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andrewn 2nd Sep 2019 07:04


Originally Posted by Steepclimb (Post 10559241)
Your mind may have been made up, Bob but you were not his target audience. It was the undecideds and disenfranchised. You would do well to watch that video in its entirety. He describes in detail how he and his team did it in his own words. He's quite frank about the famous bus promise which as we know is a complete lie.

If you don't find it disturbing that a very small group of unelected people essentially manipulated the voters into voting for something they didn't really understand. Then I'm sorry for you.

I don't think you voted for no deal. No one did. But that's what you're getting. Democracy?

Oh dear steepclimb, you're opening up a can of worms with this post...

Did you not hear Gideon and Carney at the time, forecasting emergency budgets and economic disaster in the event of a Leave vote, prior to us actually leaving!? What happened to those lies then?

You know why they told those lies? It's because it suited them to tell those lies, because they understood that the status quo benefited themselves, their cronies and backers in big business. Why leave a club that has served the elite so well for so long? I've said it before, and I still believe it, leaving the EU is an opportunity for a reset in a whole number of areas. Do I call that Democracy, well yes I suppose I do for what its worth.

Onwards!

Fly Aiprt 2nd Sep 2019 07:36


Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic (Post 10559626)
You have no evidence for this. Yes I am sure you want it to be true, but isn't it a simple matter that other people think differently ​​​to you and you can't accept it? So now you make predictions of the future which you obviously can't know?

People that do not accept that others think differently often accuse others of not accepting that other people think differently...

Besides, predictions are a difficult art, especially when it comes to the future ;-)







denachtenmai 2nd Sep 2019 09:09


Besides, predictions are a difficult art, impossible, especially when it comes to the future Brexit;-)
Fixed that for you.

zoigberg 2nd Sep 2019 09:23


Originally Posted by denachtenmai (Post 10559815)
Fixed that for you.

Here’s a quote from a speech which was first recorded on 19th June. Two and a half months ago, before BJ was anointed.

“This is why serious players in Brussels and certain capitals have concluded, as have I, that we are now rather likely to be headed for a breakdown to “no deal”.
The cynical amongst them remark that the best political route to “no deal”, given that the current Commons evidently won’t vote for it, is to demand the revision of the Withdrawal Agreement replacing the backstop with the so-called “alternative arrangements” set out in the Brady and Malthouse amendments, the handling of which so grievously damaged the previous Prime Minister’s reputation in capitals earlier in the year.
Once that proposal is duly rejected - which it will be - you say you have been rebuffed by the intransigent, faceless technocrats of Brussels and thwarted by a Parliament dominated by Remainers. And you have teed up an election in which the Conservative manifesto seeks public backing for the proposition that we either get those alternative arrangements in lieu of the backstop or we go to “no deal”. Within weeks”

In short, the Eu is expecting a no deal. They are rather unworried about it as they are well aware of the repercussions of the U.K. no longer having ANY form of trade agreement with their nearest neighbours.

yellowtriumph 2nd Sep 2019 10:21


Originally Posted by Phantom Driver (Post 10559558)
Meanwhile it is reported that more illegals attempted the France-UK crossing in one month than the whole of last year . So much for " taking back control of the borders". Current coastguard fleet ( 5 ? ) ain't going to cut it . With all the cash BoJo's throwing around , I do wonder why no funding mentioned so far for air or sea surveillance assets . Obviously not considered sufficiently important as election winners .

(p.s not much comment on Ms Patels' bold statement--" Free movement will end on 1 Nov " being quietly shelved after legal advice pointed out this was a no-go item . Does make you question the calibre of some in the current administration and their ability to steer the good ship GB on a steady course in the gathering storm . )

You do realise that attempts to cross the channel illegally in either direction would continue whether we were in the EU or not?

Fly Aiprt 2nd Sep 2019 10:40


Originally Posted by denachtenmai (Post 10559815)
Fixed that for you.

Thank you sir !
I was quoting Pierre Dac, a French speaker at the BBC during WW II, whose humour played a major role in the Résistance morale - as well as that of the occupant ;-)

Fly Aiprt 2nd Sep 2019 10:56


Originally Posted by zoigberg (Post 10559829)
In short, the Eu is expecting a no deal. They are rather unworried about it as they are well aware of the repercussions of the U.K. no longer having ANY form of trade agreement with their nearest neighbours.

Thank you for this post.
This more or less matches the prevalent opinion on the continental side of the Channel.

To help put things in perspective :
Today, in the online edition of the French (centre/centre left) paper Le Monde, international news : Brazil, Tunisia, Germany, India, Hong-Kong, Saudi strikes in Yemen, US strikes in Syria...



NutLoose 2nd Sep 2019 11:20

They would still need to plug the £30 odd billion shortfall, I could see some countries wincing at having to stump up for that, I also think the likes of Germany would go into recession.

NutLoose 2nd Sep 2019 11:22


Originally Posted by yellowtriumph (Post 10559872)


You do realise that attempts to cross the channel illegally in either direction would continue whether we were in the EU or not?

