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stagger 18th Sep 2020 20:10


Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes (Post 10887801)
Just out of interest, did anyone watch BBC Question Time last night? Worth catching up on iplayer.

Sunetra Gupta, epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford, made a lot of sense and a balanced view.

Trouble with Gupta's argument that we should pursue "collective immunity" (her attempt to sound less controversial) is that she was saying we had almost achieved "herd immunity" back in March, and in April, and in May and June, July, and August. She's been constantly banging on about how we've almost achieved "herd immunity" and been proved wrong time and time again. Search the news archives for her name during any month of the pandemic and you'll find interviews with her saying that we've already almost achieved "herd immunity".

The serology tests for antibody tests have proved that she was wrong - and the current explosion in case numbers proves she was wrong. We're nowhere close.



PickyPerkins 18th Sep 2020 20:20

Low mortality rates
 

Originally Posted by Peter H (Post 10887740)
Your link doesn't work for me, but I assume that you are referring to this farm
Spain To Kill Authorities in northern Spain ordered over 90,000 mink to be killed at a farm. https://curlytales.com/spain-to-kill...r-coronavirus/
Authorities in northern Spain ordered over 90,000 mink to be killed at a farm. They took this decision after around 87% of them tested positive for the coronavirus.

In the related paper https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext
Overall mortality between date of reporting and 30 April was 2.4% at NB1 and 1.2% at NB2, while ca 0.6% would have been expected, based on observations from previous years, in the same period.

The important thing seems to be that 87% was the covid infection rate, while the covid death rate was vastly lower.

Yes, the link referred to the cull of 90,000 mink on two farms.

Thanks for the link to the related paper. I hadn't realized that the farms had been monitored in detail, and that my proposed experiment had effectively been already done.

The mortality rates of 2.4% and 1.2% with an infection rate of 87% look really interesting and encouraging. Although the host species was not human, these low rates with the hosts living in very close proximity to each other, and taking no precautions, are really encouraging, and suggests that with some precautions humans may get away with 1% or less mortality even with most of the population being infected (which hasn't happened yet).

From the point of view of society as a whole, 1% or less might be acceptable compared with the severe economic suffering of a much larger fraction of the population. Being out of work and faced with eviction from your home with children to care for must be a nightmare of the worst kind. I an still going to be wearing a mask and keeping my distance. What do you think?

P.S. I am almost certain to be one of the 1% or less!

BehindBlueEyes 18th Sep 2020 20:43

Clearly, the only way any of our differing opinions will be proven right or wrong is to look at the mortality rate in 4 weeks time. That is, providing we’re not all put back into lockdown which will inevitably slow infection, but distort the whole picture. It’s looking more and more like we have two choices; let the virus take its course or keep returning to lockdown every time there is an increase in cases - which could go on for years. Meanwhile, because we’ve all got our eyes on Covid, more people will start to die of other morbidities.

Who wants to make that choice?

stagger 18th Sep 2020 20:49


Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes (Post 10888160)
Clearly, the only way any of our differing opinions will be proven right or wrong is to look at the mortality rate in 4 weeks time. That is, providing we’re not all put back into lockdown which will inevitably slow infection, but distort the whole picture. It’s looking more and more like we have two choices; let the virus take its course or keep returning to lockdown every time there is an increase in cases - which could go on for years. Meanwhile, because we’ve all got our eyes on Covid, more people will start to die of other morbidities.

There is a middle ground where you just lock down the aspects of society most strongly linked with COVID transmission. E.g. the hospitality sector.

CDC research has shown of all the activities people might engage in (using public transport, getting haircuts, going shopping) it's eating and drinking out that poses the big risk for transmission...

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6936a5_x

UK COVID case numbers started to climb significantly during August - during "Eat Out to Help Out" which with hindsight may turn out to be a disastrous policy.

BehindBlueEyes 18th Sep 2020 21:13


Originally Posted by stagger (Post 10888163)
There is a middle ground where you just lock down the aspects of society most strongly linked with COVID transmission. E.g. the hospitality sector.

CDC research has shown of all the activities people might engage in (using public transport, getting haircuts, going shopping) it's eating and drinking out that poses the big risk for transmission...

