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-   -   Coronavirus: The Thread (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/629061-coronavirus-thread.html)

KelvinD 2nd Mar 2020 17:35

And just to add misery to the mix, it was pointed out on Radio 4 this morning how the gig economy could seriously compromise containment or treatment efforts. Many hospital workers, particularly those in low paid/menial jobs could conceivably spread infections by turning up for work when possibly infected themselves. If these people feel unwell, they may still report for work as a period of sick leave will result in an automatic loss of 3 days pay. After 3 days they will be entitled to statutory sick pay. The loss of 3 days pay to someone earning minimum wage is a massive financial blow to them so, when faced with the choice of going to work, feeling a bit unwell, versus the loss of virtually half a week's pay, it is easy to see which way that decision will probably go.

Joejosh999 2nd Mar 2020 17:37

Interestingly WHO ran a simulation last year of CVid, tracing to see would it become pandemic, how many might die and so on.
65 million dead. At 2% mortality that’s roughly 3.25 billion who’ll be infected.
A bit less than half the population of Earth.
20% require hospitalization, which we do not have capacity/beds for.
....in fact we don’t have capacity to manage the number of dead.

Looks to be pretty significant.

Twitter 2nd Mar 2020 17:37

One for the Statisticians
 
French people are deemed to be five times less likely to catch the virus, than their Swiss neighbours...

This can be deduced from the maximum permitted gathering rule: In France 5,000 and in Switzerland 1,000.

Will be intersecting to see how other countries fare in this respect.

Peter H 2nd Mar 2020 18:25


Originally Posted by Twitter (Post 10700793)
Official advice is to phone (not go to) your doctor if you have the symptoms.

Have you got a url for that?

This NHS page seems to says call 111 (except Scotland)
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital. Call 111 if you need to speak to someone.
Scotland: call your GP surgery or call 111 if your surgery is not open
Wales: call 111
Northern Ireland: call 111


SASless 2nd Mar 2020 18:59


I shall continue to read The Lancet, BMJ, New England Journal of Medicine and the Journal of the American Medical Association rather than Breitbart when it comes to matters to do with this virus.
What do you do when you see contradictions and conflicting views and data in those lofty periodicals?

Please do not tell me they are all publishing the same data and same conclusions as there is far too much that is NOT known about this virus and its spread thus there is a lot of guessing going on....educated guessing...but still guessing!

Odd as it might sound to you but there are Doctors and others that mingle with the average among us and who will offer what professional knowledge they have on the issues.


Auxtank 2nd Mar 2020 19:07


Originally Posted by Peter H (Post 10700851)
Have you got a url for that?

This NHS page seems to says call 111 (except Scotland)
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital. Call 111 if you need to speak to someone.
Scotland: call your GP surgery or call 111 if your surgery is not open
Wales: call 111
Northern Ireland: call 111


Having the Coronavirus lapping at our shores is not an excuse for us all to start behaving like a bunch of imbiciles.

A little common sense perhaps...
Your local surgery will have a website, go to it, and ask for a Doctor Callback.

In my day job these days I occasionally deal with emergency situations - they're characterised by the fact that the first thing that gets luzzed out the window is logical reasoning.
Are we pilots or not? Logical reasoning is one of the last things we should relinquish in an emergency as it's currency to buy our way out of the situation in which we find ourselves.



ORAC 2nd Mar 2020 19:24

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-new-york-case

Coronavirus: six dead in Washington state as new cases reported across US

ORAC 2nd Mar 2020 19:27

London's Guildhall drama school closed due to coronavirus

The principal of the Guildhall School of Music and Drama in London emailed staff and students shortly after 5pm today to say it would be closed for up to 14 days after a teacher was diagnosed with the virus. The email said:

We regret to inform you that a member of teaching staff has tested positive for Coronavirus. He is currently recovering well at the Royal Free hospital. He was present and teaching in one of the ancillary school buildings on one day last week. He came into contact with a limited number of students and we are working closely with those students to ensure that they receive urgent appropriate advice.

