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ORAC 15th May 2021 10:16

I’ll also point out that a lot of arrivals were, and perhaps still are, able to dodge quarantine by transferring flights in non-red list countries (some are actually offering quarantine. “holidays” including a few nights 5 star hotels at below the cost charged for quarantine in the UK. Turkey at first but also, as mentioned Bahrain, Saudi and doubtless others). And if not isolated they could, of course, be infecting others at the same hotels before they continue their journey onwards.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/worl...rkey-1.1218009

Using Dublin and then catching a ferry has long been a way of doing so, and Ireland only switched from requiring arrivals from India to self-isolate and provide a passenger locator form (including for those travelling onto NI) to using Hotel quarantine on 4th May, twelve days after the UK.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le34457144.ece

https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles...d-list-country

So whilst the front door was locked, the back door was open. And in the modern world you can’t stop it arriving eventually France has identified 24 clusters and cases are reported to most other European nations. The numbers are low - but they haven’t the genomic network that the UK has and haven’t been looking for it ass intensely - so far.

dead_pan 15th May 2021 10:51

What would be the economic cost of insisting everyone who wants to travel to the UK to quarantine on arrival (and if hotel space is limited then tough luck) versus that of yet another lockdown? A year+ in and we're still not on top of this - madness!

Spanish eyes 15th May 2021 11:35

This is a case of Deja Vu. We watched China and did nothing until it was too late and now itís the same with India. This government has always been reactive and never proactive.

Dannyboy39 15th May 2021 12:00

Not to defend this government at all - but what can they do?

There will always be variants coming from all over the world. If we did this for every single variant, we will never reopen. It is unrealistic to expect the whole global population to have been vaccinated before the end of next year.

Every "sovereign" country will have their own rules and requirements. Unless everyone did everything the same, at the same time, we wouldn't have this problem. But that would clearly never happen.

highflyer40 16th May 2021 05:15

The poster child for how to handle the pandemic in the start, namely South East Asia is just starting to have a rough time.

https://time.com/6046172/southeast-asia-covid/

Itís just going to take on mutation that is resistant to the vaccines and we will all be right back weíre we started.

All these countries with low vaccination rates, but essentially some vaccinated are in my opinion going to be our downfall. America springs to mind here with such a large anti vaccine mindset. The virus able to spread at will but vitally able to also interact with the vaccine is a pure breeding ground for mutations to occur to bypass the effects.

ORAC 16th May 2021 06:23

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...potent-strain-

India study shows 97.4% of those vaccinated were protectedfrom infection

Does the Indian variant of Sars-CoV-2, B1.617.2, have the capacity to escape vaccines? Is it really more transmissible than the Kent variant, and by how much? Those are the urgent questions which government scientific advisers are going to have to try to answer over the next week or two – and the answers will have profound consequences for life in Britain over the next few months….

We don’t have much data to answer the above questions at present, but one piece of evidence which will be taken into account is an observational study of 3,235 healthcare workers based at the Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi. The group, all of whom had been vaccinated with the Covishield vaccine – as the AstraZeneca vaccine is branded in India – were subsequently tested for Covid 19. Of the 3,235, 85 were found to have the infection, 65 of whom had been fully-vaccinated and 20 of whom had had one jab.

The study, reported in the Hindustan Times, observed that the hospitalisation rate was just 0.06 per cent – which means that just two of the workers can have suffered a serious enough illness as to require hospital treatment. There were no ICU admissions or deaths in the group.

The study is of limited value in calculating the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the B1.617.2 strain. It is an observational study, with no control group of unvaccinated people to compare against the vaccinated group. It has not been peer-reviewed and it is not clear how many of those who had been infected were infected with the B1.617.2 strain as opposed to other variants of the virus. There is, however, other data* from India suggesting that B1.617.2 strain has overwhelmed all others - making up the majority of infections by mid-April .

Nevertheless, if B1.617.2 really were evading the AstraZeneca vaccine to an extent which threatened a huge third wave of infections in Britain it is hard to imagine that it wouldn’t have shown up in the Delhi study. The study’s finding appears to match early observations from Bolton, Blackburn and other ‘hotspots’ which have seen a large increase in overall infections over the past week, blamed on a surge in B1.617.2 cases. So far, there has been no increase in hospitalisations in those places…..

*

Dannyboy39 16th May 2021 07:08

What is super frustrating is that seemingly the majority of not all of the people in Bolton who have gone into hospital, have been eligible for the vaccine and not bothered to receive it.