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6936a5_x

UK COVID case numbers started to climb significantly during August - during "Eat Out to Help Out" which with hindsight may turn out to be a disastrous policy.

I have to say, I didn’t realise that connection - and it’s a very valid point,

We went out and met another couple for a pub meal three weeks ago. We were all sitting in a foursome approximately 90cm across a table from our friends and were in the establishment at the same table for at least a couple of hours. Because they had walked to the pub and it was dark, at the end of the evening I offered them a lift home. They declined, their reasoning being that it probably wasn’t good practice to be in a car with people not in the same bubble. It struck me as quite odd that we had all sat for a considerable time in closer proximity, and facing each other, than we would have done in a vehicle.

It has always puzzled me that I have to wear a mask for a quick visit to a shop, but can sit in a bar or restaurant opening my mouth and ingesting possibly contaminated food and airborne particles.




BehindBlueEyes 18th Sep 2020 22:31


Originally Posted by stagger (Post 10888143)
Refusing to accept the reality of something because you haven't witnessed it first hand is just daft. Do you know anybody killed by a thermonuclear weapon? By malaria? By Ebola.

I think Landflap’s point is; if you were being told on a daily basis that 57000 of your fellow countrymen had died and 385,000 of them were suffering from nuclear fallout, malaria or Ebola, you would expect to know someone who had had the misfortune to experience these first hand. The examples listed weren’t a very good analogy because 85% of those infected by Covid probably won’t even realise, where you as sure as hell would know if you experienced any one of those three!

wowzz 18th Sep 2020 22:37

"E.g. the hospitality sector"
Which is the largest employer in the UK. Shut it down, and you destroy tens of thousands of jobs.



currawong 18th Sep 2020 23:23


Originally Posted by stagger (Post 10888149)
Trouble with Gupta's argument that we should pursue "collective immunity" (her attempt to sound less controversial) is that she was saying we had almost achieved "herd immunity" back in March, and in April, and in May and June, July, and August. She's been constantly banging on about how we've almost achieved "herd immunity" and been proved wrong time and time again. Search the news archives for her name during any month of the pandemic and you'll find interviews with her saying that we've already almost achieved "herd immunity".

The serology tests for antibody tests have proved that she was wrong - and the current explosion in case numbers proves she was wrong. We're nowhere close.

The trouble I have with Dr Gupta's argument is it's position relative to that of her (former) husband....


Peter H 18th Sep 2020 23:32


Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes (Post 10888160)
Clearly, the only way any of our differing opinions will be proven right or wrong is to look at the mortality rate in 4 weeks time. That is, providing we’re not all put back into lockdown which will inevitably slow infection, but distort the whole picture. It’s looking more and more like we have two choices; let the virus take its course or keep returning to lockdown every time there is an increase in cases - which could go on for years. Meanwhile, because we’ve all got our eyes on Covid, more people will start to die of other morbidities.

Who wants to make that choice?

In addition, periodic shutdowns can be either ad-hoc or planned. I don't think anybody has tried the latter, but papers early in the epidemic suggested that it might have advantages. Medium range predictability for one, and reduction of political dithering for another. But whatever you decide, a big call.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7b75fdf38e.jpg
From Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppressCOVID-19 and allow economic activity https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...579v1.full.pdf


Peter H 18th Sep 2020 23:49


Originally Posted by wowzz (Post 10888194)
"E.g. the hospitality sector"
Which is the largest employer in the UK. Shut it down, and you destroy tens of thousands of jobs.

And the real problem is that much of it previously relied on [currently] unacceptable levels of social distancing. Sometimes as an important part of the experience, and sometimes to reach an acceptable price-point.

Andrewgr2 19th Sep 2020 05:59

How long will this go on?
 
When I started this thread back in January, I thought I was talking about a serious problem in a far off land which might not ever get here. This thread has now clocked over 10000 replies and continues to be about as active as the virus. Would anyone hazard a guess as to whether, like the virus, the thread will die out naturally or whether it will go on forever - mods and vaccines permitting?

currawong 19th Sep 2020 06:27

We have our best people on the problem.....