As a precautionary measure, the school will be closed for up to 14 days from today (Monday 2 March), to allow time for a review of the situation and for appropriate measures to be taken.....

stagger 2nd Mar 2020 19:53


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 10700874)
What do you do when you see contradictions and conflicting views and data in those lofty periodicals?

Please do not tell me they are all publishing the same data and same conclusions as there is far too much that is NOT known about this virus and its spread thus there is a lot of guessing going on....educated guessing...but still guessing!

Odd as it might sound to you but there are Doctors and others that mingle with the average among us and who will offer what professional knowledge they have on the issues.

These papers report hard data, not guesses - i.e. data on what happened to thousands of people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19. And all the empirical papers in these journals reporting the outcome of large numbers of cases have said pretty much the same thing - that case fatality rate is much higher than seasonal flu. There is no disagreement on that. They just vary in their estimates of how much worse than seasonal flu it is.

ORAC posted a good summary of the scientific evidence above. It's worth reading.

I'm a scientist myself - although not in this area. As soon as I read the early journal articles in late January it was obvious to me this virus had the potential to spread rapidly around the world and cause a very large number of deaths.

wiggy 2nd Mar 2020 20:16

Thanks for the considered thoughts folks....If we are still allowed a bit of levity may I say I think I’m fast coming around to a plan which involves:

"Go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint and wait for all this to blow over..."


Torquetalk 2nd Mar 2020 20:27


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10700925)
Thanks for the considered thoughts folks....If we are still allowed a bit of levity may I say I think Iím fast coming around to a plan which involves:

"Go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint and wait for all this to blow over..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpCe36t6oC4

👍

You wouldnít have to go far to hole up!

Twitter 2nd Mar 2020 20:27


Originally Posted by Peter H (Post 10700851)
Have you got a url for that?

This NHS page seems to says call 111 (except Scotland)
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital. Call 111 if you need to speak to someone.
Scotland: call your GP surgery or call 111 if your surgery is not open
Wales: call 111
Northern Ireland: call 111

If that is the procedure in UK, of course follow it Peter.
The advice being given in CH and DE is to call the doc but on no account to turn up at the premises.

highflyer40 2nd Mar 2020 20:39


Originally Posted by Twitter (Post 10700933)
If that is the procedure in UK, of course follow it Peter.
The advice being given in CH and DE is to call the doc but on no account to turn up at the premises.

I donít think many countries have a facility like 111 in the U.K. itís either the emergency services or your GP. Donít call emergency services.

wiggy 2nd Mar 2020 20:51

FWIW advice ATM in France is dial 15 (“SAMU”) ..not 111 equivalent but not quite “blues and twos” either, the operators can offer advice before/instead of rolling the trucks.


and well spotted Torquetalk.... for once I have thought ahead, though TBH I had been planning for the zombie apocalypse, not this.....

ORAC 2nd Mar 2020 21:14

https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-panic-buying

UK supermarkets draw up plan to 'feed the nation' as virus spreads

British supermarkets have drawn up “feed the nation” contingency plans that would help the country cope with any panic-buying brought on by a sudden escalation of the coronavirus outbreak.Under the plans, supermarkets would work with suppliers to scale back the variety of foods and groceries available, and instead focus on maintaining supplies of staple products.......

The supermarket contingency plans were detailed by a City analyst, Bruno Monteyne, of investment firm Alliance Bernstein. Monteyne was previously a supply chain director at Tesco.

Monteyne said a major outbreak of the virus could result in “panic buying, empty shelves and food riots.” However, he added that retailers have “ready-made plans” to deal with disruption and move to “feed-the-nation” status. “Yes, it will be chaotic (and expect pictures of empty shelves),” he wrote in a note to investors, “but the industry will reduce complexity to keep the country fed.”

Monteyne’s note said Tesco, the UK’s largest supermarket chain, has practised “multiday simulation” exercises, including mocked-up news coverage, with different teams preparing responses to a flu pandemic. Tesco confirmed it carried out such preparations and said they were part of being a “responsible retailer.”