I still really donít understand the reasons for vaccine hesitancy - someone please educate me.

At the same time, everyone else cannot keep their lives on hold because of this % of people. I fear that these hesitant communities will now be targeted with far right bile.

It is quite curious to see the actions of the US CDC recently in comparison to other countries like the U.K. In the EU also, Italy has just dropped its self isolation requirements for travellers if you have a negative test. Same virus - different rules? Different science?

ATNotts 16th May 2021 07:34


Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 (Post 11045429)
What is super frustrating is that seemingly the majority of not all of the people in Bolton who have gone into hospital, have been eligible for the vaccine and not bothered to receive it.

I still really donít understand the reasons for vaccine hesitancy - someone please educate me.

At the same time, everyone else cannot keep their lives on hold because of this % of people. I fear that these hesitant communities will now be targeted with far right bile.

It is quite curious to see the actions of the US CDC recently in comparison to other countries like the U.K. In the EU also, Italy has just dropped its self isolation requirements for travellers if you have a negative test. Same virus - different rules? Different science?

It defies any sort of logic, and the only realistic conclusion that can be drawn is that they are simply thick, or stupid, or both.

It is possible blame could be attached to religious leaders, and of course the the wonderful tool we all use, the internet, which can be and is used by people who want to peddle lies and disinformation for their own twisted reasons. Though I know many people would be against it, I would like to see vaccine passports issued which would be required to be shown to enter areas where people gather in large numbers indoors. However I can see that people who are not yet eligible for vaccination might be (rightly) peeved. If there were a mechanism that permitted that group free access to venues until such time as they have been offered and taken their first vaccine shot that may make a domestic passport system more palatable, but it would probably take far too long to develop and roll out.

There definitely needs to be some sanction for those selfish people who refuse vaccination for non-medical reasons.

davidjohnson6 16th May 2021 07:49

Far more will be achieved by gentle persuasion than coercing people into forcible administration of a drug. Making it voluntary will get many of the doubters to eventually volunteer. Compulsion will scare the doubters into refusal. If trusted family, friends and neighbours have the jab and say it was fine, this will be a big persuading factor - far more than a hectoring bureaucrat

Despite all the "this is outrageous" refusals to have a vaccine, takeup amongst the over 40s has been remarkably high. Seeing long queues in Bolton yesterday on the news awaiting a jab further encourages me

At some point, it will be possible to publish data showing how hospitalisations for Covid are biased heavily towards those who have not had the jab

Those aged under 38 are still not yet eligible for a jab but more than capable of being carriers. We should save the complaining about those who did not volunteer for a jab until all potential carriers over 18 have had the chance to be jabbed.

In a free society, some people have to learn the hard way - while tobacco is legal you need some people to die of lung cancer so that people understand why smoking is bad. Same goes for Covid and vaccines

Dannyboy39 16th May 2021 08:10


Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 (Post 11045460)
We should save the complaining about those who did not volunteer for a jab until all potential carriers over 18 have had the chance to be jabbed

I don't think anyone is doing this. I am complaining at those people over 50 who have been eligible for a long time now an not bothered themselves to go and get it.
I back freedom of choice and sanctioning people for not getting it is not the right approach, but at the same time, the rest of the country cannot be prevented from getting on with their lives.

treadigraph 16th May 2021 08:30


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 11045444)
It defies any sort of logic, and the only realistic conclusion that can be drawn is that they are simply thick, or stupid, or both.

A friend of a friend who is white and educated is refusing to have it for reasons I know not wot of, despite the fact her brother died with Covid. She is married to a Muslim but I know the local Imams (and other faith leaders) have been busy trying to cajole the reluctant ones into getting themselves immunised.

There seems to be a lot of anti-vaccination messaging on social media (I've seen some on Nextdoor which I managed to get removed) and my theory is anti-capitalist ****ers are busy trying to provoke an economy collapse by scaring useful idiots into not having it and who in turn pass on the message... Whatever the reason, the people behind it should be treated to a very long period languishing at Her Majesty's Pleasure. So long in fact that they see two separate Coronations...

Dannyboy39 16th May 2021 08:35


Originally Posted by treadigraph (Post 11045479)
A friend of a friend who is white and educated is refusing to have it for reasons I know not wot of..

I have a close relative (White British) who is worth over £1m who is refusing to get the vaccine because it "hasn't been tested enough" despite being a heavy smoker, heavy drinker, a gambler and overweight.