:}

stagger 19th Sep 2020 07:12


Originally Posted by wowzz (Post 10888194)
"E.g. the hospitality sector"
Which is the largest employer in the UK. Shut it down, and you destroy tens of thousands of jobs.

No it is not the largest sector. Nowhere close.

I didn't say all retail - In light of the CDC data I was specifically referring to "hospitality" - i.e. restaurants, pubs and cafes (and hotels).

Yes - it could cause job losses - but please get the basic facts right.

Hospitality is the 7th largest sector - behind things like retail/wholesale, healthcare, professional/science/tech, admin, education and manufacturing.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...k-by-industry/


Stan Woolley 19th Sep 2020 07:13


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 10888291)
When I started this thread back in January, I thought I was talking about a serious problem in a far off land which might not ever get here. This thread has now clocked over 10000 replies and continues to be about as active as the virus. Would anyone hazard a guess as to whether, like the virus, the thread will die out naturally or whether it will go on forever - mods and vaccines permitting?

Imo it’s far more active than the virus. :8

ORAC 19th Sep 2020 07:14

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...ards-0lx09ckzp

Madrid pitches tents to take the strain off Spain’s crowded coronavirus wards

Madrid announced new lockdown measures on its worst-affected areas as the authorities moved to curb infections that are threatening hospitals.

The measures, which include restricting the movements of 13 per cent of people in the Spanish capital and its surrounding region, were made public as doctors warned that intensive care units were in danger of collapse with primary healthcare centres overwhelmed......

Yesterday a line of green tents was installed at the gates of Gómez Ulla military hospital, four months after similar structures to house coronavirus patients were taken down. The defence ministry said the tents were a “precaution” and were not yet taking patients......

During the past 14 days Spain has registered 292 infections per 100,000 of population, compared with 172 in France and 61 in the UK*. In recent days the country, which has registered more than 30,400 coronavirus fatalities and more than 640,000 cases, has recorded new daily infections rates of over 14,000. The number of weekly confirmed deaths rose to 439, twice what it was two weeks ago.

Madrid, which accounts for a third of Spain’s new cases, has recorded 659 infections per 100,000, with its southern working-class districts recording more than 1,000 cases per 100,000, which has underscored social inequality. Statistics suggest that the spread of the virus is accelerating........

The regional government says the number of intensive care beds taken up by coronavirus patients stands at about 40 per cent, but doctors estimate it is nearer 80 per cent......




https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dc6f516af.jpeg

* https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1873...raised-yellow/

Coronavirus: West Sussex alert level raised to yellow

.......On Thursday the rate of transmission was 375.5 per 100,000 people.....

Gordomac 19th Sep 2020 09:08

Sorry Torque, but did you KNOW the Baggage Handler and the Nurse ? Neither had underlying health conditions, so you say. How do you know ? Oh, looked fine to you eh ? That's OK then.

On side with Landflap too . Your sentence about awareness being related to bombs etc is just too shallow for comment and indicates that the point has whistled over your head like concord.

Love Stan's comment, way back, too that this thread is just becoming an echo chamber as he suggested he might just have to be "done" with it as well..

BBE fully balanced and on track too. As ever .Heartening.

My take (?) backing off too I'm afraid. Picking up my motor from a three day garage visit, I forgot to put on me mask. Shouted at by the pretty young thang behind a big body size perspex shield but wearing her mask round her chin. Quickly correcting by masking up, obediently, I calmed her down, told her they were useless and asked why she was wearing her's round her chin. Cripes, what a smile. Not being able to help myself, I too asked the time honoured question ; "Well, do YOU know anyone who got the virus ?" I didn't go into part two, three & four of the same question because she spat out the answer "No" to part one. Didn't know anyone who had even got the virus in the first place. Nor did her mate (ugly as hell bloke) sitting beside her with his mask dangling off the side of his ear as a pointed a fingure at him and asked;"What about you?"

Stagger; point is, one last time, even here on this small, sunny island, I and many others have no direct knowledge of anyone who even got the virus.NO-ONE That does not mean we think WW1, WW2, Viet bombing by B52's were all conspiracy theories. Good grief. I give up. Really. WE are just, simply, standing back and wondering ......WTF..... ?