Monteyne said supermarkets and their suppliers would work together to agree “a major reduction in ranges” so that suppliers can run their plants more efficiently. He added the big grocers were likely “to be drawing up lists right now of which products will be prioritised”. He said he did not expect prices to rise because “food retailers cannot be seen to be profiteering at a moment of crisis”. However, he warned the disruption could cost the sector £1.2bn in lost profits.

Monteyne added that in the event of acute food shortages he expected the army to be called in “to protect depots, food trucks and stores” and that all grocers and suppliers would start working together.

Several of the big food retailers reported signs of panic buying. A senior executive at one major grocer told the Guardian it was witnessing stockpiling of bottled water, core grocery lines such as tinned food and pasta, and cleaning products......

Winemaker 2nd Mar 2020 21:17


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10700894)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-new-york-case

Coronavirus: six dead in Washington state as new cases reported across US

Here's the Seattle Times article re current deaths; no fear mongering, reporting facts. This disease is not good for oldsters.... I understand they are also isolating fire fighters who were called to the nursing facility and interacted with the infected patients. Seattle is buying a motel to set up an isolation facility - good thinking.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-now-has-14-coronavirus-cases-including-5-deaths/

SASless 2nd Mar 2020 21:43


All of the deaths occurred at EvergreenHealth Health Medical Center in Kirkland, according to Dr. Ettore Palazzo, a spokesman for the hospital at a news conference in Seattle. Five of the deaths were of King County residents and one a Snohomish County resident. It is the first COVID-19 death in Snohomish County.
Begs some questions doesn't it?

Long Term care homes cannot prevent or find Bed Sores with any level of reliability....so how can we trust them to monitor the old folks for indications of a Virus such as this one?

Sad to say but by the time you find yourself in such a place....you are on the Launching Pad for that last trip of your Life.

Winemaker 2nd Mar 2020 22:38


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 10700990)
Begs some questions doesn't it?

Long Term care homes cannot prevent or find Bed Sores with any level of reliability....so how can we trust them to monitor the old folks for indications of a Virus such as this one?

Sad to say but by the time you find yourself in such a place....you are on the Launching Pad for that last trip of your Life.

Yep. My mother died last fall at the age of 95; honestly her death was a release for her. We were fortunate to be able to keep her in her own home until the last week of her life; she would have died years earlier if she had been in an old folks' home. I sure don't want to end up in one but my scheme to hike off into the snowy mountains one day has a single major fault; I probably won't be able to......

KelvinD 2nd Mar 2020 23:38

Well, watching Newsnight (BBC) this evening was an eyeopener. Emily Maitles interviewed a Trump cheerleader, Scottie Nell Hughes who dropped a couple of gems. First, she said there are only 9 cases of coronavirus in the US. At the time she was saying this, data showed 99 cases. Then she started banging on about the US not being "shut down from refugees. like the UK". Really? UK is shut down now, is it? And we are swamped with refugees? Whatever, she said this less than a minute after strongly advocating the US shut down its borders, specifying "the ports, the shipping ports and talking about the West Coast where they are seeing the biggest influx". I thought Trump was a bit mad but this lady takes the bloody biscuit. (for our friends on the West side of the pond, I am not saying we don't have equivalent lunatics here. We do. In spades! But this lady was remarkable.

KelvinD 2nd Mar 2020 23:48


case fatality rate is much higher than seasonal flu. There is no disagreement on that
How about this for a disagreement then. In a UK government report, it says that
"The cumulative number of cases and deaths were slightly lower compared to the 2017 to 2018 season (3,245 cases (mean weekly incidence of 0.20per 100,000) and 330 deaths) but higher than the 2016 to 2017 season (992 cases (mean weekly incidence of 0.06 per 100, 000) and 112 deaths) in England (Figure 17). The case fatality rate (proportion of ICU/HDU influenza cases which have died due to influenza) was 9.3% (273/2,924) based on data from week 40 2018 to week 15 2019. This compares with a case-fatality rate of 10.2% (330/3,245) in the previous 2017 to 2018 season".
Note that: Case fatality rates of 9.3% & 10.2%
https://assets.publishing.service.go...2019-FINAL.pdf


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