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-   -   Coronavirus: The Thread (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/629061-coronavirus-thread.html)

meadowrun 16th Jul 2020 11:00

Here in Canada we seem to be doing reasonably well with this thing (knocks black walnut coffee table) but there is a distinct absence of the most effective way to get messages out to the public - on TV - through PSAs (public serve announcements), hammering in the basic precautions everyone needs to take and reinforcing the social duty to follow these precautions.. Given the proliferation of American TV that creeps across the border - same for the US. Dunno about your locales.

There also seems to be a requirement to re-evaluate just what are essential services for the public. i.e. What services and activities need to be provided and what are really not needed at all and in effect constitute hazards in the control of the virus's effects.
Cannot believe that organized sports (pro and amateur), tattoo parlours, nail salons, parties and other mass get togethers are given precedence or even allowed.
We can do without all that stuff for awhile.
There needs to be concentration on getting the majors safely sorted out first - Schools, transport and work.


Similarly - will it make sense on university campuses to have students required to wear a face covering when they pop into the campus shop to buy a snack, a face covering which they can then take off when they go to sit in a lecture theatre with loads of other students???
And that is an example of where common sense is important. Can University students not figure out on their own when it makes sense to mask and distance? Think for yourselves, you sheep.

ORAC 16th Jul 2020 12:25

A heads-up for anyone who participates in the Apple Beta programme......

https://9to5mac.com/2020/07/15/conta...pps-in-europe/

PSA: IOS 14 Public Beta Disables Contact-Tracing Apps in Europe

If you’re still weighing up the pros and cons of installing the iOS 14 public beta, it’s worth noting that it disables coronavirus contact tracing apps in Europe if they use the Apple API …

Apple lists this as a ‘known issue’ with the beta.

Once you have the beta installed, going into Settings > Privacy > Health will show that COVID-19 Exposure Logging is off. If you try to turn it back on, a message says that the feature is ‘Not available in your region.’

It’s particularly important to point out as there is no alert to this unless you check your contact tracing app. The Irish app, for example, has a warning symbol on the Contact Tracing tab, and if you tap that it tells you that the feature is not active and you should enable it in settings. You cannot, however, do that in the current public beta.

Most European countries have adopted or are in the process of adopting the joint Apple/Google contact tracing API, which means that most European apps do not currently work with the beta.

Alsacienne 16th Jul 2020 12:34

We have now become so used to 'having rights', 'being influenced' and 'making previous generations pay for/apologise for what we consider to be wrong/inappropriate' that common sense has taken a back seat and has become outdated by those who shout the loudest or who have the most money to push their point of view.

You may all be offended but I'll take the risk. Those who lived through WW2 or who had parents who did so can accept more easily that sometimes one has to put personal wishes aside for the greater good, and to do accept authority without question for their own security and well-being.

I am aware that the information about mask-wearing in England is somewhat unclear .... if I were visiting, I wouldn't know (as a visitor) when to wear a mask and when not when outside my house ....

Whilst I am not wishing to sound as though I'm playing a game, I would make the observation from fact that during our lockdown period in France, the fact that the restriction of movement, stating of specific reasons for absence from one's domicile and severe fines even for a first infringement, made it easy to understand what the law said and the consequences of not conforming to the lockdown laws. People didn't necessarily agree with what was required of them, but the fact that it was the law (and legally enforceable) rather than a recommendation made it clear to us all what we must do. And by and large we complied. Since lockdown was eased, the laws have been reevaluated, but there are still laws for the wearing of masks, social distancing and size of groups. Again, the fact that these are laws not recommendations should make it easier for folk to comply ... and in complying reduce the risk to themselves and others of catching COVID-19.

BehindBlueEyes 16th Jul 2020 13:11


Originally Posted by Alsacienne (Post 10838722)
We have now become so used to 'having rights', 'being influenced' and 'making previous generations pay for/apologise for what we consider to be wrong/inappropriate' that common sense has taken a back seat and has become outdated by those who shout the loudest or who have the most money to push their point of view.

