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1% risk assessment

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Old 18th Oct 2005, 11:18
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1% risk assessment

Hi,
i was just wondering if anyone out there has been for a heart check up through the CAA and have been told they need to have a less than 1% chance or less of your condition deteriating over time.

I have to go to The Royal Brompton and have an ECG and Echo etc, and was just wondering if anyone has done this or know's how they work out less than 1%.

Many thanks
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Old 18th Oct 2005, 12:58
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I'm wondering if they are talking about the "Framingham risk score," an algorithm designed to assess your risk of suffering a "cardiac event" over the next 10 yrs.

It takes into account your age, cholesterol, hdl, diabetic status, blood pressure,ecg/echo findings and family history

It's used in general practice a lot, to help us decide whether or not we need to take preventative measures (eg. cholesterol lowering drugs.)

Its used only on healthy individual's, its a bit crude, and of course it doesn't tell you whether or not you're the one who one who will be the one to suffer the event.

It is crude, but its probably better than clinical judgement alone.



What prompted the CAA's action ? Do you have a raised cholesterol/bp ? Do you have any symptoms ?
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Old 18th Oct 2005, 13:13
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Hi,
Thanks for the advice, could be that, they have only said i have to do at least an ECG and an Echo, nothing else specific.

I had a heart Operation back in 1974, had no problems since, have an FAA Class 1 and fly commercially here in the UK. So this seems to be the last chance for a JAR medical.

Thanks again
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Old 18th Oct 2005, 14:01
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doesn't sound like there is much to worry about, keep us informed.

Last edited by got caught; 18th Oct 2005 at 14:24.
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Old 25th Oct 2005, 16:43
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ITFC1

Think you may be talking about the '1% rule'. This was developed by the CAA in the 1980s, and says that a pilot must have a 1% or less chance of medical incapacitation in the next twelve months to hold a medical. It applies to any medical condition and is not just cardiac related. There are apparently algorithms for major conditions on the CAA website which may help further. Good luck.
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Old 5th Dec 2005, 12:29
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I have been for my medical at last and was passed fit by the heart surgeon, although he said i have to have a heart valve replacement operation in a few years.

Does anyone know what the CAA view on this would be?

Thanks again

Graham
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Old 8th Dec 2005, 10:48
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Thanks for your advice guys, i just got my letter from the Professor saying i have a LESS than 1% risk.

Now for the next big hurdle, converting my FAA ATP to a Jaa one.

Thanks for all your help.

Graham
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