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Dubai Property Market about to head south?

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Old 30th Apr 2006, 21:50
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Dubai Property Market about to head south?

I know this is not an investment forum but seeing as a lot of EK pilots have considerable investment and commitment tied up here perhaps this is an appropriate place to raise the issue. After all we should look after our own.

I reinforce that I'm not a financial guru but some facts now stand out. They are:
The local stock market has been badly dented in consequtive falls. Typically this preceeds a downturn in the property market as there is less liquidity. Less money = less buyers. Housing markets often follow some months later.

The US dollar is declining. Massive debt and money printing the main culprits. After all when the US asks China to revalue its currency upward, is it not in essence pleading for the USD to devalued? They hope softly.
In the UAE your house value is measured in the USD. On a 2.5M property, its value has dropped about 185000 Dhs since December. Currency markets are tricky but a gentle slide on the dollar is the consensus.

US interest rates have risen. They seem to be stopping but can they in the long term? One has to service the mortgage - Can you at 10-15%. Sure their are more competitive mortgages etc but you are at the mercy of the Fed and I'd like to see anyone take on a bank, even a western one, in Dubai. There's too much local money tied up to rock those boats. You will take what you are served.

Gold and more recently Silver tell their own story. There is a general flight to these safe havens as people seek to lock in their wealth in troubling times hence the massive increases in those commodities. And of course there is oil. Not much further to go to full scale recession.

Some recent event show that the your property may not really be under the control you thought you had. The highway through one major development and the response that followed is one example. Rental controls is another - they seldom achieve anything in the long run except a flight from property. So much for the free market. Other horror stories abound. Take a look at yesterday's letters in 7 Days: Couple buy a tenanted property and give tenant notice at the end of the lease period. Tenant decides not to move. Court rules tenant can stay, rental increase capped to 5% and couple pay mortgage and have to rent another property at exhorbitant rates. No chance for appeal - so much for the "dream home". This is becoming a more common occurance with landlords unable to take back properties at the end of a lease - even for their own living. Bottom line - You are an expat, you have no rights, and no protection. Who knows what we will see in the next year, but I can almost promise surprises like massive hikes on fees, rates and new "taxes". And maybe the odd highway.

And then there is the shadow of oversupply. Take a look around, one hiccup in the economy and who will live in all those properties? What roads will they travel on? What will your property be worth?

I could go on about the effects of saber rattling at Iran, lack of building quality control, land ownership issues etc etc. but these are well known.

Everything about Dubai property screams "Bubble". The same sentiment is being placed on much better properties around the world that really do have a view and are built to tight specification.

I got into the market and am largely out. I did ok. Maybe I could have made more, sure, but going right to the top is a risky business in any investment. I know many properties were not essentially investment. They were homes bought for stability and a semblance of normal life as an expat. But think about it, particularly if you are planning to leave. You don't want to depart with a property that once was worth a lot more. How many EK rosters does that represent?
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Old 30th Apr 2006, 22:35
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disconnected, completely agree with your analysis.

On top of that, even if an expat working in Dubai expects a correction or a 'dip' in the housing market, the good deals are for people who can buy a 'cheaper' place because of low US$. Since we are paid in Dirhams, which essentially are US$, the prices stay up for us in local currency, so no good deals with our pay, which is going backwards compared to the rest of the no-US$-world.
Personally, I try to convert as much as I can in euros and gold every month, and keep my assets in US$ to a minimum. The long awaited dollar crisis is near...

MR8

PS: I can't wait for the announced gulf currency which will be uncoupled from the US$.
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Old 3rd May 2006, 10:32
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Had a very interesting conversation with a Local a few months ago. He expects the bubble to burst - by 2008, at the latest!
Property market is largely overvalued, construction quality of buildings mostly rather poor, maintenance quality even worse.

I made a nice cut with two of the local investment funds over the past 6 years but am getting out now.

Parking some savings elsewhere (BRIC-Funds, Gold, Energy, Natural Resources, and in the Euro-Region and Australia) might not be a bad idea, as profits there have been safely between 45% and 80% over the past 12 months....

Where's my crystal ball again?????

Cheers! :-)
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Old 3rd May 2006, 13:50
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Disconnected

I have a friend who earnt his living up until last year as a hedge fund manager in the city of London. He read the entry by disconnected and says he's on the money. This is relevant because every one of my friends predictions to date, including the rapid fall in the local market, have been spot on. He saved an Iranian contact here a lot of money by telling him to pull his money two weeks before the local market fell.

He is keeping the villa he has on one of the palms and an apartment, despite the inevitable approaching correction, because he bought in at the very start from London and does not expect the properties to actually go negative on him.

However he would not advise anybody to invest in this market now, particularly apartments. He has been told by a contact in the financial world based here that the Germans are still flying into Dubai but are then flying further East to invest their money.
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Old 3rd May 2006, 22:45
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sdcycles.......hmmmmnn...

