Realistic EK upgrades delay ?
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I am here for over 10 years and EK was always taking DEC's, the last 5 years they hired lots of them and the entire world new about it, also the upgrade time can't always be 3 years, its just math.
if you joined less than 5 years ago, no reason to complain, there was enough material on this site.
sorry for not telling you what you want to hear.
if you joined less than 5 years ago, no reason to complain, there was enough material on this site.
sorry for not telling you what you want to hear.
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5+, 2300 pilots now, 100-150 new this year(apr10) and at most 400 / year , dont think its poss to train any more than that. Who really knows what and how the planes are coming beyond 2010. Also you will now see cadets coming up to command training on a small but steady pace , so even 5+ might be 6-7.
Not to mention the DEC thing.
Not to mention the DEC thing.
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When we started they told us it would be more likely to be moved from 3years to 4+. This is still quite fast compared to other airlines. I think most of us plan to stay 7 years anyway, so this should give you at least 2 years of command on widebody. Should be enough to find you another job anywhere you like!!! 
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Predicting when commands will come through will be impossible at the moment.
Factors which will affect a new joiners time to command will include:-
Rate of new aircraft arrival (no delays for the next 2 years, but thereafter, who knows?)
Possible disposal of older aircraft?
Average productivity of existing pilots (the 92 hour targets will not help)
New routes and schedule changes (as in increasing utilisation of the planes, but that is already very high)
the recruitment of DECs and the correct implementation of the FOM regarding upgrading
Rate of prople leaving
All the above would be easy to quantify in an economically stable environment, but we are not in a stable environment.
I predict, with absolutely no logical thoughts in the process, that commands will be slow for the next 18-24 months. Thereafter, the world economy will be improving,so more jobs will be available in our home countries, and captains with good time will be likely to move on. Commands will then increase quite substantially, as EK becomes less attractive as an employer to DECs, and there is an excess of F/Os within the company who meet the minimum requirements for command.
I also expect within the next 3 years that the T and C, which are taking a serious knock right now as immature (as in inexperienced) management respond to the current downturn with ill-concieved and badly though out knee-jerk type changes in policy, will show a dramatic improvement as the company finds it difficult to recruit pilots who recall how little regard was given to employee "rights" during the downturn. At that time, expect a 25-40% pay increase, and a general decrease the level in the smelly bucket!
Factors which will affect a new joiners time to command will include:-
Rate of new aircraft arrival (no delays for the next 2 years, but thereafter, who knows?)
Possible disposal of older aircraft?
Average productivity of existing pilots (the 92 hour targets will not help)
New routes and schedule changes (as in increasing utilisation of the planes, but that is already very high)
the recruitment of DECs and the correct implementation of the FOM regarding upgrading
Rate of prople leaving
All the above would be easy to quantify in an economically stable environment, but we are not in a stable environment.
I predict, with absolutely no logical thoughts in the process, that commands will be slow for the next 18-24 months. Thereafter, the world economy will be improving,so more jobs will be available in our home countries, and captains with good time will be likely to move on. Commands will then increase quite substantially, as EK becomes less attractive as an employer to DECs, and there is an excess of F/Os within the company who meet the minimum requirements for command.
I also expect within the next 3 years that the T and C, which are taking a serious knock right now as immature (as in inexperienced) management respond to the current downturn with ill-concieved and badly though out knee-jerk type changes in policy, will show a dramatic improvement as the company finds it difficult to recruit pilots who recall how little regard was given to employee "rights" during the downturn. At that time, expect a 25-40% pay increase, and a general decrease the level in the smelly bucket!
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I think 5 years plus is realistic.....however, this needs to be placed into context. We are currently in a climate where, I believe, many airlines are laying off pilots.....and downgrading captains to F/O. Given this, the fact that EK is still doing 50 - 100 upgrades a years is a positive thing.
Bottom line is that EK is still a good prospect for quicker upgrades than most other carriers....DEC or no DEC
Bottom line is that EK is still a good prospect for quicker upgrades than most other carriers....DEC or no DEC
Last edited by EGGW; 7th May 2009 at 17:26. Reason: Irrelevant bit trimmed
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Upgrade?
