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Ebola - disturbing conversation

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Ebola - disturbing conversation

Old 9th Oct 2014, 23:31
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Ebola - disturbing conversation

Had a very troubling chat with a 1st class pax on board this week @ L1.

He was a SNR VP with a Global Bank & he said they were having frenzied crisis meetings dealing with what they see will materialize in the next six months.

Points below essentially what they are preparing for should worst case scenario develop.

- it's unstoppable due complete lack of ability to handle proliferation in West Africa.

- Only a matter of time before it gets to Saudi due pilgrims.

- once in Saudi , it will go to all GCC labor camps & eventually it will go East - the nightmare scenario

- India, Bangla, Pak. Teaming cities, no hygiene close quarters etc

- Dubai & GCC tourism collapses, along with property market & a run on the bank

- Emirates (ME4) decimated

- civil unrest, 2 years to fix, 10m die.

Don't shoot the messenger, that's what he was preparing for and he was very serious.

Not cool.

f.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 00:19
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I find that very concerning.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 00:56
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The biggest risk it poses is getting into mega-cities like Lagos.
17-21 million people (depending on whose population estimates you believe) living in very close proximity, poorly equipped health systems and lack of public education on how to contain it.
The disease itself is not really a first world threat - the economic flow-on effects may be.
The current hysteria in the US is laughable.
Ebola is it's own worst enemy - it is so lethal, and transmission via bodily fluids is not as effective as via aerosol.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 01:45
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The thing is, this outbreak seems to be doing a better job of spreading. Well in MHO. Other outbreaks have self contained...but I'm not sure this on has. Add the fact that Air France is still flying to infected areas, and therefore have the ability to drop off people with the virus into the middle of Paris, plus all those arriving on leaky boats...it could get bad
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 03:52
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This outbreak seems different to previous events, I was living in Nairobi during one of the early outbreaks. It was then difficult to become infected, but around 95% lethal.

This recent outbreak seems much easier to acquire, but about 50% lethal. Is that about accurate?
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 05:08
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Is this thread really based on a medical opinion given by a banker? Are we back to trusting bankers already? How naive.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 05:11
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What about other security risks, some mental from IS goes to africa, gets body fluids from a corpse, and realease on a the tube in london, new york etc....sounds like a movie..so did 9/11...
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 05:50
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Well the UK have started doing their bit now by interviewing pax at LHR LGW and Eurostar points (presumably St Pancras). Morocco also doing their bit by taking temperatures of pax that come in from West Africa. Will this help I ask myself?

Guess the only way to stop diseases spreading is to stop travelling.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 06:28
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If the banker is at risk financially--you BET I listen! They will be the FIRST to protect their positions and I have no doubt their risk analysis involved doctors and high level knowledge.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 06:50
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Trader I bet you read the Daily Mail and watch FOX News
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 07:34
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I suspect Trader is talking about the financial positions and risk analysis. You only need to look at IAGs share price to know that the smart money is being removed. Several other mining companies in West Africa have had share price meltdowns in the past few days, partly driven by Ebola. If it comes to that, there will be a financial market collapse, and Gold will go up (it's already been rising this past week).

Ebola has an incubation period of 21 days. People aren't exactly going to be honest in admitting they may have come into contact with an Ebola victim when arriving in Europe, no matter how many questions are asked of them.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 08:32
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vfenext---complete opposite actually! No tin foil hats here. The fact is the rich and the bankers are wealthy because they know how to make money and protect it.

You can be sure if the bankers are working to protect themselves it is based on sound evidence. FOX et el are too busy pontificating to see what may happen.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 08:54
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VFE

Below is a link to the leading story on the BBC website today. The source is the WHO.

www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29563530

This is not good.

I think the banker I talked to knew his stuff. What really concerned me was the reference to "frenzied meetings" & the worst case India factor that they believe will materialize.

He left me in no doubt that SHOULD it go that way - all our lives are going to change.

f.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 09:34
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I think the banker I talked to knew his stuff. What really concerned me was the reference to "frenzied meetings" & the worst case India factor that they believe will materialize.
What worst case India factor? Going by past experience ...SARS, MERS...none of them have affected India in any way as to cause an epidemic.

The only trouble I see is that health care workers from Philippines and India working in the ME do get exposed to such issues. However the last time I flew to both these countries i saw medical teams at the airports scanning the inbound pax. I did not see that in European airports however. (only seen some reports in the media that soon such checks will be in place)

I see more risk to Europe in the current situation especially from the French speaking colonies in West Africa.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 09:43
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The biggest risk it poses is getting into mega-cities like Lagos.
17-21 million people (depending on whose population estimates you believe) living in very close proximity, poorly equipped health systems and lack of public education on how to contain it.
The disease itself is not really a first world threat - the economic flow-on effects may be.
The current hysteria in the US is laughable.
Ebola is it's own worst enemy - it is so lethal, and transmission via bodily fluids is not as effective as via aerosol.
Tartare:

Where have you been? It's already been in Lagos and they were able to contain it with a total of 20 reported cases (8 deaths and 12 people cured including the index case of the Liberian man who brought it into Lagos). At the moment, Nigeria has no reported case of Ebola.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 10:15
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I hardly think that amount of cases constitutes it getting into Lagos in any great numbers.
I note that they're claiming they've contained it.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...eria-ebola-cdc
Good luck.
I wouldn't put too much weight on the wisdom of bankers either.
The people so smart that they fvcked the global economy.
Ebola is not the threat to the West it is being made out to be in the media hysteria we are witnessing - it's not aerosol borne.
Unless you get the blood, sweat, tears, urine or any other bodily fluids into a mucus membrane or open cut on your skin, you will not catch it.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 13:03
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It's no claim, if you doubt it you can confirm with the W.H.O.

My point is that it has gotten into Lagos and it was contained so if there is any doubt if they have the ability to contain it, I guess they have been able to prove that. The difference with Nigeria is that the citizens seem to understand how serious this is and they are cooperating with authorities and that is why it didn't get worse than this. Don't forget that what we are witnessing now with the other three countries started from just one case of Ebola.
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Old 10th Oct 2014, 14:23
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Whether or not it's contained is one thing.

But that will be irrelevant if 'eight cases' get reported in Dubai - the tourist/conference season will collapse the minute it hits the Euro newspapers. And that will affect ME pilots.

Not saying that's a rational response - but that's Joe Public for you. "Why risk it when we have other options"

f.
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Old 11th Oct 2014, 12:48
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Just flew with a guy that claimed those "Yanks" engineered Ebola as a form of biological warfare.

I asked him if he thought the moon landing was staged on a Hollywood set, of course, he said Yes!

wow

Unfortunately, We forget to complete the Chemtrail checklist.
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Old 11th Oct 2014, 13:14
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Yep, he was right, the moon landing were staged.
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