Anyway, solved the mask problem. I cut a big hole in the mouthpiece. Now, I am not reducing oxy intake by 25% and nasty carbon dioxide output is not being trapped inside. Feel really fit and look quite cute too...................Does it for me.................

Torquetalk 19th Sep 2020 09:14


Originally Posted by Gordomac (Post 10888394)
Sorry Torque, but did you KNOW the Baggage Handler and the Nurse ? Neither had underlying health conditions, so you say. How do you know ? Oh, looked fine to you eh ? That's OK then.

On side with Landflap too . Your sentence about awareness being related to bombs etc is just too shallow for comment and indicates that the point has whistled over your head like concord.

Love Stan's comment, way back, too that this thread is just becoming an echo chamber as he suggested he might just have to be "done" with it as well..

BBE fully balanced and on track too. As ever .Heartening.

My take (?) backing off too I'm afraid. Picking up my motor from a three day garage visit, I forgot to put on me mask. Shouted at by the pretty young thang behind a big body size perspex shield but wearing her mask round her chin. Quickly correcting by masking up, obediently, I calmed her down, told her they were useless and asked why she was wearing her's round her chin. Cripes, what a smile. Not being able to help myself, I too asked the time honoured question ; "Well, do YOU know anyone who got the virus ?" I didn't go into part two, three & four of the same question because she spat out the answer "No" to part one. Didn't know anyone who had even got the virus in the first place. Nor did her mate (ugly as hell bloke) sitting beside her with his mask dangling off the side of his ear as a pointed a fingure at him and asked;"What about you?"

Stagger; point is, one last time, even here on this small, sunny island, I and many others have no direct knowledge of anyone who even got the virus.NO-ONE That does not mean we think WW1, WW2, Viet bombing by B52's were all conspiracy theories. Good grief. I give up. Really. WE are just, simply, standing back and wondering ......WTF..... ?

Anyway, solved the mask problem. I cut a big hole in the mouthpiece. Now, I am not reducing oxy intake by 25% and nasty carbon dioxide output is not being trapped inside. Feel really fit and look quite cute too...................Does it for me.................


😂😂😂


That’s fhe funniest post in ages. 👍👍

Even a bot couldn’t produce such deranged drivel 🤣🤣🤣

highflyer40 19th Sep 2020 09:20


Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes (Post 10888193)
I think Landflap’s point is; if you were being told on a daily basis that 57000 of your fellow countrymen had died and 385,000 of them were suffering from nuclear fallout, malaria or Ebola, you would expect to know someone who had had the misfortune to experience these first hand. The examples listed weren’t a very good analogy because 85% of those infected by Covid probably won’t even realise, where you as sure as hell would know if you experienced any one of those three!

Why would you expect to know or have heard of someone who has had it? As it stands with the numbers you posted above that is still less than 1% of the population. So it would stand to reason you would be more likely to not know of anybody contracting it.... yet.

These numbers are going to rise, and quickly in the next couple of months. Timing wise we actually got lucky at the start. By the time it took a good foothold here we were coming into spring and into summer. Let’s see what things look like around Christmas while we head into the autumn and winter seasons.

BehindBlueEyes 19th Sep 2020 09:34


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 10888405)
Why would you expect to know or have heard of someone who has had it? As it stands with the numbers you posted above that is still less than 1% of the population. So it would stand to reason you would be more likely to not know of anybody contracting it.... yet.

These numbers are going to rise, and quickly in the next couple of months. Timing wise we actually got lucky at the start. By the time it took a good foothold here we were coming into spring and into summer. Let’s see what things look like around Christmas while we head into the autumn and winter seasons.

But, using that argument, you could also assume that if this thing has been in circulation in the U.K. for nearly 9 months - and its only infected less than 1% of the inhabitants of a small, densely inhabited Island, it not as virulent as implied.

I haven’t a clue either how this thong will pan out.

under_exposed 19th Sep 2020 09:49


Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes (Post 10888412)
But, using that argument, you could also assume that if this thing has been in circulation in the U.K. for nearly 9 months - and its only infected less than 1% of the inhabitants of a small, densely inhabited Island, it not as virulent as implied.

I haven’t a clue either how this thong will pan out.

Or maybe it shows the lockdown worked.


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