Your guess is as good as mine.

highflyer40 16th May 2021 08:39


Originally Posted by treadigraph (Post 11045479)
A friend of a friend who is white and educated is refusing to have it for reasons I know not wot of, despite the fact her brother died with Covid. She is married to a Muslim but I know the local Imams (and other faith leaders) have been busy trying to cajole the reluctant ones into getting themselves immunised.

There seems to be a lot of anti-vaccination messaging on social media (I've seen some on Nextdoor which I managed to get removed) and my theory is anti-capitalist ****ers are busy trying to provoke an economy collapse by scaring useful idiots into not having it and who in turn pass on the message... Whatever the reason, the people behind it should be treated to a very long period languishing at Her Majesty's Pleasure. So long in fact that they see two separate Coronations...

So you would be all for banging someone up just because they donít hold your views? Their views may be wrong, but they are entitled to them.

slowjet 16th May 2021 09:12

Been away a while but very disappointing to see the same old hamsterwheel. Those with opposing views to those held so dear, here, are described as "thick or stupid or both".

Those who have voiced concern, offered a "trending" view or even offering very good reason not to accept the "offer" of the jab have had posts removed, served temporary bans on in a case sadly known to me, personally, had membership withdrawn for having "demented" views on Covid.


Well said, indeed HIghflyer . And Dannyboy, I agree with your out of condition , wealthy friend. It has not been tested enough, remains in phase 3 and debate over "certified" and "approved" terminology remains rife.

I don't smoke, drink moderately, very fit, BMI good enough for my AME to smile with envy and BP reading that led him to drop his stethoscope and comment " NASA are looking for this level of fitness" and yet, my very high IQ has me, still, looking very carefully at all evidence and developing views.

Of course, according to some, that plops me into the 'thick, stupid, demented' box too.. Of course. Very disappointing .

treadigraph 16th May 2021 09:18

Yup. It's not their views, it's their actions which I believe to be criminal.


highflyer40 16th May 2021 09:32


Originally Posted by slowjet (Post 11045504)
Been away a while but very disappointing to see the same old hamsterwheel. Those with opposing views to those held so dear, here, are described as "thick or stupid or both".

Those who have voiced concern, offered a "trending" view or even offering very good reason not to accept the "offer" of the jab have had posts removed, served temporary bans on in a case sadly known to me, personally, had membership withdrawn for having "demented" views on Covid.


Well said, indeed HIghflyer . And Dannyboy, I agree with your out of condition , wealthy friend. It has not been tested enough, remains in phase 3 and debate over "certified" and "approved" terminology remains rife.

I don't smoke, drink moderately, very fit, BMI good enough for my AME to smile with envy and BP reading that led him to drop his stethoscope and comment " NASA are looking for this level of fitness" and yet, my very high IQ has me, still, looking very carefully at all evidence and developing views.

Of course, according to some, that plops me into the 'thick, stupid, demented' box too.. Of course. Very disappointing .

Donít lump me in with your views though please. I disagree there, but I just believe you have a right to express them.

highflyer40 16th May 2021 09:37


Originally Posted by treadigraph (Post 11045511)
Yup. It's not their views, it's their actions which I believe to be criminal.

So what ďactionsĒ have they undertaken that are illegal? Or are you meaning their inaction at not taking up the vaccine? Mandatory medical treatment will never be the law. You may have restrictions on what you can do or places you can go, but I donít know any western nation that requires legally citizens get medical treatment against their will.

Dannyboy39 16th May 2021 09:38

Whereas my view is that he hasn't been gone long enough. You may be as fit as a butcher's dog, but doesn't mean you cannot spread it and infect someone more vulnerable to yourself.

ATNotts 16th May 2021 09:59


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11045524)
So what ďactionsĒ have they undertaken that are illegal? Or are you meaning their inaction at not taking up the vaccine? Mandatory medical treatment will never be the law. You may have restrictions on what you can do or places you can go, but I donít know any western nation that requires legally citizens get medical treatment against their will.

You cannot force a vaccine or any medical treatment on anyone, however restricting what someone can and can't do, as has been done with smoking bans is quite legitimate.

treadigraph 16th May 2021 10:03


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11045524)
So what ďactionsĒ have they undertaken that are illegal? Or are you meaning their inaction at not taking up the vaccine? Mandatory medical treatment will never be the law. You may have restrictions on what you can do or places you can go, but I donít know any western nation that requires legally citizens get medical treatment against their will.

Perhaps if you reread my original post, you will understand whose actions I consider criminal.


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