You may all be offended but I'll take the risk. Those who lived through WW2 or who had parents who did so can accept more easily that sometimes one has to put personal wishes aside for the greater good, and to do accept authority without question for their own security and well-being.

I am aware that the information about mask-wearing in England is somewhat unclear .... if I were visiting, I wouldn't know (as a visitor) when to wear a mask and when not when outside my house ....

Whilst I am not wishing to sound as though I'm playing a game, I would make the observation from fact that during our lockdown period in France, the fact that the restriction of movement, stating of specific reasons for absence from one's domicile and severe fines even for a first infringement, made it easy to understand what the law said and the consequences of not conforming to the lockdown laws. People didn't necessarily agree with what was required of them, but the fact that it was the law (and legally enforceable) rather than a recommendation made it clear to us all what we must do. And by and large we complied. Since lockdown was eased, the laws have been reevaluated, but there are still laws for the wearing of masks, social distancing and size of groups. Again, the fact that these are laws not recommendations should make it easier for folk to comply ... and in complying reduce the risk to themselves and others of catching COVID-19.

I think youíre spot on.

My grumbling about masks is not really about wearing them, itís the inconsistency about the application of the ruling. If itís black and white (not sure I should be saying that, but thatís another story) I would understand it, but thereís so many variances. I think VP959 has also made a very valid point, the number of stupidly worn ones make the ruling even worse and totally pointless. Iíve seen them under chins, under noses, on top of heads, being taken off so someone can speak and revoltingly grubby ones too.

flash8 16th Jul 2020 13:46

Just reported:

Sir Patrick Vallance has just been asked if there are any instances in which the government has gone against scientific advice on Covid-19.

“In general, what I can be absolutely clear about is that those making policy decisions have heard and understood the scientific advice,” Vallance said.
So that's a yes then.

WB627 16th Jul 2020 15:39


Originally Posted by VP959 (Post 10838585)
There is indeed a shortage of common sense, and a part of that is due to there being near-zero education with regard to the mechanism of infection transmission and real basic stuff, like how wearing masks, gloves etc properly can help to reduce the risk. Telling people to wear masks without giving at least some basic information as to how to do so properly, and when wearing one might be sensible, is akin to telling someone that can't drive to just get in and give it ago, with no need for instruction.

I'm at a loss to understand why there hasn't been any effective public educational stuff put out about reducing infection transmission risk. It isn't rocket science, but it seems clear that many people are completely ignorant of the basic principles, even many of those who are wearing masks and gloves, but putting themselves at potentially greater risk because they just fail to understand some basic principles.

I took Mrs WB627 to the surgery today for a diabetes check up and sitting outside waiting for her to be taken in by the back door, I was amazed at how many people were coming and going with their masks not covering their noses, mostly elderly. There was one woman, who pushed here way through the crowd milling around outside to get to the letter box who wasn't even wearing a mask.

I don't think it's Covid 19 killing people I think it is stupidity.

ORAC 17th Jul 2020 08:19

https://order-order.com/2020/07/17/o...herd-immunity/

Oxford Study: Britain Has Reached Herd Immunity

A new Oxford University study suggests Britain has already reached herd immunity levels, as a new model predicts as few as 20% of the population may need to be resistant to Coronavirus to prevent a new epidemic spreading.

Far below the 50-60% threshold previously thought…

The study has managed to demonstrate that when COVID-resistant people mix with those yet to contract the virus, the herd immunity threshold “drops sharply”, explicitly observing: “Thus, a second peak may result in far fewer deaths, particularly among those with comorbidities in the younger age classes.”

Unfortunately the proof in the pudding would be a second wave of Coronavirus, probably in the winter, which no one – however confident they are about herd immunity – would want to risk…

Read the study in full here

stagger 17th Jul 2020 08:36


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10839455)
https://order-order.com/2020/07/17/o...herd-immunity/

Oxford Study: Britain Has Reached Herd Immunity

A new Oxford University study suggests Britain has already reached herd immunity levels, as a new model predicts as few as 20% of the population may need to be resistant to Coronavirus to prevent a new epidemic spreading.

Before even opening the link I knew this was going to be Sunetra Gupta again.