Consider the following:
1. Cost of upgrading an in-house F/O (extra training event and hiring replacement F/O) versus cost of hiring a DEC;
2. Monthly salary of a year 4/5/6/7 F/O becoming CA at year 4/5/6/7 pay, versus DEC earning CA year 1;
3. Ready supply of FlyDubai CA's, already trained per EK standards and flying under EK Rules at our alter ego carrier, providing an abundant source of DEC's (already in-country) willing to be paid year 1 wages....
4. EK's accountants are no doubt well aware of all of the above....
Any estimates on upgrade time now?
1. Cost of upgrading an in-house F/O (extra training event and hiring replacement F/O) versus cost of hiring a DEC;
2. Monthly salary of a year 4/5/6/7 F/O becoming CA at year 4/5/6/7 pay, versus DEC earning CA year 1;
3. Ready supply of FlyDubai CA's, already trained per EK standards and flying under EK Rules at our alter ego carrier, providing an abundant source of DEC's (already in-country) willing to be paid year 1 wages....
4. EK's accountants are no doubt well aware of all of the above....
Any estimates on upgrade time now?
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Dear ANFA, I have to say that you have no idea what you are talking about. Flydubai pilots are not trained under EK sop's. we have our on standards, sop's and rules which are quite different from EK. NO need to worry about any Flydubai pilot jumping to EK.
Honestly, you should do a little of homework before you post anything.
Good luck to all,
Honestly, you should do a little of homework before you post anything.
Good luck to all,
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For those of you thinking the capts will go back to their home countries when the economies pick up, you may be waiting a while as it does not get any better outside of the expat bubble we live in. Just talk to the many ex-EK drivers that have gone to Oz to fly the B777, A330 and A320. I have spoken to a few of them and their advice is STAY PUT!!! To go home and take a substantial pay cut (tax, mortgage, elec, water, schooling etc) might sound do-able but the reality is a stark contrast. EK working conditions might not be great (its the same at other expat airlines) but it is definitely better than heading home. At the end of the day, we are in DXB to get ahead financially, gain experience, hopefully have a reasonable lifestyle with our family and friends and set our sights towards retirement. Sorry if my opinion offends some but after 10 plus years here, the grass is not always greener. Good luck.
Early Upgrade at EK?
Well these things are relative but consider this:
1/ One year ago when things were superficially good, Airbus F/Os were upgrading at about four and a half years.
2/ It's taken Emirates 22 years to get from zero to 120+ aircraft.
3/ If Emirates takes one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years someone joining now will upgrade in 10 years. Do the math(s).
4/ To spike item #3 there will be retirements and 'resignations' (in the true sense and in the new sense).
5/ But there will also be DECs. And there will be retirements of the older aircraft, many now hitting 10 and some 13 years old.
6/ How likely is it that EK will take one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years? Read item #3 again.
1/ One year ago when things were superficially good, Airbus F/Os were upgrading at about four and a half years.
2/ It's taken Emirates 22 years to get from zero to 120+ aircraft.
3/ If Emirates takes one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years someone joining now will upgrade in 10 years. Do the math(s).
4/ To spike item #3 there will be retirements and 'resignations' (in the true sense and in the new sense).
5/ But there will also be DECs. And there will be retirements of the older aircraft, many now hitting 10 and some 13 years old.
6/ How likely is it that EK will take one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years? Read item #3 again.
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Inconvenient Truth?
As WK pointed correctly pointed out, there are no FD Captains currently at the ready, but in a couple of years, there will be a steady cue. This will dovetail nicely with the 6/7 year seniority EK FO's waiting patiently for command.
Spanishfly, go check your regs, we all fly per GCAA rules and you guys have been vetted and signed off by EK's HR department. IF there's a difference between our SOP's, it is without distinction, and no bar to coming across from a B738 to fly a B773. After all, they're both "heavy" jets, and the precedent for this type of DEC has already been set.
