Here’s a quote from a speech which was first recorded on 19th June. Two and a half months ago, before BJ was anointed.

“This is why serious players in Brussels and certain capitals have concluded, as have I, that we are now rather likely to be headed for a breakdown to “no deal”.
The cynical amongst them remark that the best political route to “no deal”, given that the current Commons evidently won’t vote for it, is to demand the revision of the Withdrawal Agreement replacing the backstop with the so-called “alternative arrangements” set out in the Brady and Malthouse amendments, the handling of which so grievously damaged the previous Prime Minister’s reputation in capitals earlier in the year.
Once that proposal is duly rejected - which it will be - you say you have been rebuffed by the intransigent, faceless technocrats of Brussels and thwarted by a Parliament dominated by Remainers. And you have teed up an election in which the Conservative manifesto seeks public backing for the proposition that we either get those alternative arrangements in lieu of the backstop or we go to “no deal”. Within weeks”

In short, the Eu is expecting a no deal. They are rather unworried about it as they are well aware of the repercussions of the U.K. no longer having ANY form of trade agreement with their nearest neighbours.

You do realise that attempts to cross the channel illegally in either direction would continue whether we were in the EU or not?

You do realise the EU is 7x economically stronger than the UK and can easily impose its own measures on the UK if it refuses to pay the money it’s legally oblidged to spend?

High tariffs, restrictions on importation of critical goods, restictions on work visas of UK citizens, restrictions on British carriers using EU airspace, denying British retirees in the EU pensions and free healthcare, not fulfilling any EU obligations to the UK etc.

When you’re 7x as large you can impose a lot of hardships on an unruly child, and ones that’ll quickly cost far more than £30 billion.

it doesn’t worry then greatly. The thinking is that we will need to have some/any kind of trade agreement with the EU. The price for coming to the negotiation table will be as it is now. 30 bn, backstop, and very likely some other things on top.
in the meantime our exports to the EU will be subject to tarriffs, (in the opposite direction we are likely to maintain tariff-free), and the EU will decide the economic framework within which we will be able to operate. Example, Notice to Stakeholders in Aviation.
They will make the rules for us.

drdre you beat me to it

Not stumping up would probably prompt three hour lunch breaks amongst Calais douaniers.

Hmmm. For instance....surely not???

Freedom of movement?? Surely not.

I often wonder why reporters never ask the remainers “why would a no deal Brexit be so bad, in the long term” ie once trade has settled, we should be able to source goods from outside the EU at competitive prices etc.
on the same note why don’t they ask the Brexiters “ what are the disadvantages of remaining in the EU?”
It is about time the public had a briefing from both sides or would that mean politicians would be shown to be trying to pull the wool over the population for some hidden agendas.

Best way out of this mess is parliament get the original deal passed quickly..........

Icepack. An interesting point. I voted remain, but was recently asked in a poll whether we should leave the EU, and I said yes (because that was the referendum result). However, leaving without a deal is not a good idea as it means we have NO trading agreement with our nearest neighbours, and they will still be able to dictate the terms of our trade.
long term, it might not be so bad, but short term the damage could be alleviated by leaving with an agreement

Cost of transportation and convenience for one thing. The advantage of 500 million consumers in wealthy nations on your doorstep only a short drive or train ride away. The advantage of positioning yourself as the capital for English speaking services within those 500 million people.

And even hardcore No deal Brexiteers like JRM are saying the “long term” will be about 50 years before the UK sees any apparent benefit:

Jacob Rees-Mogg Says It Could Take 50 Years To Reap The Benefits Of Brexit

Yes, there are other nations on the planet but they won’t automatically be clambering over themselves to write trade agreements with the UK that are greatly in the UK’s favour. And don’t forget the EU, with the benefits of scale and more diverse economies may be able to offer those third party nations much better deals than the UK can. The UK will have to compete with the EU on the global market.