It's a mathematical modelling paper - they haven't measured levels of immunity in anyone.

This is the same scientist who recently was banging on in the media about lockdown making our immune systems "weaker" (with no evidence for this).

And back in March she was saying that 50% of the UK population had already been infected - only to be proved completely wrong when antibody studies in May showed that the proportion was < 20% even in London.

This particular scientist has always been very keen to try to downplay the risks - and to repeat - does not study actual infection rates or immunity in the UK population. It's all theoretical work.

ATNotts 17th Jul 2020 08:46


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 10838908)
I took Mrs WB627 to the surgery today for a diabetes check up and sitting outside waiting for her to be taken in by the back door, I was amazed at how many people were coming and going with their masks not covering their noses, mostly elderly. There was one woman, who pushed here way through the crowd milling around outside to get to the letter box who wasn't even wearing a mask.

I don't think it's Covid 19 killing people I think it is stupidity.

I was in Lidl yesterday, since the government has told us that masks need to be worn from next Friday, I have made the assumption that if they're needed then, then they are needed now, so from the beginning of this week I have worn my mask when entering shops, and will do likewise when I enter a restaurant and pub, should I be inclined to visit either.

I was struck by firstly, just how few customers were wearing masks, but even more surprisingly how few staff were wearing them. There is a dispenser for hand sanitiser at the entrance with a sign saying "please sanitise your hands", but it's not one of the automatic ones you don't have to touch, but just a bottle with a pump action. Surely the sign should say "you must sanitise your hands" and a modern non-touch dispenser ought to be in place, they appear to be the norm at supermarkets on the European continent. Given that employers have a duty of care to their employees, they should be enforcing the use of masks and visors for customer facing staff, and to avoid being sued by any employee contracting Covid-19 surely the onus should be upon the store management to ensure that customers are wearing masks, and ejecting from the shop if they refuse to comply when instructed (not asked).

This isn't just a critique of Lidl, Morrisons and Tesco appear to operate in the same lackadaisical manner. It isn't the job of police to enforce rules inside private premises, it's clearly the jobs of the retailers and they simply don't appear to be taking things seriously, believing that making customers queue outside the shop somehow cuts the mustard; it doesn't.

ORAC 17th Jul 2020 09:11

The government has ordered an urgent review into how PHE calculates its daily Covid death figures.

According to Sky News the current calculations are currently done based on whether anyone who dies has ever tested positive for Covid.

The example given was that if someone had tested positive for Covid in March, then fully recovered and returned to work and was then hit by a bus and killed crossing the road yesterday - they would currently then be included in the PHE daily Covid death figures.

stagger 17th Jul 2020 09:18


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10839502)
The government has ordered an urgent review into how PHE calculates its daily Covid death figures.

According to Sky News the current calculations are currently done based on whether anyone who dies has ever tested positive for Covid.

The example given was that if someone had tested positive for Covid in March, then fully recovered and returned to work and was then hit by a bus and killed crossing the road yesterday - they would currently then be included in the PHE daily Covid death figures.

Of course this has no impact on the "excess death" figures - as these provide a measure of deaths over and above what you'd expect for a typical year.

Preliminary mortality estimates for the COVID-19 pandemic have been published here...

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

England and Spain are noted as being unusual for seeing excess mortality - not just in older groups - but also in the 15-44 year range.



Peter H 17th Jul 2020 09:49


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10839455)
https://order-order.com/2020/07/17/o...herd-immunity/
Oxford Study: Britain Has Reached Herd Immunity
A new Oxford University study suggests Britain has already reached herd immunity levels, as a new model predicts as few as 20% of the population may need to be resistant to Coronavirus to prevent a new epidemic spreading.
...
Read the study in full hereÖ

What a truly off-putting presentational style. I'll take a deep breath and try to read it this evening.

I would very strongly recommend looking at the ""Supplementary Material", especially "Model details and extra result", first
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medr...20154294-2.pdf

charliegolf 17th Jul 2020 09:59


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10839502)
The government has ordered an urgent review into how PHE calculates its daily Covid death figures.

According to Sky News the current calculations are currently done based on whether anyone who dies has ever tested positive for Covid.