This also saves on the selection process because FD Captains have already jumped through all the HR hoops. You can just have them catch a taxi across town to come and sign their contract!
Sorry if this bothers folks, but really, it's all about the bottom line, and this will save EK loads of money.
Seniority in all its forms (Provident fund matching, retirement medical or travel) is costly for an airline, and the lower the bar can be set, the better the profit.
If a dummy pilot has thought of this, you can bet your bottom Dirham the company has.
This stuff needs airing on the Prune so prospective joiners can truly get a feel for what they have in store. When the supply of willing patsies dwindles, things will improve for all of us already here pulling this wagon.
ANFA, OUT!
Spanishfly, go check your regs, we all fly per GCAA rules and you guys have been vetted and signed off by EK's HR department. IF there's a difference between our SOP's, it is without distinction, and no bar to coming across from a B738 to fly a B773. After all, they're both "heavy" jets, and the precedent for this type of DEC has already been set.
This also saves on the selection process because FD Captains have already jumped through all the HR hoops. You can just have them catch a taxi across town to come and sign their contract!
Sorry if this bothers folks, but really, it's all about the bottom line, and this will save EK loads of money.
Seniority in all its forms (Provident fund matching, retirement medical or travel) is costly for an airline, and the lower the bar can be set, the better the profit.
If a dummy pilot has thought of this, you can bet your bottom Dirham the company has.
This stuff needs airing on the Prune so prospective joiners can truly get a feel for what they have in store. When the supply of willing patsies dwindles, things will improve for all of us already here pulling this wagon.
ANFA, OUT!
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I don't think there will be a great hemorrage from FD to EK. As EK lets even 777 qualified pilots do a almost full course (because evidently only they know how to correctly operate), it does not save any cost, compared to a DEC. And the FD transition guy would need to be replaced, costing another course.
I believe that guys joining the lowfat-EK will be stuck there, as has been seen in other parts of the world with the junior/regional partners, much to the displeasure of their pilots.
For FOs within EK it is unfortunately some kind of gamble. If the business picks up in the not too distant future, it might be that the upgrade dawns at around 5 years. If however the upswing takes a little longer, it will be another story. Many cadets will by then have the hours, inclusive the new joiners, because emiratisation will not stop. These guys will be given a upgrade irrespective of hours, experience and operational success.Their departure will also need replacement on the FO side, and this can be achieved by leaving the expat FOs right where they are. For a eventual small time lag DECs will be cheap and available .....
Let's just hope EK does not defer the intake of heavy metal too much ....
I believe that guys joining the lowfat-EK will be stuck there, as has been seen in other parts of the world with the junior/regional partners, much to the displeasure of their pilots.
For FOs within EK it is unfortunately some kind of gamble. If the business picks up in the not too distant future, it might be that the upgrade dawns at around 5 years. If however the upswing takes a little longer, it will be another story. Many cadets will by then have the hours, inclusive the new joiners, because emiratisation will not stop. These guys will be given a upgrade irrespective of hours, experience and operational success.Their departure will also need replacement on the FO side, and this can be achieved by leaving the expat FOs right where they are. For a eventual small time lag DECs will be cheap and available .....
Let's just hope EK does not defer the intake of heavy metal too much ....
For fast growing airlines a simple formula applies. Time to upgrade for new joiners is approximately the same time duration that the airline takes to double in size.
Look at the seniority list for 2005. Joiners from that year are the most recent upgrades and they have seniority numbers of around 50% of the most recent joiners, confirming that Ek has close to doubled in size since 2005.
So for a future new joiner to upgrade to Captain, Emirates would need to double in size from the present 120+ aircraft to 240+ aircraft. To allow for an upgrade in five years Emirates would have to take delivery of two additional new aircraft each and every month for the next five years. (2x12x5=120). Is that likely to happen?
Realistic estimate? Try 12 or more years for new joiners.
Apply a sliding scale for those already in Emirates.
