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Inflation Inflation! EK what to expect?

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Inflation Inflation! EK what to expect?

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Old 5th Mar 2008, 12:10
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Wiley

Yes it is. Estimated by independent newpapers at 37% at the moment.

Any official figures you get are for the year gone by - not the year we are in. This is how we truly fall behind on pay increases. They are largely tempered by the government figure for the preceding year. Hence EK and others will be looking at the 11% to benchmark against.

However this figure is now history as the number was worked over 2007. What will be completely ignored will be the large price hikes we enjoyed in January when many companies took the change of calender year as the place to revalue stocks and ramp up prices to cater for their own increases.

So, we have experienced the 40% increase year to date, but salaries will rise to cater for the official, and now outdated, figures of the 2007 year.

This cycle is why we are where we are now; with salaries well behind what they used to be. The cycle was not particularly noticeable with the 3%, 4%, 5% figures of at the beginning of the decade but the cumulative effect and double digit inflation of today brings it sharply into focus.

With inflation destined to only go up, many will now fully understand the meaning of Inflation Spiral.

Hard lessons ahead.............
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Old 5th Mar 2008, 16:59
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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I have recently finished my interview and subsequently spent a few days with my wife in Dubai. The last time I was there was 2002 and there have been monumental changes.

I was keen on the prospect of working for a reputable airline but fear that the image of EK has been tarnished since I travelled there 6 years ago for a holiday, the appearance this time in comparison to 2002, was an outfit expanding at a phenomenal rate without attention to the detail that it was once renowned for.

Just before I came down I did some figures based on the pilot briefing document in particular that of pay and education.

The current pay for FO 20840 AED which equates to at the current exchange rates; US 5674 / STG 2869 / Euro 3727 / AUS 6112 . This is not very good, but alas tax free, the big issue is obviously the tie to the USD.

I don’t know what the pay was when I was there in 2002, but using the current FO pay of 20840 AED and the 2002 exchange rates this is what we get; US 5674 / STG 3994 / Euro 6529 / AUS 10898 . Of course the pay back in 2002 was probably less but was it 8245 AED less? Can anyone give the figures on the FO pay in 2002 as I’d like to update this here to see where it stands in relative terms? The EPR is as ambiguous as the word approximately.

The productivity pay is not concise, “AED for each block hour above approximately 78 hours per month.” It’s all very ambiguous which is something I don’t like, its no use saying, “well I thought I had approximately enough room to pass the other aircraft’s tailplane, but obviously I didn’t and now I’ve sliced off the other aircraft’s rudder with my winglet, which you’ll find approximately underneath their rear fuselage...”

The Educational Support allowance is named very well, it is Support. Whilst I have friends in other industries there, the package for education by EK is poor in comparison. I looked at the “list of Schools” document and noted that this document was issued on 21/3/07. I re-checked the tuition fees from the schools to find an alarmist rise in the fees. Example, registration at Jebel Ali PS is now 2000 Dhs, the company document states 1000 Dhs (that’s not a typo error but a 1000 Dhs rise in registration in 1 year), the current fees vary but are all in excess of the schools document, Jumeirah PS tuition fees for Gr 5 are 34800 Dhs but the company document states 30000 Dhs, this is a 16 % increase in one year! The company contribute AED 16000 then 90% of the balance up to AED32000. This 10% payment is increasing significantly every year, taking another hit on my potential income.

Medical and dental provisions for my family have increased and will be paid for by… me, based on the rate of inflation; I’m loosing more money every month to ensure my family has access to proper medical care in this country.

We had a meal at the same restaurant this year as I did 6 years ago and was not surprised to be paying more in real terms but I was taken aback at the cost of the meal, unbelievable inflation, it was hard to compare elsewhere but everything seemed so much more. It was a real draw card in 2002 the cheaper cost of living, a reputable operation but circumstances have changed just as rapidly as the inflation rate.

Emirates obviously have an exceptionally low cost base, it also has the ability to use its unique position to absorb any worldwide economic set backs and still grow successfully. But its growth appears to be at the behest of its staff, whom I’m sure are becoming disillusioned with the dream as their remuneration package diminishes whilst the desert envelops them. If I am fortunate enough to be accepted, I will decline the offer. I would cherish the opportunity but not if I am going to have to pay for it, which I could now see me doing in about two years time.