Lets see, your financial guru friend is not selling his "villa" at Palm due to:

a. Nobody wants to buy it

b. It will not be ready for occupancy for another 3 years

c. The re-sale transfer fee to the developer has not been paid for the last time it was re-sold...

d. There is no "villa"

e. Nbody wants to buy it...


and.....properties will not go negative on him? yeah, why not sell them later for a 50% profit when today he could cash in 200% profit!! sounds like great startegy!!

sign me up for that hedge fund, quick!!!
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Old 4th May 2006, 07:45
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Dear David

Davidletterman….. Hmmmm….
Sign you up for his hedge fund? That’s rich. No, really I’m impressed. At my friends last paid gig your minimum in would be ten million USD. With leverage he would then be playing you as his smallest client with 40 million USD. The leveraged money would belong to obscure banks like Honkers and Shankers etc. Now that minimum investment has dropped to about one million but my friend is currently retired whilst he figures out what to do with his family and life next. You must be on velly good dollah to buy into a hedge fund David! My friend is back in UK just now but I’ll PM you the necessary contacts ASAP. I thought your overtime went cost neutral. Oh well.

In fact you can now as a private investor get in on a fund of hedge funds with as little as 10 thousand USD. Might be worth looking at and I’m going to be with advice from my ‘Guru.’ I feel very lucky and privileged to have met him and can count him as a close personal friend.

My friend booked a half million GBP villa off plan from Savilles in London at launch a few years ago believing the hype and spin they had at the time. About 100,000 Brit’s have bought second homes here. Now he has spent some time on the ground here, and there is a 15 year construction plan for the crescent, he can’t wait to offload the thing. Plus he’s heard of all the stories as mentioned elsewhere of building quality etc,etc. Sadly, as you say and completely correct, no villa and little demand equals only 15% premium. He is absolutely certain the crash will come before this villa is finished but he is working on the premise that at key handover he will obtain a higher return than he would get if he sells, redirects the cash plus the 15%, minus transfer costs, into other areas of his portfolio of investments. No 50% now, or 200% later I am afraid.

Post divorce my finances are in a mess and he’s had a look to see what I can do to get myself ship shape. The review of the EK provident fund in particular was very depressing and I know this is off thread so I’ll be brief. He described it is a ‘widows and orphans’ fund. When I asked why the performance was so bad though, ( I’m 20k USD down even now), he said because no one gives a ****. It’s a zero risk setup in A plus B little better than, if not, an index tracker. The C fund is useful because of low switch fees but it is still unfocused as compared to his own personal investments which can be placeded directly, say, at China or India. For property later this year we are going on Safari into emerging Europe. It’s not really my place to defend my friend or say precisely what property he has apart from a non villa and non apartment in DXB, but suffice to say he’s got multiple properties in London ( Central London that is), Spain and Ex Eastern Europe.

Now Mr David, I know I made an incorrect assumption about the QR pay, TOC, and I apologise for that. I only post if I think I can contribute in such a way as to help people who are about to turn their whole lives up side down, spending money, changing schools etc, whilst being subject to a cat and mouse game run by a group of people using the business tactics of hunters, fisherman and farmers on both Western technology and the professionals needed to run it for them. So cut me some slack and for God’s sake get some more irony and wit in your posts like the show please.
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Old 4th May 2006, 08:27
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HEDGE-HOG FUNDS

Hey sdcycles,

Can you PM me with any info/contacts re-junior investors in hedge funds.
Cheers.
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Old 4th May 2006, 14:17
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Hi Syd,

I am with you man, you are right.... must have been that quintuple bypass slowing the bloodflow to my brain.... or too long nere getting too much sand between my neurons...i will ask my Rabi for spiritual advice, ha ha ha ha
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Old 4th May 2006, 15:00
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Davidletterman

Thanks, and I think we've all been here too long!
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Old 4th May 2006, 15:02
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Fund of funds

Oh yeah, and I've sent PM Vagabond47
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Old 4th May 2006, 17:12
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hey disconnected,

just wanna add my little knowledge to the discussion.

The fear of a bubble burst in Dubai is as old as the property marked itself. When I bought 14 month ago, people were telling me that it's a bubble and going to burst. I knew at least 10 colleagues ( not EK ) that wanted to buy but not willing to pay the 20-30% increase. Now my property went up 60%, within the 14 month, not original...

The burst of a property marked is never as strong as a burst on a stock exchange and indicaded by leveling prices...

You probably know that the prices of properties in England tripled over the last 5 years. The same can be observed in Spain ( 30% p.a. ) and in other sunproof countries. In the U.K. they broadcast a TV show called "A place in the sun'' following people on their quest to buy a place, yes, you guessed it, in the sun. The U.A.E. is not alone...

Last but not least it depends why you bought property in the first place. Not to pay rent, rent it out or a quick buck. Since I don't have any other option to work for right now I might end up staying for a while, thus continue living in my own place rather than paying rent.
If you bought to resell for a good profit, yes, you made it by now, so why not sell it? It all depends for how long you buy a place for...

So, I like my place and I'm not gonna sell it. All I'm going to miss is a chance to make good money now and getting poor paying rent thereafter.

In a few years we all know more.....