Look at the seniority list for 2005. Joiners from that year are the most recent upgrades and they have seniority numbers of around 50% of the most recent joiners, confirming that Ek has close to doubled in size since 2005.
So for a future new joiner to upgrade to Captain, Emirates would need to double in size from the present 120+ aircraft to 240+ aircraft. To allow for an upgrade in five years Emirates would have to take delivery of two additional new aircraft each and every month for the next five years. (2x12x5=120). Is that likely to happen?
Realistic estimate? Try 12 or more years for new joiners.
Apply a sliding scale for those already in Emirates.
Last edited by whossorrynow; 7th May 2009 at 17:16.
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The only other factor in the equation is retirement. EK have a relatively young pilot body and compulsory retirement age has been increased to 65.
On the other hand, the sh*t bucket generally fills up long before then...
On the other hand, the sh*t bucket generally fills up long before then...
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The upgrade math is a little off.
Dont forget all the UAE cadets have a mandatory sentence in the right seat. Minimum eight years I believe (someone in the know please shed some light)
So technically you could work backwards through the list and come up with a reasonable guess for "Senior First Officer" upgrade time which would not exactly relate to numbers alone - The downside is (if you are of the frame of mind that in the worst case scenario there could be furloughs) - that the cadets have seniority numbers ahead of you eventhough they are not yet on line. Its a valid point as I spoke to a guy who siad he had 300 guys behind him on the pure list but when it came to the six digit empl# - not so
As a side note I believe the Emiratisation of the pilots ranks is the long term goal of senior mgt and the govt. It will take some time but eventually it is inevitable.
The DEC situation is unfortunate but many of us joined knowing this policy was in effect. the rub would be if the ratio of DEC to new-hires increased significantly compared to the past years. In light of the presumably slower upgrade time - if this was to happen I suspect the DEC to FO relationship (here-to-fore relatively healthy) would deteriorate,
I agree with previous poster - if things improve significantly down the rd - so will our T & C's...but it may be too late...a lot of damage done in the past four months.
f.
Dont forget all the UAE cadets have a mandatory sentence in the right seat. Minimum eight years I believe (someone in the know please shed some light)
So technically you could work backwards through the list and come up with a reasonable guess for "Senior First Officer" upgrade time which would not exactly relate to numbers alone - The downside is (if you are of the frame of mind that in the worst case scenario there could be furloughs) - that the cadets have seniority numbers ahead of you eventhough they are not yet on line. Its a valid point as I spoke to a guy who siad he had 300 guys behind him on the pure list but when it came to the six digit empl# - not so
As a side note I believe the Emiratisation of the pilots ranks is the long term goal of senior mgt and the govt. It will take some time but eventually it is inevitable.
The DEC situation is unfortunate but many of us joined knowing this policy was in effect. the rub would be if the ratio of DEC to new-hires increased significantly compared to the past years. In light of the presumably slower upgrade time - if this was to happen I suspect the DEC to FO relationship (here-to-fore relatively healthy) would deteriorate,
I agree with previous poster - if things improve significantly down the rd - so will our T & C's...but it may be too late...a lot of damage done in the past four months.
f.
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FD Pilots as DEC in EK
Will never happen. Wishful thinking of some FD prospects who dont understnad ME airlines...
Simply too expensive! Moreover FD pilots are not on EK seniority list as mentioned above.
Good luck anyway
Simply too expensive! Moreover FD pilots are not on EK seniority list as mentioned above.
Good luck anyway
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ANFA what you say could have some credibility, but how about this scenario...
FD pick up all the crap night turns that EK does thus freeing up 330 and 772 crews/aircraft to do other things, including operating all the new 777s that you covert so much. No need to retrain to EK procedures or have the hassle of HR transfer, COS etc. Sounds more realistic to me.
Thanks for joining FD and making this all possible.
FD pick up all the crap night turns that EK does thus freeing up 330 and 772 crews/aircraft to do other things, including operating all the new 777s that you covert so much. No need to retrain to EK procedures or have the hassle of HR transfer, COS etc. Sounds more realistic to me.
Thanks for joining FD and making this all possible.