In the meantime, if they are short of operating staff due to the attraction of the present remuneration package, in order to keep the train on the tracks standards might inevitably become lowered. One shortcut too many will end the dream for EK and a few of my mates working there; we live in a world where the press can focus the world’s attention on any incident/accident with a frightening result on passenger bookings. It’s a balancing act the management appear to be willing to play, good luck but I will stay put where I am.
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Old 5th Mar 2008, 19:22
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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Dollar down again and everything else up. (Except salaries)

What inflation to expect in the UAE? Um - Let me think....

HUGE INFLATION!
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Old 5th Mar 2008, 20:33
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Think yourselves lucky your not in Saudi like us. At least you can have a beer when you're on a downer !
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Old 6th Mar 2008, 20:35
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Decision Time

Read the following threads:
Nice Paycut Today: http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=315850
Buyer Beware: http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=316212

Its all set out there.

Basic points:
Salaries: They have continually decreased in the currencies you mention.
ERP: It will not made up the difference and in fact will decline to nothing. (Its not relative to a fixed mark, but relative to a Rolling Average so washes out with time) Besides it only protects half your salary to an absolute max of 7.5%.
Education: You will pay 10% or more if fees are higher than the limit set.
Inflation is 11% officially. A lot more realistically.
FO Salary: Around 18000 in 2002, I think.
Cost of Living: Dubai is ranked 34 on the list of most expensive cities for expats. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...iate_employees I suspect it has moved up a lot since this list.

There it is. Do your research and think carefully. Salaries are decreasing and inflation rising rapidly. Be careful!
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Old 7th Mar 2008, 10:02
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Well indeed to any european considering coming beware!!!! Make your own maths. FO salary now stands at 4100 euro ( includes FDP by the way). Captain now at 6100 euro. That is close to 800 resp. 1000 euros less than 1 year ago. F.....

Yes I know EK are not to blame for the flushing of the dollar but they certainly have to come up with an answer. I give them 6 months, else
I' m outta here. It's just not worth it any more...
Btw forget the ERP system. The effects of it are marginal.

Oh yes : Maybe I can put zeee wifeee to work. She'll get 750 euro per month over here if she's lucky....

Oh man. I need a beer.
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Old 7th Mar 2008, 10:18
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Its all part of the grand plan to de-westernise Emirates ,a good reputation for the airline has been built up my many, allowing EK to fly to almost any destination.
Now its time to remove the westerners and replace them with cheap 3rd worlders who wont bitch and moan or try to form a union.
let the profits soare. If you think being loyal is the way to go look out.
CX is still the best job........
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Old 7th Mar 2008, 10:43
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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The USD and corresponding Dirham demise is not the fault of Emirates of course. The main is issue is how they handle it and the next pay review will be a lot more about their ethos and attitude to employees that the money itself.

If they raise salaries by 20% or over then they will have made a reasonable effort to re-adjust remuneration to a level that reflects the reality of inflationary pressures and shows appropriate care for the employees, their quality and loyalty.

Any less would be frankly an insult. In effect acknowledging that they are paying less, they don't particularly care, and they are confident they can replace any leavers. Quality and loyalty not a major issue. We become more of aviation's wh*res, and not the team leading "managers" they profess we should aspire to

Utilities Allowance will be further revealing. At least 30% would be required to bring things more in line with what rentals and DEWA actually costs. An average family of 3 could not rent at much less than 200K with overheads, at best.

I doubt they are considering anywhere near this which would mean they frankly couldn't care if pilots have to move on. They will replace them. They are probably the more senior ones, so the replacement is cheaper anyway.

How they put the increase together will also be telling. My guess is 3% on basic and 100% on flying pay to make a total increase in a range of 9% to 17% depending on how much the basic is. I think after the review there will be much discontent with the more senior pilots. Their increase will be below inflationary levels but what are they going to do? Leave? It they do - good. It will save a mint.

Management will get around the same increases. Trick here is they don't have a flying pay component so all the other bits like PF, PS, ERP, Ins all go up accordingly. Effectively a greater package increase, and a greater portion of future Profit Share.

All the more reason to squeeze the pilots in the future!