Cheers.
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Old 4th May 2006, 18:55
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Investment in the UAE property market, Dubai in particular, is just a short lived commodity at the moment because of the present policies.
These policies will have to change if they are to succeeed with so much availability around. Obviously, the local authorities and estate agencies under their control won't say it. Just drive around South and East Dubai and see the immense area of built property... Where are the people for all that even considering all the well publicised projects for the next decade?
There is also a very young and inexperience estate agency and property management community around to make things a little bit worse. You hire cheap you'll get less than desired results in the medium/long run. I'm sure many in the estate agency/property management property business will disagree, but that's what it is. Also, the Land Law isn't what it must be yet.
Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah, Doha, Bahrain, Oman, well everyone in fact, is copying each other... Certainly, Oman has been more cautious, and it seems their projects are targetting higher revenue earners and tourism. Well, they have a naturally beautiful country while the other have little to show for.
For a country like the UAE, it has to strengthen the local workforce giving foreigners (home buyers) equal rights just like other countries elsewhere and stop considering them as Guests and at the same time target the uppper market where rich individuals will buy exclusive properties and enjoy them during the 5 months weather is quite pleasant.
No, I won't buy...
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Old 4th May 2006, 19:36
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Not to copywright Gulf News articles but this printed as below. Would just like to ask why the locals in the know are getting their money out of the market here if the deals are so good. Just a thought, yet another all time low on the Stock market reported today, you cant tell me that the panic selling on the stock market wont be a repeat on the mortar market when the panic selling starts. They are the same investors trying to make a quick buck, when the rollercoaster gets to the top, man does it go down real fast the other side and no one knows how far down the ride will be. Good luck if you are currently up on the value, many were in the recent IPO stock markets, the investors here all have the same panic BUY SELL approach. [url]

Published: 05/04/2006 12:00 AM (UAE)
Mideast puts Dh46b in UK commercial realty
By Saifur Rahman, Business News Editor

Dubai: Middle Eastern investors have invested more than Dh45.8 billion ($12.5 billion) in the UK's commercial property sector, according to a latest report.
This is more than the entire portfolio of FTSE-100 property giant Hammerson worth £5.7 billion (Dh38.55 billion).
According to DTZ, the international property consultants, Middle Eastern investors spent a record £1.3 billion on UK commercial property in 2005, nearly twice the £721 million they invested in 2004.
"The UK market has been the bigger beneficiary of Middle Eastern capital following September 11," Nick Edmondes, Partner of Trowers & Hamlins, told Gulf News yesterday.
A Middle East consortium is poised to spend £540 million on one of London's most prominent buildings this week.
The group is expected to obtain preferred status to buy Shell-Mex House on The Strand, an office block owned by a consortium of brothers Robert and Vincent Tchenguiz, Jack Dellal and brothers Vincent and Simon Reuben.
However, despite the outflow of cash, the UAE's property market is not showing any sign of negative impact. SO WHY ARENT THEY INVESTING IN THEIR OWN MARKET?
In terms of investment, the UAE witnessed announcements for investment worth Dh212 billion in a week.
"The current growth in investment in the real estate is also driven by Islamic banks, who are increasingly investing in the UK's stable market," Edmondes said.
"Although Europeans are the largest investors in the UK's property market, the Middle East is becoming stronger these days and we expect this to go up considerably this year and the coming years as the Gulf economies are still booming, backed by high oil prices.
"There are very low political risks,AS COMPARED TO WHERE>HERE? the market is liquid and UK commercial property can be easily structured into Sharia-compliant investments," Edmondes said.
"The high oil price means there is already far too much money pursuing investment opportunities in the Middle East. Middle Eastern investors are looking at opportunities in other Islamic countries like Turkey and Malaysia, but that isn't going to be at the expense of the safe havens like the UK.
"Just as Middle Eastern funds are buying UK commercial property, Gulf-based high net worth individuals are snapping up central London residential property," Edmondes said.
Investment from the Middle East has risen from 4 per cent of the total foreign investment in UK commercial property in 2004 to 11 per cent in 2005, and now totals £1.3 billion, the DTZ research shows.
Experts believe the recent political resistance in the United States to the Dubai-based DB Ports bid for P&O may also push more Middle Eastern money towards the UK.
"Clearly there are psychological barriers in some parts of the world about Arab states owning strategic assets, which may benefit the London property market," said Alastair Hughes, European chief executive of Jones Lang LaSalle, the global property advisers.
"Just as Middle Eastern investors were beginning to reinvest in the US, sentiment took another hit with the row over the Dubai Ports World acquisition of P&O and its six US ports. In the UK the deal hardly caused a ripple," said Edmondes said.

Last edited by critical winge; 4th May 2006 at 20:27.
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Old 5th May 2006, 09:55
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You probably know that the prices of properties in England tripled over the last 5 years
Well perhaps in some areas, but the UK "average" price has only doubled during this time. Going even further back, it's just about trebled since 1988.

Now if only someone could let me have the information about which areas will be "hot" for the next 5 years!!!
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