Those I simply do not understand, if they had simply registered in the country of arrival, post citizenship they would have been allowed to travel around the EU without risking their lives, true we are apparently leaving, but prior to this deadline, and they have been doing this for years, why bother?

dr dre 2nd Sep 2019 12:18


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 10559935)
They would still need to plug the £30 odd billion shortfall, I could see some countries wincing at having to stump up for that, I also think the likes of Germany would go into recession.

You do realise the EU is 7x economically stronger than the UK and can easily impose its own measures on the UK if it refuses to pay the money it’s legally oblidged to spend?

High tariffs, restrictions on importation of critical goods, restictions on work visas of UK citizens, restrictions on British carriers using EU airspace, denying British retirees in the EU pensions and free healthcare, not fulfilling any EU obligations to the UK etc.

When you’re 7x as large you can impose a lot of hardships on an unruly child, and ones that’ll quickly cost far more than £30 billion.

zoigberg 2nd Sep 2019 12:19


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 10559935)
They would still need to plug the £30 odd billion shortfall, I could see some countries wincing at having to stump up for that, I also think the likes of Germany would go into recession.

it doesn’t worry then greatly. The thinking is that we will need to have some/any kind of trade agreement with the EU. The price for coming to the negotiation table will be as it is now. 30 bn, backstop, and very likely some other things on top.
in the meantime our exports to the EU will be subject to tarriffs, (in the opposite direction we are likely to maintain tariff-free), and the EU will decide the economic framework within which we will be able to operate. Example, Notice to Stakeholders in Aviation.
They will make the rules for us.

drdre you beat me to it

Fly Aiprt 2nd Sep 2019 12:29


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 10559935)
They would still need to plug the £30 odd billion shortfall, I could see some countries wincing at having to stump up for that, I also think the likes of Germany would go into recession.

Not sure whether you actually researched the subject, but what elements do you have to support the idea that a state could get away with not honouring its sovereign debt ?
Bar room banter, I suppose...

Edit : dr de, zoigberg, you beat me too ;-)

Effluent Man 2nd Sep 2019 12:37

Not stumping up would probably prompt three hour lunch breaks amongst Calais douaniers.

Fly Aiprt 2nd Sep 2019 12:37


Originally Posted by zoigberg (Post 10559988)
The price for coming to the negotiation table will be as it is now. 30 bn, backstop, and very likely some other things on top.

Fisheries agreements, for instance...

zoigberg 2nd Sep 2019 12:40

Hmmm. For instance....surely not???

zoigberg 2nd Sep 2019 12:41

Freedom of movement?? Surely not.

IcePack 2nd Sep 2019 12:43

I often wonder why reporters never ask the remainers “why would a no deal Brexit be so bad, in the long term” ie once trade has settled, we should be able to source goods from outside the EU at competitive prices etc.
on the same note why don’t they ask the Brexiters “ what are the disadvantages of remaining in the EU?”
It is about time the public had a briefing from both sides or would that mean politicians would be shown to be trying to pull the wool over the population for some hidden agendas.

zoigberg 2nd Sep 2019 12:43

Best way out of this mess is parliament get the original deal passed quickly..........

zoigberg 2nd Sep 2019 12:48


Originally Posted by IcePack (Post 10560016)
I often wonder why reporters never ask the remainers “why would a no deal Brexit be so bad, in the long term” ie once trade has settled, we should be able to source goods from outside the EU at competitive prices etc.
on the same note why don’t they ask the Brexiters “ what are the disadvantages of remaining in the EU?”
It is about time the public had a briefing from both sides or would that mean politicians would be shown to be trying to pull the wool over the population for some hidden agendas.

Icepack. An interesting point. I voted remain, but was recently asked in a poll whether we should leave the EU, and I said yes (because that was the referendum result). However, leaving without a deal is not a good idea as it means we have NO trading agreement with our nearest neighbours, and they will still be able to dictate the terms of our trade.
long term, it might not be so bad, but short term the damage could be alleviated by leaving with an agreement

dr dre 2nd Sep 2019 13:06


Originally Posted by IcePack (Post 10560016)
I often wonder why reporters never ask the remainers “why would a no deal Brexit be so bad, in the long term” ie once trade has settled, we should be able to source goods from outside the EU at competitive prices etc.

Cost of transportation and convenience for one thing. The advantage of 500 million consumers in wealthy nations on your doorstep only a short drive or train ride away. The advantage of positioning yourself as the capital for English speaking services within those 500 million people.

And even hardcore No deal Brexiteers like JRM are saying the “long term” will be about 50 years before the UK sees any apparent benefit:

Jacob Rees-Mogg Says It Could Take 50 Years To Reap The Benefits Of Brexit

Yes, there are other nations on the planet but they won’t automatically be clambering over themselves to write trade agreements with the UK that are greatly in the UK’s favour. And don’t forget the EU, with the benefits of scale and more diverse economies may be able to offer those third party nations much better deals than the UK can. The UK will have to compete with the EU on the global market.


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