We are actually the ones to blame here. Standards in the aircraft and profession are set by pilots, no-one else. Every pilot out there was put there by another pilot.....
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Old 7th Mar 2008, 11:58
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Recent statement from TC doesn't exactly hold the promise of any significant pay rises!!!

"We'll have to raise fares and strip costs to compensate," Tim Clark told Dow Jones in an interview. He did not elaborate which fares the airline might raise and by how much.

Clark said that fuel now accounts for 30 per cent of Emirates' costs, up from about 14 per cent in 2004. Clark also said the airline is considering cost savings of "at least $100 million in the coming financial year and higher ticket prices".
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Old 7th Mar 2008, 13:40
  #110 (permalink)  
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disconnected says:
Any less (than 20%) would be frankly an insult
I think it would be pretty safe to say you can stand by with absolute certainty for an insult.
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 06:43
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed 410. Unlikely to get that much.

The important thing to remember therefore, is that after this year's increase be worse off than this time last year. So after 2 rises still firmly behind the curve.

At that point one must ask if this makes economic sense. There will be different circumstances for everyone here.

Also different for anyone about to join but they should appreciate that economically their circumstances will degrade after entry rather than improve which is the general reason one take's a job in the first place.

Another factor is that as we know the management monitor this site perhaps we should not set our expectations too low. After all, if all we expect is a marginal rise and seem to have resigned ourselves to it, they have advance notice that it is accepted.
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 09:44
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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Just as we all start talking about how much the pay rise will be TC announces that we need to make $100 million in cost savings!! but on the other hand EK will announce a profit in excess of $1 Billion.
A 20% pay rise will be nowhere near the cost of living increase but i agree with the last two posts that it will be nothing even close to this figure.
The resignations this year have been low and i think the mismanagers have become complacent about this, time will tell to see if this continues over the next few months.
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 10:00
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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The worst is yet to come. Our pay rise will be minimal and of course it will not in reality be as much as the company touts it to be. I don't know how they will attempt to conceal their deception this year, since they have already used the following:

Pay stops at chocks on.
No pay for sims.
No more grd trng days, do it on your own time, thank you very much.
Pay based on scheduled block times and not what really happens.
Poor Per Diems.
Flight pay scam.
35 days Reserve every 9 months, against the will of the pilot group.
30 days Leave guaranteed versus the 42 contractual days.
No pay for Leave, basically you just get a guaranteed series of off days.
An ever increasing amount of accomodation issues.
Consistent schedule manipulation to the detriment of pay as well as days off.
Below acceptable standards for FTL's plus pairings that are ridiculous or simply not crewed properly.
No response to the massive devaluation of the Dirham wrt to other currencies.

I have to admit they are clever in the short term but it will bite them in the arse soon enough. I am worried hearing from so many FO's about their plans to depart Dubai at the first opportunity This does not bode well for EK in my opinion.

And now the claim that we don't need the 500+ pilots this year?? Are they predicting that their recent roster manipulations will get that much more work out of us? Goodness I hope not.

I say this with all sincerity and knowing full well that it might adversely affect my working conditions in the future........... ''If you are living in a decent country or working for a decent airline, then do your homework carefully before making a decision.'' I have no agenda other than to tell people considering making a huge career and family decision, the facts about EK. Obviously some will choose to believe this is the place to be, I hope it works out. You are most welcome here.

The past attractions of having a reasonable schedule, living in a good place, being appreciated for a job well done, making some extra cash through property investments, making decent money....... are gone.

We all have only 3 options after coming to EK, which every single pilot I know has considered.
1. Stay indefinitely and put up with the continual decline of your T&C's.
2. Become an expat elsewhere by joining as a DEC.
3. Go back home and start all over at the bottom of some seniority list.

Last edited by mensaboy; 8th Mar 2008 at 12:19.
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 12:18
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Mensa, you forgot another option, close to No.1 though:

- work considering how EK values you and your job.
I think that is how a lot of us work today - we don't give a rodents back side about punctuality, fuel, customers, tire or brake wear, if you friends choose to fly EK or not, etc. etc.
We just do our job to the minimum of what is expected, press 2 if we feel tired, don't pick up the phone on days off, and keep on informing very accurately the lads back home about our T&Cs to help their decision making, keep out CVs updated ....

