract (or keep) pilots with other options. Lets be frank, no one really likes the Americans anyway ;)

Are Americans getting calls for interviews? I know of one, all the others I know had recall rights and got called back. Just curious.

With regard to the Yanks, interviews are in fact happening. A few have been hired and are leaving. The recalls are going out from AA and UAL. Guys are just waiting for the right time. The "horse" reckoned there were around 200 Yanks with recall rights.


The legacies are starting to dominate again in the US. Delta is reporting a 2.3 Billion profit for FY2013. Reported by CEO that lowering fuel prices are part of the reason. Hmm, yet we hear that we can't make big profits in order to get our cut of the pie because of high fuel prices......form your own opinions, which is it.


A few Ryan Air gents are or have gone back. Reason.....Rosters. Maybe not many but there is a number.


There will always be a revolving door here, but it seems there are a few more waiting in the line to enter the door....out.

Widebody,

Not at Emirates.

10% attrition would mean 350 pilots leaving (400 in a few years from now.)

If half those leaving were Captains, that would mean 525 courses (as a Captain leaving means an upgrade for an FO and a new hire to replace HIM) which is around 90% of the training departments capacity, just to handle attrition.

Yes, we'd take some DECs, but that has only ever been a slight mitigation, not a solution, and had always come with it's own problems.

No way they could afford that level of attrition.

hiring
 

How many more pilots do they need to hire during 2014??

HR , at a wash up , said 280 2014/15 planning on 3.5% attrition

Increasing after that as the first of the "New 50" A380s start to be delivered parallel to the existing order. They will be getting 3 aircraft a month (2 380s, 1 777) for a few years after that.

2016 I believe, OB.

As to what is going, 5 777s ( the "A" reg 200s and 2 300s) this year, no idea after that.

12 aircraft a year leaving for the next 5yrs. All classic 777s gone and the first ER replaced by 2018. 380 retirement starts 2020. 777 fleet to grow by 4 aircraft 2014/15, 380 to grow by 13, 330/34 to decrease by 7.

Or so the rumour goes.

The don

Don's numbers are correct, the additional 50 a380 overlap in 2017 and of the 50 ,20 are replacements for the older heavier ones. TC still saying fleet of 280 by 2020 - 120/380 and 160/777

.... and the 350 are where??

Good question Glofish.

That's my point , there is not been any mention of the 350 at all. Gone very quiet.

Allow me to make some noise then!

JUST heard the rumour that we have picked up the A350 slots that TAM Portugal canceled, meaning we will be the second customer to receive the A350 after Qatar.

Seems the cabin crew stampede to resign has begun... EK are apparently desperate enough to send recruitment emails to former cabin crew now in their home countries, some of whom did not leave on good terms.

Now why would they do that? Galley FM suggests they can't keep up without compromising the quality of service more than they already have and thus looking for experienced ones to rejoin....

:hmm:

Wiz, just to make it clear. You mean TAP Portugal or TAM Brazil?
Cheers
Happy & safe flights

gimmiewings, you would think at some point it would occur to HR that is is better to retain the crew you have, from both a cost and quality point of view, than to go out of your way to upset them.

TAP Portugal.

Typo.

Not only orators but also people with an opinion on absolutely EVERYTHING and are INCAPABLE of keeping that opinion to themselves. Look no further than the post just before yours for a prime source.