The example given was that if someone had tested positive for Covid in March, then fully recovered and returned to work and was then hit by a bus and killed crossing the road yesterday - they would currently then be included in the PHE daily Covid death figures.

I thought they were using death cert deets. No? Matt wanting to 'adjust' a bit more of the narrative? Yesterday the lockdown slipped a week in his favour.

CG

stagger 17th Jul 2020 15:48

A good illustration of how undercounting of COVID-19 deaths is a big problem too.

Back in April there was a big surge in "other deaths" (supposedly excluding COVID-19) in UK care homes. This surge coincided with the peak in confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the care homes - and was happening at a time when it was extremely difficult for care home residents to get tested for COVID-19.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f0e6be58ba.png

VP959 17th Jul 2020 17:17

I'm highlighting this here by way of a wager, as I strongly suspect these words may well come back and bite him in the backside:


Coronavirus restrictions will ease further in England under plans for a "significant return to normality" by Christmas, Boris Johnson has announced.
Whilst I fully understand his wish to be seen to be optimistic, much of the evidence now available seems to indicate that we are very likely to see a surge in the number of cases this coming winter. It seems unlikely that we will have a vaccine that's widely available by then, and it seems highly probable that this disease may well behave like other, similar, infectious respiratory diseases and have a far more serious impact during the winter.

There's some evidence to suggest that this disease is getting less virulent, and whilst that would be something to be expected to some degree (natural selection tends to work in this direction, as it enhances the chances of the disease spreading), I'm not at all convinced that this is the primary reason for this disease. The evidence that people are more susceptible to severe infectious respiratory disease during the winter months seems very strong, so it would seem safe to assume that this disease may well behave similarly.

What would be useful would be a study looking at a large population of cases and correlating the severity of symptoms with factors known to have an impact on other viral seasonal diseases, like influenza. For example, the Australian work (linked by Peter H earlier, and in this publication: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/...1743-422X-5-29) looking at vitamin D levels and seasonal influenza seems to show a very strong correlation. If there was a similar correlation for Covid-19 then that might be a cheap and effective way to perhaps reduce the severity of this disease during the winter months. I'm not a supporter of taking action without good evidence to support it, but, given there's not enough time to do much in the way of preventing the continued spread of this disease, I'm taking a rather non-scientific course of action and will continue to take ~2,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day. It can't do harm at that level, and at a cost of under £8 a month it seems a small price to pay, especially if it does help a bit.


ORAC 17th Jul 2020 18:20

Of those reported as having died of Covid-19 by PHE only 47% had it recorded as the main cause of death on their death certificates.

What does that do to the reported UK death figures compared to other nations?




WB627 17th Jul 2020 18:32


Coronavirus: Boris Johnson sets out plan for 'significant normality' by Christmas
AND

£3bn for NHS to prepare for possible second wave
Obviously hedging his bets, but can't be both.

As I said yesterday, the advice we were given by a Doctor, (and not Dr WB627) was that we would be back in lockdown by the end of October. I sincerely hope not, not least because the youngest WB627 was promoted yesterday and the leisure facility he is now the manager of, will open again on 1st August.

guy_incognito 17th Jul 2020 18:50


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 10839923)
As I said yesterday, the advice we were given by a Doctor, (and not Dr WB627) was that we would be back in lockdown by the end of October.

Politically impossible. It will not happen.

Vat is Jetstream 17th Jul 2020 20:01


Originally Posted by guy_incognito (Post 10839938)
Politically impossible. It will not happen.

The virus will decide if it will happen or not. If people do not wear masks properly and R rate goes mental like it did in early March.

BehindBlueEyes 17th Jul 2020 20:56


Originally Posted by Vat is Jetstream (Post 10839986)
The virus will decide if it will happen or not. If people do not wear masks properly and R rate goes mental like it did in early March.


Iím not so sure the British Public would be so compliant a second time. Most people went along with it to start with but two camps seem to have evolved now. Those who think we shouldnít be easing up yet and want to put the brakes on and those that think the economy needs to be revitalised. Itís all become very divisive.


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