It doesn't show right away, but many of us have been working with other outfits where suddenly arrogance prevailed and TC, believe us, it hits each and every mismanager sooner or later. And it really and eternally hurt each and every one right in his weakest spot: His overboosted EGO.
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 13:05
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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This issue has shelved my plans for applying at EK. I'd rather shop my G550 rating around.

Sorry I doubted you, Ironbutt57!

Cheers and good luck all!

TC
(No relation to the "other" TC... )
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 13:08
  #116 (permalink)  


 
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For those of us considering joining the party, can you answer a couple of questions;

1. It has been posted that the annual bonus(or what ever it is called), would be announced on or about the end of Feb. Has it been announced, and how much was it?

2. There is much talk of an annual raise. Over the past couple of years, when was that announced, and how much was it?

3. What is the bottom line on the 42 days of vacation? I know that it has been discussed extensively about it being reduced to 30 days. It has also been discussed that the excess days would be deferred to next year. What is the final outcome of this?

I have been following the changes in the company, or what is posted on this forum, pretty close. I am still up in the air about making a move from an OK job at a regional. Trying to sift through the BS to the truth is tough sometimes. Any further info would be greatly appreciated.

Guns
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 13:34
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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For those of us considering joining the party, can you answer a couple of questions;

1. It has been posted that the annual bonus(or what ever it is called), would be announced on or about the end of Feb. Has it been announced, and how much was it?

2. There is much talk of an annual raise. Over the past couple of years, when was that announced, and how much was it?

3. What is the bottom line on the 42 days of vacation? I know that it has been discussed extensively about it being reduced to 30 days. It has also been discussed that the excess days would be deferred to next year. What is the final outcome of this?

I have been following the changes in the company, or what is posted on this forum, pretty close. I am still up in the air about making a move from an OK job at a regional. Trying to sift through the BS to the truth is tough sometimes. Any further info would be greatly appreciated.

Guns
1.This years will be announced with the years financial results, usually in April. Your guess is as good as mine habib. With the ever declining $/dirham its worth less this year anyhow, if we get the same as last year.

2. It was a complex load of bollox last year, 6% on basic, whic included 3% annual anyhow. Then if you work up to the overtime limit, you could get the percentage up to 19%. However, as many others have said, with rampant inflation, makes littel difference anyhow.

3. You are contracted to 42 days a year, its in your contract. However, the company only guarantee 30 days Most have been getting their 42 days, but not all. I think only 12 unused days can be transferred to next year, you lose anymore.

Your choice Habibi, many are going to leave after the bonus is paid. Many have had enough, don't be fooled by the gloss and BS.

SyB
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 14:24
  #118 (permalink)  


 
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thanks for the info. It greatly helps.


Guns
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 15:55
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Asian labour is being deterred from coming to the UAE

http://in.reuters.com/article/topNew...32364520080308

There will be no un pegging of the Dirham. The Americans and the IMF cannot let that happen or the Dollar will collapse.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayA...ction=business

Gulf Inflation is on a Roll. It will get worse. EUR to 1.60 Oil to $120?

http://www.gulf-news.com/business/Economy/10195624.html

Why would anyone risk coming here until this nightmare scenario plays out beats me.
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Old 8th Mar 2008, 16:59
  #120 (permalink)  


 
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Let me rephrase what I said, and attempt to say what I mean.

There is always a greener pasture. That being said, when I started flying I always thought that whoever was flying whatever that was bigger had a better life. Flying bigger equiptment, those with the bigger guns, or those that went across the pond had a better life. I still believe this is somewhat true. I have a descent life in the states. I make a descent wage, and get treated descent. The people who would sell their soul to the devil, for my job, I would be quick to point out the downside to it all. This is what I mean by sifting through the BS.

Lets say that I move to Dubai, and progress along normally. In 7-10 years I am sure that both of my "buckets" would be nearly full. I would probably have much to say on the negative side. The upside is the obvious, bigger equiptment, more money, and getting to financial independance qucker. The downside is also obvious.

There is much info to research in this forum. Getting the full picture is of the upmost important for those of us trying to decide should we make the leap. Yes, it is a leap of faith somewhat, but so was going to a regional @ 40 and qualifying for food stamps.

Thanks to all for the info.

Guns
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