Increased EK attrition
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Formerly resident of Knoteatingham
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Well, I am about 3/4 of the way down the seniority list and my seniority has gone up by 27 places in the last 3 months. Total numbers on the seniority list have increased by 28 in the same time frame.
A little basic math would therefore suggest that for every 2 new joiners, one person ahead of them leaves. If we 'need' 400 more pilots on the seniority list this year then we may actually need to recruit 800 if this rate continues or 'only' 544 if pilot attrition numbers stay constant - see below.
Annual Attrition Rate using extrapolated figures and including retirements etc would be 27 x 4/3 (due 3/4 way down list) x 4/1 (sample size 1/4 of year) = 144 pilots pa.
Seniority numbers stop at 3765 so attrition rate = 144/3765 x 100 = 3.825% +/- std dev.
If you believe the seniority list of course.
A little basic math would therefore suggest that for every 2 new joiners, one person ahead of them leaves. If we 'need' 400 more pilots on the seniority list this year then we may actually need to recruit 800 if this rate continues or 'only' 544 if pilot attrition numbers stay constant - see below.
Annual Attrition Rate using extrapolated figures and including retirements etc would be 27 x 4/3 (due 3/4 way down list) x 4/1 (sample size 1/4 of year) = 144 pilots pa.
Seniority numbers stop at 3765 so attrition rate = 144/3765 x 100 = 3.825% +/- std dev.
If you believe the seniority list of course.
Join Date: May 2008
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Maths
Having a look at the Seniority List, I've found few 'ghost pilots' that are no longer with us, and they are still listed.
Also, the Cadets have the original DOJ and Staff Number that they were given when they started their course, so when they finish their training and join Senioity List they are not easy to spot, because they don't appear at the bottom but at the middle of the pack.
I'm at the bottom of the SL and sometimes I see my number increasing in 2 or three spots, and I suppose that may be the reason why.
5 cadets joined my fleet on January. They are in the top half seniority for FO's in the fleet.
So, if we just do the maths without taking 'ghost pilots' and Cadets into account, we may get a lower attrition % than the one we really have.
For example, Bananas. You think that you went up 27 places, but in fact it was a minimum of 32 because of those 5 cadets. Those 5 are easy to spot in a shrinking fleet, but how many joined in the other fleets, and the other two months? Maybe you should have moved up 40 places... and thats a lot.
With 27 in 3 months, it will be 108 places a year. But 32=128, and 40=160....
In my case, I went up 80 places in 9 months. That's 107 places a year. But, how many 'ghost pilots' left and how many cadets joined in that period?
Also, the Cadets have the original DOJ and Staff Number that they were given when they started their course, so when they finish their training and join Senioity List they are not easy to spot, because they don't appear at the bottom but at the middle of the pack.
I'm at the bottom of the SL and sometimes I see my number increasing in 2 or three spots, and I suppose that may be the reason why.
5 cadets joined my fleet on January. They are in the top half seniority for FO's in the fleet.
So, if we just do the maths without taking 'ghost pilots' and Cadets into account, we may get a lower attrition % than the one we really have.
For example, Bananas. You think that you went up 27 places, but in fact it was a minimum of 32 because of those 5 cadets. Those 5 are easy to spot in a shrinking fleet, but how many joined in the other fleets, and the other two months? Maybe you should have moved up 40 places... and thats a lot.
With 27 in 3 months, it will be 108 places a year. But 32=128, and 40=160....
In my case, I went up 80 places in 9 months. That's 107 places a year. But, how many 'ghost pilots' left and how many cadets joined in that period?
Last edited by delorean79; 3rd Feb 2015 at 13:26.
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If I remember correctly, yes cadets get staffno and joining date from when they started PPL training, but they get a number on the seniority list based on when they start the transition course onto fleet.
Join Date: Apr 2004
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Sounds about right, last and only time I checked since July'14 till last week last guy moved up about 160. Thats in 6 months. And people also talk about ghost pilots in the list.
TI74
TI74
